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psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Hannibal Rex posted:

Somehow John McCain returned

You get runner up for folks coming back from the (almost) dead to offer terrible takes on Iran:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/28/the-west-may-now-have-no-option-but-to-attack-iran/

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psydude
Apr 1, 2008

2024 is off to a hell of a start.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Crab Dad posted:

What is the holy gently caress. Man I hope he has good people caring for him.

I'm going to assume (hope) that whatever state department psychologist interviewed him after his release picked up on the laundry list of red flags.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

golden bubble posted:

There are always big enough deals large corporate deals to make the news, but small investors have always been the majority of housing investors, and always have done so. When it comes to total homes bought, small investors (10 or less houses) bought over ten times as much as institutional investors did (1000+ total owned houses) this year, and have consistently done so basically every year.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/no-wall-street-investors-havent-bought-44-of-homes-this-year/

And these big institutional investors don't even win all the time. Remember when there was a massive panic over Zillow and Redfin hording houses in 2018? Well, both Zillow and Redfin got owned so hard in 2021-23 and lost so much money on housing investment that both companies closed their entire iBuying housing investment divisions, and sold off their houses.

Yeah even progressives that study land use and real estate tend to dispute the notion that institutional investors are responsible for housing prices being where they are:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/housing-crisis-hedge-funds-private-equity-scapegoat/672839/

The uncomfortable reality is that there's no incentive for homeowners (families or institutional investors) to support policies that lower the prices of homes, including large-scale development and high-density/multi-unit buildings. Because nobody who bought a house for a certain amount (with most of it likely financed) wants to be underwater on their basis or their mortgage. It's also kind of taken as a given in the US (and UK) that home ownership is effectively a form of wealth creation/a nest egg for retirement. In countries with relatively stable housing prices, like Germany and Japan, home ownership typically isn't viewed as an investment and renters aren't second-class citizens.

psydude fucked around with this message at 23:37 on Jan 5, 2024

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

Consumer goods are way, way cheaper. Consider a phone from the 1950s - it's enough bakelite to knock out a large mammal and would probably survive most major natural disasters. But it also cost about $500 in today's money, while the feature equivalent piece of crap polypropylene phone now is like $15. You can get a new one every year for the next quarter century and still come out ahead. Or you can get a $500 smartphone that would basically be magic back then. And if you still want to spend $500 on a basic landline phone, it's probably some bespoke thing that blows the 1950s version out of the water and has parts custom machined by an artisan worker who put their name on it.

There's a lot of the same thing with homes. There's more labor involved so the costs aren't as flexible, but engineered lumber especially means a lot less material and building time goes into a house today. And people prefer homes with more open space and windows and lower construction costs, so that's what happens. This especially makes sense in the commercial market, where profits are rarely measured decades out. The technology is there to make better things at the older cost, but the incentives aren't.

We worked with an architect a few years back for some renovations and he explained that the quality of materials and the labor category of the workers has a much bigger impact on cost and outcome than people realize. Hiring a master carpenter and plumber to install high quality finishings will obviously yield a longer lasting, nicer result, but can increase the price 2-3 times beyond what you'd pay at Home Depot and hiring cut-rate contractors that rely on day laborers. Most mass-produced housing relies on the latter, since they're looking to keep costs down as much as possible. It's also why a lot of homes built by large developers begin to fall apart after a couple of years.

psydude fucked around with this message at 10:07 on Jan 7, 2024

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Earlier sightings of the panel turned out to be the door of a 1976 Pinto.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Soul Dentist posted:

But the oath is decades old! Which means it could be a result of Bush v Gore lol

It's a McCarthy era thing that includes a stanza saying you aren't a communist. It was apparently struck down in a supreme court case and is no longer a requirement, but it's obviously a soft-ball win for candidates to show they aren't going to overthrow the government so everyone still agrees to it.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Wasabi the J posted:

I feel like there's a pattern about Russia, the right wing culture wars, and brics member states that also being majorly fossil fuels dependant that I'm not smart enough to fully grasp.

https://www.miningreview.com/coal/the-realities-of-coal-demand-in-brics/

https://x.com/VuslatBayoglu/status/1734269542648398084?s=20

https://x.com/VuslatBayoglu/status/1732454290218787166?s=20

Iran just got BRICS membership.

Argentina, which I believe has some oil, declined joining BRICS recently but they apparently have a loose cannon in the presidency so who knows what their politics will bear as tensions on Israel-Palestine-Iran get worse.

The BRICs aren't really to the point of operating under a general geopolitical consensus like Europe and the US/Canada are. To take your I/P example, India is squarely behind Israel (which aligns with Modi's domestic agenda of Hindu nationalism) and is contending with Iranian hostilities in the Indian ocean; China is neutral (needing to court MEA for political and economic reasons while also wanting to maintain their own campaign to crush the Uyghurs); Russia is gleefully playing both sides against each other for their benefit in both Ukraine and building economic ties within MEA; and Brazil is somewhat supporting the Palestinians.

Even putting that aside, India sees China as a major threat and has formed a defense partnership with the US, Australia, and Japan. Brazil maintains close diplomatic and economic ties to the US and is taking an aggressive posture against Venezuela's attempts to annex Guyana (knowing the US will back them diplomatically and possibly militarily), which is in direct opposition to Russia's military and economic support for Maduro's regime. And the EU, US, SK, and Japan are all China's four biggest trading partners (Russia is 10th, Brazil is 11th, and India is 13th). Being in the BRICs club does allow them to benefit from bypassing western sanctions and red-tape when feasible, but it's more a marriage of economic convenience rather than a unified geopolitical bloc.

psydude fucked around with this message at 18:45 on Jan 8, 2024

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Crab Dad posted:

Oh my bad I thought we fought a war over this.

Anyways large farmers are the biggest mooches and are template for modern corporate welfare.

The average German farm is 150 acres, which is less than .25 square miles. We aren't talking about massive operations here.

psydude fucked around with this message at 22:41 on Jan 8, 2024

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Crab Dad posted:

People need food to survive. We can’t stop buying food. If subsidies existing are the only way farmers can survive then I suspect your economy is on shaky ground. You may have to increase import taxes to make their produce competitive.

I’d much rather the people get direct assistance as opposed to the farmers.

I don't think you can really compare North American farming with European farming, both in scale and in mentality. Farming is a big industry in Germany and the local farmers have to compete with much cheaper crops from countries in Eastern and Southern Europe. The higher density of German cities also means that agricultural land is found much closer to major city centers (I lived at the end of an U-Bahn line and two buildings down from me was a literal barn that housed a tractor) and so there isn't as much of an urban/rural divide as you'd find in the US and Canada. So follows that Germans (at least the ones I knew) are very supportive of the farming industry: where I lived, most of the stores tended to source as much of their produce as possible from domestic farmers to the point where even bigger chains like Rewe and Edeke effectively only carried seasonal produce, with a few exceptions.

e: Which is to say I'm not surprised that farm subsidies have more popular support in Germany than in the US.

psydude fucked around with this message at 00:14 on Jan 9, 2024

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Crab Dad posted:

But not that supportive if the elected officials are cutting their welfare feedbag.

I suspect this stems from the current budget crisis, but I might be wrong. The government tried to reallocate unused COVID funds to plug a budget deficit only to have this swatted down by the supreme court. The German constitution effectively prohibits the government from running a deficit (Germans are allergic to debt, along with noise and modern technology) and so they're having to slash and burn a lot of spending.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Crab Dad posted:

All this talk of Germans slash and burning and needing more land is making me nervous.

I learned today that one of my German colleagues just bought a house in Poland and had to stop myself from making a Lebensraum joke.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

FrozenVent posted:

We just had a multiple-months long teacher strike, and people support the teachers because people understand that the teachers aren’t the problem, the problem is the provincial government treating them like poo poo.

Y’all got a cultural problem if people can’t understand that.

A well-advertised strike with clearly defined goals called after multiple rounds of negotiations and is a bit different than protesters suddenly shutting down an interstate highway.

psydude fucked around with this message at 09:38 on Jan 9, 2024

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

ded posted:

so you want to dictate how people are allowed to protest things?

only do it on these sidewalks citizen!

The conversation is about public perceptions of protests and their effect on public support for their cause, not what protesters should be allowed to do.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

OddObserver posted:

I suspect there are less guns involved, even if they are comparably out of their religion's mainstream. The Taliban probably has worse calendar game, too.

Pfft. The Taliban defeated the US military. These guys couldn't even handle the cops.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Platystemon posted:

How has MTG gone nearly fifty years on this Earth without realizing that having a large penis is generally considered a mark of pride?

She ran a crossfit gym.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Crab Dad posted:

Why do they constantly refer to him as “President” in legal filings?

Maybe he had his first name legally changed to President so that he could be president for life.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

MrMojok posted:

Absolutely serious post here, and I ask this because I feel like I can’t trust the stories put out by either side.

Is the border crisis under this administration really a thing? I could have sworn I saw someone ITT recently saying that it absolutely was, but I can’t recall who, or if I’m even remembering the right thread.

What is the real story here?

There's two things going on here and the right has managed to get everyone to believe they're the same.

Most of the migrants are following the legal process to claim asylum in the US, which involves surrendering to a CPB officer at a port of entry, being processed in an immigration facility, receiving a court date to hear their case, and then being released to stay in the US until their case is decided.

Trump deliberately hamstrung the process by under-resourcing the agencies responsible for processing asylum seekers, failing to back-fill immigration judges, and doing crazy poo poo like child separations.

The Biden administration has continued some of these policies and rolled back others. It could be doing more, but the situation isn't inherently different than it was under Trump.

The second thing is illegal immigration, which has always ebbed and flowed according to the season (many people immigrate illegally from Mexico to harvest crops and then return home after) and the economic strife in Latin America. Republicans want everyone to believe that ALL of the migrants are crossing the border illegally, but the rate of illegal immigration has largely held steady over time.

What's also not helping is that the right wing has also managed to convince many on the left that the situation is about illegal immigration, when it's not. It's about legal immigration using the asylum system.

psydude fucked around with this message at 01:26 on Jan 13, 2024

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Wasn't the treaty also supposed to guarantee Hong Kong's legislative and judicial independence for 50 years or something like that?

Everyone I've ever met from Hong Kong is very adamant that they are from Hong Kong, not China.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Acebuckeye13 posted:

Literally every shred of evidence since the Gulf War has borne out that most US weapon systems, though insanely expensive boondoggles, generally work extremely well. Our strategy might be terrible, our goals nonsensical, and our conduct questionable, but the weapons themselves are generally both reasonably functional and terrifyingly lethal. AEGIS certainly has a pretty stellar combat record as far as I'm aware, and has shot down every missile and/or airliner pointed at it since the '80s.

e: Like, sure, there's always the chance that something goes wrong and the missile gets lucky. But it's certainly not something I would bet on. I certainly wouldn't say the guys who shot the missile are "delusional" — they may very well have expected the missile to get shot down. But I would have to question their intelligence and foresight if they were seriously anticipating any other result.

It's probably just a PR stunt on the part of the Houthis to show they're still in the fight after last week's airstrikes. They haven't launched any further complex attacks since the US and UK strikes, which would indicate that their capabilities have been degraded, but they're doing this for a domestic and regional media audience who don't know or care.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Elviscat posted:

hopefully insurance will take care of the property damage

Unless everyone pays for comprehensive with no deductible or that guy is rich, I have bad news.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

CommieGIR posted:

Iowa picks losers. They picked Huckabee for president previously.

And Ted Cruz. And Rick Santorum.

I mean, Trump is going to win the Republican nomination, but yeah, Iowa has nothing to do with it.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

M_Gargantua posted:

That just makes their incompetency and failure to invest their lucrative public-private partnership money and tax incentives into maintaining critical infrastructure sound even worse.

US power utilities are incentivized to spend on big CAPEX upgrades instead of maintenance because they're allowed to embed the costs in rate increases. And most of the IRA's money was also aimed at expanding renewable capacity without providing much for maintenance for distribution or transmission companies. Other than tax deductions for certain maintenance costs (like replacing existing parts), there's no structural or programmatic incentive for utilities to spend a lot on it. Which is unfortunate.

psydude fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Jan 16, 2024

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Arrath posted:

Maybe I'm naive but it seems wild that "continued ability to deliver the product they exist sell" isn't incentive enough to pay for maintaining their infrastructure. What about levying punitive penalties when systemic lapses in maintenance lead to service outages or town ravaging wildfires?

NERC (or the regional reliability corporation) can impose sanctions and fines if they're found to have failed to properly implement or follow their standards, but that only applies to interstate transmission operators (BTW this is why Texas isn't connected to the north american power grid). Otherwise it's up to state power commissions to enforce compliance for local power distribution. And of course those entities are stretched thin and unable to cover everything, so operators make out in the end even if they occasionally get slapped with a fine.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Quackles posted:

Why are there so many small wars popping up right now??

They're almost all connected to Iran in some way. Their most recent strikes in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan have ostensibly been retaliation for the funeral bombing a few weeks back (among some other smaller attacks on police checkpoints and government buildings), but they're also facing prolonged domestic strife as well as a lack of a clear heir to Khameini that's probably forcing them to try to save face. It's also not entirely clear that they even control their own proxy forces anymore - their strategy is typically to try and isolate adversaries (Israel, Saudi Arabia, the US, the Kurds). The Houthis attacking shipping in the Red Sea has done the opposite of that: it's generated a multi-national effort to contain the problem while also keeping Russia and China on the sidelines.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

lightpole posted:

He did this and it was struck down. This is rather telling in how even the good stuff he has tried or even gotten through is largely forgotten, poo poo'd for not going far enough, or just flat out ignored.

I know someone who keeps complaining that Biden didn't do anything on student loans. They maintain this even when confronted with all of the evidence to the contrary. In his view, because he didn't personally benefit from it, it amounts to a broken promise.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

ded posted:

the area i live is a giant planned community full of houses. there are some low income apartments as well as "regular" priced ones along side vast tracks of single family homes and schools that go from kindergarten to community college.

anyone making minimum wage or slightly above can maybe afford the low income apartments, with a 1 year or longer wait time.

build more housing is not always the answer


edit : oh and the "value" of these houses has somehow doubled in the past 16 years. 350k build price condos are now 600-700k and 700k single family homes are now being sold at 1.3m or higher. these are conservative numbers i've seen fliers from agents claiming sold value much higher

Wouldn't building more apartments, particularly mixed income apartments, help address the waiting list issue you mentioned?

The area you described sounds a lot like either Reston, VA or Columbia, MD. Both have struggled to handle the massive demand for housing in recent years. Columbia has approved more high density housing in the emerging downtown area, but Reston seems to have paused it.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

ded posted:

cant build more in an area that is covered in housing already. this whole area has no open land that can be built on anymore.

Brownfield development is still an option. As the poster above me mentioned, it's usually a zoning issue. In most places, if you want to build or modify to more than a duplex or triplex, you have to get a variance for multi-family housing unless it was already zoned in certain ways (even most residential zoning doesn't permit multi-family) and a lot of land that's ideal for brownfield development is zoned for light industrial or commercial instead of residential/mixed use. And as you can imagine, there's a million ways for people to stop this or delay it to the point of oblivion.

psydude fucked around with this message at 21:38 on Jan 24, 2024

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

OddObserver posted:

Ideally you would want lots of both public and private housing (edit: UK was doing well when it had both, while Soviet Union could never keep up with public construction only even though it's one of the areas where they actually put in an effort).... but public housing costs $$$. Whether getting support for that or for breaking down the broken system where we artificially limit supply to enrich existing home owners would be easier is a subject for debate.

(Also concentration of poverty sucks; percent of affordable set aside for construction is probably better than apartments-just-for-poor-people).

The UK still has public housing and does a decent job of keeping it refurbished. The problem here is that restrictive planning practices make it impossible to build anything, public or private.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

CBJSprague24 posted:

https://twitter.com/RollingStone/status/1750231508525236286

"No admittance without 3 X minimum beyond this point"'


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK7kjl_gHds&t=27s

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Discussion Quorum posted:

Suddenly remembering that brief period of time when Fox News tried to replace "suicide bomber" with "homicide bomber" in the common parlance.

Seems like a square/rectangle thing.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

I got prescribed Percocet and all it did was make me irritable.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Wasabi the J posted:

Musk testified during the compensation trial in November 2022 that the money would be used to finance interplanetary travel.

We did it! $56 billion went into a black hole!

Pfft. That's only half of what the space race cost (adjusted for inflation). You ain't getting to another planet for probably less than a cool $200bn.

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psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Baconroll posted:

Yep about that,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Harry_Dunn

TLDR - Family member of CIA agent in the UK drives on the wrong side of the road and kills someone. Flees the country and America goes 'tough luck'. Special relationship indeed.

According to that article, the UK government told the US to fly her out. Soooo.


quote:

On 14 September, Foreign Office diplomat Neil Holland texted a US official that "It's obviously not us approving of their departure", but that, since the US was not waiving immunity, "I think you should feel able to put them on the next flight out". On 16 September, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) informed the police that the waiver had been declined and that Sacoolas had left the UK on a US Air Force aircraft. The Telegraph reported that Sacoolas left the country on a 'private' flight which likely took off from the US airbase at Mildenhall.

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