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Hogan doesn't have a chance. Biden is going to win Maryland by 33+ points on the same ballot, and there's much less split ticket voting for senators than governors. Hogan is tailor made to appeal to pundits as a "moderate" Republican former governor in a blue state near DC and will keep doing well in the polls for a while, but he has no chance. It would be like Biden winning Kentucky. Steve Bullock was a popular moderate governor in a state that's much closer than Maryland. He led in an early poll and ended up doing 6 points better than Biden.
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Apr 17, 2024 01:04
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Slickdrac posted:Hogan was pretty popular here, he won his last governor election by 10% and did an incredible job pissing off almost no one while still pushing back on Trump nonsense. The 2 people he's potentially against, one has been the head of the worst run county in the state (for a long rear end time, not specifically due to them, but it's not gotten any better), and the other is nothing but a pile of money. There is extraordinarily little chance Hogan loses. Being a centrist works when you're a governor and are effectively independent of your party affiliation for all real purposes of the power you weild. Maryland voters aren't going to be ignorant of the tenuous grasp the Dems have on the Senate, and whatever popularity that Hogan has isn't enough to be rid of that anchor. He can do all the grandstanding he wants about Trump. All it's going to do is cut him off from his own party's coffers and remind everyone that no matter what he says he's for, his very existence in the Senate will give the GOP the reins to stop any Democratic issue nationally. That's not what the "simpler times" voters are going to be sold on. They're definitely not going to cross the aisle for a senator for the first time in nearly 4 decades to have it. Again, it will be competitive, but the situation and Biden on the ballot will do him in. Xombie fucked around with this message at 03:38 on Apr 17, 2024 |
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Apr 17, 2024 03:35
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Zero_Grade posted:Georgia might be an interesting one to look at. Represented by two Republicans for most of the 21st century (who replaced conservative Democrats) and then overnight both seats turned blue. I imagine demographics and the general growth of Atlanta helped out, but I've also heard that Stacy Abrams and other activists have put in a lot of behind the scenes effort into the change. I haven't found a good in depth analysis about the situation but would certainly read one. Kemp won re-election in a walk, but Warnock won in the runoff two months later Walker is a clown, but that is some weird vote splitting
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Apr 17, 2024 04:12
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I'm just glad I'll be out of Florida before I get my hopes up that maybe Rick Scott's basement blood rituals won't work this time.
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Apr 17, 2024 07:26
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Hogan's 2 gubernatorial elections were also during midterm years. Presidential years are a whole 'nother ball of wax.
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Apr 17, 2024 15:11
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This November, Tuesday only, choose your President! The Criminal Fuhrer Wannabe Donald Trump versus Genocidal Joe Biden! A woman’s right to choose and democracy versus the lives of the Palestinian people hangs in the balance and it is up to you to decide where your morality and ethics lie! Whatta choice. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 17, 2024 15:32
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Gatts posted:This November, Tuesday only, choose your President! The Criminal Fuhrer Wannabe Donald Trump versus Genocidal Joe Biden! A woman’s right to choose and democracy versus the lives of the Palestinian people hangs in the balance and it is up to you to decide where your morality and ethics lie! You think Trump would do anything but grease the skids even more for Gaza? They're hosed either way.
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Apr 17, 2024 15:40
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Gatts posted:This November, Tuesday only, choose your President! The Criminal Fuhrer Wannabe Donald Trump versus Genocidal Joe Biden! A woman’s right to choose and democracy versus the lives of the Palestinian people hangs in the balance and it is up to you to decide where your morality and ethics lie! Also, the rights of gay people, trans people, and other minorities are at stake.. and US involvement in NATO and free trade agreements. And any and all climate action is as good as dead in the next Trump presidency. But Genocide Joe has such a nice ring to it, who cares about that stuff!
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Apr 17, 2024 15:44
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So people should ignore their concerns over the actual genocide, happening right now, because of what you predict will happen in the future? Why are gay and trans Americans more real and more human to you than Palestinians? I'm trans. My identity is not a tool for you to whip votes for Genocide Joe. Also, when did God come down from heaven and write in stone that Trump will be worse than Biden on Israel? I see no reason to believe that's the case. Trump doesn't care about anything but his public image and feeling important; that could well be more responsive to public pressure than Biden, who is a gleefully genocidal advocate for Israel and doesn't appear to care what anyone thinks. Trump, as far as I know, hasn't committed blood libel against Palestinians. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Halloween Jack fucked around with this message at 15:54 on Apr 17, 2024 |
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Apr 17, 2024 15:52
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Joe Biden fervently believes that Israelis have a right to exist that includes killing everyone else who's not his fault. Trump doesn't care that much. He'd have, by now, demanded Bibi do something for him or he'll cut off the faucet. Either way, Joe is a loving racist genocide lover and "but but but Trump will be worse" doesn't change that. Either way, we're paying for Israelis to have free healthcare and bomb children. https://twitter.com/aamer_rahman/status/1777456111618085119/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1777456111618085119¤tTweetUser=aamer_rahman Nail Rat fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Apr 17, 2024 |
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Apr 17, 2024 15:52
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Yes, the guy who declared he will be a dictator on day one for sure will be the man who responds to the popular opinion of a vocal segment of leftists.
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Apr 17, 2024 15:56
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Halloween Jack posted:So people should ignore their concerns over the actual genocide, happening right now, because of what you predict will happen in the future? Why are gay and trans Americans more real and more human to you than Palestinians? Nobody's saying this. The post that got people riled up said "A woman’s right to choose and democracy versus the lives of the Palestinian people" which implies that Trump wouldn't support the genocide. That's what people are replying to. Halloween Jack posted:I'm trans. My identity is not a tool for you to whip votes for Genocide Joe. Me too, which is one part of why I think Trump winning would be much worse than Biden. Halloween Jack posted:Also, when did God come down from heaven and write in stone that Trump will be worse than Biden on Israel? I see no reason to believe that's the case. Trump doesn't care about anything but his public image and feeling important; that could well be more responsive to public pressure than Biden, who is a gleefully genocidal advocate for Israel and doesn't appear to care what anyone thinks. Then you haven't been paying attention. Not only was Trump very close to Israel when he was president (moved the embassy to Jerusalem, etc) he's also been nothing but supportive of the ongoing genocide. His only complaint this far has been that they aren't killing people fast enough, and that they need to get on that and wrap it up. What public pressure do you think Trump is going to respond to? The MAGA base people loving love Israel. Do you think Trump is going to say "wow, protesters blocked the golden gate bridge in SF, I should really think about listening to them"?
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Apr 17, 2024 16:00
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Halloween Jack posted:So people should ignore their concerns over the actual genocide, happening right now, because of what you predict will happen in the future? Why are gay and trans Americans more real and more human to you than Palestinians? So we should ignore everything Trump has ever said he will do and has done in the past in regards to Israel to pretend he will be better? Is there any reason we should believe this fanfiction?
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Apr 17, 2024 16:01
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Halloween Jack posted:So people should ignore their concerns over the actual genocide, happening right now, because of what you predict will happen in the future? Why are gay and trans Americans more real and more human to you than Palestinians? 
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Apr 17, 2024 16:02
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Halloween Jack posted:Trump doesn't care about anything but his public image and feeling important; that could well be more responsive to public pressure than [the Democrat] It feels deeply perverse to read this and experience a wave of nostalgia for the summer of 2016, of all years, but here we are, eight years later… 
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Apr 17, 2024 16:05
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Halloween Jack posted:So people should ignore their concerns over the actual genocide, happening right now, because of what you predict will happen in the future? Why are gay and trans Americans more real and more human to you than Palestinians? I'm trans as well. I don't think that Palestinians are less real and less human, but they're half a world away and I would like for my existence to not be made illegal. I'd like to not be forcibly detransitioned/thrown into prison for simply existing/whatever other vile poo poo a Trump administration would do to me. So, I'm voting Biden. I have to look out for myself and those I care about.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:05
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Maybe it's better if trump actually tears the system down and we can try again if the lesser evil gives a country free healthcare and pays for a genocide with our tax dollars. At this point, I think our nation is a failure. There's no incrementalism vs big changes argument to be had when we're paying for an apartheid state to starve and bomb children and have free healthcare while we won't take an ambulance for fear of the costs. There is no nuance here. We are villains and the vote blue no matter who folks are like just shut up and ignore it. Eventually all 1.1 million kids in Gaza will be dead and we won't be supporting a genocide anymore I guess.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:07
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Combed Thunderclap posted:It feels deeply perverse to read this and experience a wave of nostalgia for the summer of 2016, of all years, but here we are, eight years later… It's going to be the summer of 2016 until Trump dies. Maybe it'll end if he goes to prison, too, but that's uncharted waters.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:07
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Nail Rat posted:Maybe it's better if trump actually tears the system down and we can try again if the lesser evil gives a country free healthcare and pays for a genocide with our tax dollars. "Tearing down the system and trying again" will lead to way more than 1.1 Million dead kids, this sounds incredibly callous to human life in general.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:09
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So basically, ignore the genocide that we're funding with our tax dollars. Would you have said the same in 1941, if we were giving money to Germany? I'm hoping against hope making noise will lead to some actual red lines from the Biden admin, but libs are doing the work of Genocide Joe by shouting down that Gaza isn't all that important. Also neither is us paying for Israel's free healthcare and college.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:10
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Edit: nm
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Apr 17, 2024 16:12
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Nail Rat posted:So basically, ignore the genocide that we're funding with our tax dollars. In this analogy you are arguing that we should vote for Father Coughlin
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Apr 17, 2024 16:12
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DeadlyMuffin posted:Why do you think the fascist is the lesser evil? I think our nation and system has failed and trying to pretend that it's alright when we pay for a genocide is wrong. I don't think trump is the lesser evil but I find the distinction rather unimportant at this point. Biden goes around congress to help Israel kill children. That is a fact. edit: and then trots out Matthew Miller to laugh and smirk and roll his eyes about it Nail Rat fucked around with this message at 16:16 on Apr 17, 2024 |
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Apr 17, 2024 16:14
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I still can't help but lol that the U is misaligned
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Apr 17, 2024 16:17
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The argument of "no matter which side you pick the genocide will continue" just seems like a post-accelerationist argument to me, or at the very least, the staunchest defense of republican voters I think I've seen on this forum.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:17
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The JLOTS pier is still en route too.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:20
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Trump the dove will save us
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Apr 17, 2024 16:21
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Nail Rat posted:I think our nation and system has failed and trying to pretend that it's alright when we pay for a genocide is wrong. I don't think trump is the lesser evil but I find the distinction rather unimportant at this point. Biden goes around congress to help Israel kill children. That is a fact. lol if this is all objectively true, then who the gently caress cares? If your view is objectively true, then we're all already WELL into the Cool Zone and there's no return, at least not in our lifetime without a bunch of massive war, so go get high and watch a movie, poo poo.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:23
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Who cares if we pay for a genocide, lol, lmao is at least an honest white liberal take, so good on you there imagine being triggered by paying taxes and those taxes being used to kill children, lol, U MAD BRO (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 17, 2024 16:25
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mutata posted:lol if this is all objectively true, then who the gently caress cares? If your view is objectively true, then we're all already WELL into the Cool Zone and there's no return, at least not in our lifetime without a bunch of massive war, so go get high and watch a movie, poo poo. This is literally where I'm at lol. Enjoy the treats and bread and circuses and loved ones for as long as you can. The world is and will remain a brutal place for a lot of people, and if you are not one of those people, be grateful and appreciate what you have.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:27
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Nail Rat posted:I think our nation and system has failed and trying to pretend that it's alright when we pay for a genocide is wrong. I don't think trump is the lesser evil but I find the distinction rather unimportant at this point. Biden goes around congress to help Israel kill children. That is a fact. I think the fundamental disconnect that happens whenever this topic comes up is the idea that a vote, that an election, is evidence of 'support'. It is not. When we get to the actual presidential election, you make a choice between two options. This choice should be informed by pragmatism and politics. If you want to end the genocide in Gaza, by all means, please follow your morals - but you'll affect far more change by protesting, pressuring your local politicians, and donating money to relevant groups than by withholding your vote. I think because our electoral choice is basically a foregone requirement in our society we see it as our most relevant way to affect all social change and it isn't. You can vote for Biden on Tuesday and continue protesting him on Wednesday because that's the nature of our system. I don't think that's great, but you aren't supporting a genocide by doing so, you're making a choice between two options which, as you point out, may be fundamentally broken. But the way to affect that change is by organizing, protest, etc. Voting for Trump will not 'overturn the system'. There is no way out of this mess by voting, you don't get to mash a reset button with your vote because your vote just doesn't determine that.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:27
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Mendrian posted:I think the fundamental disconnect that happens whenever this topic comes up is the idea that a vote, that an election, is evidence of 'support'. It is not. When we get to the actual presidential election, you make a choice between two options. This choice should be informed by pragmatism and politics. If you want to end the genocide in Gaza, by all means, please follow your morals - but you'll affect far more change by protesting, pressuring your local politicians, and donating money to relevant groups than by withholding your vote. I think because our electoral choice is basically a foregone requirement in our society we see it as our most relevant way to affect all social change and it isn't. You can vote for Biden on Tuesday and continue protesting him on Wednesday because that's the nature of our system. I don't think that's great, but you aren't supporting a genocide by doing so, you're making a choice between two options which, as you point out, may be fundamentally broken. But the way to affect that change is by organizing, protest, etc. Voting for Trump will not 'overturn the system'. There is no way out of this mess by voting, you don't get to mash a reset button with your vote because your vote just doesn't determine that. Well my vote doesn't actually matter because I'm in a blue state and we have a system where extra votes don't matter, just that you have enough in this arbitrary geographical area and Biden won't lose there So basically I have no say in what happens no matter what.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:29
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Kalli posted:The argument of "no matter which side you pick the genocide will continue" just seems like a post-accelerationist argument to me, or at the very least, the staunchest defense of republican voters I think I've seen on this forum. Are you interested in whether it's true or just in what kind of person might say it? American domestic politics are so responsive to the military-industrial complex, and to philosemitic religious movements, that it's an enormous challenge for Pro-Palestine voters to get a major Presidential nominee who's remotely willing to publicly break with Israel even when Israel is prosecuting a horrific slaughter in Palestine. There are two men who have a cumulative 90% chance of being inaugurated President in 2025, maybe a dozen people who have a cumulative 99% chance, and every last one of them, out of either heartfelt Zionism or political self-preservation instinct, is willing to let Netanyahu's state conduct a genocide in Palestine. This is horrifying and disgusting - to deal with it, we have to be honest about it. That honesty precludes overlooking Joe Biden's enabling of a genocide by saying "oh but Trump would be worse." And it precludes writing dumb fanfiction about how Trump would shut Netanyahu down or bring the American Empire to collapse. The 2024 election will not elect a President willing to end the genocide in Palestine. Anyone serious about ending the genocide in Palestine has to acknowledge this tactical reality so we understand what we can do, and have to do, to end the genocide. Whether you interpret these facts as pro-accelerationist or pro-Republican or whatever, they are facts that have to be dealt with. Believing that you can end the genocide in Palestine by voting the right way is as delusional and dangerous as believing that you can cure a loved one's cancer by voting the right way. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Apr 17, 2024 |
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Apr 17, 2024 16:32
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Combed Thunderclap posted:It feels deeply perverse to read this and experience a wave of nostalgia for the summer of 2016, of all years, but here we are, eight years later… I think of it as the Pokémon Go summer. Just me and my ol' big fluffy dog walking around grabbing Pokémon and meeting other people out doing the same and everyone was friendly and happy. I miss that dog.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:32
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Nail Rat posted:Who cares if we pay for a genocide, lol, lmao is at least an honest white liberal take, so good on you there Not remotely what I said, but you're spiraling, so I genuinely and sincerely recommend therapy, or third party help in any way. It helped me get to a place where at least some of the time I can have a functional day without breaking down into soggy ball of terror and depression. SA is NOT the place for healthy versions of this conversation you're trying to have. It's actually a bad place for this poo poo that will make your mental health worse.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:41
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Nail Rat posted:Maybe it's better if trump actually tears the system down and we can try again if the lesser evil gives a country free healthcare and pays for a genocide with our tax dollars. 
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Apr 17, 2024 16:44
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Halloween Jack posted:Also, when did God come down from heaven and write in stone that Trump will be worse than Biden on Israel? I see no reason to believe that's the case. Trump doesn't care about anything but his public image and feeling important; that could well be more responsive to public pressure than Biden, who is a gleefully genocidal advocate for Israel and doesn't appear to care what anyone thinks. Trump, as far as I know, hasn't committed blood libel against Palestinians. This is not the first time this has come up and every single time people put together a litany of quotes from Trump about supporting Israel just killing all of them, it goes unaddressed or handwaved away with "Well that's just Trump saying things he just says whatever". Do you think Trump would be better to Palestine? Don't give me the "well the future is unknowable" coward answer that happened the last time this came up, give a concrete answer. Yes or no? Why?
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Apr 17, 2024 16:46
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mutata posted:lol if this is all objectively true, then who the gently caress cares? If your view is objectively true, then we're all already WELL into the Cool Zone and there's no return, at least not in our lifetime without a bunch of massive war, so go get high and watch a movie, poo poo. There is an argument that if you hold material support for an ongoing genocide to be your primary deciding factor, and effectively must have a binary choice between two supporters of an ongoing genocide, the active choice one should make is to flip a coin in the voting booth and go by that result.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:49
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US libs to Palestinians
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Apr 17, 2024 16:53
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Gerund posted:There is an argument that if you hold material support for an ongoing genocide to be your primary deciding factor, and effectively must have a binary choice between two supporters of an ongoing genocide, the active choice one should make is to flip a coin in the voting booth and go by that result. "Primary deciding factor" implies there might be secondary deciding factors, and in that case it would make more sense to say "there's a tie in my primary deciding factor, I'll find who's best in the secondary deciding factor and go with that." If it's your only deciding factor, and it's fair enough to say that genocide is so obscene that to have any other decision factor even secondarily is abhorrent, then yeah the decision is arbitrary and the coin is as good as anything else.
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Apr 17, 2024 16:54
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