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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1780743789390233867 If the voters don't know who Mayorkas is, that's a bad thing, because it means they're going to get all their information on who Mayorkas is from GOP campaign ads. Why does that matter? Because polls consistently suggest that the border (specifically, Democrats being too soft on it and letting too many immigrants in) is one of the issues voters care most about in 2024, and the GOP has been putting quite a bit of effort to make Mayorkas the face of that. The big mistake this writer makes is assuming that vulnerable Dems are going to be hit because of their vote here - the GOP was going to use the Mayorkas stuff against vulnerable Dems no matter how it played out.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:06
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Bodyholes posted:You never see the far right argue against electoralism. You never see the far right sit back and let their opponents win as a 4d chess play. They are committed to probing every avenue they can to further their goals and the last 40 years are a testament to the effectiveness of their tenacity. Why would the conservatives argue against electoralism? Both parties are sprinting to the right. Turning Palestinian children into pink mist, locking brown people in cages, and Reaganite economics are wholly bipartisan.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:11
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Neat Bee posted:Why would the conservatives argue against electoralism? Both parties are sprinting to the right. Sprinting to the right compared to what, how are the democrats today more to the right than 5 10 or even 20 years ago?
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Apr 18, 2024 17:14
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Neat Bee posted:Why would the conservatives argue against electoralism? Both parties are sprinting to the right. If there's no difference in the parties, then why are all of the conservatives voting Republican while, at the same time, calling Democrats a bunch of sex trafficking degenerates feasting on the blood of children?
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Apr 18, 2024 17:15
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Neat Bee posted:and Reaganite economics are wholly bipartisan. This one is changing globally. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/...ce=articleShare Industrial policy is back and is no longer a bad word anymore. IRA and CHIPS are the reason.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:19
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Main Paineframe posted:If the voters don't know who Mayorkas is, that's a bad thing, because it means they're going to get all their information on who Mayorkas is from GOP campaign ads. Running a full hearing and not removing him from office gives the exact same results, but with more sound bites to use. I guess the Democrats could have caved and removed him from office and still gotten the exact same weak on the border commercials.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:28
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Willa Rogers posted:I posted the Baltimore Sun story today bc it was a deep dive into the numbers; all I posted the other day were the margins by which Hogan was winning. None of that negates all of the problems with the poll, namely that there isn't an actual Democratic candidate yet. This is on top of the issues with polls right now in general, where it's too far ahead of the election and they are done by phone poll and will therefore skew toward "people who pick up their phone for anonymous numbers". quote:I also found it interesting that the Black candidate on the Democratic side isn't leading by a notable margin among Black voters. Why? She's a "County Executive", while Trone is a US House rep. She isn't a particularly strong candidate for US Senate. quote:Yeah, I think he's a shoo-in too, especially given his prior approvals as governor by Democratic voters (and their votes!) as well as the huge margin I mentioned. Again, this would be a shoe-in for governor, but not Senate. People who want a Democratic Senate are going to coalesce around a centrist with a D next to their name, not a centrist with an R next to their name. Party matters far more when running for Senate than Governor, because of the fact that it actually does matter. "Hogan will hand the US Senate to the Republicans and Donald Trump" is going to be an easy refrain for the Dems, and hard for Hogan to fight against because it will be objectively true. Xombie fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Apr 18, 2024 |
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Apr 18, 2024 17:29
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https://twitter.com/haleytalbotcnn/status/1780996275783061760 Looks like they're going to do it, probably because the Dems have been signaling that they'd protect Johnson over Ukraine aid, so they would be able to whine about it without facing actual consequences of another House speaker race. https://twitter.com/haleytalbotcnn/status/1780994053833740364 Tubby? I'd call Gaetz a lot of things: a groomer, a pedophile, a narcissist wrecker, a piece of poo poo sociopath, but not tubby. zoux fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Apr 18, 2024 |
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Apr 18, 2024 17:32
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socialsecurity posted:Sprinting to the right compared to what, how are the democrats today more to the right than 5 10 or even 20 years ago? Immigration for one thing. The evaporation of M4All. Acceptance of conservative courts steering the country backwards. The deaths of Great Society Dems in the aughts, a decade that began with Clinton doing his final touches of implementing the DLC's plan to shift the Democractic Party right thru deregulation domestically while pushing strident militarism abroad (i.e. Plan Columbia) and ended with Obama complimenting Reagan as he oversaw the collapse of the black middle class because he refused to intervene to stop foreclosures during the GFC. I can go on.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:36
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zoux posted:Looks like they're going to do it, probably because the Dems have been signaling that they'd protect Johnson over Ukraine aid, so they would be able to whine about it without facing actual consequences of another House speaker race. It would be fun for them to pull this promise after he inevitably backstabs them. Isn't that what happened to McCarthy?
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Apr 18, 2024 17:38
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Xombie posted:It would be fun for them to pull this promise after he inevitably backstabs them. Isn't that what happened to McCarthy? My understanding is that McCarthy was a double dealing liar who made many many enemies on both sides of the aisle and while Johnson's politics are just as bad - if not worse- he's been straightforward with the D caucus. But that's just what I've read from ~political insiders~ on twitter. I think the rug-pull thing is that Pelosi said in an interview that she'd back him up in the event the HFC tried a powerplay but then she didn't, I'm not sure if there was a commitment made by other members in that regard.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:40
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Rookersh posted:Biden has committed to rebuilding Gaza and brought on a bunch of EU/Arab States to help the Palestinians. "Roosevelt has committed to rebuilding Moscow!" The crowd cheers as we send more Lend-Lease to Germany.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:41
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Shageletic posted:Immigration for one thing. The evaporation of M4All. Acceptance of conservative courts steering the country backwards. The deaths of Great Society Dems in the aughts, a decade that began with Clinton doing his final touches of implementing the DLC's plan to shift the Democractic Party right thru deregulation domestically while pushing strident militarism abroad (i.e. Plan Columbia) and ended with Obama complimenting Reagan as he oversaw the collapse of the black middle class because he refused to intervene to stop foreclosures during the GFC. I can go on. So by sprinting to the right you mean back in the 90s and there has been no left wing movement on any front since then? I'm not sure how I should take one president making an offhand comment about another president as any sort of actual policy and not just something you are making out to be much more than it really is. Hell define "right wing" maybe we have wildly different definitions. M4All hasn't evaporated and was at least close to passing in 2008, but there hasn't been enough of a majority since to ever try.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:44
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Why do we keep letting Republicans define "the border crisis"? And why don't we fact check their claims? This seems like easy win stuff to me, especially after seeing elections cycles go side-by-side with migrant caravan concerns for a few decades now.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:44
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SpeakSlow posted:Why do we keep letting Republicans define "the border crisis"? And why don't we fact check their claims? Because the Republicans own a large amount of the media out there, their claims are fact checked but most people don't listen to that. The DNC and Democrats do not have the same coordinated messaging system.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:46
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socialsecurity posted:So by sprinting to the right you mean in the 90s and there has been no left wing movement on any front since then? I'm not sure how I should take one president making an offhand comment about another president as any sort of actual policy and not just something you are making out to be much more than it really is. Hell define "right wing" maybe we have wildly different definitions. You said twenty years and I was referring to actions done in the aughts. And I mentioned the comment then more importantly the laissez-faire like action that is reminiscent of the person mentioned in the comment.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:47
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Shageletic posted:Did these socialists agree with Hogan scrapping public transit for Baltimore in favor of rural projects that was so blatantly discriminatory he got sued for it? https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/23/maryland-lawsuit-baltimore-rail-project-racism-larry-hogan They thought he "did a good job", generally. I didn't say I agreed, but I'm hard pressed to think of anyone who's said anything bad about him to me. Obviously the dude sucks, but I'd be shocked if he lost. Willa Rogers posted:Yeah, I think he's a shoo-in too, especially given his prior approvals as governor by Democratic voters (and their votes!) as well as the huge margin I mentioned. Exactly. We're stuck with him.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:50
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Shageletic posted:You said twenty years and I was referring to actions done in the aughts. And I mentioned the comment then more importantly the laissez-faire like action that is reminiscent of the person mentioned in the comment. Yeah I was saying how are the Dems now sprinting to the right more than the dems of 20 years ago and you quoted me about how Clinton's third way bullshit was right wing.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:51
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Shageletic posted:Acceptance of conservative courts steering the country backwards. I've seen this argument made in other places. Is this like "Democrats are letting conservative courts win and using 'separation of powers' as an excuse for not overturning their decisions"? Or is it the tired "We could've codified Roe when Obama had a majority" and then ignore that SCOTUS could just overturn that law just as easily? Or is it "Biden should pack the courts. Never mind he doesn't have the power or legislators to make that happen."? If it means something different, I'd like to know.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:51
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RBA Starblade posted:They thought he "did a good job", generally. I didn't say I agreed, but I'm hard pressed to think of anyone who's said anything bad about him to me. Obviously the dude sucks, but I'd be shocked if he lost. You're both likely underestimating the effect of a Presidential election year on heavily blue states that often elect Republican governors. I say this as someone from Massachusetts
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Apr 18, 2024 17:53
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Xombie posted:None of that negates all of the problems with the poll, namely that there isn't an actual Democratic candidate yet. This is on top of the issues with polls right now in general, where it's too far ahead of the election and they are done by phone poll and will therefore skew toward "people who pick up their phone for anonymous numbers". As I said, I found the sample size for the g.e. to be notable bc of its size & its likely-voter population. As I also said, things could possibly change once a Dem nominee is chosen, but I also think that Hogan having an 81 percent approval rating among Democrats once he left office is going to be a heavy lift for the DSCC, which I also said. I found the Black primary polling interesting because Alsobrooks would be the first Black senator from a state in which 30 percent of the electorate are Black. That looks to be moot anyway bc Trone will likely win the primary. We'll see how easy it is for the Democrats to paint their former preference for governor as senatorial poison, but I'd put my money on a Hogan win even as Maryland is sure to vote Biden by a wide margin. eta: The polling wasn't done exclusively by phone, btw: quote:Voters were randomly selected from the Maryland State Board of Elections’ voter file and contacted by trained interviewers by phone (landline and cellular). Additional voters were interviewed online through voter file sampling and databases known as consumer panels. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Apr 18, 2024 |
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Apr 18, 2024 17:57
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RBA Starblade posted:They thought he "did a good job", generally. I didn't say I agreed, but I'm hard pressed to think of anyone who's said anything bad about him to me. Obviously the dude sucks, but I'd be shocked if he lost. We'll see but split ticket voting has become significantly less of a thing in recent years. The biggest splits in 2020 were about 14% between Biden and Derrick in Nebraska and 10% in Maine where Biden led Gideon by that amount. Maryland went for Hillary by 26.5% and Biden by 33.64% in 2016 and 2020. I just don't think there will be enough of a split to overcome that. Like I have no doubt believing Biden runs significantly ahead of the Senate candidate there but when even the poster child of split tickets is retiring because he likely wouldn't win his seat back this year I struggle to imagine a world where Maryland votes a split ticket that massive. Zore fucked around with this message at 18:00 on Apr 18, 2024 |
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Apr 18, 2024 17:57
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For an example from the other side, Phil Bredesen was an extremely popular governor in Tennessee who lost by over ten points when he ran for Senate. The circumstances are different, but generally governors are much more insulated from national politics than Senators are and Hogan is going to really struggle to triangulate separating himself enough from Trump to get Democratic votes but not enough to lose Republicans.
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Apr 18, 2024 18:05
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Zore posted:The biggest splits in 2020 were about 14% between Biden and Derrick in Nebraska I'm assuming you meant Janicek here and that was a pretty wild election IIRC because the Dems endorsed a write-in over him after some insane group texts
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Apr 18, 2024 18:09
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SpeakSlow posted:Why do we keep letting Republicans define "the border crisis"? And why don't we fact check their claims? The Dems are trying to push their own definition of the border crisis, and they are trying to fact check the GOP's claims. It's just not working. Many swing demographics aren't particularly sympathetic to illegal immigration (or even to immigration in general), and the GOP is so far to the right on immigration now that when the media tries to put the answer in the middle they still end up pretty far to the right. America still has a pretty big racism problem, and it tends to be an order of magnitude worse when it comes to immigration since people can rationalize their racism by claiming they're really just mad about the violation of immigration laws.
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Apr 18, 2024 18:10
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Acebuckeye13 posted:For an example from the other side, Phil Bredesen was an extremely popular governor in Tennessee who lost by over ten points when he ran for Senate. The circumstances are different, but generally governors are much more insulated from national politics than Senators are and Hogan is going to really struggle to triangulate separating himself enough from Trump to get Democratic votes but not enough to lose Republicans. It's one thing if you're in charge of your own state and state legislature. It's another thing if you're going to be working and caucusing with other Republicans who are not so bipartisan.
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Apr 18, 2024 18:10
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Like for some perspective, Joe Manchin only ran about 24% ahead of Obama in 2012 which is the last time his elections synched with the presidential. And his case is considered an extreme outlier in terms of a state splitting its senate and presidential votes. Hogan would need to do better than that to win Maryland. That was also the last time we saw a split ticket percentage between President and Senate even approaching that, the maximum in 2016 and 2020 were 15.6% and 14%. so we'll see but I think it would be bizarre to put money on it at this point based on a single poll. Zore fucked around with this message at 18:25 on Apr 18, 2024 |
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Apr 18, 2024 18:13
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Once the Maryland primary has happened and a Democratic nominee is chosen I expect the polls to tighten but I also expect Hogan to lead Trone up until the g.e. And I doubt that Bredesen carried an 81 percent approval rating among GOP voters as governor, although I'm willing to be educated about it if he did.
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Apr 18, 2024 18:25
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Has Hogan said anything about abortion since Roe was overturned? I feel like that's an as-yet-unapplied variable that could change things pretty heavily. I'm not sure the standard R "I personally oppose all abortions except the ones you like, but will totally not pass any laws against it except for the ones I've already passed restricting it (ignore those please)" stance he used to espouse is gonna work as well now.
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Apr 18, 2024 18:27
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I would be shocked if Hogan came in striking distance of winning. Every politically-minded lib I know saw him as a counterbalance to the state dem supermajority but MD is deep blue and people are appalled at the thought of handing the senate to the Rs I'm in a very blue part of the state though so my experience might not be universal
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Apr 18, 2024 18:37
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ElegantFugue posted:Has Hogan said anything about abortion since Roe was overturned? I feel like that's an as-yet-unapplied variable that could change things pretty heavily. I'm not sure the standard R "I personally oppose all abortions except the ones you like, but will totally not pass any laws against it except for the ones I've already passed restricting it (ignore those please)" stance he used to espouse is gonna work as well now. Even as he scored his 81 percent approval rating among Democrats in the state he was busy vetoing bills that expanded abortion. His record as governor is solidly conservative, which is why it's so mystifying that Maryland Democrats have adored him so much.
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Apr 18, 2024 18:39
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socialsecurity posted:Yeah I was saying how are the Dems now sprinting to the right more than the dems of 20 years ago and you quoted me about how Clinton's third way bullshit was right wing. socialsecurity posted:Sprinting to the right compared to what, how are the democrats today more to the right than 5 10 or even 20 years ago? My understanding is you asking how are the democrats more to the right than 20 years ago. I responded with a number of things, some of which, like immigration, you still haven't acknowledged. So now you're saying you were comparing how Dems sprinted to the right 20 years ago compared to sprinting to the right now? Then you should have reworded your post.
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Apr 18, 2024 18:39
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Willa Rogers posted:Once the Maryland primary has happened and a Democratic nominee is chosen I expect the polls to tighten but I also expect Hogan to lead Trone up until the g.e. I can't find any polling easily but Hogan won significantly more narrow elections in Maryland than Bredesen did in Tenessee. Looking at both of their last elections for Governor, Hogan won 55%-44% in 2018 while in 2006 Bredesen won 69%-29% and was a massively popular governor with a lot of crossover appeal. He also led in polling against Blackburn for most of the cycle in 2018 until RGB's death caused a sea change in the race and began to motivate a lot of Republican voters not to split their tickets as Judicial nominations took a ton of air out of the room.
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Apr 18, 2024 18:39
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Hey if I call someone online a fascist a few more times will the war stop??? Just trying to understand the point of making this thread unreadable
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Apr 18, 2024 18:52
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US Foreign Policy posted:Hey if I call someone online a fascist a few more times will the war stop??? Just trying to understand the point of making this thread unreadable It's the exact same argument that ends up with people talking past each other in the exact same way every time. It's just people making noise at this point. https://youtu.be/Q9zvgcOrTtw?si=BBH3ZmDpa_OKUN24 We are all the turkeys
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Apr 18, 2024 19:03
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Not a Children posted:I would be shocked if Hogan came in striking distance of winning. Every politically-minded lib I know saw him as a counterbalance to the state dem supermajority but MD is deep blue and people are appalled at the thought of handing the senate to the Rs lol at zen balance voters. balance voters are the worst even among MAGA poo poo. hell even worst then no voters. every group except balance-er is voting for something they want somewhat directly. but balance voters are playing some weird metagame.
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Apr 18, 2024 19:05
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Balance voters are the only thing keeping NC from turning into Honduras right now so sadly, we need them.
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Apr 18, 2024 19:11
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Bodyholes posted:Balance voters are the only thing keeping NC from turning into Honduras right now so sadly, we need them. Also Cooper is a talented politician and probably wouldn't be a bad idea to run for higher office.
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Apr 18, 2024 19:18
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I wouldn't say that the Dems have moved to the right on immigration at all. If anything, they've moved significantly to the left since the days when Bill Clinton signed the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act, which massively expanded the deportation regime and passed the Senate 72-27. And while that was a Republican bill rather than a Clinton bill, it did get some Dem votes, and the Clinton administration made no secret of its willingness to take it as an opportunity to brag about deporting record numbers of illegal immigrants. Of course, he didn't hold that record long. As far as I can tell, the deportation record is held by the Obama administration. The Biden administration deported 142k people during FY2023, but that's actually quite an improvement over ten years before, when the Obama administration deported 434k people in 2013 (which earned him the derisive title of "deporter-in-chief" from pro-immigration advocates).
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Apr 18, 2024 19:35
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https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1780748530753196525 That's kind of a push-y question, though it is from a GOP commissioned survey, I'd be interested to see what the number was on an open ended "Who's to blame" question.
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Apr 18, 2024 19:51
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