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Dante80 posted:I think not eagerly supporting a loving genocide would be a good start, and could stand on its own merits if it's all the same otherwise. He has clearly been trying to walk a fine line in the last few months. The U.S. has been calling for a ceasefire since February, paused arms shipments to Israel this week, and has been pushing for a peace deal. Eagerly supporting it would probably be more satisfying to some people than the current balancing act of trying to pressure Israel, but not too much, and walking the line that isn't really pleasing any of the people who are passionate/paying attention to the issue on either side. mawarannahr posted:The poll said "half can correctly report that more Palestinians than Israelis have died since the war’s start", you can afford to be a little more charitable to your fellow American You are correct, 50/50 is technically not a majority. I appreciate the pedantry and keeping it factual!
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May 7, 2024 15:46
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Dante80 posted:supporting a loving genocide there are no longer any supporters of genocide (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 7, 2024 16:08
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enahs posted:48,162 people voted for uninstructed delegate in the Wisconsin democratic primary at the beginning of April. Biden won WI by 20,682 votes in 2020. I don't know if he would lose more voters by not supporting a genocide, but it certainly looks like he may lose enough to lose the election by staying the course. Bernie had 287,834 votes in the Pennsylvania primary a month after he dropped out and then Biden won the state in November by 80,555.
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May 7, 2024 17:27
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Xombie posted:Bernie had 287,834 votes in the Pennsylvania primary a month after he dropped out and then Biden won the state in November by 80,555. I don’t think Gazans are going to start campaigning for their friend Joe Biden, is maybe one major difference in how that might play out. Bernie was a candidate, not a cause, ultimately, and he did what candidates/not causes do when they’re defeated. I don’t see how this is really relevant if Israel doesn’t stop what they’re doing, much less Bibi coming out and formally endorsing Biden, which would be its own can of worms.
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May 7, 2024 17:30
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selec posted:I don’t think Gazans are going to start campaigning for their friend Joe Biden, is maybe one major difference in how that might play out. Yes it's a difference that works out in Biden's favor because, once again, there is only an insignificant number of voters who, come November every two years, are single-issue voters on foreign policy that is not a war America is actively sending soldiers into. quote:Bernie was a candidate, not a cause, ultimately, and he did what candidates/not causes do when they’re defeated. I don’t see how this is really relevant if Israel doesn’t stop what they’re doing, much less Bibi coming out and formally endorsing Biden, which would be its own can of worms. Besides the idea of Bernie as "not a cause" being laughably incorrect, I am explicitly talking about primary votes that occurred after Bernie dropped out. Every vote for him at that point was explicitly sending a message to the Democratic party of some sort. Those votes dwarfed the "uncommitted" votes in this primary and still did not prevent Biden from winning.
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May 7, 2024 17:35
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Xombie posted:Yes it's a difference that works out in Biden's favor because, once again, there is only an insignificant number of voters who, come November every two years, are single-issue voters on foreign policy that is not a war America is actively sending soldiers into. Primary votes are not predictive of general election behavior, but the fact that there is an organized protest vote made up of demographics that generally favor Democrats isn't really a positive thing and is definitely something to consider when making predictions about a close election. Especially since, even though the actual amount of the protest vote is small, it is highly concentrated in at least one state that is expected to be very competitive.
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May 7, 2024 17:40
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Xombie posted:Yes it's a difference that works out in Biden's favor because, once again, there is only an insignificant number of voters who, come November every two years, are single-issue voters on foreign policy that is not a war America is actively sending soldiers into. I mean, yeah, a lot of people were fooled into thinking Bernie was a cause. Hell I had my moments. But ultimately, much like the Obama campaign, that turned out to be marketing copy not reality. I don’t see these things as comparable: Bernie specifically told his people who to vote for. Gazans themselves, and their supporters here in the US, don’t seem nearly as primed to push people to support Joe Biden. There will be a ton of effort to try to claim the cause for themselves for people tasked with youth voter outreach, but unless those influencers and DNC types are at the encampments now, I don’t see those efforts being successful. I don’t even think you need to be a single issue voter for this to push you from abstaining. It’s just one more piece of evidence for the pile that drives people to feel disengaged or just fed up.
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May 7, 2024 17:42
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Primary votes are not predictive of general election behavior, but that fact that there is an organized protest vote made up of demographics that generally favor Democrats isn't really a positive thing and is definitely something to consider when making predictions about a close election. I didn't argue that it's a positive thing or that it isn't (vaguely) "something to consider". I said it didn't stop Biden from winning, despite that it was a much larger primary protest vote. If people are going to argue that this protest vote is directly predictive of general election turnout or voting patterns, they're going to have to do better than the raw numbers that have been presented.
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May 7, 2024 17:45
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Xombie posted:I didn't argue that it's a positive thing or that it isn't (vaguely) "something to consider". I said it didn't stop Biden from winning, despite that it was a much larger primary protest vote. If people are going to argue that this protest vote is directly predictive of general election turnout or voting patterns, they're going to have to do better than the raw numbers that have been presented. I didn't mean to imply you were saying it was an objectively positive thing, but just meant that in relation to your first sentence about it being a relative positive compared to the Bernie protest vote or historical general uncommitted/dropped out candidates vote totals. You are correct that primary votes never really correlate to general election vote shares, but I think Selec has provided some reasons why it isn't necessarily a one to one comparison to Bernie protest votes and the geographic concentration means that even smaller amounts of absolute voters can have a bigger impact on results if they act en masse.
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May 7, 2024 17:50
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:People keep saying that it's not a big deal because a majority of Americans support the war or whatever, but that's not the point. The last few elections have had razor thin margins and if Biden has depressed turnout AT ALL because of his support for this genocidal war, it could very well be the thing that costs him the election. Biden needs maximum voter engagement and enthusiasm if he's going to defeat Trump. You're mixing up "cares about this issue" and "shares my position on this issue" as if they're equivalent. There's plenty of people who care very strongly about this issue and think that we should be giving Israel more aid and giving the Palestinians less aid. And while many of those people do tend to lean Republican, there's quite a few of them on the Democratic side too! Positions on the events in Gaza don't perfectly split across our partisan divide, due to the fact that total support for Israel was an overwhelmingly bipartisan issue up until very recently. Besides, there's lot of other issues that far more voters are concerned about which could also depress turnout and cost him the election! Polls are consistently finding that the two most important issues to voters are the economy and immigration, and that voters prefer Trump over Biden on both of those issues. That is why Biden's poll numbers are looking bad. And yet people keep trying to insist that the thing that shows up as least important on the poll is the thing that's going to decide the election. Yeah, the 12% of people saying Gaza is their most important issue could very well decide a very close election. But so could the 45% of people who say that price rises in the past four years are their most important issue.
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May 7, 2024 17:54
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selec posted:I mean, yeah, a lot of people were fooled into thinking Bernie was a cause. Hell I had my moments. But ultimately, much like the Obama campaign, that turned out to be marketing copy not reality. Your personal opinion about Bernie really doesn't matter when we're discussing hundreds of thousands of voters who aren't you. quote:I don’t see these things as comparable: Bernie specifically told his people who to vote for. Gazans themselves, and their supporters here in the US, don’t seem nearly as primed to push people to support Joe Biden. There will be a ton of effort to try to claim the cause for themselves for people tasked with youth voter outreach, but unless those influencers and DNC types are at the encampments now, I don’t see those efforts being successful. If you're going to argue that the majority of Bernie's protest voters *only* voted for Biden due to Bernie's endorsement, you're going to have to give some evidence of it. The point still stands here is that protest votes in a primary do not translate to enough of an effect on the general to prevent the candidate from winning. enahs's reply to me stated that this movement has loyalty to the tune of at least 50% of the protest voters translating their vote to the general. But there's no evidence that there even are enough single-issue foreign policy voters over a policy without *direct* intervention to swing the election in the first place. You say that Gazans aren't campaigning for Biden, but every past election says that they don't have to. History says that foreign wars America isn't fighting in doesn't even translate to votes, let alone this one specific issue. quote:I don’t even think you need to be a single issue voter for this to push you from abstaining. It’s just one more piece of evidence for the pile that drives people to feel disengaged or just fed up. If you abstain from voting over a single issue, it is by definition single-issue voting.
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May 7, 2024 17:57
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I didn't mean to imply you were saying it was an objectively positive thing, but just meant that in relation to your first sentence about it being a relative positive compared to the Bernie protest vote or historical general uncommitted/dropped out candidates vote totals. I'm not saying it's a 1:1 comparison. In fact I am saying that it is even less likely to have as much of an impact because it is under the category of "policy towards wars America isn't fighting in". It would be an unprecedented amount of loyalty to a type cause that Americans traditionally have very little loyalty for when voting in major elections. So one can't just translate protest votes to November votes. Protest votes have happened, foreign wars that America backed have happened. Where's the numbers of something like this tipping the scales enough to change the outcome? Xombie fucked around with this message at 18:05 on May 7, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 18:02
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Without having the data in front of me there is another angle here is that a bunch of people signed up for the Democratic Primary or who rarely vote (or have no intention of voting for Joe Biden anyways) to make the protest vote. In which case it won't effect the margin either way.
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May 7, 2024 18:10
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I think that people who feel very strongly about Israel/Palestine are massively overrepresented in media coverage and poll after poll shows most voters don't care. https://twitter.com/axios/status/1787791459464126681  I don't think it's a mystery why Biden isn't catering to a minority position among an already low-propensity voting demographic, at least rhetorically. In fact, this poll would seem to indicate that he'd face more backlash among the relevant age group that supposed to tank the election for him.
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May 7, 2024 18:15
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:According to the polls, most people aren't bloodthirsty Zionists or fascists. Most people just don't care and they view Israel as conducting the war in response to a terrorist attack and therefore justified. Well, if you're refuting my point that he might lose just as many votes regardless of his choice, then it seems his choices are between support genocide and lose votes, or don't support genocide and gain votes. That seems win-win to me! What's stopping him?
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May 7, 2024 18:17
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:Well, if you're refuting my point that he might lose just as many votes regardless of his choice, then it seems his choices are between support genocide and lose votes, or don't support genocide and gain votes. That seems win-win to me! What's stopping him? The data once again doesn't support this claim in the slightest despite how many times it gets repeated with no evidence.
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May 7, 2024 18:19
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:Well, if you're refuting my point that he might lose just as many votes regardless of his choice, then it seems his choices are between support genocide and lose votes, or don't support genocide and gain votes. That seems win-win to me! What's stopping him? I'm not refuting your point one way or the other. Just meant that it was not accurate to ascribe those beliefs to most Americans based on polls. The average American is many things, but they are not bloodthirsty hardcore Israelites. They just don't care either way. It has a similar impact on public policy when there isn't a large and organized/influential political counterweight, but it is a different motivating (or non-motivating) factor than bloodlust. Most Americans don't care at all, a smaller group really cares about Israel, and a slightly smaller group really cares about the Palestinians. Very few Americans are hardcore actively bloodthirsty and invested. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:27 on May 7, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 18:23
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socialsecurity posted:The data once again doesn't support this claim in the slightest despite how many times it gets repeated with no evidence. What claim? This genuinely doesn't make any sense at all as a response to what I posted. My first post was saying that we don't fully know whether he'd gain more votes by switching his position, so we should primarily consider the policy and not the electoral consequence; Leon responded to that post basically saying people writ large don't give a poo poo about the war; my response to that was, great, so we don't have to worry about losing votes by deciding to not support genocide, so let's stop supporting genocide.
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May 7, 2024 18:24
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https://twitter.com/SxarletRed/status/1787884148096442684 Well that’s not at all racist
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May 7, 2024 18:27
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theCalamity posted:https://twitter.com/SxarletRed/status/1787884148096442684 Hamas is a political and military group and not a race. Until 2006, they explicitly had antisemitism as part of the charter for the group. Conflating all Palestinians with Hamas is Bibi's dream.
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May 7, 2024 18:32
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Hamas is a political and military group and not a race. Until 2006, they explicitly had antisemitism as part of the charter for the group. In which peoples might those ancient desires have existed, since Hamas isn't ancient?
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May 7, 2024 18:34
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Hamas is a political and military group and not a race. Until 2006, they explicitly had antisemitism as part of the charter for the group. Hamas lacks ancient desires because it is not ancient. Biden is achieving Bibi's dream for all to see.
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May 7, 2024 18:38
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Bel Shazar posted:In which peoples might those ancient desires have existed, since Hamas isn't ancient? Old school antisemitism has existed forever in many groups. The Head cleric of Hamas literally cited the Bible and the killing of Jesus as a reason why Christians should support them against Jews two years ago. It's called the oldest prejudice for a reason.
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May 7, 2024 18:40
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zoux posted:
I'm gobsmacked that healthcare reform ranks as the top issue, although I guess we don't know whether that means "I love that my parents could keep me on their insurance until I'm 26" or "I'm mad my parents can't afford to pay the deductibles under their insurance."  It's a weird outcome for something that doesn't seem to be very relevant to college life.I can't find anything about the polling outfit, and it doesn't appear to show up in rankings of pollsters by 538 et al. There isn't any additional info on those surveyed that would come up in crosstabs, or what range of choices were given; it doesn't appear to be freeform answering. We don't even know whether the poll was commissioned and if so, by whom. All I could find out is that it was founded & is run by Michael Bechloss' son. More importantly, although the top issues for college kids in this poll are coincidentally those that the Biden admin has been touting as his accomplishments, just about all other polling shows a precipitous drop in support for Biden among younger voters compared to 2020. Even if "the conflict in the Middle East" ranks last among them, there must be other issues that are depressing their support this year. eta: I found this pdf about questions that Axios commissioned GL to ask but they differ from those presented in the chart; I haven't yet looked them over. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 18:45 on May 7, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 18:41
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zoux posted:I think that people who feel very strongly about Israel/Palestine are massively overrepresented in media coverage and poll after poll shows most voters don't care. I like how they've intentionally split up the "It's a single Israeli's fault" from "It's every Israeli's fault" and "It's Israel and the USs fault" to make "It's Hamas's fault" look like the biggest group.
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May 7, 2024 18:45
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Gerund posted:Hamas lacks ancient desires because it is not ancient. Biden is achieving Bibi's dream for all to see. Is it also your belief that the Nazis were not working off of racism that was as old as time because they didn't exist as an organization until the 20th century? They have an entire branch of history for studying revanchist and theocratic practices that are based on new groups exploiting old prejudices.
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May 7, 2024 18:51
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The most popular opinion on I/P by most of the people I know is "this ain't our fight, why are we even involved, we already tried to fix it and failed anyway, we need to prioritize stuff at home and stop getting involved in everything". So functionally they mostly support cessation of all support to Israel but for reasons unrelated to whatever their activities in Palestine might be and not to an extent it influences their other political opinions or decisions.
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May 7, 2024 18:52
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Willa Rogers posted:I'm gobsmacked that healthcare reform ranks as the top issue, although I guess we don't know whether that means "I love that my parents could keep me on their insurance until I'm 26" or "I'm mad my parents can't afford to pay the deductibles under their insurance." people of all ages are increasingly terrified about medical expenses and every year that goes by a higher percentage of college age kids leave home with no real benefit from obamacare child coverage extensions because their parents are also uninsured or underinsured and will not or can not cover them the current state of healthcare can put deep gnawing anxiety even in the young and relatively healthy, and it is not improving other issues should also come without a lot of surprise, such as being worried about access to educational opportunities and being worried about not having access to not being full of holes in the latest campus shooting i will have no surprise if further polling reinforces the same findings about all those issues jumping significantly past gaza which gets harder to find people in general populace openly giving a poo poo about as it goes on
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May 7, 2024 18:52
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I'd guess that healthcare reform also includes access to abortion.
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May 7, 2024 18:56
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That pdf does appear to be the survey that Axios reported, although Axios did omit some key findings:   What I'm gleaning from these results is a lot more nuance than Axios presented in its findings, even if the issue won't be a deciding factor in college students' votes. eta: Alterian posted:I'd guess that healthcare reform also includes access to abortion. If the topic were just "healthcare" I'd agree. But regression to pre-Roe doesn't strike me as "reform" because when people talk about "healthcare reform" they're usually referring to the ACA. Staluigi, your points are good ones. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 02:44 on May 8, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 18:56
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This seems particularly egregious that there is no "israeli leaders" option
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May 7, 2024 18:59
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punishedkissinger posted:This seems particularly egregious that there is no "israeli leaders" option The 19 percent under "someone else" might include them. eta that another thing I found specious about the polling was that there were no questions asked about police actions against protestors, or questions about counter-protestors' claims of anti-semitism. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 19:05 on May 7, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 19:00
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Alterian posted:I'd guess that healthcare reform also includes access to abortion. Yeah, it’s this. College students are upset about a right that’s been sacrosanct for longer than they’ve been alive being suddenly ripped away from half the country and one party making open and gleeful plans to ban it forever in the other half
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May 7, 2024 19:00
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the term you are looking for to describe "ancient desires" is orientalist. acting like this conflict has inscrutable causes lost to time, rather than being extremely simple to comprehend and modern (zionism being conceptualized in the late 19th century and israel coming into existence in 1948) is like textbook orientalism. not good imo.
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May 7, 2024 19:01
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lobster shirt posted:the term you are looking for to describe "ancient desires" is orientalist. acting like this conflict has inscrutable causes lost to time, rather than being extremely simple to comprehend and modern (zionism being conceptualized in the late 19th century and israel coming into existence in 1948) is like textbook orientalism. not good imo.
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May 7, 2024 19:18
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lobster shirt posted:the term you are looking for to describe "ancient desires" is orientalist. acting like this conflict has inscrutable causes lost to time, rather than being extremely simple to comprehend and modern (zionism being conceptualized in the late 19th century and israel coming into existence in 1948) is like textbook orientalism. not good imo. The I/P conflict existed for half a century before Hamas even formed. If they were talking explicitly about the I/P conflict as a whole, then I would agree with you. Killing Jesus and stuff like this that Hamas references long predate 1948. I understand the impulse for people to take a side or frame it in the greater context of historical I/P conflict discourse when Israel has been clearly in the wrong for at least the last 6 months of the most recent conflict, but antisemitism is really not the area where "you gotta hand it to" Hamas. They were putting this in their mission statement as recently as 2015 and had explicit antisemitism in their charter until 2006 when they removed it as a condition to run for the elections. Conflating Hamas with the entire I/P conflict that existed long before them is inaccurate and not great for peace efforts in general. quote:The hour of judgment shall not come until the Muslims fight the Jews and kill them, so that the Jews hide behind trees and stones, and each tree and stone will say: 'Oh Muslim, oh servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him,' except for the Gharqad tree, for it is the tree of the Jews. quote:Whoever is killed by a Jew receives the reward of two martyrs, because the very thing that the Jews did to the prophets was done to him. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:28 on May 7, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 19:20
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It's worth watching the other sections of this. It's a really loving monstrous rewriting of events. https://twitter.com/SxarletRed/status/1787884495208604080 https://twitter.com/SxarletRed/status/1787887627112255629 gently caress me, I've voted blue every election in my entire life, and I don't think I can do anymore. It's not only the continuation of enabling Israel's genocide, it's the sheer contempt against anyone who is against it. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Rebel Blob fucked around with this message at 19:47 on May 7, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 19:43
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Its also a little weird to single out zionism as a "19th century invention" when that probably also applies to most nationalist and anti-imperialist movements. There is probably very few countries that didn't have a significant amount of their modern day identity shake out between the years 1800 and 1900; and most nations that came to exist in the 20th centuries had major movements beginning there too. And also I don't think it really makes sense to suppose Israel declaring independence as per the UN Partition Plan is a "cause" either, it didn't have to be there's plenty of ways of peacefully resolving the disputes from the process without it turning into a wider conflict.
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May 7, 2024 19:50
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Rebel Blob posted:It's worth watching the other sections of this. It's a really loving monstrous rewriting of events. You should watch the videos, but the Twitter commentary is not very accurate. Watch the last video and see if you think it is an accurate summary of what was said at the Holocaust Remembrance Day speech. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:55 on May 7, 2024 |
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May 7, 2024 19:53
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Was there also not a youtube clip from an official news source with the appropriate timestamp that could've been posted instead from a clip from a random twitter account who is obviously maybe not a neutral source? If the contents of Bidens speech are actually outrageous they would still be outrageous without needing to go through a "noise injecting mediator".
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May 7, 2024 19:57
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