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If all of these tax bills pass, then the cumulative changes for this tax year would be: - $400 more refundable tax credit per child. - The child tax credit amount will start scaling with inflation after 2025, rounded up to the nearest $100. - You can use your current year or last year's income to determine eligibility for the child tax credit and take the lower amount. - Small businesses can write off double the amount of depreciation through 2025. - Renews business tax credits for research and development costs, interest payments, and capital investments from the Trump tax bill that were set to expire until 2025. - Removes the "marriage penalty" for the SALT deduction and allows you to get double the credit if you file jointly (no changes to the actual SALT credit amount or cap) instead of needing to file your taxes separately to claim the credit for each person. There are also provisions for housing subsidies, but those are not going to impact individual or business income taxes this year.
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Jan 31, 2024 16:47
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Thom12255 posted:Is this regardless of your income? And is this just shifting what is refundable and non-refundable in the $2000 available? Yes, it is moving the refundable amount. Up to $2,000 by 2025 and then pegging it to inflation afterwards. The total amount is still $2,000, but if you were low-income* before and didn't qualify for the non-refundable part, then you will get $400** (or slightly more if you have multiple qualifying kids and a certain amount of income). If you were higher-income and already took advantage of the refundable and non-refundable portion, then you will get slightly less (around $300 at the end) because it would be the difference between what the non-refundable $400 was vs. getting all of that $400 back. Edit: *If you make less than $2,500 per year, you are excluded though. That is the threshold for the benefit calculation and wasn't changed. ** This is the amount for 2025. The backdated amount that you can claim for 2023 or 2022 income is only an extra $200 this year. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:29 on Jan 31, 2024 |
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Jan 31, 2024 17:22
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haveblue posted:This seems really unfair and dilutes the power of the high-population forums That is why I hereby submit for consideration a motion to implement the 3/5ths lurker compromise.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:50
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The Ol Spicy Keychain posted:https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/30/kyrsten-sinema-donations-00138738 According to her friends and campaign staff: She legitimately thought she was going to be the first female President and possibly the first independent President by riding a career as a maverick like John McCain. She kept following her heart and not listening to people all throughout her career and she went from a part-time community college teacher and green party activist to the Senate in 7 years. So, she figured she knew what she was doing. Now, it seems like she is operating mostly out of some combination of spite, attention, and opportunity to cash out.
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Jan 31, 2024 17:52
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The new Twitter/X CEO just testified that Twitter saw a 6x increase in child sexual content after Musk took over, but that they also have increased the number of accounts banned for child sexual content by 6x. I'm guessing the complete lack of enforcement for the first 6 months when Elon fired everyone and a general vibe that it was free rein over at Twitter caused it, but it is still bonkers that pedophiles basically were 6x more comfortable (or possibly 6x more productive) with posting that content just from Elon taking over, even though Elon never said anything about X (or the federal government) being cool with it now.
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Jan 31, 2024 18:00
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FlamingLiberal posted:Well it certainly would have helped if Musk’s first action at Twitter wasn’t to just arbitrarily fire 75% of the people who worked there without any regard to who was important for the site to operate She says that under Musk, X/Twitter is doing even more to combat it and has even fewer violating posts than in 2020 and that initial hiccup was proof of their ability to handle it. I have no idea how they are measuring it because it is testimony and they aren't providing any numbers. Lindsay Graham has spent his entire time begging them to confirm that they will fight for Donald Trump's right to privacy and protect his DMs from law enforcement subpoenas and to protect Trump from all the false slander he sees going on about him online. Just sad.
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Jan 31, 2024 18:11
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B B posted:Speaking of plummeting numbers: It's Morning Consult. Their state polls have always been wacky. Their own general election poll also has Biden leading nationally by 2, which is absolutely not possible if he is losing every state by 5-10. Their Pennsylvania numbers are 10.5 points off from the two most recent other polls of PA. https://www.politicspa.com/poll-biden-leads-trump-casey-holds-edge-on-mccormick/130944/ Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Jan 31, 2024 |
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Jan 31, 2024 18:16
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The Lord of Hats posted:I’d love to hear the full train of thought spelled out. Like, I can kind of get how she imagined the presidency thing working out, because “I’m going to be the independent maverick that gets in because I just talk so much sense and am so obviously right, and people will like that I’m not beholden to either party” isn’t exactly an uncommon delusion. But where did she see “loudly renege in my campaign promises and espoused principles” being something that worked for her prior supporters. John McCain annoyed people in both parties. This made him popular among certain voters and the national media. He won his party's nomination for President. She can do the same thing. It's not especially complicated or accurate, but there was a clear logic process.
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Jan 31, 2024 18:20
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Zapp Brannigan posted:I don't buy that politicspa poll. There's no way McCormick is over performing Trump here. That dude lost to Mehmet loving Oz in the primary 2 years ago. Me either. Take any polls this far out with a grain of salt. There's no way Biden is winning PA by nearly 8 points and there is no way he is losing every swing state by 5 to 10 points and winning the national popular vote by 2 at the same time. He'd have to be pulling 85% of the vote in every state he won.
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Jan 31, 2024 19:00
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This tech hearing is getting kind of wild. There are parents in the audience whose kids died from suicide, doing dumb thinks they saw promoted by TikTok, being groomed, kidnapped, etc. holding pictures up of their kids behind the tech CEOs. The CEO of X/Twitter (Linda Yaccarino) just read prepared remarks that included "We need to raise the standard across the entire industry, including those companies who are not here today and were afraid to face the public." Some member of congress then said, "Let the record show that Mrs. Yaccarino initially declined to appear voluntarily and had to be summoned here via subpoena." Mark Zuckerberg is sweating and crying after people were dogpiling him about lawsuits and asking about DOJ investigations. Lindsay Graham and Amy Klobuchar described how Instagram did nothing after a guy was blackmailed with naked pictures of himself via a scam and then he killed himself when they told him to deal with it because it wasn't their job to police scams. The exchange went: quote:Senator: What would you say to that man?  Live link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUjv2Ky7PcM Zuckerberg is crying after being grilled by dorks like Ted Cruz and people who are usually white bread passive backbenchers like Chris Coons. https://twitter.com/jason_kint/status/1752732606464921749 https://twitter.com/jason_kint/status/1752739416596967934 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Jan 31, 2024 |
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Jan 31, 2024 20:08
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The CEO of TikTok was also just arguing that it can be difficult to tell how many of the kids that are recommended anti-Semitic or white supremacist content by their algorithm might have just wanted to see that, so it is impossible to say exactly how much responsibility they have for tens of millions of people under 25 seeing it. It's possible that tens of millions of people under 25 were trying to find Nazi videos on purpose. The very next question he says they have extremely detailed programs and policies to prevent kids under 18 from seeing advertisements with sexual content and keep detailed tracking records to ensure it doesn't happen.
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Jan 31, 2024 20:24
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Dick Blumenthal and Josh Hawley just asked Zuckerberg if he would apologize to the parents with dead kids sitting behind him. He actually stood up, faced them, and said:quote:I’m sorry for everything that you all have been through. It’s horrible. No one should have to go through the things that your families have, have suffered, and this is why we’ve invested so much and are going to do industry-leading efforts to make sure that no one has to go through the types of things that your families have suffered. Seems like a fairly good on-the-spot apology. And then he had to add on: quote:The existing body of scientific work has not shown a causal link between using social media and young people having worse mental health outcomes. https://twitter.com/zamaan_qureshi/status/1752742234250674473
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Jan 31, 2024 20:37
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Dick Blumenthal is bringing up documents from State AG lawsuits against Twitter/X about them trying to monetize kids and the content that gets exposed to minors and they just had this wild exchange:quote:Blumenthal: What is your opinion on these figures about children under 13 being targeted with this type of content? Zamujasa posted:i am not "gonna hand it to him" (zuck) because while it's nice he managed to pull an apology out of his rear end, he's only done it after how many years of enabling this poo poo with no end, and even then only at the prompting of a senator currently grilling him You don't have to hand it to him. I was posting that because of how robotic and lovely it was that he goes out of his way to claim that there is no scientific proof that social media has any impact on children's mental health after being asked to confront people whose kids killed themselves via eating disorders or suicide prompted by things on social media. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Jan 31, 2024 |
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Jan 31, 2024 20:51
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They are bringing out subpoenaed documents where Meta estimates the value of an under 18 user at $270. If it costs more than that to manage the user or deal with problems, then it isn't worth it. There aren't any legal implications to that, but why in the world are you writing things like that down as official policy? Do people need to regularly check that figure? Is there any scenario where writing that down leads to any outcome other than an extremely embarrassing public revelation?
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Jan 31, 2024 20:59
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PhazonLink posted:listening to afternoon npr, and they're talking about some new herbal supplement notdrug call Kratom, never heard of it, but im a lame straightedge nerd. also i dont live in FL. (the guest journalist are in FL) Kratom is not new at all. It is extremely old. It gained popularity because it isn't illegal at the federal level and you can get an opiate-like high if you chewed a bunch of it. I don't know the exact specifics of what NPR was talking about today, but it was a hugely popular thing to recommend in TCC on this very website way back in the early 2000's as a way to sate your pain pill cravings. (Never take any medical advice from TCC.) Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Jan 31, 2024 |
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Jan 31, 2024 21:20
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Aztec Galactus posted:The likely reason it its news in Florida its because the Tampa Bay Times did a longform investigative piece: Thanks for the link. That is most likely the explanation and it is a great piece of journalism. I knew that a bunch of people had died from Kratom, but didn't realize it was in the hundreds in just Florida. The head of the American Kratom Association (a wild title to hold) is an actual sociopath. This is just a tiny sample of his comments: quote:For years, the American Kratom Association, which is the most influential kratom lobbying and advocacy group in the world, has told the public and legislatures across the country that the herb cannot be fatal, unless it’s contaminated or laced with drugs like fentanyl. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:36 on Jan 31, 2024 |
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Jan 31, 2024 21:32
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Jaxyon posted:So what's the end game here making this bipartisan....have the public polling turned against social media or are they playing for "censorship that helps my party"? Probably a bit of that and the fact that lawsuits from State AGs have produced documents showing that TikTok, Meta, and X were basically allowing child porn and targeting children for addiction without regard to their mental or physical health. It's pretty hard to publicly come out on the "we need more child porn" and "kill our children" side of a political argument.
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Jan 31, 2024 21:34
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MixMasterMalaria posted:You see a lot of concentrates which by most accounts have the same perils of other opiates: addiction, withdrawals, etc. I've known people who just use the herb as is and seem fine, and people who get weird and hazardously into the concentrates. There's good info in TCC. Is the appeal specifically because it is legal at the federal level and it is an ease of acquisition situation? Or is there something special about the high/effects that is drawing people to use incredibly high concentrate blends? I remember when it first came on the scene like 20 years ago, but it seemed really niche. I'm guessing part of the recent uptick is the crackdown on getting easy pain pills? Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:46 on Jan 31, 2024 |
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Jan 31, 2024 21:43
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haveblue posted:I thought it was always the plan to use a different sequence each time? They don’t want anyone to be First In The Nation permanently and forever (other than New Hampshire, until they change their state laws) They said they are going to re-vote on the order each cycle, but that doesn't mean they necessarily are going to cycle out every state each primary season. The article is just noting that the policy means they will be reviewing the order again in 2028 and the current order might not mean anything because 2024 is expected to be mostly uncontested and 2028 is an open primary, so the order for 2028 is the more significant order in practical terms.
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Feb 5, 2024 18:08
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Finally, some policy specifics out of this election cycle that is shockingly light on policy specifics. Unfortunately, it is pretty horrible policy. Trump has released an economic plan that combines steep tariffs with large corporate tax cuts and mass deportations. Big business allies who are usually not in favor of mass deportations or huge tariffs have caustiously signed on to the plan because Trump is promising massive corporate and high-income tax cuts to make up the difference. Even according to economists from Trump's campaign, the plan will: - Raise the incomes of U.S. steelworkers by about 11%, but increase unemployment among American factory workers. - Increase overall inflation by about 1% per year, up to a 3.8% increase to the topline inflation figure over 5 years. - Increase the costs of goods from China by at least 60% for American consumers. - Increase the cost to consumers for all goods made outside of America by at least 10%. - Raise pork and chicken production costs by at least 37% and cause shortages. - Unspecified, but large spikes in the prices of fresh fruits, construction, and hotels. - Reduce the corporate tax rate to 15%, remove the new corporate minimum tax rate, cut taxes for people with incomes over $400,000, eliminate the new stock buy-back tax, and make the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent. This would be approximately $6 trillion in tax cuts that would almost entirely go to corporations and the top 20% of households in the U.S. - Attempt to deport roughly 13 million people in America by targeting people who are here illegally, revoking temporary protected status for others, and conducting a nationwide review of immigrants who have overstayed their visa to search for them. - Raise prices and impact employment an unknown amount depending on the reaction of other countries to the trade war and tariffs. https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1754892023860011122 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/01/12/trump-tax-cuts-2024/ quote:Donald Trump is vowing sweeping changes to the nation’s economy that threaten to reignite inflation — even as the former president blames President Biden for higher prices and says he’ll bring the problem under control. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:31 on Feb 6, 2024 |
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Feb 6, 2024 17:22
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The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration has a new study out showing that nearly all automobile deaths in the United States are preventable. The single biggest contributors to deaths (of car passengers or drivers and not counting pedestrians) are: 1) People not wearing seatbelts. 2) People speeding far in excess of the posted limits. 3) People driving while distracted by a cell phone or intoxicated. - 91.6% of Americans use a seat belt every time they drive. - In 2022, 50% of all automobile fatalities where the driver or passenger died came from the 8.4% who were not wearing a seatbelt. - Buckling up is actually more effective in preventing deaths while in a light SUV or truck than in a sedan. quote:Overview https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-safety/seat-belts
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Feb 6, 2024 17:53
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Angry_Ed posted:And yet somehow the citizens of the US and their goldfish memory think Trump/Republicans are better on the economy. If you are in the top 20% of incomes, earn most of your money from corporate profits or business passthrough income, are an American steelworker who is not one of the few that will be laid off due to trade war policies, and aren't an illegal immigrant then these will probably be "better on the economy" for you. It seems unlikely that those situations apply to most of the roughly 55% of Americans who think that these policies will be better for lowering inflation, though. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:14 on Feb 6, 2024 |
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Feb 6, 2024 17:57
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Xand_Man posted:Also you live like a monk and will be unaffected by price shocks from the trade war If you're in one of those categories, then $6 trillion in tax cuts will do a lot to smooth out a roughly 13.8% increase in prices. That is about $87,000 per year less in taxes for the top 1% vs. a roughly $47 higher average grocery bill. Also, according to the Trump campaign economists, deregulation, unleashing American energy production, and the corporate tax cuts will supercharge the economy and raise incomes to combat that price increase. So, it is slightly unfair to say that those policies will result in a 13.8% real income decrease for the average person since there will likely be a non-zero amount they "get back" in tax cuts or economic growth. Although, most of the tax cuts for lower-income households come from making the existing Trump tax cuts permanent, so that isn't actually a net change from right now and is just a net change against a hypothetical 2026 where the tax rates go up. Still, it is likely going to result in a real income decrease for most people unless the supercharged economy from those policies performs above all expectations and estimates to an astonishing degree. It is also going to depend on your spending habits and what industry you work in as well. It isn't going to be totally evenly distributed in impact. The Lord of Hats posted:I know that it's ultimately a generational thing--I grew up with the Importance of Seatbelts being repeatedly hammered home in school, I don't think about buckling the seatbelt, it's pure muscle memory--but it's still wild to me that there's that many people who don't wear them. I feel less comfortable in a car without one, the snugness is nice. 92 out of 100 people wearing a seatbelt every time they drive is a remarkably successful public safety campaign. It is still crazy that there are tens of millions of people who don't wear seatbelts in 2024, but 92% compliance is really good. It was only 11% in 1982. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:23 on Feb 6, 2024 |
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Feb 6, 2024 18:14
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Right. This new "policy" is just a complicated version of "purge the brown" where "brown" here means "immigrant." It should not be understood as an actual attempt to achieve economic goals; such would be accepting republican pretense rather than rejecting it. Very large tax cuts for wealthy individuals and businesses paired with sharp reductions in social spending is basically the oldest and purest form of Republican economic goals.
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Feb 6, 2024 18:35
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VikingofRock posted:This is probably my biggest complaint about the NHTSA: their car safety regulations often ignore pedestrians / bicyclists / people in other cars. Car safety tests are all about how well your car protects you from death, not about how well it prevents death in general, so we get a ridiculous car size arms race. When giant SUVs and pick-ups are rated as "safe", it's because our concept of car safety is "kill the other guy". They have other studies and their annual safety stats include pedestrian deaths. It's just that in a study about seatbelt efficacy, you are by definition not including pedestrians because they have no seatbelts.
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Feb 6, 2024 19:11
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Angry_Ed posted:There's no way prices are going to go down in any appreciable way, when companies are already making continuously increasing profits and then they get another tax cut on top of that. The theory isn't that tax cuts will cause them to lower prices. It's that the tax cuts and deregulation will supercharge the economy and raise wages, so that 13.8% price increase from tariffs (which are tax increases) will be countered by the growth leading to real income increases for Americans despite higher nominal prices.
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Feb 6, 2024 19:14
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A jury in Michigan, for the first time in American history, held the parent of a minor mass shooter criminally liable for her son's mass shooting. She was convicted on 4 counts of involuntary manslaughter. Since it is hard to keep track of all the mass shootings over the last few years, this was a school shooting where the mother was found to: - Have given her son the gun. - Texted her son to do a better job hiding bullets after he was caught with them in school and got in trouble. - Let her son keep the semi-automatic handgun she bought him unlocked in his room. - Covered for her son when he was caught multiple times making threats to shoot up the school and writing out his plans in notebooks. - Let her son bring the gun to school, but told him not to take it out or get caught with it. She says that she never believed that her son was capable of mass murder, so all of her actions were done within that context and she wasn't responsible for his actions. The prosecution alleged that her level of negligence was so high that it qualified for involuntary manslaughter and the jury agreed. https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1754938615430308115 quote:Jennifer Crumbley, mother of Ethan Crumbley, found guilty of involuntary manslaughter in son’s school shooting https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/jennifer-crumbley-trial-verdict-rcna136937 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Feb 6, 2024 |
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Feb 6, 2024 19:54
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FistEnergy posted:You're absolutely correct, but this is also the Democrats as well. It's a frustrating, neverending team sport. Skex posted:Bullshit, this is not a loving both sides thing and pretending that it is is pure right-wing rhetoric. FistEnergy is correct that a large chunk of Democrats absolutely view politics as a team sport rather than about the specifics of public policy because most people don't know many specifics about public policy and take their cues from leaders they trust. This is extremely clear from public polling and human behavior in general. I think he is wrong in comparing the current situation. The Republicans getting most of their border demands attached to a broader spending bill, having nearly every elected official turn around and oppose their own bill because Trump wanted to keep the issue alive for the election, and 3/4 of Republican voters approving despite spending years saying that border security was of cataclysmic importance is actually unprecedented. It would be like if after they spent 2 years negotiating Obamacare, then Obama announced that he wanted to keep healthcare as an issue for the next election, hundreds of elected Democrats all swapped and voted down the Obamacare bill, and registered Democrats went from 90% in support to 80% opposed to government subsidized healthcare in 72 hours. It is pretty much unprecedented for every elected official and nearly every voter in a national political party to swap positions on an issue that they have rated their #1 most important issue for years in less than 3 days because one person said to. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Feb 6, 2024 |
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Feb 6, 2024 20:12
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mobby_6kl posted:Is this the first time the parents have been prosecuted? It's not the first time parents have ever been prosecuted, but it is extremely rare. I can only remember one case from a few years ago when a women was found guilty and put on probation because she didn't take her mentally ill son's guns away after he was convicted of a crime and went on to shoot up his school (nobody died). There's probably a couple others in history, but it is extremely rare to be prosecuted and they have never successfully done it until today.
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Feb 6, 2024 20:16
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Kagrenak posted:Here's an article from when they were charged. It seems like one parent once was prosecuted for child neglect and one or two others might've gotten hit with illegal guns charges but that's not directly related to the shooting per se. This seems to be the first prosecution of a homicide crime against parents of a shooter for sure. Thank you for the article. That was the case I was thinking of. I had it slightly off, though. He threatened to shoot up his school, but wasn't actually convicted of a crime before he later shot up the school. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:30 on Feb 6, 2024 |
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Feb 6, 2024 20:22
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The Glumslinger posted:It in fact is extremely precedented, didn't this happen in 2013 with the gang of 8 immigration deal that Boehner refused to bring up for a vote in the house people there was enough bipartisan support to pass it and Republicans didn't want to give Obama a win (and take away a big argument about Obama's crisis) before a midterm election The Gang of 8 bill was failing because a chunk of Republicans (and Democrats) opposed it from the start. The fact that there was bipartisan support to pass it was the problem. The equivalent would be if every member of the Gang of 8 denounced their own ideas and then voted it down because Mitt Romney called on them to do it and then 3/4 of Republican voters across the country who had been saying immigration was their #1 issue for two years changed their mind to say, "Nah, it can wait another year. It's good that the policies I supported aren't being passed now."
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Feb 6, 2024 20:28
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bird food bathtub posted:I don't think we're at the breaking dawn of a new day where parents of school shooters are convicted on the regular, because most people when their child texts them saying they're hearing voices and that the demon in the kitchen is throwing bowls around would probably not text back saying "suck it up" and then continue to let them have an unsecured gun and ammunition in their bedroom. I agree that it is almost never going to really happen again, but it is still pretty striking. Despite her (and her husband's) repeated and wild negligence, she is probably correct that basically no mother assumes that their kid is going to become a mass murderer and acts with that information in mind. It is extremely rare to hold parents criminally responsible for almost anything their minor child does, let alone multiple manslaughter charges that can carry a prison sentence of up to 15 years.
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Feb 6, 2024 20:34
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Angry_Ed posted:There's a big loving difference between "assuming one's kid becomes a school shooter" and "repeatedly ignores all red flags to the point of giving him a gun and advice to hide the bullets better". Right. I agree with the decision. I am just saying that it was literally unprecedented for a reason and it wasn't totally clear from the start that this would be the outcome. Her attorney's argument that we almost never hold parents (criminally) accountable for the violence of their children in other situations isn't incorrect.
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Feb 6, 2024 20:40
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Pennsylvania's Governor is calling on the state to legalize marijuana. The new Democratic House will start drafting a bill, but they only have a 1-vote majority. The Republicans have a 6-vote majority in the state Senate. It's not clear how many Republicans would be willing to support legalization (or if there are any specifics re: taxes or regulations that disagreements between pro-legalization Democrats or Republicans could end up killing any potential bill), so it isn't a sure thing. If Pennsylvania does legalize it, that would make it the 25th state and recreational marijuana would then be legal in half the states. https://twitter.com/GovernorShapiro/status/1754935387816935752 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Feb 6, 2024 |
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Feb 6, 2024 20:54
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They delayed the supplemental bill for 4 months because Republicans demanded that border security provisions be attached to it or they wouldn't bring it up for a vote. Now, they are demanding they bring the supplemental bill up for a vote without the border security provisions they demanded 4 months ago. One of the provisions in the bill was an increase in LIHEAP funding for the 2023 winter, so I wonder if that is still in there. https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1754954690087780530
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Feb 6, 2024 21:15
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koolkal posted:It's amusing that this is the 2nd Dem president in a row where Republicans have saved the country from a lovely bill. It's bonkers that Republicans have basically had some of the major policy goals they have been pursuing for decades handed to them on a silver platter, but lost everything because they were bundled with a few things Democrats wanted. And even more bonkers that it happened again 10 years later. If you are someone who prefers Republican public policy, then it must be infuriating that they refuse to take the win.
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Feb 6, 2024 21:23
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The Lord of Hats posted:No, no, this isn't the same thing. I don't know if they are planning on including everything that was in the original supplemental bill from October, but there was flood relief for New York/Florida and some other things that Republicans supported as well. But, yes, they are now pretty much demanding that they pass a bill that Democrats originally wanted to pass and will only vote for it if they remove the parts they originally demanded be added.
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Feb 6, 2024 21:42
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This is what was in the original October version of the supplemental bill:quote:- Humanitarian and military aid for Ukraine. It's not clear from their public statements whether they are including all of that or just the foreign aid packages. Some of it, like LIHEAP funding for winter, doesn't make much sense now if it won't be available until April.
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Feb 6, 2024 21:46
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The first phase of the new IRS enforcement project is set to begin this year. This initial expanded phase is limited in scope while they train and set up the new auditing divisions. The individual and business audit divisions established by the IRA won't both be fully up and running until 2026. This year, they are focusing on the top 10,000 highest-income individual taxpayers and the top 350 corporations with overdue, complicated, or unpaid taxes and expect to pull in an average of $85.1 billion in extra revenue per year over the next 10 years. Last year, the tax gap (the gap between taxes officially owed and the amount collected) hit a record high of just over $600 billion. Based on the preliminary data, the IRS expects to capture between 20 and 25 percent of the owed and unpaid taxes this year. They also expect to roughly triple the audit rate for individuals with income over $400,000 this year and roughly double the audit rate of corporations with at least $1 billion in revenue by next year. Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) says these are "pie in the sky" estimates and if they end up being accurate will actually be the result of increased enforcement on people making less than $75,000. He says the number one priority of the Ways and Mean Committee next year will be to defund the remaining $60 billion in IRS funding provided by the IRA. https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1755052550858965387 quote:WASHINGTON (AP) — The IRS is poised to take in hundreds of billions of dollars more in overdue and unpaid taxes than previously anticipated, according to new analysis released Tuesday by the Treasury Department and the IRS.
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Feb 7, 2024 15:03
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The head of data science and polling for Global Strategy Groups posted a long breakdown of all of their data and publicly available polling data about the 2024 election and Biden's approvals specifically. Not too many big surprises, but some interesting notes: - Biden has lost the largest approval rating among voters 18-29 and black voters compared to 2020. - These are generally progressive-leaning groups, however his deterioration is almost all with 18-29 and black voters who identify as moderate. His decline among voters who identify as left of center has been much smaller. - There is a huge variance in polling subsamples for 18-29 voters. Biden is either going to do slightly better than he did in 2020, about the same, or do 23 points worse than he did in 2020 among voters 18-29. Multiple polls they consider credible have shown all of those results. - Trump has a similar situation with black and Hispanic voters. His numbers for them are all over the map. Trump will either do about the same as he did in 2020, slightly better than he did in 2020, or "the biggest single-election shift & the strongest performance for a GOP presidential candidate among Hispanics in 60+ years." Several polls have shown all three results. - Biden has seen a dramatic drop in support among independents compared to 2020 and that is consistent across all major polls. - One weird area of positive change for Biden is that he is actually slightly leading among voters 65+ and that is the one demographic he is doing noticeably better with compared to 2020. - The two biggest policy issues hurting Biden are inflation (specifically grocery store prices) and immigration. Nothing else comes close. - The one single personal issue that is hurting Biden the most is age. - The two biggest issues boosting Biden are Abortion and fear of Trump/defending democracy. - Third party candidates seem to be taking votes from Trump and Biden almost equally (with slightly more coming from Biden). This indicates that there are protest votes/people dissatisfied with both candidates. - In a twist from historical norms, Biden does much better among likely voters than registered voters. This implies that higher turnout may actually be good for Trump and lower turnout good for Biden. This is likely the result of higher education voters (who are much more likely to vote) drifting towards Democrats over the last 10 years and white people with no degree (who are much less likely to vote) drifting towards Republicans over the last 10 years. - RFK Jr. is still pulling low double digits in most polls. It seems incredibly unlikely he will get that much in the actual election, especially since he isn't even trying to get on the ballot in a lot of states. - Another big uncertainty is that Biden has a huge advantage among likely voters who say they dislike both candidates. It's not clear how that will play out in the final results. - Another huge uncertainty is how voters say they will respond if Trump is convicted of a felony. His total vote count would plummet by about 7% according to some polls. tl;dr: Biden is objectively polling worse now than he was in 2020. However, the election results have huge potential variances from third party voters, wide ranges in demographic subsamples, and uncertain turnout models. Which polls are more accurate at predicting 18-29, Hispanic, and black voter choices, what happens with Trump's criminal trials, if there are any big changes in opinion or salience of inflation/immigration/abortion issues before November, and how voters who claim they are voting for a third party candidate or say they dislike both candidates end up voting will determine which polls were more accurate. Either way, a moderately big victory by either candidate is a real possibility, but a very close race is the most likely outcome (according to polling right now). There is a tremendous degree of uncertainty in the polling, though. 2020 had a significantly narrower band of potential results and fewer large outliers than 2024 - despite the ongoing pandemic. So, the numerous potential variables and sampling models among different pollsters are producing a wide range of results. https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1755239213375590454 https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1755240786696814695 https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1755241650643697829 https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1755241804205535710 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Feb 7, 2024 |
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Feb 7, 2024 16:17
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