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Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


haveblue posted:

It sounds like you could get in trouble if the gender marker on your license doesn’t match the gender marker on your other identifying documents. Or if a cop thinks your gender marker and presentation don’t match

It states pretty clearly that they're defining "gender" as your biological sex at birth, and that anyone whose license does not match that is subject to civil and criminal penalties. There is no getting around this. They are doing this because they want to ruin the lives of trans people in any way that they can.

Florida is going full fascist and any LGBTQ+ people still living there need to try to figure out how to move away, especially trans people.

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Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


haveblue posted:

Don't forget that a lot of Democratic voters do want something to be done about the border without giving much thought to what exactly, so telling them "we tried to do something about the border, but Republicans stopped us" is actually what they want to hear

This. The actual policy details don't matter to the vast majority of Americans. Literally all they have to say is that quote.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


So if I'm trans and I can't afford to leave the country or move to a blue state, should I just get ready to die now? Because if something doesn't change soon, it's looking like Biden is going to lose, which means that Trump will be able to enact Project 2025 and kill me and my entire community. I really don't see a way out of this. Should I just run to a blue state anyway even if I have no job lined up, or don't have very much money? (not that blue states are going to be much safer either)

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


A Meatslab posted:

Legit, what is this sentiment based on? I'm also trans and terrified Trump even having a sneeze of a chance in the general.

Between:

- Democrats electorally overperforming expectations over the past few years.
- Abortion rights being a major driver to the polls.
- Economic factors steadily trending positively in terms of stabilized inflation, high chance of interest rates coming down, wages catching up with inflation despite sentiments of doom (see the statistics around majority of Americans rating themselves as financially stable but thinking other Americans are not)
- Anti-LGBT laws and culture war bullshit being a bigger turn-off for moderate voters than Republicans anticipated
- Labor steadily seizing back power in a number of historic strikes
- Replubicans in Congress and in state houses shooting themselves in the foot constantly in between losing funding and having members retire
- NATO countries picking up slack and steadily spinning up defense production to counter Russia
- Trump having demonstrably attempted insurrection and being under 91 indictments since losing the election.
- Several bipartisan economic and infrastructure initiatives coming online
- Student loan forgiveness, though reduced in scope, managing to happen in a significant way despite SCOTUS interference


Why is it obvious Democrats are slated to lose? Gaza, immigration issues, and Biden's age absolutely albatrosses around their collective necks, but how does that mean they are absolutely gping to lose?

Because despite all of that, Trump is still leading Biden in literally all of the swing states based on polling, and is even winning national polls by a little.

It's still early, polls can be wrong, and things can change, but Biden is historically unpopular because people are still pissed off about inflation and because he's incredibly old. There is not much more that can be done about inflation and the economy (which has slowly gotten better, and can still improve as the year goes by) but the age issue is definitely not going to go away. At least switching to a younger candidate could fix that, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. We're stuck with Biden, and it's a huge risk considering the current situation and what's at stake.

e: immigration is also a huge issue according to polling, and because the Dems have just sat on their hands and allowed Republicans to dominate the narrative every step of the way, I don't have high hopes that they'll be able to win back the American people on this issue.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


Mormon Star Wars posted:

Never get ready to die. There's never a reason to capitulate to someone coming after your community, and if they want you dead, it should be their problem, not yours. The future is uncertain, but your own dignity is certain, and you should not give it up pre-emptively. We are not alone in these situations - you mentioned your entire community, and the trans community has incredibly strong bonds because of their shared struggle. You are not alone even besides that - trans people came before you and people wanted to wipe them out, but trans people persevered, and you are still here.

Yes, you'd be safer in a blue state. But if you are worried that it still wouldn't be safe enough, and that a fight is inevitable, then it's better to focus on what you can control: Your community, your loved ones, your dignity, and your self-respect.

(Also, the future is really uncertain, things are way to in flux to be like "Yeah, Trump is going to win." You should still get ready to fight for your dignity all the time, though!)

For what it's worth, I appreciated your post. I am not optimistic about whatever the future holds, but I will try to focus on the present and make it as good as I can.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


zoux posted:

You may or may have not heard that there was an attempted mass shooting at Lakewood Church in Houston (Osteen's church) on Sunday. The discourse on this one is going to be intolerable, as the perpetrator ended up being a trans woman with "Free Palestine" written on her AR-15. She was stopped by "good guys with guns", so this will perfectly slot into the conservative narrative on guns and mass shootings. (That the off duty cops returning fire likely shot a child who is not expected to survive will be omitted of course).

Fox is already visibly erect over it



The shooter wasn't trans. It's another loving hoax that chuds are pushing and you really shouldn't post poo poo like this before actual authorities confirm it. They've been trying to do this for almost every single mass shooting lately.

https://x.com/Esqueer_/status/1757141101725786617?s=20

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


Atahualpa posted:

As far as NYT/Haberman articles about Trump go, this one doesn't strike me as that bad? It's been clear for a while now that he or at least his campaign team recognizes the unpopularity of extreme right-wing views on abortion and that they're trying to thread the needle on the issue in a way that the true believers in the party aren't. That's something that Democratic politicians and supporters need to recognize and be prepared to counter. Otherwise he has the potential to completely deflate the issue's electoral potency by sounding more reasonable on it than most Republicans and pursuing his old strategy of saying things that sound agreeable to the wider electorate, comfortable in the fact that he won't lose support among his right-wing base who believe that he's on their side and just saying that poo poo to get elected.

Luckily Dems already have experience countering this strategy; the Virginia elections had Glenn Youngkin and the GOP attempting to be "reasonable" by supporting a 15 week ban with exceptions, and they got smoked.

People just do not like restrictions on abortion no matter how reasonable they are made to sound. I don't really think that there's much Trump can do about this; he's the one who created the current situation in the first place. Talking about abortion at all is just going to hurt his chances in the general election.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


B B posted:

These were the Virginia election results:



The Democrats did come out on top, but I'd hardly call this "getting smoked." Public opinion is fortunately on the Democratic Party's side on this issue, but it's not a silver bullet. There were enough close races that this could have easily flipped, as well.

You're right that "getting smoked" is probably overstating it, but I do think that if Trump loses, it's going to be because of abortion. It's a massive issue that affects literally half the people in the country, Democrat or Republican. I just don't think that any strategy other than avoiding the topic/deflecting to other issues is going to work for Trump. The more abortion is being talked about and the less the economy/immigration/other issues are being talked about, the better Biden's chances are.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


koolkal posted:

Also getting rid of Garland would make Biden seem pretty incompetent (which is very true in this case) since he's the one who chose of his own accord to hire him.

Trump had fired like half of his entire cabinet by the time his term ended. But of course if Biden does it once it looks oh so awful for him

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


This is a minor point but saying "transwomen" is not correct. It's like saying "blackwomen" or "gaymen" which nobody ever does for those groups.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


Halloween Jack posted:

So people should ignore their concerns over the actual genocide, happening right now, because of what you predict will happen in the future? Why are gay and trans Americans more real and more human to you than Palestinians?

I'm trans. My identity is not a tool for you to whip votes for Genocide Joe.

Also, when did God come down from heaven and write in stone that Trump will be worse than Biden on Israel? I see no reason to believe that's the case. Trump doesn't care about anything but his public image and feeling important; that could well be more responsive to public pressure than Biden, who is a gleefully genocidal advocate for Israel and doesn't appear to care what anyone thinks. Trump, as far as I know, hasn't committed blood libel against Palestinians.

I'm trans as well. I don't think that Palestinians are less real and less human, but they're half a world away and I would like for my existence to not be made illegal. I'd like to not be forcibly detransitioned/thrown into prison for simply existing/whatever other vile poo poo a Trump administration would do to me. So, I'm voting Biden. I have to look out for myself and those I care about.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


mutata posted:

lol if this is all objectively true, then who the gently caress cares? If your view is objectively true, then we're all already WELL into the Cool Zone and there's no return, at least not in our lifetime without a bunch of massive war, so go get high and watch a movie, poo poo.

This is literally where I'm at lol. Enjoy the treats and bread and circuses and loved ones for as long as you can. The world is and will remain a brutal place for a lot of people, and if you are not one of those people, be grateful and appreciate what you have.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


Halloween Jack posted:

I remember arguing in 2004 that if we settle for lovely Democratic candidates, we would eventually be having precisely the argument that we're having now.

I'd just prefer people not use the threat of Trump to shame/threaten people to try to get them to vote for Biden. It's obscene. I have no interest in fanfiction about Donald the Dove, just as I don't care for fanfiction about how he's going to declare himself the Emperor Fuhrer.

What's the connection between voting for Biden and thwarting anti-trans legislation? Anti-trans legislation is generally unpopular and a big electoral loser for Republicans. Most of these bills are at the state level, though there was a big surge at the federal level last year. How many more will be introduced under Trump than Biden? How many will pass? What positive effect will Trump's election have on passing these bills? We don't know.

It looks to me like activism at the state and local level is way more meaningful to trans rights than the choice between Biden and Trump. The good news is that if the centrist argument is true, you can not vote for Biden on Tuesday and on Wednesday go right back to protesting whatever cornfed lunatic is trying to outlaw our existence.

Do you not know anything about the conservative plan to reshape the executive branch?

Trump will fire tens of thousands of federal workers and replace them with as many loyalists as he can. He will weaponize the FDA. The people that he places in charge will withdraw approval of abortion, birth control and HRT medications. Access to medical equipment to perform surgical abortions will also be restricted. This will cover all 50 states. Every department will scrap every last LGBTQ+ protection that they can get their hands on.

Trump does not need legislation to do any of this. As a trans person do you seriously not know about all of this poo poo? Have you not heard a thing about Project 2025? It's not "fanfiction", it's a 920-page document written by over a hundred conservative organizations like the Heritage Foundation. If Trump wins, all of this poo poo will happen and we will not be coming back from it.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


They're probably correctly guessing that Biden's not going to do poo poo about their defiance. Just like he hasn't done poo poo about half of America's trans kids losing healthcare

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


Raenir Salazar posted:

Do you have evidence for the former or an argument that there's a relevant link between these two statements and third evidence that he has in fact not done anything about the latter claim or that its in his power to do so?

And now you want to loving argue. Why is it that red state governors/GOP leadership can increasingly do whatever they want, but when Biden does jack poo poo in response y'all are like BuT hE cAn'T bEcAuSe LaWs

The GOP just keeps taking more and more poo poo from trans people with barely a peep from the Biden admin and y'all are like HeS jUsT a SmOl BeAn

He won't even stand up to Florida when they invalidate trans people's driver's licenses and call them fraudsters, even though he could easily do something since they're not complying with the federal REAL ID requirements. That's an easy one to fight! If he won't even do that then idk why you think he'll fight the more serious poo poo

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


Kagrenak posted:

What, specifically, would you have him do about what the red states are doing? I'm legitimately interested to hear it.

I don't know, I'm not the loving president! I'm not the most powerful person in the world with practically unlimited resources who's currently sitting on his hands while like half the states in the union are marching toward making it illegal for me to exist. I'm just a loving dumb nerd who wants to enjoy the treats of life without having to worry about being directly targeted by my state government (and soon to be federal if Trump wins, jesus christ I'll probably be loving dead in a year or two if that happens lol)

The only things currently helping the situation are state/local organizations fighting this poo poo, and court decisions that go in our favor. But state/local organizing can only do so much, and not all the court battles will be won because some courts are packed with MAGA judges, including SCOTUS. All of this poo poo should already be federally illegal because the PPACA says you can't discriminate based on sex, among other things, but I guess that doesn't count for trans people because ~reasons~

edit: also, gently caress you! I mean seriously, gently caress you. Quit loving sealioning with stupid questions like this, I see what you're doing.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Queering Wheel fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Apr 30, 2024

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


Fart Amplifier posted:

So he should do something, but you don't know what it is, and you're going to yell and scream at anyone who asks you what you think he should do.

Uh, yeah?

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


Raenir Salazar posted:

Holy Argument of Theseus Batman! That's a rather unfair way of describing the back and forth! The contents Queering Wheel's post is not conceptually the samething as the concerns of transpeople, and people disagreeing with the argument of Queering Wheel's post is not saying that transpeople being worried is performative or illegitimate. Only that certain specific arguments and claims being made, disputable and asking for elaboration and evidence regarding the lack of action by the Biden Administration to do something about it.

Just wondering, do you also say "blackpeople" or "gaypeople" when you're talking about those groups? If not, then why are you doing it for trans people?

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


Kagrenak posted:

PPACA isn't going to override direct state bans on providing care. It regulates the insurance industry, not what treatments the states can or cannot ban. The state bans don't care about who's paying, they directly criminalize the care.

I'm also trans but I'm personally insulated, living in Massachusetts and being somewhat well off. I'm asking questions because I thought you might've read something which laid out a plan Biden could be following to help other trans people in red states but instead you're vaguely angry because he's not doing things you're not even sure about.

Also gently caress you too and your insinuation of bad faith. What should I do instead? Should I be incurious and generally angry ? If you haven't seen a plan of action, what would you even pressure him to do? I'm not sealioning I'm asking for actual loving discussion and reasoning! Without a plan all you're doing is wallowing with no path to actual activism.

Biden's administration could sue every red state doing this for discriminating against trans people on the basis of sex, using the same logic as the Bostock and Obergefell decisions. There's one of my ideas. Maybe it won't work, I don't know. Again, I'm not the loving president. All I know is that half the trans kids in America can't get healthcare, trans adults in Florida straight up aren't safe there because their HRT has also been heavily restricted on top of the harshest bathroom ban in the country, and Biden has failed to stop any of it. Maybe he could send federal agents to Florida and loving arrest the officials who are endangering trans lives by taking away the medication that they need in order to live. Maybe he could direct the FDA to make HRT easier to access over-the-counter nationwide like they've already done with mifepristone. I'm not a policy wonk but it's not like nobody has talked about these ideas before.

Also, I don't believe you. I think you were being dishonest when you asked "What, specifically, would you have him do about what the red states are doing?" because the same question has been asked so many times whenever people are unhappy about Biden's inaction on other issues, not just trans issues.

Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011



Did you link the wrong thing? This article is from a year ago, not three days ago, and it's talking about a lawsuit that hasn't been successful. Tennessee trans kids still don't have healthcare as of today.

e: here's an article that IS from this year and describes what a hellscape TN has become for LGBTQ people

https://www.hrc.org/press-releases/...in-recent-years

Queering Wheel fucked around with this message at 09:02 on Apr 30, 2024

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Queering Wheel
Jun 18, 2011


If the polls really are wrong, then how come the same polls saying Trump has a slight lead are also saying that many Democratic congresspeople in those states have slight leads or better?

I don't doubt that phone polling has gotten worse, but it also feels like maybe Biden is underperforming his own party.

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