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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 24 hours!
Game theory requires that I never vote because it is almost statistically impossible that my individual vote will make the difference and the cost of my time is too high. But, if everyone knew that, then it would become a collective action problem.

So, the most optimal form of electoralism is to not vote, but strongly encourage everyone else to vote for their preferred candidate.

The ideal scenario is 99.99% turnout with you as the sole abstention.

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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 24 hours!
We have already solved the problem of electoralism with math.

Game theory dictates that your individual vote will have an almost statistically non-existent chance to impact the outcome of the election, but if everyone acts that way it becomes a collective action problem that does impact the outcome.

Therefore, the only solution is to encourage everyone else to vote, do whatever you want on election day, and don't let anyone else know what you did.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 24 hours!

I was following you up until this point, because "I would prefer the outcome where all trans medicine and civil rights will be banned because Biden has released legal reforms that protect the legal rights of trans people in all areas except for public school athletics (which he has said will be coming separately, but hasn't been released yet)" is a really weird conclusion to reach following the statement "I care about trans rights."

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 24 hours!
If I were deciding how to vote, then I would simply assess the policies of the two candidates and then select the one whose overall platform is closer to my preference.

For example, if you considered Sonia Sotomayor a better Justice than Clarence Thomas, then I would vote for the candidate who would appoint more justices like Sonia Sotomayor to replace her and not the candidate that would replace her with someone more like Clarence Thomas.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 24 hours!

Fister Roboto posted:

I don't care how other people plan to vote, but I do find it disturbing that there doesn't seem to be any lower bound for voting for the lesser evil. And there's a pretty obvious trend of having to accept greater and greater evil for that strategy, to the absurd point where we're arguing over whether it's acceptable to vote for the guy who is literally funding a genocide. I really don't think that can be stressed enough. What are you going to be asked to support in 2028, as long as the other guy is worse? What are you willing to support? Is there ever going to be a point where both parties are too repugnant to vote for?

I voted for Biden in 2020. I knew that there were credible accusations of sexual assault against him, and to my shame I decided that that was an acceptable compromise compared to four more years of Trump. But now Biden has gone too far for me. I don't care that Trump will be worse. I do not want to give my support and the legitimacy that comes from my vote to either major candidate.

People keep bringing up the trolley problem, but it's really not that simple is it? Putting aside the fact that the trolley problem is a thought experiment with no objective correct answer. This isn't a simple matter of pulling a switch to save four people by sacrificing one. Instead, it's millions of people voting on whether to pull the switch or not, and some people's votes don't even count! Like I said in my previous post, I could vote to pull the switch and it wouldn't get pulled, or vice versa. And further down the line is another junction, with even more people tied to the track. This situation is absurd to me, and I think it's reasonable to want to say "this is completely hosed up, I'm not going to participate in it at all". Or at the very least "I'm going to vote for this third track that has no people tied to it, even if nobody else wants to vote for it for whatever reason."

Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be the nominees in the 2024 election in America. If either of them had lost the primary, then there would be different nominees.

You should generally vote for the outcome that will more closely match with your preferred outcome. If you think Donald Trump's policies are closer to your preferences, then you should probably vote for Donald Trump for President in 2024. If you think Joe Biden's policies are closer to your preferences, then you should probably vote for Joe Biden.

If you aren't sure, then an easy heuristic that I use is to read their positions on various issues, count the ones for each candidate that are closer to my preferences, and then select the one with the higher number.

It seems very unlikely that both candidates have an equal number of issues that are identical to your preferred outcome, but if that is the case, then you can either flip a coin or not vote at all because each outcome will literally result is as many issues being equally as close to your preferred outcome as the other.

There will be upcoming primaries for President that will begin in 2027 and many state issues (such as ballot measures and local elections) that will occur in 2024, 2026, and 2028 (or 2025 if you live in New Jersey or Virginia). For those, I generally follow a similar heuristic process.

In 2028, I will likely cast a vote in the primary for the candidate that most closely matches my preferred policy outcomes to assist them in securing the nomination.

Regardless, you can probably rest easy because your individual vote is not a moral act and has an incredibly statistically improbably chance of being the sole vote responsible for changing an outcome, so you will only be making a difference in a collective action context. Your vote, regardless of who it is for, will also not preclude you from participating in public life in other ways, so there isn't any concern about an opportunity cost or zero-sum choice between voting or other activities.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:29 on May 9, 2024

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