|
SMEGMA_MAIL posted:It's not. In fact, almost any action seeking to bring an end to the genocide in Gaza or make Israel weaker is a probably a net positive by any reasonable accounting. Given 100% of the civilian causalities so far have been civilians in Yemen and Gaza, the focus on the Houthis is strange. The only civilians killed by Houthi forces are Yemenis on the other side of the civil war, and that I would agree is entirely unrelated to the Israel thing as much as anything can be in the middle east. Hmmm, well you're not posting it directly to CSPAM this time. Is there an offsite discord?
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 2, 2024 21:57 |
|
|
psydude posted:Ok but how is attacking civilian shipping from uninvolved countries furthering these objectives. The UK is not an uninvolved country (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:19
|
|
|
SMEGMA_MAIL posted:The UK is not an uninvolved country The ship is owned by a company in the Marshall Islands. Even if the beneficial owner is in the UK, this is like blowing up the Amazon Prime delivery contractor's leased van because you have a beef with Enterprise. LightPole and a few others have written extensively in various threads about how little of an effect this has on the ship owner, just due to the way the global maritime industry is run. The only people that will really feel an effect from it, aside from anyone who lives around the Red Sea, are the companies just had their fertilizer orders cancelled.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:22
|
|
|
psydude posted:The ship is owned by a company in the Marshall Islands. Even if the beneficial owner is in the UK, this is like blowing up the Amazon Prime delivery contractor's leased van because you have a beef with Enterprise. LightPole and a few others have written extensively in various threads about how little of an effect this has on the ship owner, just due to the way the global maritime industry is run. So what would you say the Houthis should do in their campaign, given what weapons they have available because they, unlike say Israel who just this week has killed or wounded thousands of starving people with weapons we supplied them, that could possibly have an effect on Israel?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:28
|
|
|
It's good that there is an environmental catastrophe brewing in the Red Sea. As it kills all the sea life and further aggravates the food security of the region, we will all be reminded of the Houthis, and how they brought Israel to heel by shooting at civilian ships.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:28
|
|
Cugel the Clever posted:I'm not sure why you think your question is some kind of gotcha. Pointing out that a conflict ongoing for almost 15 years that you’re criticizing and trying to frame based on events of only a few months isn’t a exactly a gotcha, sorry. I honestly don’t give a poo poo about either side in the Yemeni civil war but to only link it to Israel-Palestine seems needlessly reductive and ignores a much longer running conflict.
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:30
|
|
|
Grip it and rip it posted:It's good that there is an environmental catastrophe brewing in the Red Sea. As it kills all the sea life and further aggravates the food security of the region, we will all be reminded of the Houthis, and how they brought Israel to heel by shooting at civilian ships. Food security in the region would probably most quickly be fixed by bombing the IDF, rather than (continuing) to bomb and blockade the Houthis
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:31
|
|
|
SMEGMA_MAIL posted:Food security in the region would probably most quickly be fixed by bombing the IDF, rather than (continuing) to bomb and blockade the Houthis Yeah and if bullfrogs had wings they wouldn't bump their asses when they hop. The options available to everyone are constrained by other real world realities. Just wanting it to be different won't make it so.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:34
|
|
|
SMEGMA_MAIL posted:So what would you say the Houthis should do in their campaign, given what weapons they have available because they, unlike say Israel who just this week has killed or wounded thousands of starving people with weapons we supplied them, that could possibly have an effect on Israel? As That Works just pointed out, the Yemeni Civil War has very little to do directly with Israel/Palestine. Militarily speaking, given that they don't even control the entirety of Yemen, their weapons would be better employed trying to take over the rest of the country from the UN-recognized government.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:34
|
|
|
so you're just gonna ignore my question
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:35
|
|
|
SMEGMA_MAIL posted:Food security in the region would probably most quickly be fixed by bombing the IDF, rather than (continuing) to bomb and blockade the Houthis Starting a regional war with a trigger-happy nuclear power will not improve food security in the Middle East and you have to be insane to think so regardless of your opinion on Gaza. Comrade Blyatlov posted:so you're just gonna ignore my question Israel is doing bad things, which means he doesn't have to answer you.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:38
|
|
|
psydude posted:As That Works just pointed out, the Yemeni Civil War has very little to do directly with Israel/Palestine. Militarily speaking, given that they don't even control the entirety of Yemen, their weapons would be better employed trying to take over the rest of the country from the UN-recognized government. It certainty would, which is why "cynical" is a strange characterization of their choice to take on the US, UK, Israel and a whole bunch of other countries to demand the end of the IDF's actions in Gaza. Grip it and rip it posted:Yeah and if bullfrogs had wings they wouldn't bump their asses when they hop. The options available to everyone are constrained by other real world realities. Just wanting it to be different won't make it so. It is... odd to talk about Houthis being a significant threat to food security specifically given the events of this week.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:38
|
|
|
Vincent Van Goatse posted:Israel is doing bad things, which means he doesn't have to answer you. i hate exemptions 
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:40
|
|
|
SMEGMA_MAIL posted:It is... odd to talk about Houthis being a significant threat to food security specifically given the events of this week. Well sinking a merchantman full of fertilizer is not going to help anyone's food security no matter what their stated motive.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:40
|
|
|
Maybe the leaking ships will kill all life in the Red Sea and save the Mediterranean from the Lessepsian migration.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:42
|
|
|
That Works posted:Pointing out that a conflict ongoing for almost 15 years that you’re criticizing and trying to frame based on events of only a few months isn’t a exactly a gotcha, sorry. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:47
|
|
|
I'm going to start dumping my car's spent oil into the storm drain for world peace. You're welcome.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:48
|
|
|
Just a reminder to please be nice to each others.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:49
|
|
|
Grip it and rip it posted:I'm going to start dumping my car's spent oil into the storm drain for world peace. You're welcome. you fool you should have claimed it was to calm the waves
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 00:53
|
|
|
Isn't the world of international shipping insanely hosed up and full of shell corps and flagging ships out of countries they aren't owned by in the name of being cheap?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 01:00
|
|
|
Fivemarks posted:Isn't the world of international shipping insanely hosed up and full of shell corps and flagging ships out of countries they aren't owned by in the name of being cheap? yes you could quite literally write a thesis on it and i suspect many have
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 01:00
|
|
|
There's a fairly beefy Wikipedia article on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_convenience The whole concept is pretty wild.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 01:01
|
|
|
Comrade Blyatlov posted:yes Okay, okay, so in that case hear me out: I don't think "This ship was flagged in (random third world country), that means it isn't a legitimate target in a war even if its owned through shell corps and shady dealings by a country supporting your enemy in the war" is legitimate- it doesn't matter where the ship is flagged, what matters is the ultimate actual owner and the owner of the goods on board, as well as where the goods are being shipped to. So if the Houthis were downing ships connected to, say, their Gulf Arab Enemies (the Saudis and the UAE) or their backers (The US and the UK, for instance), then that'd be perfectly legitimate, right?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 01:03
|
|
|
my eyes and brain hurt trying to read that sentence so i honestly cannot answer it which to be fair is probably part of the point of why ships are done that way (it's mostly $$$ but obscuring is part of the game too)
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 01:05
|
|
|
Hopefully Russia takes a cue from the Houthis and starts nuking all global trade hubs.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 01:13
|
|
|
Fivemarks posted:Okay, okay, so in that case hear me out: I don't think "This ship was flagged in (random third world country), that means it isn't a legitimate target in a war even if its owned through shell corps and shady dealings by a country supporting your enemy in the war" is legitimate- it doesn't matter where the ship is flagged, what matters is the ultimate actual owner and the owner of the goods on board, as well as where the goods are being shipped to. Let me throw another spanner in there: The nationality of the crew has no correlation with the nationality of the corporate entity that owns the ship, the person that pockets the money, or the flag of the ship. The guys getting shot at are from nations not involved in any of those conflicts. (Well, some of them might be Chinese.) The guys in the office collect the insurance, write off the residual loss and move on. poo poo some of them don’t even know the name of the ship. Comrade Blyatlov posted:you could quite literally write a thesis on it and i suspect many have It’s too broad a subject for a thesis. FrozenVent fucked around with this message at 01:18 on Mar 4, 2024 |
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 01:16
|
|
|
I'd also like to add that if it's a container ship - and almost all non-liquid non-vehicle cargo is containerised - you don't so much have a ship full of treats as you do whatever containers happen to be in port going to a particular destination at a particular time if this all sounds confusing, that's why global logistics is an entire discipline unto itself gets even more confusing when it comes to part-container loads! Comrade Blyatlov fucked around with this message at 01:31 on Mar 4, 2024 |
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 01:19
|
|
|
Man. I wonder what possible precedent the Yemeni people might have for interdiction shipping as a bargaining chip in international affairs. I wonder where they got the idea that blanket restrictions of civilian goods moving by sea as a means of putting economic pressure on political/military leaders was somehow 'legitimate' as a realpolitik tactic. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_Yemen https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_embargo_against_Cuba Or heck, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sound_Dues if you really want to stretch. Sarcasm aside, the Houthis are dealing with an asymmetry problem most equivalent to the Germans in WWI. The Brits absolutely violated the poo poo out of international law to starve out the Germans, but they were able to do it 'politely' by merely pointing the guns of their surface ships at neutral shipping and impounding them. The Germans tried this until they started getting lit up by Q boats and hunted by the Royal Navy. Plus they didn't have a safe port to direct interdicted ships to, so they had to turn to unrestricted submarine warfare. Since I've got Dune on the mind I'll badly paraphrase and misquote here: 'the power to destroy the absolute control over it.' It's a sort of economic Sampson option. Would the Fremen way of life end and their struggle come to naught if Paul killed the sand worms? Yes. Would that also gently caress over the Guild and the Imperial house? Also yes! So let's talk things out. Yes, we can bomb the poo poo out of the Houthis, but they're betting descion makers in the West (political or business) care more about a marginal uptick in insurance and/or shipping costs than they care about being bombed. Or, they can force the US to bomb them, which means planes/bombs/ships/missiles not being pass to the Ukrainians, or Israelis, or deterring China, or fattening up your favorite subcontractors. Why would the US care? 1. Maintaining secure and stable shipping lanes is a big Thing we can point to and say 'hey, our hegemony and the international order gives you this, wouldn't you rather be with us and not Putin/China/Iran'. Its also what we 'get' out of spending a crap ton on our navy. Having this threatened is both a bad look for the US re: convincing the world to play along, even when we do dipshit things like elect Trump and a bad look for US defense folks. Meanwhile, every military ship pulled to police the Red Sea is a ship not somewhere else doing something else. Even if the US is able to stomp out Houthi launch sites and such, it costs us somewhere else but the US absolutely can't *not* do something about this without 'losing face'. Negotiate or annihilate, that's fine. But just abandoning the Red Sea and telling the world 'gently caress it, go around until this Gaza thing wraps up' is not an option.That might sound dumb, but the credibility of your threats is a real Thing in international affairs and game theory and such. Given that the state of US Navy tempo has led the US navy to (I think) sink more tonnage through fatigue and command fuckups than the Houthis have with drones and missiles, I think they might have a better handle on this particular equation than a lot of high level US decision makers. This is *why* Panama/Malacca/the Suez/the Bosphorus etc. are or were once strategically important, even if it's somewhat unusual to enforce it with missiles. Niceties like which ship is flagged to what country or what counts as 'neutral' matters about as much as the ICJ if the US can't force the Houthis into international maritime law courts to answer for their crimes. Ordinance has a way of ignoring pieces of paper. the JJ fucked around with this message at 02:14 on Mar 4, 2024 |
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 01:55
|
|
|
Oh, and re: the PR war, I think the Houthis are betting that 20000 Gazan children are more sympathetic victims than nebulous shell companies, international shipping magnates, and the general concept of the Market, even if the deaths of the Gazan children are 'objectively' less impactful to my personal standard of living. That goes double or triple in that region as well.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 02:12
|
|
|
Maybe it's not the place of people sitting comfortably in developed countries to tell others how to appropriately resist imperialism? A militant in Yemen probably doesn't have a lot of context other than external forces trying to starve and bomb them, does anyone expect them to run modern IFF systems?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 02:16
|
|
|
AreWeDrunkYet posted:Maybe it's not the place of people sitting comfortably in developed countries to tell others how to appropriately resist imperialism? A militant in Yemen probably doesn't have a lot of context other than external forces trying to starve and bomb them, does anyone expect them to run modern IFF systems? They’re claiming to specifically target ships owned by corporations in specific country, so it looks like they bought themselves an AIS receiver (~$800) or a MarineTraffic subscription (free with ads).
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 02:24
|
|
|
I suspect the real winners will be whichever Houthi leadership are left standing to take credit for the eventual peace negotiations that cement the movement as the true governors of an archipelago of rubble titled "Yemen" and their loyal-or-dead followers. An uncomfortable pariah state will emerge to often threaten but rarely impose on the global order, and we'll once again be on the cusp of peace.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 02:31
|
|
|
AreWeDrunkYet posted:Maybe it's not the place of people sitting comfortably in developed countries to tell others how to appropriately resist imperialism? A militant in Yemen probably doesn't have a lot of context other than external forces trying to starve and bomb them, does anyone expect them to run modern IFF systems? If you claim to be the sovereign government and aspire to international recognition of that status then you get to deal with people having opinions about what you do. I don't think the Houthis give a rats rear end about what anyone on this forum thinks od their conduct.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 03:04
|
|
|
90% of everything travels by water, at least once. 10% of that moves through the Suez. Last I checked it was at 30% capacity. Theres also been a noticeable uptick in Chinese flags since the Houthis have said they wouldn't attack Chinese shipping. Some short term consequences of this are that Egypt is losing out on a lot of dollars (I don't have to be sympathetic to Sisi) in an already mismanaged economy. That means further regional instability with the brunt falling on the poor. South Sudan also receives its aid through Red Sea ports. This aid is also having trouble arriving, just another example of the systemic effects from attacking a major trade route. Isreal receives most of its trade through the Med, they aren't really having issues due to this. The 5th fleet might have some moldy apples but they aren't having trouble due to this, it just shows how weak our logistics capability is currently. Shipping does not carry loving treats. The US consumer will not notice a thing from this. This falls squarely on the poor. I'm not going to continue this due to the continued refusal to examine the systemic consequences and pretending like its accomplishing anything.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 03:18
|
|
|
There’s only like 2000 votes, but Haley beat Trump in the DC primary 63-33.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 03:43
|
|
|
lightpole posted:90% of everything travels by water, at least once. 10% of that moves through the Suez. Last I checked it was at 30% capacity. Theres also been a noticeable uptick in Chinese flags since the Houthis have said they wouldn't attack Chinese shipping. Are you suggesting this is a complex issue or something?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 03:46
|
|
|
Mr. Nice! posted:There’s only like 2000 votes, but Haley beat Trump in the DC primary 63-33. Who are these 2000 republicans in DC? congressional staffers?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 04:25
|
|
|
AreWeDrunkYet posted:Maybe it's not the place of people sitting comfortably in developed countries to tell others how to appropriately resist imperialism? Have you pulled the string on this argument to see where it goes, because I feel relatively confident it isn't anywhere good.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 04:28
|
|
|
Flikken posted:Who are these 2000 republicans in DC? congressional staffers? Well, I'd bet 63% of them are Democrats registering as Republicans to gently caress around with the GOP.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 04:30
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 2, 2024 21:57 |
|
|
DC has a sizable contingent of establishment Republicans who haaaaaaated Trump and I’d imagine all of them turned out to thumb their noses at him because they dread going back to work for the evil gently caress next year.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2024 04:48
|
|
