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We're seeing the convergence of a number of long term trends and policy settings contributing to it being absolutely broken. First, there were actually fewer houses/apartments per capita in the 1970s but society has radically changed in terms of how many people live in the same house - fewer kids, more divorces/single parents, people living longer (and outliving a partner longer), fewer intergenerational households. So social and demographic changes have significantly affected housing demand. People living longer has also meant holding onto property longer in the inner cities. Second, as discussed in the thread, policy settings from the Howard era (reinforced by inflationary state policies such as first home owner grants) have incentivised housing as an asset class for wealth accumulation. This has also affected construction and renovations as people have invested large amounts of capital to improve the value of rental/airbnb housing (especially obvious in coastal towns). State policy settings are also not great in their emphasis on stamp duty over land tax, which rewards people for hanging on to expensive property. Third our retirement system is brutal against people who don't own a house, so there is a lot of pressure to get on the ladder for long term security (or cash out super - again, this drives prices up). Fourth urbanisation and the hollowing out of regional towns. The global generators of economic growth and culture are the big cities and everyone wants to be there. It's also one of the most important things you can do to improve intergenerational mobility - take your kids and move them to a big city with good schools / connections. As other forms of social mobility have flattened out, moving house to desirable areas with high socio-economic communities remains one of the most desirable methods for lifting social status and opportunities for children. This further increases the value of inner city suburbs, which also cascades out. Note this is one of the key drivers you can see inflating housing in most OECD countries. Fifth the decline in price in almost everything else. Clothes, food etc is MOSTLY a lot cheaper than it used to be in real terms compared with several decades ago. You can go get several outfits at kmart, everything you need for a kitchen etc for negligible amounts of money due to globalisation and cheap labour in the developing world. This means people have more disposable income to sink into housing (which again, is perceived as a much better way to build status and wealth than spending money on more or less anything else). Another global problem. Sixth, the most desirable places to live in Australia are also some of the most desirable places to live globally. If you're rich, Sydney is one of the best places to live in the world - safe, great weather, great quality of life (if you're well off). This puts constant pressure at the top end which cascades down (including again to construction and property investors - they want to target the big fish with new housing). Another global problem in big desirable cities (SF etc). Seventh, the design of our cities, appalling urban sprawl, NIMBYism and terrible urban planning at every level of government, including for infrastructure. We can't often just dump more housing in urban infill because our planning mechanisms are inadequate to also lift public transport, schools, hospitals at the same time so existing services don't get overloaded. I was reading about how some schools in Perth are massively overloaded because new housing plans weren't aligned with school planning. Then you can see the horror of new estates at the fringes of cities - hours away from the desirable jobs / nightlife / culture / people, completely lacking in green space and unprepared for climate change, lacking in basic infrastructure/services, etc. Total planning/regulatory failure. Aged care is also broken which means people want to grow old and die in their giant house rather than get put somewhere worse than prison. Eighth, culture- amplified by all of the above and the lack of political leadership or vision at state and federal levels - all our home reno shows, the centrality of housing to Australians life and plans, how much media/TV is linked with property advertising - "the Australian dream". Holding on to big houses in old age. Older voters still have more influence in our political system (although this is changing) and despite often huge amounts of wealth locked up in housing / superannuation refuse to believe they will die or want to hand over millions to their grandkids (as we are one of the few OECD countries with no inheritance taxes) and are resistant to things like reverse mortgages or downsizing (although to be fair, appropriate stock for downsizing is also super limited). So yeah basically lots of converging trends leading to a broken system. The ideal would be to really rethink our cities and how we live to encourage a more inclusive and fair system - but this is such a political hot button I have a hard time seeing revolutionary change. Mid sized cities such as Adelaide, Canberra, Newcastle might have more opportunity to shift gears than somewhere like Sydney, which seems colossally broken simply because somehow people can afford median house prices approaching $2 million over the next 3 years, which given average wages/wealth demonstrates the broken incentives we have in the system to permit that kind of expenditure. edit: People have been talking about a housing bubble popping my entire life so I'm very dubious it can or will happen. Places like Sydney, San Francisco or Vancouver just seem fundamentally broken and I have no idea how all the people critical for maintaining a minimal quality of life in a big city (teachers, nurses, tradespeople, retail workers, restaurant staff etc) are going to be able to afford to live and work in somewhere like Sydney in ten years time based on current trends - I can't even understand how they manage to do it now! So surely there has to be some kind of correction. But as I said, I've been waiting for that correction for twenty years and it never happened. edit 2: Timely: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04...ce=abc_news_web - "Just 13.4 per cent of rental listings across the country are affordable for a family of four with both parents on a full-time minimum wage and only 1.8 per cent are affordable for a single parent on a full-time minimum wage."... Blamestorm fucked around with this message at 08:48 on Apr 23, 2024 |
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Apr 23, 2024 08:41
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NPR Journalizard posted:I read somewhere that they explicitly said "No money will change hands" in the settlement Yeah it was an everybody quits and calls it even situation. Apparently standard.
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Apr 23, 2024 08:41
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I wonder to what extent the housing crisis will accelerate the shift away from the major parties. Will it be a couple seats each for the greens and teals or something more dramatic. I wonder if the Tasmanian election result is a sign of things to come.
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Apr 23, 2024 09:02
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Recoome posted:shame JBP can’t negatively gear themselves out of being a bad poster Just Bad Posts
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Apr 23, 2024 09:13
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:I don't have a huge issue with a mum and pa having a single rental property. I have a huge problem with shitheads gathering up large portfolios and commercial residential landlords. gently caress off with the housing is an investment bs that is ruining affordability Eh, I think in some ways, baring a government service to provide them, a faceless corporate landlord is preferable to the dice roll of individual landlords. Even if they each only have one, I've heard enough horror stories from friends of petty tyrants being absolute arseholes. Often the lower the stakes, the worst power corrupts.
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Apr 23, 2024 09:29
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:I don't have a huge issue with a mum and pa having a single rental property. I have a huge problem with shitheads gathering up large portfolios and commercial residential landlords. gently caress off with the housing is an investment bs that is ruining affordability Those guys are often the worst, it's rarely some cute little ma and pa and mostly waspish karens indignant that 'their' renter wants a toilet that flushes. Blamestorm posted:We're seeing the convergence of a number of long term trends and policy settings contributing to it being absolutely broken. I think the bubble will pop eventually but there's going to be a lot of effort going into keeping it going because the consequences will be dire. Remember we had that little blip in the house prices around 2018 in the wake of lending standards being tightened after the royal commission? That caused a big reduction in household spending because falling house prices made people feel poorer so they spent less. No politician wants an actual crash and they'd probably legislate super funds buy houses to prop the market up or something before letting it happen on their watch. People invest in houses for the capital growth and mathematically there's only so much it can go up before it sucks every last bit of capital out of the economy to keep it propped up. The higher it goes the more it becomes a political issue because you have a greater percentage of voters unable to afford one. IMO the big change that is needed for a sustainable housing market is to change the incentives (e.g. CGT discount) and the mindset around housing so it is no longer seen as a growth asset (like shares) and instead treated as a defensive asset which maintains it's value but is predominantly used to generate income. You probably need a rental yield of between 5-10% for that to be attractive (similar to bond interest) which on current rents would translate to a roughly 50% decline in house prices.
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Apr 23, 2024 09:36
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I would blow Dane Cook posted:I wonder to what extent the housing crisis will accelerate the shift away from the major parties. Will it be a couple seats each for the greens and teals or something more dramatic. I wonder if the Tasmanian election result is a sign of things to come. I don't know the actual numbers but it is already having an impact. Something like 1 in 5 newly registered voters support the LNP and I'm certain housing plays a big role in that.
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Apr 23, 2024 09:40
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gay picnic defence posted:Those guys are often the worst, it's rarely some cute little ma and pa and mostly waspish karens indignant that 'their' renter wants a toilet that flushes. I think you’re right, but it will take like twenty years even with the best policy changes. So many people would be screwed by a crash (people whose mortgages would exceed the values of their homes) the government would pull every lever it has to avoid it. It would be a political nightmare. I don’t think domestic capital is a limitation because there will be enough international capital to keep it going if politicians want to prop up markets. Blamestorm fucked around with this message at 09:49 on Apr 23, 2024 |
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Apr 23, 2024 09:45
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I would blow Dane Cook posted:I wonder to what extent the housing crisis will accelerate the shift away from the major parties. Will it be a couple seats each for the greens and teals or something more dramatic. I wonder if the Tasmanian election result is a sign of things to come. The libs might find a way to exploit it and it flip it on Labor and kill them. Never count them out, home owners are still enough people and they're wont to come up with an appealing bootstraps policy every now and then.
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Apr 23, 2024 10:23
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gay picnic defence posted:Those guys are often the worst, it's rarely some cute little ma and pa and mostly waspish karens indignant that 'their' renter wants a toilet that flushes. My next door neighbour doesn't have a functioning oven, when the gas lines to her rental were updated recently they somehow hosed up the line to the kitchen and the landlord never got it fixed and they just gave her a lovely portable electrical cooktop instead. It's pretty much a camping stove.
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Apr 23, 2024 10:30
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JBP posted:The libs might find a way to exploit it and it flip it on Labor and kill them. Never count them out, home owners are still enough people and they're wont to come up with an appealing bootstraps policy every now and then. Demographics are against them (people in their 40s and younger are overwhelmingly not voting LNP and nobody is joining LNP branches but the old crazies, which means insane people get preselected more often compounding the disconnect) but at the same time I think around 65% of Australian adults either own their home or have a mortgage and it’s very possible the LNP can do a big flip with the right leader. There was that stat today that most Australians think renewables are the most expensive energy source (instead of the cheapest) which shows there is a lot of misinformed people out there to flip if they find the right angles. Cost of living concerns have completely crowded out climate concerns across the whole OECD and I think that’s the opportunity for the LNP - relentless short term focus at the expense of more painful long term structural reform. You can see Dutton, Taylor and the rest of the useless idiots scuttling around trying to find angles on cost of living and I bet that’s what they will run on for the election.
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Apr 23, 2024 10:49
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gay picnic defence posted:Remember we had that little blip in the house prices around 2018 in the wake of lending standards being tightened after the royal commission? It was everyone thinking BILLL would win in 2019 and change the cgt discount / negative gearing and when Morrison won prices went back up
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Apr 23, 2024 11:47
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birdstrike posted:It was everyone thinking BILLL would win in 2019 and change the cgt discount / negative gearing and when Morrison won prices went back up That was in part because they pressured APRA to relax lending standards again.
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Apr 23, 2024 12:24
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Blamestorm posted:Demographics are against them (people in their 40s and younger are overwhelmingly not voting LNP and nobody is joining LNP branches but the old crazies, which means insane people get preselected more often compounding the disconnect) but at the same time I think around 65% of Australian adults either own their home or have a mortgage and it’s very possible the LNP can do a big flip with the right leader. There was that stat today that most Australians think renewables are the most expensive energy source (instead of the cheapest) which shows there is a lot of misinformed people out there to flip if they find the right angles. Cost of living concerns have completely crowded out climate concerns across the whole OECD and I think that’s the opportunity for the LNP - relentless short term focus at the expense of more painful long term structural reform. You can see Dutton, Taylor and the rest of the useless idiots scuttling around trying to find angles on cost of living and I bet that’s what they will run on for the election. Yeah it's a very tight spot but we've often considered parties to be dead or banished for a long time and they bounce back. Nuclear is dumb as poo poo but it speaks to a number of issues that I think make it a smart wedge even if it's a recycled brainfart they used against Rudd. It's "cheap" (lie but who cares) and more importantly it will not force you to change your lifestyle. Secondarily they're pinning inflation and cost of living to power prices and linking that to nuclear generation. It's dumb but it presses some correct buttons.
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Apr 23, 2024 12:31
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It also gives them an energy policy that keeps the Nats happy and doesn’t involve building new coal fired power plants.
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Apr 23, 2024 12:39
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School teachers on strike today in WA. Good. Biggest surplus in the country. Biggest class sizes too. Maybe one can help fix the other.
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Apr 23, 2024 13:31
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negative gearing, positive attitude
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Apr 23, 2024 13:49
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Paracausal posted:reminder if you say 'cis' or 'cisgender' on twitter your account is limited, but posting the livestream of a terrorist attack is fine and dandy But it has to be a reply, not a post.  I experimented with an old account that got unsuspended after being locked for a few years. I tried every combination of 'Musk' and 'cisgender' in a bunch of posts and got nothing. Then I tried it once in a reply to one of Musks right wing bullyboys and got hit with a warning in less than an hour.
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Apr 23, 2024 14:01
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I would blow Dane Cook posted:I wonder to what extent the housing crisis will accelerate the shift away from the major parties. Will it be a couple seats each for the greens and teals or something more dramatic. I wonder if the Tasmanian election result is a sign of things to come. Someone will stand up and yell that the immigrants took your kids and grandkids houses and get a million votes immediately
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Apr 23, 2024 15:30
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Blamestorm posted:I think you’re right, but it will take like twenty years even with the best policy changes. So many people would be screwed by a crash (people whose mortgages would exceed the values of their homes) the government would pull every lever it has to avoid it. It would be a political nightmare. It's already a political nightmare. There's families where both parents are employed, yet they can't afford somewhere to live, so they live at campgrounds. Nobody wants to make any tough decisions that would (rightfully) prioritise the interests of the have-nots, since anything that would make housing more affordable would come at the expense of the overleveraged haves. In the mean time, things aren't getting better. Dunno about anyone here, but in the past six months my local park has gone from not having any rough sleepers to our local council periodically sending security guards to move on people sleeping rough or living in their cars. People don't have anywhere to go and it's awful  Edit coz this discussion is getting depressing. Meanwhile this development with the Bruce Lehrmann defamation case definitely gave me a giggle: Bruce Lehrmann refused offer to settle defamation action with Ten before trial began, court documents reveal Link froglet fucked around with this message at 18:14 on Apr 23, 2024 |
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Apr 23, 2024 17:46
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-24/chinese-boat-arrivals-airbase-western-australia/103742276 Lmao thanks border force i needed a laugh
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Apr 23, 2024 22:44
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Solemn Sloth posted:Someone will stand up and yell that the immigrants took your kids and grandkids houses and get a million votes immediately Yeah immigrants is never going to stop being a vote winner. It's too easy.
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Apr 23, 2024 23:59
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https://www.anzacsquare.qld.gov.au/virtual-veterans?cid=
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Apr 24, 2024 02:30
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Why the gently caress is Christian soldiers the first suggested prompt there
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Apr 24, 2024 02:33
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gay picnic defence posted:Negative gearing is in line with other tax deductions in that you deduct from your income any costs of getting that income. I don’t think it has a massive impact on the decision to invest in property but if you took it away from people who buy existing properties you would funnel a lot more investment into new builds. Eh, that doesn’t quite capture the nuance. Overseas, several countries put limits on the ability to transfer investment losses from one income stream to another. For example, the UK doesn’t let you take an investment loss on real estate and reduce the tax paid on your salary. That puts a pretty hard bound on the benefits of negative gearing any particular asset. That’s not to say there aren’t countries where you can transfer losses freely across streams, but which consequently do not have the same affordability issues as Australia. As if often the case, I think it’s the confluence of multiple factors (including negative gearing, treating all income sources as one, the CGT discount, depreciation rules, and I’m sure more) that sets up the tinderbox of Australian housing affordability. Equally, it’s going to take changes to multiple of those systems to begin to comprehensively address it.
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Apr 24, 2024 02:37
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sick of Applebees posted:Why the gently caress is Christian soldiers the first suggested prompt there It's a random assortment of things, I've got other stuff. Everyone in WW1 got a Church of England prayer book with the song in it. I have a suggestion "British gratitude?" lol
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Apr 24, 2024 02:39
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sick of Applebees posted:Why the gently caress is Christian soldiers the first suggested prompt there Because they brought jesus to the perfidious heathens known as the turks
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Apr 24, 2024 02:58
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Would it be possible for the Government to step in and explicitly set and control rent (through whatever formula), but just have some way of ensuring that people can afford a house and both live and save for the future. It can't go on without becoming a wrecking ball through hopes for any long term social stability. Even from the ultra-precious economic standpoint its loving poo poo up. loving landlords/real estate agents won't be happy until they wring every drop of blood out.
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Apr 24, 2024 03:22
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Synthbuttrange posted:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-24/chinese-boat-arrivals-airbase-western-australia/103742276 Great, now watch the LNP and Murdoch press poo poo themselves about Labor being soft in protecting Aussies on ANZAC week in a definitely not xenophobic way at all.
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Apr 24, 2024 03:26
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Whos ready for the "we cant talk about palestine today, it is a day of remembrance" screeching tomorrow
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Apr 24, 2024 03:52
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Apr 24, 2024 04:02
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I'm gonna be honest I didn't even check the url to make sure it was the digger chatbot thing I just saw the qld.gov domain and assumed that's all we were talking about today
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Apr 24, 2024 04:04
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SecretOfSteel posted:Would it be possible for the Government to step in and explicitly set and control rent (through whatever formula), but just have some way of ensuring that people can afford a house and both live and save for the future. It can't go on without becoming a wrecking ball through hopes for any long term social stability. Even from the ultra-precious economic standpoint its loving poo poo up. Well supported social housing programs of the type that worked really well in the UK and Australia in the post-war decades, and that still work well in Singapore. Rent controls can work, but unfortunately trying to introduce them now would have a whole heap of knock-ons. Far better to reduce the air going into the bubble by giving people other options. Scumbag landlords overcharging for a house that should have been demolished years ago? They won't get renters, since people who really need a home will be able to fall back on social housing programs. Set a solid reasonably priced baseline, and then the free market can still allow more beyond that for the people who want it.
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Apr 24, 2024 04:21
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Christ, "that role is now over" works so easily. Having chatbots like this seems like a terrible idea. 
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Apr 24, 2024 04:25
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fresh in our gpu memory
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Apr 24, 2024 04:59
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SecretOfSteel posted:Would it be possible for the Government to step in and explicitly set and control rent (through whatever formula), but just have some way of ensuring that people can afford a house and both live and save for the future. It can't go on without becoming a wrecking ball through hopes for any long term social stability. Even from the ultra-precious economic standpoint its loving poo poo up. Greens have called for a rent freeze for two years previously, didn't get through. Government can certainly put some controls on rents, Labor and LNP don't want to https://greens.org.au/housing
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Apr 24, 2024 04:59
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hooman posted:Me raping: Haha gently caress yeah!!! Yes!! 
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Apr 24, 2024 06:20
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hooman posted:Me raping: Haha gently caress yeah!!! Yes!! funny post. bullshit probe.
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Apr 24, 2024 06:47
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Who did it? Was it dav? Should we shame him?
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Apr 24, 2024 06:49
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https://x.com/mckinnon_a/status/1782945295665606815 Very interesting answers from the propaganda chatbot It was a funny post about a oval office in a thread full of them. Unacceptable moderation. JBP fucked around with this message at 06:53 on Apr 24, 2024 |
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Apr 24, 2024 06:51
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