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I suppose as the (typically) most invested Guardians Poster the duty must fall to me to pitch my midwestern failures in a sea of cubsposting. Also I made most of this before opening day and got lazy so you'll just have to live with anything that mentions Opening Day. _______________________________________________________________________ Hell is Real, and Closer Than You Think: The 2024 Cleveland Guardians The Cleveland Guardians are, against all odds - both imposed by themselves and others - one of the most notable faces of the oft-derided, oft-embarrassing, rarely-boring AL Central Division. They're feuding for this right with basically anyone who aren't the Royals, but right now it's mostly the Minnesota Twins and a slowly-coming-out-of-rebuild Detroit Tigers. This is impressive when you recall that the Cleveland Guardians are now the holders of the longest active win drought (discounting those who have never won the Series before, sorry Mariners) in baseball. Last winning shortly after World War II, the Cleveland Blues - that's what I'm calling it now, and you can't stop me - turns 76 this year, meaning it trails the Red Sox' Curse of the Bambino by a scant decade, and is now a good five years older than the agreed-upon origins of the Curse of the Billy Goat(though, obviously, has some room to grow on how long the Cubs went without a WS win in general). The people of Cleveland are no stranger to "there's always next season", but the nigh-inconceivable 2016 World Series choke to the Chicago Cubs still hangs over the ol' Mistake By The Lake like the early spring overcast that will almost surely blot out any eclipse viewing over Cleveland this coming week. What Happened Last Year? Last year was a rough one for Cleveland. Fresh off a 2022 season that looked for all the world like a youngblood squad ready to light the world on fire and prove contact-heavy offense wasn't a nonstarter in the modern day, they quickly cratered due to a myriad of factors. For one, the Guards were plagued by injury to their rotation from the jump - Triston McKenzie, shorly before Opening Day, would go on the IL, and would remain there until September, well after the Guardians were out of the race by any sane metric. This set the tone for the Guardians' problems for their rotation in 2023 - at no point was the starting 5 ever able to put it together, or even exist on the same roster at the same time, with various solutions called up. While rookies Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams all showing baseline competency and proving that the Guards can still develop a strong pitcher, a few blunderous trades made in desperation for pitching depth, hampered a post-All Star Break recovery. The most notable of these was flipping starting shortstop Amed Rosario for a 90%-washed Noah Syndergaard that only gave Cleveland a measly 6 starts before finally running out of gas for good, while also trading Aaron Civale for potent Tampa Bay rookie Kyle Manzardo... who admittedly still isn't ready yet. Still, the breath of fresh air in the rotation meant that while Cleveland was constantly fumbling for an answer to their pitching problems, they still had produced some solutions. If only the same could be said for their bats. Cleveland's offense, which was hovering precariously over absolute basement levels in 2022, stayed at about that mark or lower throughout all of 2023. To wit, in every metric except contact, the Guardians were at or near the very bottom of the league. And with Cleveland's inability to drive in runs, and Tito's propensity for leaving pitchers in just long enough to blow the save (Cleveland's closer, Emmaneul Clase, lead the league both in saves and blown saves last season), you have a recipe for disaster. Still, it can't be said Cleveland didn't prove contact-heavy teams were completely dead, only finishing a measly 3rd place in AL Central behind the division-winning Twins and a Detroit Tigers making a late-season surge that no one, not even Detroit saw coming. The biggest news last year, however, was not any moves on the field, but adjacent to it - Terry "Tito" Francona, skipper of the team since 2013, hung up his hat at the end of last season. Tito will almost certainly go down as one of the greatest managers Cleveland baseball has ever seen, despite his quirks and foibles, and that leaves some big shoes to fill for Stephen Vogt, who slid from on the field to off it between 2022's retirement and 2023's bullpen managing of the Mariners. This'll be his first year being the captain of his own ship, but, that said, Vogt's youth compared to Tito could be his strength - the 39-year-old fresh-faced former catcher knows a little more keenly what the state of baseball is on the field compared to the 64-year Francona, and that could be a strength for a Cleveland crew that needs to rely on every trick in the book if they want to make a case for themselves. But enough about the past. Let's look at the present. Who are these jerks, anyway? _______________________________________________________________________ Catcher: Bo Naylor / Austin Hedges (Austin Hedges batting 8th on Opening Day) Previously: Bo - 230 PA, .237/.339/.470 | Hedges - 212 PA, .184/.234/.227 It's no secret that Bo Naylor has been Cleveland's big prospect project for a few years, now. Younger brother of current starting first baseman Josh Naylor, this'll be Bo's sophomore year as the main catcher, which was a role he wasn't too awful at, though his defensive metrics weren't super inspiring. In addition, Bo's minor league stats were more than a little inconsistent - and he did spend some time in Triple-A Columbus, last year. Were it not for the fact that Mike Zunino didn't manage to recover to a productive level from thoracic outlet syndrome, he might have been left to cook for another year. That said, his bat played even if he was utterly abysmal at throwing people out attempting the steal, which means Cleveland's going to hope his first year wasn't a total flash in the pan. As will be a common refrain in this list, Bo Naylor needs to prove he has what it takes here, because the other options are pretty ugly. Now, if that sounds like I'm a bit down on Bo, know that is much better than the score I reserve for Austin Hedges. Catcher for Cleveland from 2020-2022, Austin Hedges is a 'defense-first' catcher, which is a very kind of way of saying the man couldn't hit a loving tee-ball if his life depended on it. Austin Hedges has had exactly one, count 'em, one year over 75 OPS+, and most years he hangs out 50 or below. Regardless, his veteran leadership/clubhouse presence, against all odds, keeps him employed. Last year, despite going Catcher Sans Frontières and hooking up with the eventual World Series-winning Texas Rangers, was his worst year yet, and his defensive metrics currently don't look that better than Bo's. Unfortunately, the scam of pitch framing remains alive and well, and so despite my protests, Hedges got another year with Cleveland, ostensibly as Bo's backup, a new ring on his finger, and is even starting Opening Day over Bo. Why? God only knows. First Base: Josh Naylor (Batting 4th on Opening Day) Previously: 452 AB, .308/.354/.489 Josh Naylor, along with Steven Kwan and Jose 'Hosey' Ramirez, make up the heart of the 2020s Cleveland team, and looking at the above line, it's probably not surprising to understand that. Called up in 2020, Josh didn't really hit his stride until 2022, and is one of the few performers from the 2022 Guardians to maintain that same energy the following year. While Guardians' offense might have been bottom of the barrel, it can't be said Naylor didn't do his best to offset that, with 31 doubles and 17 homers last season. Considering he looked like a dogshit replacement player when the Padres flipped him for Mike Clevinger, a reliable arm who pitched a whole 19 innings with the Padres before being sidelined for the next two years, it's not been a bad deal! That said, Naylor is kind of a butcher at first base. A lot of guys are, and he's not the worst, but a -0.7 DWAR means that when something goes wrong in Cleveland, it's usually Josh's fault. If he stays with the team, his move to DH is eventual, but given he's still 26, that's very early talk, yet. Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Batting 7th on Opening Day) Previously: 557 AB, .251/.314/.399 If Hedges is what it looks like when you're faking being a defense-first player to keep getting paid, Gimenez is the real mccoy. Leading the American League last year with an eye-watering 2.9 DWAR, and winning his second consecutive Gold Glove (as well as last year's Platinum Glove), the myth of Cleveland's stellar defense comes down entirely to how well Gimenez handles anything hit his way. And, frankly, he's not that bad with a bat, either! In 2022 hit he for an absolutely unsustainable .297/.371/.466 for a meteoric 141 OPS+. Last year he regressed hard, but still managed to be a league-average bat with absurd defense. If his bat and glove remain as good as they were last year, he's going to once again be the squeak-free joint the team pivots around, and his bat has some room to climb back to those sweltering heights from the Guardians' 2022 Run. Shortstop: Brayan Rocchio (Batting 9th on Opening Day) Previously: 81 AB, .247/.279/.321 Spring Training: 51 AB, .250/.294/.417 Bryan Rocchio is another big unknown this season, the prospect call-up replacement for Amed Rosario and supposedly the whole reason the org flipped Rosario for the broken remains of the Mighty Thor. (Amed, admittedly, was having an absolutely dreadful year defensively, when he can at least expect his glove to make up some of the difference from his bat). In his limited run in 2023, Rocchio didn't exactly set the world on fire - a sub-league-average bat and replacement-level defense sure contributed to Cleveland's late-season woes last year, and his spot in the 9-hole reflects that. That said, as seen, his Spring Training stats seem to be looking up, but it's hard to say for sure whether he'll manage to stick. It's not like Cleveland can't continue to play him at short, but fellow prospect and current utility-man Gabriel Arias is waiting in the wings if Brayan doesn't put it together to at least produce about where Gimenez is now. Third Base: José Ramírez (Batting 2nd on Opening Day) Previously: 691 AB, .282/.356/.475 Hosey, Hosey! This is the guy you know even if you don't know any other Guardians, and probably 50/50 odds it's from his late-season square-off with White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson last year. The face of the franchise at the moment, and for good reason - a Cleveland prospect called up who's been proving he's got what it takes since Cleveland's last shot at the World Series, Hosey's bat is the heartbeat of the lineup - 36 doubles and 24 home runs last season, he lead last year in intentional walks, which is both a small damnation of Cleveland's offense in how much it runs off Jose Ramirez, but at the same time the league knows that the man is a killer threat. He might not be a Juan Soto or an Aaron Judge, but with five All-Stars, 4 Silver Sluggers, and a consistent name in the MVP conversation since 2017, it's impossible to discuss the Guards without discussing Captain Smiley. Jose's probably gonna retire with Cleveland - he's already 30 years old, and his contract extension looms large over the franchise. If he has a weakness, it's that his defense is only about replacement level at best in the hot corner, but when you have a bat like Jose Ramirez, you play it in the hot corner, defense be damned. Left Field: Steven Kwan (Batting 1st on Opening Day) Previously: 638 AB, .268/.340/.370 If I told you, in his first year in the majors, Steven Kwan did not take a strike looking until after 80 pitches, would you believe me? Steven Kwan, along with Gimnenez, was probably the breakout star from the Guardians' 2022 run. While his 2023 performance was, like Gimenez, a pretty painful regression to the mean, his batting eye is still pretty drat phenomenal - compared to his 62 Walks vs 60 strikeouts in '22, Kwan had 70 Walks vs 75 Strikeouts in 23. And for a classic contact-first doubles guy, he's actually not that bad in Left, either, managing a relatively healthy 1.0 DWAR so far in both years of Left Field experience. Of course, the problem is that LF is, in tradition baseball team-building exercises, the butcher's spot where you put your big, brutal sluggers who can't field worth a drat. The fact that Left Field is where the Guardians have their leadoff man does kind of establish that the Guardians are never gonna be a power-first team. Even still, if Kwan can recapture even a little bit of his 2022 performance, the Guards stand to at least drive in a few more runs this season, which is where they're lacking most. Center Field: Tyler Freeman (Batting 6th on Opening Day) Previously: 153 AB, .242/.295/.366 Spring Training: 37 AB, .297/.366/.459 Tyler Freeman is definitely an enigma, in both good and bad ways, and none of that encapsulates the sophomore's troubles more than his 2023 fielding stats, where he played 25 games at Third Base, 17 at Second, 11 at Short, 10 at DH, and one game apiece at First Base, Left Field, and generic Outfield replacement. Freeman's DWAR reflects that confusion as well, with a -0.5 DWAR on the 2023 season. Now, based on his Spring Training stats, Freeman might have figured it out - while his bat was never dreadful, it was still sub-league average last year, and those numbers would put him right up there with Hosey and Naylor as being primary run production machines on the 24 Guardians. That said, his defense is still a question mark - playing him in Center means he'll be attempting to fill in the shoes of previous CF Myles Straw, who, while never a run producer, was nevertheless a considerable feather in the cap of the Guardians' defense. The big questions for Freeman are whether he's going to be carrying those small-sample-size stats into his 2024 performance, and whether his glove can play in the cavernous depths of the Jake. If not, well, Myles is still in AAA Columbus, if worst comes to worse. Right Field: Ramón Laureano (Batting 3rd on Opening Day) Previously: 303 ABs between OAK/CLE, .224/.304/.371 Laureano is a refugee from the dying Oakland As, the screwjob of which will go down in baseball history. But that's a different story. Claimed off waivers because the Guardians, frankly, have no idea what they're doing with their outfield in the current team configuration, the most you can say about Laureano is that he's a warm body - he's got exactly 0.0 DWAR, his almost comically league-average bat (the man has been between 90 and 110 OPS+ since 2020) means he theoretically won't be a part of the ship the team has to constantly fret over, and ultimately that means the Guardians can continue to shuffle around pieces as they look for another answer. Maybe he wins over the team, maybe he doesn't, but it's probably better than staying in Oakland. Designated Hitter: David Fry (and others) (Batting 5th on Opening Day) Previously: 101 AB, .238/.319/.416 Spring Training: 44 AB, .295/.380/.523 Cleveland is weird in that they don't really have a true "designated hitter". David Fry is usually the utility man, and the other man who might be taking starts at Right Field from Laureano or picking up the slack at Catcher if something catastrophic happens to either Bo or Hedges. His defense there is comparable (but slightly worse), and his bat is about the same as well. Realistically, he's here because the usual guy the Guardians stick at DH, Will Brennan, is a lefty, and the As are starting left-hander Alex Wood on Opening Day, so Fry is getting the nod over Brennan for the handedness matchup. They'll probably do what they have the past few seasons and stick a few of their utility-men and other bench bats here to figure out who's hot, who's not, and then play them depending on whether the other team is starting a righty or lefty. On Fry himself, it's hard to really calculate how Fry is going to do. In 100 ABs after getting called up during 2023, he was pretty much league-average. He could do better, he could do much worse. Like Freeman and Rocchio, he's part of a handful of unknowns on the current roster - if he has a breakout season and Laureano doesn't, I can see them moving Laureano to DH and giving David Fry a chance at the outfield spot full time. The Bench: Estevan Florial (CF), Will Brennan (RF), Gabriel Arias (UT). Previously | Spring Training: 71 AB, .230/.324/.311 | 52 AB, .154/.241/.173 [Florial] 432 AB, .266/.299/.356 | 47 AB, .319/.360/.574 [Brennan] 315 AB, .210/.275/.352 | 43 AB, .233/.298/.395 [Arias] While Cleveland has some other position players waiting in the wings, these are the guys you're going to most likely see Cleveland pivot to. Of them, Estevan Florial looks by far the worst, with an apocalyptically bad showing in Spring, which isn't ideal when we flipped a reliever to the Yankees for him. Brennan is the opposite - he didn't look great last year, but if he can capture even a whiff of whatever poo poo he was smoking in Spring Training he could see a lot more at-bats, and Arias is mostly here because Cleveland needs someone to sub in for Naylor, Rocchio, or Ramirez depending on who needs rest. His bat looks like it's improved in Spring, but considering the margin of difference there I wouldn't expect him to hit any better than he did last year. Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber Previously: 128 IP, 3.80 ERA Spring Training: 17 IP, 1.56 ERA Shane Bieber is the current incarnation of the Guardians' pitching-forward Aces High strategem that saw them make it inches from the World Series victory in 2016. Bieber saw some pretty serious regression last year, which continued a trend from 2022, and culminated with an injury that sidelined him during the two most important months of baseball and helped trigger the mass rookie callup the Guardians did last year. His fastball has never been the fastest on the market, but with a slight drop-off in velocity from his best stuff and his off-speed pitches not quite getting as many people to bite in the past few years, he's been seen as merely "okay" rather than "great". That seems to be changing for 2024. While Bieber doesn't have a huge sample size to go off of, apparently improving his curveball and getting velocity back in his fastball has made him as seemingly unhittable as his 2020 Cy Young-Award Winning self. Time will tell if he can keep that energy going into the season, especially since one of the biggest questions for the Guardians this season is what to do with Bieber. He hits Free Agency this winter, so the Guardians may try and flip him at the trade deadline if they don't expect to keep him, and seeing as how the Cleveland Guardians are perennially one of the cheapest teams in baseball, they might deal him if they don't expect to make it to October. The Rotation: Logan Taylor "L.T." Allen, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Carlos Carrasco, Hunter Gaddis Previously | Spring Training 125 IP, 3.81 ERA | 18 IP, 5.50 ERA [Allen] 191 IP, 2.96 ERA* | 14 IP, 3.07 ERA [McKenzie] 142 IP, 2.98 ERA | 18 IP, 4.00 ERA [Bibee] 90 IP, 6.80 ERA | 14 IP, 2.57 ERA [Carrasco] 42 IP, 4.50 ERA | 11.2 IP, 1.54 ERA [Gaddis] * - McKenzie's stats taken from 2022 Cleveland fields a lot of pitchers, and it still might not be enough, as we'll see. Allen and Bibee are two of the rookies that made a case for themselves last year. The third, Williams, had elbow inflammation during Spring Training and so wasn't cleared for opening day. All three are expected to perform well, but both Allen and Bibee appear to be having trouble in Spring, which is not a great sign. William's sample size is so small it might as well not exist, so one can only hope they all shake off the sophomore jitters and perform, for Cleveland's sake. Carrasco, weirdly, has the opposite trend - a Cleveland callup in 2009, he'd been with the org for a solid decade (he missed 2012) before Cleveland flipped him to the mets in 2021. He was okay for the Mets in 2022, but 2023 he looked absolutely washed. Conversely, in Spring Training, he looks better than he ever has been, but whether that translates to success once the season gets rolling is gonna be an open question. At 36, he's easily the oldest member on the team, so I would expect him to only come out and eat innings when absolutely necessary, unless the team thinks he's completely bounced back to his 2016-2018 form. McKenzie's coming off nearly a whole year on the IL, and elected not to take Tommy John when everyone thought he would. Time will tell if that decision will bite him in the rear end - he looks good now, but I'm not sure I would bet money on him staying healthy the whole season. But if he does, that'll be a huge boon to Cleveland's pitching, considering he hasn't seem to lost a step from his 2022 performance and with three sophomore pitchers in the question consistency might be the most valuable word in the Cleveland clubhouse. I'm putting Hunter Gattis here because he started 7 games for Cleveland last year, which is more than we got out of Noah Syndergaard, but in reality, he's effectively the long man, expected to play more innings than the other relievers. He'll probably start a few games this year too, depending on what happens to the rotation. In Spring he seems to be doing better than most, so if Vogt is confident that'll play we might see him sooner than expected. Relievers: Emmanuel Clase, Scott Barlow, Eli Morgan, Nick Sandlin, Tim Herrin, Tyler Beede, Cade Smith Everyone who's a baseball nerd will tell you that Relievers are volatile, but Cleveland going into this losing two relievers to sickness (Xzavion Curry, Ben Lively), two with minor injuries that delayed their Spring Training (Sam Hentges, James Karinchak), and one to Tommy John who is almost certainly missing the whole season (Trevor Stephan) makes this a much harder road to hoe. This makes the flipping of Cleveland's 2023 main setup man, Enyel De Los Santos, even more boneheaded in hindsight. Despite how much I rage at the bullpen sometimes, they were all fairly good last year, and were given an insurmountable task to be perfect with how slim Cleveland's run margins were. Rather that describe them all, I'm gonna break out the tier list and wrap things up. The Closer: Clase Will Be Good: Sandlin Might Be Good: Herrin, Morgan, Barlow Don't Expect Much: Beede Answer Hazy, Try Again Later: Smith _______________________________________________________________________ Predictions This year in AL Central, the Twins are the favorite to take the division - they were pretty hot last year, and the regression from 2022 hurt the Guardians a lot, given their offense isn't based super heavily on the ever-consistent dinger. That said, if anyone ever told you that the AL Central could be locked down day 1 I'd laugh you out of the room. More than either of its bigger brothers, the AL Central is a volatile madhouse where the only law that plays is Murphy's Law - in 2022, the White Sox looked good, and then injury after injury turned them in a hobbled laughingstock whose current odds of winning the division are lower than the Royals. In 2023, the injury bug coupled with a rash of regressions totaled the Guardians' playoff hopes and dreams, but they still came within spitting distance. The Twins' players' health is an ongoing concern, so it could be their turn to look like the kings of the smallest mountain only to get buried in a cavalcade of absolute horseshit. That said, if the Guardians' don't win the division, their chances of winning a Wild Card are pretty slim - they'd need to try and wrestle one out from under the nose of whichever of the Mariners/Astros/Rangers don't win AL West, and basically everyone from AL East except probably the Yankees. On the other hand, part of the reason the Guardians' outlook is so low is due to unproven talent - their Catcher, Shortstop, Center Fielder, three of their Starters, and two of their Relievers are either coming up on their second year in the majors or are staring down their first ever call-up. Add to that Gimenez and Kwan are only in Year 3 of the Majors, and that's a lot of talent that can explode out and stun people. Even if everything goes right, it won't be easy, but there's a lot of untapped potential in this roster that might yet surprise folks. If they do make it to the postseason, will they win the World Series? Well... hard to say. Usually when the Guardians make the postseason, their gatekeeper is the ever-infuriating New York Yankees. This year, despite having Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, the Yankees are considered a bit of an underdog in their division. Without their gatekeepers, the Guardians could go on the mother of all runs... ...but I'm a Northeast Ohio native, so I'm not gonna hope until we get to October. Until then, though, let chaos reign in AL Central - and the least-injured team limp across the finish line. Monathin fucked around with this message at 17:49 on Mar 30, 2024 |
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Mar 30, 2024 07:58
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