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MizPiz posted:Not all Latin-American immigrants came here illegally, not all Latin-Americans are Mexican, and "most opportune" does not mean "the only chance". Except in certain cases, it's foolish to think the political affiliation of a demographic can't shift with enough time and the right messaging. "All of the illegal immigrants are thugs" is explicitly not the right message.
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 15:57 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 07:14 |
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:There's a huge split between non-hispanic white Catholics and Latino Catholics, with the former breaking hard for Romney and the latter breaking overwhelmingly for Obama in 2012. That's just one year though. Yeah 19 points is big, but it's nothing compared to the consisten 30 and 40 point ownages that Republicans consistently get from White Protestants. In 2008 they won white Catholics by just 5 points. Even full-on racism hasn't consistently swayed white Catholics into a solid Republican voting group, so I'm skeptical that without the benefit of appeals to racism that abortion and gay marriage is enough to get Hispanic Catholics to vote for economic policies they despise, especially as the Catholic laity is liberalizing on social issues and the Pope is writing bull after bull exhorting the faithful to prioritize economic justice.
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 15:58 |
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computer parts posted:"All of the illegal immigrants are thugs" is explicitly not the right message. I'm not denying that. "Thugs are coming here illegally to destroy our lives" would be fairly effective if approached correctly. We also can't forget that not all Latin-Americans are immigrants, and that there's a bit too much of a tendency of 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants being the most out spoken xenophobes.
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 16:06 |
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The whole "hispanics are natural conservatives" narrative that sometimes gets trotted out doesn't seem to be based on much:quote:Survey | 2013 Hispanic Values Survey: How Shifting Religious Identities and Experiences are Influencing Hispanic Approaches to Politics But hey, I bet the GOP is totally gonna make a "serious play" for a demographic where 67% of respondents think illegal immigrants should be given a path to citizenship.
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 16:08 |
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MizPiz posted:I'm not denying that. "Thugs are coming here illegally to destroy our lives" would be fairly effective if approached correctly. Do you think "Harass and demand ID from anyone who is any shade of brown" is the correct approach? Because that's he approach they've been using for awhile now and it doesn't look like they're going to stop any time soon.
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 16:08 |
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Who What Now posted:Do you think "Harass and demand ID from anyone who is any shade of brown" is the correct approach? Because that's he approach they've been using for awhile now and it doesn't look like they're going to stop any time soon. It's possible I suppose. There's a guy I know at work whose Brazilian wife is very opposed to citizenship for illegals because she jumped through all the legal hoops, so they should too. If Republicans could manage to appeal to "illegals are jumping the border and stealing your job after you immigrated legally" without spouting a bunch of dumb racist poo poo, tweeting racial slurs about a native-born American from San Antonio singing the national anthem and telling him to "go home" to a foreign country, bitching about businesses with bilingual signs, and they stopped cops from harassing and profiling anyone darker than John Beohner Fake-Tan Orange, they might make some gains. But they won't because their base really is racist, and decades of dog whistling has confused a good chunk of Republicans into thinking open racism is socially acceptable again because they can't tell the difference between the coded stuff the media lets smart conservatives get away with and the blatant Cliven Bundy style stuff that gets them in trouble.
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 16:22 |
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talk of GOP Latino outreach. It's hard to reach out with one hand while the other hand is firing a taser with barbs made of racism.
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 17:45 |
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I'm Catholic but I don't have a preference between the Democrats and the Republicans. I take each issue, and each election, on it's own merit.
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:13 |
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tbp posted:I'm Catholic but I don't have a preference between the Democrats and the Republicans. I take each issue, and each election, on it's own merit. Good for you.
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:15 |
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VitalSigns posted:It's possible I suppose. There's a guy I know at work whose Brazilian wife is very opposed to citizenship for illegals because she jumped through all the legal hoops, so they should too. How recently did she come over to the US? I knew a guy from summer camp four years ago who was of Italian-Argentine ancestry and had some fairly conservative leanings, but he noted that it was much easier for his parents to get in years ago, compared to his aunt from Venezuela who had far more hoops to jump through or something.
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:16 |
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Who What Now posted:Good for you. Thank you
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:31 |
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I'd actually be curious to see how many hard-right voters could set aside their racism in order to vote for Rubio/Cruz/Jindal over a more classical-looking, white Democratic candidate, if that ends up being the scenario. Maybe that's the kind of thing that could lead to another George Wallace-type situation?
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:35 |
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PupsOfWar posted:I'd actually be curious to see how many hard-right voters could set aside their racism in order to vote for Rubio/Cruz/Jindal over a more classical-looking, white Democratic candidate, if that ends up being the scenario. If one of those guys actually does become the republican candidate for president I'm willing to bet that the GOP PR machine will be working in overdrive to downplay their race for exactly that reason. Which will be great when someone inevitably says the phrase "one of the good ones".
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 18:50 |
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Racism and classism are close related in US politics so I think it's pretty easy to imagine that many people who are very racist in their personal lives wouldn't have that much trouble voting for a Hispanic GOP candidate who wears a nice suit and talks about protecting the job creator. Being a racist does not mean that your racist views are literally the only factor in deciding your vote. I'm sure there are people who voted for Obama but who would flip out if their daughter dated a black man. I think the better question is whether Rubio or some other Hispanic GOP Presidential candidate could actually attract significant numbers of minority voters without also changing GOP policy in ways that would trigger a revolt. It's far from clear that changing the ethnicity of your presidential candidate is enough of a change on its own. If anyone has any actual data on this I'd be fascinated to see it.
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 19:28 |
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Helsing posted:I think the better question is whether Rubio or some other Hispanic GOP Presidential candidate could actually attract significant numbers of minority voters without also changing GOP policy in ways that would trigger a revolt. It's far from clear that changing the ethnicity of your presidential candidate is enough of a change on its own. If anyone has any actual data on this I'd be fascinated to see it. There was this poll from October 2011 that showed Cain taking 25% of the black vote in a hypothetical Cain-Obama 2012 matchup, which is a pretty huge shift from Obama's 95% victories among blacks. On the other hand, the poll also showed Cain beating Obama overall 43-41 so
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 21:20 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 07:14 |
Helsing posted:Racism and classism are close related in US politics so I think it's pretty easy to imagine that many people who are very racist in their personal lives wouldn't have that much trouble voting for a Hispanic GOP candidate who wears a nice suit and talks about protecting the job creator. Progress?
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# ? Sep 19, 2014 23:00 |