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Notorious R.I.M. posted:The Netherlands, Denmark. Kind of. They're less car-centric, but still very car friendly, except for those old city centers with really narrow streets. The car ownership rate in both of those countries is high at about 50%, but I think they could reduce that more quickly than the US due to short distances, friendly topography, high degree of urbanization and social wealth.
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Feb 21, 2019 21:00
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Mozi posted:You can just look at sea level rise projections to know this is already unavoidable (maybe not NYC if they spend many billions on a sea wall.) If we hit the Paris Accord or even miss by a degree or two some of these places will still be around but you are going to have a steady stream of folks unemployed. Those just beginning their career will be able go back in school but the rest are just kind of hosed? Notorious R.I.M. posted:The Netherlands, Denmark. Everything I've seen with China's "One Belt One Road" is traditional transportation but with a stronger emphasis on things like modern high speed rail.
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Feb 21, 2019 21:03
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I don't know for sure, but I suspect China's urban planning is disappointingly conventional.
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Feb 21, 2019 21:12
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Tab8715 posted:If we hit the Paris Accord or even miss by a degree or two some of these places will still be around but you are going to have a steady stream of folks unemployed. Those just beginning their career will be able go back in school but the rest are just kind of hosed? No, we're already at CO2 concentrations above the Eemian optimum. During that interglacial sea levels were 6-9 meters higher. The IPCC targets mostly affect the rate of sea level rise because less optimistic scenarios include more ice sheet contributions instead of just the expansion of water as temperature increases via the ideal gas law. NYC is about the only aforementioned place where SLR would not sink almost the entire region (although it'd certainly sink sections). They have bad news about the poleward migration of tropical cyclones under warming climates though. Our coastlines should adapt with the ultimate expectation of 1.5 - 3m of SLR by 2100 with estimates as high as 9 - 15m by 2300. A responsible species would adapt by clearing out all of their infrastructure debris and Superfund sites before transient inundation becomes frequent. We will not do this and thus will create yet another ecological disaster as our coasts flood.
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Feb 21, 2019 21:14
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:No, we're already at CO2 concentrations above the Eemian optimum. During that interglacial sea levels were 6-9 meters higher. The IPCC targets mostly affect the rate of sea level rise because less optimistic scenarios include more ice sheet contributions instead of just the expansion of water as temperature increases via the ideal gas law. NYC is about the only aforementioned place where SLR would not sink almost the entire region (although it'd certainly sink sections). They have bad news about the poleward migration of tropical cyclones under warming climates though. Can't cause an ecological disaster by polluting the oceans if all marine life's already dead 
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Feb 21, 2019 21:18
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:No, we're already at CO2 concentrations above the Eemian optimum. During that interglacial sea levels were 6-9 meters higher. The IPCC targets mostly affect the rate of sea level rise because less optimistic scenarios include more ice sheet contributions instead of just the expansion of water as temperature increases via the ideal gas law. NYC is about the only aforementioned place where SLR would not sink almost the entire region (although it'd certainly sink sections). They have bad news about the poleward migration of tropical cyclones under warming climates though. Are there any maps that show coastline projections in 2040 and 2060? I'm picking those years because ideally I'd be retired, well-off if not wealthy and spend my wonder years traveling the world but maybe not if everything cool is underwater. On the flip side, it looks like tourism will be nearly destroyed. I wonder how Vegas would turn out.
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Feb 21, 2019 21:33
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Tab8715 posted:Are there any maps that show coastline projections in 2040 and 2060? I'm picking those years because ideally I'd be retired, well-off if not wealthy and spend my wonder years traveling the world but maybe not if everything cool is underwater. In the 2040 - 2060 window the main SLR effects are transient inundation due to enhanced flooding from tidal cycles (see: King tides) and enhanced storm surge impacts from tropical cyclones. Of course, increasing temperatures also enhance freshwater flooding impacts from tropical cyclones as well, so coastal places will get Harvey'ed more often. SLR is slow and unavoidable. Outlier events will drive infrastructure damage and migration long before permanent inundation does, and the latter is more of a concern in the 2060 and onward time frame. On the bright side, you may be able to go on some exciting vacations in that time window to see things like the last saltwater fish exhibit.
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Feb 21, 2019 21:40
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taking bets: which is the first major US city to either experience massive population migration or be totally abandoned due to climate change (or climate change induced disasters)? the shortlist is probably Miami, Phoenix, New Orleans, and Houston, but curious to hear y'all's thoughts
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Feb 21, 2019 21:40
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Luneshot posted:taking bets: which is the first major US city to either experience massive population migration or be totally abandoned due to climate change (or climate change induced disasters)? Look up Tampa's Hurricane Phoenix disaster planning scenario if you want to see a bunch of dead people and migrants get created real fast. It's one of those "when" not "if" scenarios kinda like California's ARkStorm scenario. Houston also came extremely close to a catastrophic dam failure in Harvey and no one really likes talking about it or actually dealing with the state of the Barker and Addicks reservoirs. They could easily end up on that list as well.
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Feb 21, 2019 21:47
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Could migration patterns already have changed somewhat after the recent few years of natural disasters in the US?
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Feb 21, 2019 22:31
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:Look up Tampa's Hurricane Phoenix disaster planning scenario if you want to see a bunch of dead people and migrants get created real fast. I wasn't aware of either of these planning scenarios; that's some terrifying poo poo- especially knowing that they are not only likely, but inevitable.
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Feb 21, 2019 22:37
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Luneshot posted:taking bets: which is the first major US city to either experience massive population migration or be totally abandoned due to climate change (or climate change induced disasters)? My first thought was Phoenix, but on thinking that, I realized there are a few outcomes of a 150 degree heatwave, and none of them are "try to leave the area". Miami is my new guess. Either the hurricanes just keep getting bigger or it just goes full Venice in a couple decades.
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Feb 21, 2019 22:49
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For migration, my money's on New Orleans. It's both low and sinking. But the port and historic districts will probably be considered worth saving.
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Feb 21, 2019 23:21
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Currently reading through New York 2140 by Kim Stanley Robinson, after thoroughly enjoying Aurora off the recommendation either in this thread or the CSPAM climate change thread. The premise is that New York has sunk due to rising sea levels as expected, there was massive quantitative easing done by the government that injected a shitload of money in the economy. Disaster capitalism takes hold and the stock market is doing better than ever, with an inscrutable index fund based on the sea level rise that is disconnected with actual reality. The gulf between the rich and poor continues unabated and it is a hell world for people without means. The haves live in enclaves within glitzy skyscrapers where the lower levels have been waterproofed while the poor are literally drowning in condemned buildings that are disintegrating as the tide ebbs and flows or living a meager existence on leaky dinghies. A middle class clutches on to whatever they have, many barely securing decent housing thanks to their parents leaving behind something to live in. quite optimistic, this book
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Feb 21, 2019 23:30
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Polio Vax Scene posted:My first thought was Phoenix, but on thinking that, I realized there are a few outcomes of a 150 degree heatwave, and none of them are "try to leave the area". Is anyone able to link sources or go into more detail on 150f heat waves? Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 00:23 on Feb 22, 2019 |
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Feb 22, 2019 00:18
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VideoGameVet posted:Oh, the "rare earth" stuff. Copper mining is pretty nasty poo poo too, unless they are using all recycled copper. However, the Rare Earth Magnet stuff is correct for Wind Turbines, which largely use Permanent Magnet generators now.
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Feb 22, 2019 00:23
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Tab8715 posted:Is anyone able to link sources or go into more detail on 150f heat waves? Fun fact: typical residential air conditioners just don't work properly past 120 degrees
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Feb 22, 2019 00:25
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Even disregarding lethal heat waves, Phoenix is the dictionary definition of “completely unsustainable”. If we completely banned agriculture in the Southwest we might delay it a while, but even then... I wouldn’t make any real estate investments there.
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Feb 22, 2019 00:40
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Is there a simple bullet point list of what cities are essentially inhabitable in 2060? I wonder when the crisis will hit the American middle class and politicians won’t be able to claim it’s just a thing.
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Feb 22, 2019 01:04
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Tab8715 posted:Is there a simple bullet point list of what cities are essentially inhabitable in 2060? It's pretty hard to say for sure because of the inherently stochastic nature of climate change disasters and it really depends on what sort of trajectory we take with our carbon emissions. Since sea level rise is relatively slow, even the cities most vulnerable to it might still be populated. Here's a neat interactive map on what the climate in US cities are likely to be like in 2080, assuming RCP 8.5. https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/
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Feb 22, 2019 02:59
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Tab8715 posted:Is there a simple bullet point list of what cities are essentially inhabitable in 2060? To Americans? Probably not for awhile, likely not even most of our lifetime sadly. We're going to see more poo poo like this with more extinctions cropping up; more mega droughts + mega floods, cities will be hit massively with people trying to move to somewhere inhabitable and being resisted locally, but it'll sort of been seen through a telescopic lens from the perspective of most americans. It's like watching how the german middle class and rest of europe was fairly nonchalant and w/e about the nazis because hey doesn't effect us; or how americans largely thought the great depression wouldn't affect them just some dopey farmers loving up until it then hit everyone; it's always very much "oh it can't happen to me" mentality. California wildfires, hurricane katrina, hurricane sandys/maria/whatever are all like "oh no that's tragic" and then mostly out of sight out of mind because "we" truly do not care what happens to anyone else as long as it doesn't happen till us and that belief that "its okay i'll be fine" is strongly pervasive. Of course until it does happen. The crisis is going to be painful for many Others, but never directly effecting the nebulous american "middle class" voters for awhile. Also it's not going to be like 'x doesn't exist anymore' like Atlantis, but it'll probably see massive displacements for combination of geopolitical events and various parts will be hurt but they'll still be standing and lived in. We might see some abandoned southwest towns or something that were already basically population: 100, but in terms of 'major' cities being uninhabitable I don't think that's going to happen till into the 2100s.
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Feb 22, 2019 03:02
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The Pacific Northwest will turn pliocene-like slower than the rest of North America. Find a suitable place where you think you won't be inhaling wildfire smoke all the time. Otherwise go migrate to Patagonia or something.
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Feb 22, 2019 03:04
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At the rate we're going, extinction rate will outrun infrastructure collapse from weather, so go wherever you want, just get ready to be hungry and sick and tired of jellyfish. And lol if you think you won't be feeling the effects of this during your lifetime.
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Feb 22, 2019 03:07
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You're going to see a massive depopulation of Tucson followed by Las Vegas and Phoenix as Lake Meads dries up over the next 15 years. All you need is a Cape Town-like water crisis where conditions don't reverse in the nick of time to witness the death of an urban center. Xaris posted:To Americans? Probably not for awhile, likely not even most of our lifetime sadly. We're going to see more poo poo like this with more extinctions cropping up; more mega droughts + mega floods, cities will be hit massively with people trying to move to somewhere inhabitable and being resisted locally, but it'll sort of been seen through a telescopic lens from the perspective of most americans. It's like watching how the german middle class and rest of europe was fairly nonchalant and w/e about the nazis because hey doesn't effect us; or how americans largely thought the great depression wouldn't affect them just some dopey farmers loving up until it then hit everyone; it's always very much "oh it can't happen to me" mentality. California wildfires, hurricane katrina, hurricane sandys/maria/whatever are all like "oh no that's tragic" and then mostly out of sight out of mind because "we" truly do not care what happens to anyone else as long as it doesn't happen till us and that belief that "its okay i'll be fine" is strongly pervasive. Of course until it does happen. This post is so incredibly meta. Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 03:15 on Feb 22, 2019 |
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Feb 22, 2019 03:11
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Miami is probably gone before most people posting here are into old age. It won't be entirely underwater yet, but the city is probably finished as a meaningful metropolitan area as soon as the real estate panic starts and everyone desperately tries to avoid being the one left holding the bag. That could happen sooner or later depending on how unlucky we are with storms. The effects of climate change induced real estate market collapse and internal migration are going to be a hell of a thing to see.
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Feb 22, 2019 03:38
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Paradoxish posted:Miami is probably gone before most people posting here are into old age. It won't be entirely underwater yet, but the city is probably finished as a meaningful metropolitan area as soon as the real estate panic starts and everyone desperately tries to avoid being the one left holding the bag. That could happen sooner or later depending on how unlucky we are with storms. Water Knife was a documentary, also would recommend. I honestly don't think American politicians are going to take it seriously with exception being some incredibly tepid Chuck Schumer-esque lipservice at best until all baby bombers and most of gen x are dead though, so another 25+ years? But yes millions of americans will "feel" it sooner than later for sure but will it collectively alter the american exceptionalism 'i'll be fine' mindset nation-wide that controls vast swathes of political power before then? I sure hope so but we have such a fundamentally broken congress with a senate being so thoroughly hosed on a fundamental-level that it's going to take awhile. Xaris fucked around with this message at 03:55 on Feb 22, 2019 |
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Feb 22, 2019 03:51
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I bought a house in Winnipeg, a city in an area with climate expected to support crops until the bitter end, and also protected by a floodway in a part of the world known for devastating floods. Its in an area easily serviced by public transit close to the core but also not in an area too close to the chronically poor areas. I'm gonna be rich when I sell my little house. Or dead.
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Feb 22, 2019 03:54
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Xaris posted:I honestly don't think American politicians are going to take it seriously with exception being some incredibly tepid Chuck Schumer-esque lipservice at best until all baby bombers and most of gen x are dead though, so another 25+ years? But yes millions of americans will "feel" it sooner than later for sure but will it collectively alter the american exceptionalism 'i'll be fine' mindset nation-wide that controls vast swathes of political power before then? I sure hope so but we have such a fundamentally broken congress with a senate being so thoroughly hosed on a fundamental-level that it's going to take awhile. We're one stochastic event away from politicians having to care about it imo. The population is primed for attributing extreme weather events to climate change and we're either going to have an event with a 5 digit death toll (think dam failure) or a 6 figure migration toll (think Arizona drought or wildfire). Maria, Harvey, Paradise fire are close but an order of magnitude or so too small in impact.
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Feb 22, 2019 04:10
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Luneshot posted:It's pretty hard to say for sure because of the inherently stochastic nature of climate change disasters and it really depends on what sort of trajectory we take with our carbon emissions. Since sea level rise is relatively slow, even the cities most vulnerable to it might still be populated. I've seen this but I am a little confused with their projections. Is good outcome meeting the Paris Accord and the other we do nothing? I wish there was a global projection with an estimate of how much each degree made a difference. Xaris posted:To Americans? Probably not for awhile, likely not even most of our lifetime sadly. We're going to see more poo poo like this with more extinctions cropping up; more mega droughts + mega floods, cities will be hit massively with people trying to move to somewhere inhabitable and being resisted locally, but it'll sort of been seen through a telescopic lens from the perspective of most americans. It's like watching how the german middle class and rest of europe was fairly nonchalant and w/e about the nazis because hey doesn't effect us; or how americans largely thought the great depression wouldn't affect them just some dopey farmers loving up until it then hit everyone; it's always very much "oh it can't happen to me" mentality. California wildfires, hurricane katrina, hurricane sandys/maria/whatever are all like "oh no that's tragic" and then mostly out of sight out of mind because "we" truly do not care what happens to anyone else as long as it doesn't happen till us and that belief that "its okay i'll be fine" is strongly pervasive. Of course until it does happen. It seems to me that some of us will notice but only if a major catastrophic event hits a major US Metropolitan Area. That's interesting that you picked 2100 but I assume we will see an impact by that point and the American Public won't just be sitting idle watching disaster movies and voting for Climate Change Deniers. Notorious R.I.M. posted:At the rate we're going, extinction rate will outrun infrastructure collapse from weather, so go wherever you want, just get ready to be hungry and sick and tired of jellyfish. I'm trying to predict or get some good estimate on how I should plan the rest of my life with climate change. I'm 33 now so I figure I won't be dead until 2080. And I'm looking for more than just don't move to New Orleans, Miami or Phoenix. Paradoxish posted:Miami is probably gone before most people posting here are into old age. It won't be entirely underwater yet, but the city is probably finished as a meaningful metropolitan area as soon as the real estate panic starts and everyone desperately tries to avoid being the one left holding the bag. That could happen sooner or later depending on how unlucky we are with storms. This is the part that gets me. Are all of Miami's flood protection projects just useless? I mean, they are are pouring nearly billions into flood protections into the city or at least some it with some extremely smart scientists. Or is all of this just wishful thinking and praying for a unicorn? Notorious R.I.M. posted:We're one stochastic event away from politicians having to care about it imo. The population is primed for attributing extreme weather events to climate change and we're either going to have an event with a 5 digit death toll (think dam failure) or a 6 figure migration toll (think Arizona drought or wildfire). Maria, Harvey, Paradise fire are close but an order of magnitude or so too small in impact. I agree completely but will it happen to a city in the United States? Or will people just shrug when it happens to a place like New Orleans? EvilJoven posted:I bought a house in Winnipeg, a city in an area with climate expected to support crops until the bitter end, and also protected by a floodway in a part of the world known for devastating floods. Its in an area easily serviced by public transit close to the core but also not in an area too close to the chronically poor areas. I'm trying to look at this angle. What's funny is the absolute scale of industries such as Oil & Gas and Tourism. There are so many pensions and 401ks based on these industries, how is it going to turn out in retirement when your nest egg loses 15-25% of it's value? On the other hand disaster capitalism! Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 05:13 on Feb 22, 2019 |
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Feb 22, 2019 05:02
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Tab8715 posted:Apologies if this had been discussed previously in the thread but what is the carbon neutral solution for ships, airplanes and heavy machinery like tractors? Liquid fuels created from hydrogen produced by solar/wind and carbon from the atmosphere
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Feb 22, 2019 06:32
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Yeah, if we can get enough electrical energy from renewable sources we can basically do anything. It's just a matter of applying that energy towards various kinds of processing.
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Feb 22, 2019 15:16
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Tab8715 posted:I'm trying to predict or get some good estimate on how I should plan the rest of my life with climate change. I'm 33 now so I figure I won't be dead until 2080. 2080? You think you'll live to be 94?
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Feb 22, 2019 17:27
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Life expectancy in the US increased by 26 years since 1960. An expected increase of 16 years in an equivalent amount of time is fairly sound I reckon? US life expectancy is trending down but if you don't kill yourself or overdose on opiates you should outlive the average without much effort. Of course this is all on the assumption that climate, war, disease, and/or abject poverty hasn't ravaged the US by then.
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Feb 22, 2019 18:21
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That's a really bad assumption to make.
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Feb 22, 2019 18:25
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It really is but that's more or less what the premise of living to 2080 requires. Bringing "with climate change" into the picture... it's impossible to answer, really. Especially given you don't need to die as a direct result of climate change (i.e., climate related disaster) to die as a result of climate change. Oh, by the way, I missed one there. The other leading killer besides suicide and opioid overdose is liver disease, especially among millenials, so careful with that binge drinking you can die just as well with the bottle as the needle.
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Feb 22, 2019 18:34
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Tab8715 posted:
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Feb 22, 2019 18:39
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Oracle posted:Doesn't matter how much flood protection they build in, salt water is going to seep into the groundwater via the limestone, its already happening. Once there's no freshwater you can build all the walls you want unless you include some (seriously expensive) desalinization plants noone's going to be able to live or farm there. quote:About half of South Florida’s public water supply goes toward keeping lawns and other landscaping green.
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Feb 22, 2019 18:55
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Ginette Reno posted:2080? You think you'll live to be 94? Is that too high? I'm in excellent health, regularly exercise and don't generally eat garbage. I did grow up in the Midwest but have been wise enough to stop the ridiculous binge drinking.
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Feb 22, 2019 19:24
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Perry Mason Jar posted:It really is but that's more or less what the premise of living to 2080 requires. Bringing "with climate change" into the picture... it's impossible to answer, really. Especially given you don't need to die as a direct result of climate change (i.e., climate related disaster) to die as a result of climate change. Having a solid grasp on what the world will require with climate change is going to be incredibly difficult to estimate. I have no doubt about that but it's also clear there quite a few things that do stand out. Not living in a low coastal area or in Southwest Desert. Investing in tourism or real estate is going to become difficult. I suspect those in politics, business leaders, military, scientists, etc. will be inevitably taken care of but really like in any major crisis those with wealth are those ones that'll survive and might not be entirely miserable.
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Feb 22, 2019 19:29
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The Miami ep of Sinking Cities is pretty neat*: https://www.pbs.org/video/sinking-cities-miami-bcdxzj/ One of the more  parts involves a city official suggesting that they might simply build slightly higher roads over existing ones every few decades. * Damning
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Feb 22, 2019 19:30
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