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bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

Kase Im Licht posted:

So I'm just going to pick your post to respond to but it's more of a general thing.


The whole point was flatten the curve right? Not stay indoors until we find a cure? Why are people now acting like it's the second? The success of South Korea and Taiwan (China is loving lying and Singapore is now seeing an increase in cases) won't last because at some point they have to open up and then they'll get it. Closures for 18 months for a vaccine aren't realistic because you can't just write people checks when there's nothing to buy with those checks. The world economy will need to open up well before that and people will go nuts and demand to be let out before that.

And we have flattened the curve already. The US isn't maxing out ICU beds or ventilators. Cuomo already said NYC is good on ventilators and net ICU admissions were at least briefly down as of a couple days ago. No area in the US is going to get hit as hard as NYC was because despite ranting about evil red-staters not being responsible, South Dakota at it's most irresponsible is still more socially distant that NYC at it's most locked down. Those people outside the door in Ohio that everyone is mocking are still about half of a NYC subway car.

Now we know even in a fairly worst case scenario we can keep up with it, and most places will go much slower than NYC did. Isn't the best plan to keep infections at a steady rate that we can handle but gets this over with? Or that concentrates infections among the younger so that maybe you get to a kind of herd immunity by the time old people start saying gently caress it I want to see my grandkids and I don't care if I die? So open things up, require masks, ban concerts and other super large gatherings that might lead to jumps you can't handle but let people go to work.

Sweden may look bad now, but the question is how will they look when this is all over, and if everyone's number of deaths are basically equal except for places like Italy that got overwhelmed early, the closest thing to winners will be the places that kept their economies running through it.

You don’t “open things up” when your new case rate/fatality rate is at its peak you enormous idiot.

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Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
i know what you're thinking... did he wipe with six squares, or only five? well to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, i kind of lost track myself. but being that this is a triple-ply Charmin, the most powerful TP in the world, and would blow your butt clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' well do ya, punk?

HugeGrossBurrito
Mar 20, 2018

bird with big dick posted:

You don’t “open things up” when your new case rate/fatality rate is at its peak you enormous idiot.

sir you cant speak to the president like that

bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

Shaocaholica posted:

Nursing homes just keep the dead around for the living to look at or something?

"Hey there's Fred we played bingo on Wednesday. Looks like he got the roni."

Not just to look at...

Earwicker
Jan 6, 2003

Chomp8645 posted:

Every person and nation has two goals right now.

1) Fewest deaths possible.

2) Least economic damage possible.


Obviously it is impossible to keep both to a minimum level at the same time. I leave it to you judge which path a given place is more likely to prioritize. And yes I realize it's kind of a false choice. That is irrelevant if it is widely believed to be a genuine choice, which it is in the United States.

i think it is more than a bit naive to think that "every person" actually shares goal number one here, especially people in power

I said come in!
Jun 22, 2004

Earwicker posted:

i think it is more than a bit naive to think that "every person" actually shares goal number one, especially people in power

Well we know that, a few politicians have expressed on national TV that they welcome death themselves and are perfectly okay with seeing countless people die.

Nurge
Feb 4, 2009

by Reene
Fun Shoe

I said come in! posted:

It doesn't matter what people want. We are on the time schedule of the virus. We can come out and start up the economy again once it's done killing. If we relax isolation early then we just go back to square one of this pandemic and start all over again.

The biggest problem is that these guys are saying that with social isolation in place getting to a herd immunity stage would take roughly six years. So basically the situation is that unless we can get a vaccine out in the next few years 2/3 of the planet is going to get it no matter what we do. And even then probably because there's no way to keep society segregated for three years or whatever.

Jeza
Feb 13, 2011

The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.
People are beyond delusional if they think that lockdown won't see some form of easing in the next few months. If you think countries will remain in this stasis for 2 years or more you simply have no grip on reality.

Andrast
Apr 21, 2010


Jeza posted:

People are beyond delusional if they think that lockdown won't see some form of easing in the next few months. If you think countries will remain in this stasis for 2 years or more you simply have no grip on reality.

I doubt it's going to even take months

Colonel Cancer
Sep 26, 2015

Tune into the fireplace channel, you absolute buffoon
Long established order can collapse and people who live through it typically deny it for as long as possible.

Burt Sexual
Jan 26, 2006

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Switchblade Switcharoo
You think we got a morgue, ventilator, hospital crew problems now. Lol

bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

You’re beyond delusional if you think any sort of governmental decree to get back to work is going to get me to stop playing Kerbal space program and leave my basement.

Colonel Cancer
Sep 26, 2015

Tune into the fireplace channel, you absolute buffoon
This would be a fun time to read some first person accounts of the period between 1989 and early 90s in what used to be USSR

bomb
Nov 3, 2005


Didn’t the Black Plague reduce income inequality? Maybe this will as well?

Earwicker
Jan 6, 2003

i dont think theres any way the US would "remain in stasis" for two years when we arent even in any kind of stasis now, we have localized social distancing that has proven effective on a regional level but we also have areas where lockdowns are not being enforced resulting in poo poo like this:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/15/coronavirus-hot-spots-farm-belt-189272

quote:

The only hospital in Grand Island, Neb., is full. The mayor has asked for a statewide stay-at-home order that the GOP governor insists isn’t needed. More than one-third of those tested for coronavirus in the surrounding county are positive — and there aren’t enough tests to go around.

the result is not going to be one big "second wave" but a series of waves moving around the country which is going to get really messy combined with all these protest movements springing up

Earwicker fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Apr 16, 2020

Rockman Reserve
Oct 2, 2007

"Carbons? Purge? What are you talking about?!"

bird with big dick posted:

You’re beyond delusional if you think any sort of governmental decree to get back to work is going to get me to stop playing Kerbal space program and leave my basement.

I got this when it was on sale last week but am too swamped at work to fire it up. Is it cool though y/n

Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E
This planet and our civilization has seen lots of plagues. Only this one is accompanied by the 24hour news cycle and social media.

I said come in!
Jun 22, 2004

Burt Sexual posted:

You think we got a morgue, ventilator, hospital crew problems now. Lol

Yeah, not only are there going to be millions dead from just COVID-19 alone, but also tens of millions of deaths from other diseases, injuries, preventable stuff too, things that don't normally kill people, are now going to because hospitals are overwhelmed and there is a lack of medication, supplies, and medical staff. poo poo is going to continue to get grim as gently caress for the next few years, and I am worried that people are not mentally prepared for that.

Nurge
Feb 4, 2009

by Reene
Fun Shoe

bomb posted:

Didn’t the Black Plague reduce income inequality? Maybe this will as well?

Probably purely due to the people holding 99.9% of the wealth dying off. I don't think that's going to happen this time since they're just going to spread to other richie riches.

NihilismNow
Aug 31, 2003

bomb posted:

Didn’t the Black Plague reduce income inequality? Maybe this will as well?

Having a significant portion of the population dead increased the value of labour. Even if it kills a full 1-2% of the world population that will only slow down population growth.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
even if everything was opened up today, if you've got 80-90%+ of people who are still afraid of the virus you're not going to have a roaring economy anyhow

if you want to restart stuff people need to feel safe, that they're not going to endanger themselves or their loved ones by seeing a movie or eating out. the gov't needs to gain that trust by mass testing so they it's clear to everybody where is safe and where is at risk, and by taking actions to lower that risk where necessary

life does need to go on - we can't keep the word in stasis forever. but the reality is that we (the US) got ourselves in a really crappy situation and it's going to be a long hard road back to anything resembling normal. if we had built out our testing capability in January and kept a lid on anything from popping off we could be much closer to that today, but that's not what happened

we know we need to gradually open up again, and we know that as that happens the virus will come back. we have to manage that as best we can, but as long as the fear is out there the economy will always be crippled. imo

at least the US produces enough food for its own citizens. imagine sitting in some place in East Africa watching locusts eat all of your food as you wait in lockdown. what sort of future for your country might you imagine then? things are going to get real

Turrurrurrurrrrrrr
Dec 22, 2018

I hope this is "battle" enough for you, friend.


Being a Patriot and a Hero prohibited? Not in my United States!

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf
Well lets take a look one country brave enough to stand up the virus and keep living their lives

https://twitter.com/ObsoleteDogma/status/1248692548375322626

:ohno:

I said come in!
Jun 22, 2004

Mozi posted:

even if everything was opened up today, if you've got 80-90%+ of people who are still afraid of the virus you're not going to have a roaring economy anyhow

if you want to restart stuff people need to feel safe, that they're not going to endanger themselves or their loved ones by seeing a movie or eating out. the gov't needs to gain that trust by mass testing so they it's clear to everybody where is safe and where is at risk, and by taking actions to lower that risk where necessary

life does need to go on - we can't keep the word in stasis forever. but the reality is that we (the US) got ourselves in a really crappy situation and it's going to be a long hard road back to anything resembling normal. if we had built out our testing capability in January and kept a lid on anything from popping off we could be much closer to that today, but that's not what happened

we know we need to gradually open up again, and we know that as that happens the virus will come back. we have to manage that as best we can, but as long as the fear is out there the economy will always be crippled. imo

Also this, I sure as gently caress am not leaving my home, pretty much under no circumstances. Amazon Fresh delivery is in my future for a very long time to come. I take my dog for a walk each day but that is pretty much it.

Burt Sexual
Jan 26, 2006

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Switchblade Switcharoo
The most realistic lockdown duration I’ve heard is through 2021, 2022 isn’t mainstream from what I’ve seen. Hell la even shutdown all events until 2022 starts.

Earwicker
Jan 6, 2003

Shaocaholica posted:

This planet and our civilization has seen lots of plagues. Only this one is accompanied by the 24hour news cycle and social media.

we also have a lot more long distance/international travel than we did during those plagues

Meme Poker Party
Sep 1, 2006

by Azathoth

bird with big dick posted:

You’re beyond delusional if you think any sort of governmental decree to get back to work is going to get me to stop playing Kerbal space program and leave my basement.

I salute you, soldier of the revolution.

tater_salad
Sep 15, 2007


it sure would be nice if we had good testing, and some PPE..

Hopper
Dec 28, 2004

BOOING! BOOING!
Grimey Drawer
We have seen pandemics before. The problem wit this one is that people are not scared. People will not adhere to restrictions until everybody knows at least 1 person who is severely suffering or died of this. Then they might start to be afraid. But today's society is far to used to being safe to realize this poo poo is at your doorstep everywhere.

This might also be different if Corona was some nasty rear end illness that makes you bleed from all orifices or explodes your head, footage would be all over the Internet and it would be tangible. Right now it is "just the flu" and nobody cares.

Nurge
Feb 4, 2009

by Reene
Fun Shoe
People can have some a testing. as a treat.

Lodin
Jul 31, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Look at this nice man, can you guess what he wants?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WE6B9Mmvpyo

Nurge
Feb 4, 2009

by Reene
Fun Shoe

Hopper posted:

We have seen pandemics before. The problem wit this one is that people are not scared. People will not adhere to restrictions until everybody knows at least 1 person who is severely suffering or died of this. Then they might start to be afraid. But today's society is far to used to being safe to realize this poo poo is at your doorstep everywhere.

This might also be different if Corona was some nasty rear end illness that makes you bleed from all orifices or explodes your head, footage would be all over the Internet and it would be tangible. Right now it is "just the flu" and nobody cares.

It's no different. People weren't scared in the old days till they actualy saw the dying either. It's all the same.

e: The difference is everything is global. A country (south korea) can't remove restrictions and not get superfucked immediately. Everything is connected now.

boar guy
Jan 25, 2007

Hopper posted:

We have seen pandemics before. The problem wit this one is that people are not scared. People will not adhere to restrictions until everybody knows at least 1 person who is severely suffering or died of this. Then they might start to be afraid. But today's society is far to used to being safe to realize this poo poo is at your doorstep everywhere.

This might also be different if Corona was some nasty rear end illness that makes you bleed from all orifices or explodes your head, footage would be all over the Internet and it would be tangible. Right now it is "just the flu" and nobody cares.

people can't connect the dots between 'im healthy and this probably won't kill me so i'm going out' and 'why is this ER so crowded that my kid who broke his ankle playing soccer can't get seen for three days'

Shit Fuckasaurus
Oct 14, 2005

i think right angles might be an abomination against nature you guys
Lipstick Apathy

Kase Im Licht posted:

The whole point was flatten the curve right? Not stay indoors until we find a cure? Why are people now acting like it's the second? The success of South Korea and Taiwan (China is loving lying and Singapore is now seeing an increase in cases) won't last because at some point they have to open up and then they'll get it. Closures for 18 months for a vaccine aren't realistic because you can't just write people checks when there's nothing to buy with those checks. The world economy will need to open up well before that and people will go nuts and demand to be let out before that.


The newest data is in line with what we've found in other, similar viruses in the past: there is little long-term immunity developed from having Covid-19 and as such there is no such thing as long-term herd immunity through exposure. Not in a year, not in 6, not ever. We have to develop a vaccine that will cause a more pronounced immune response before "herd immunity" even becomes a rational concept to discuss again, and when we do, we have to distribute it to as much of the populace as possible, possibly including regular booster shots, before we will have herd immunity of any sort.

Opening up and going back to business as usual results in the virus sweeping back and forth across the nation in erratic waves, killing millions. Reopening is not even similar in any way to a valid solution, and trying it will result in deaths with literally no benefit.

The winners, economically, will be the countries that enforce enough of a lockdown that they don't lose a significant chunk of their population to the disease before it is controlled. The countries that reopen their economies to "preserve" them will be laughing all the way to the bank until their economies collapse out from under them.

Shit Fuckasaurus fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Apr 16, 2020

Bleusilences
Jun 23, 2004

Be careful for what you wish for.

Burt Sexual posted:

The most realistic lockdown duration I’ve heard is through 2021, 2022 isn’t mainstream from what I’ve seen. Hell la even shutdown all events until 2022 starts.

Trudeau(Canada's PM) says that we wont get anything resembling normalcy until 2022.

Nurge
Feb 4, 2009

by Reene
Fun Shoe

Bleusilences posted:

Trudeau(Canada's PM) says that we wont get anything resembling normalcy until 2022.

The problem is you can't keep people doing this for that long. People are literally going crazy because they're not used to being alone. Like a year is pushing it.

Fartbox
Apr 27, 2017
What's happening? Dri fu an only two? what is this?
Is this an avatar? I don't know rm dunk

I'm pretty sure all the unemployed people are going to go insane and start a riot if this lasts to 2022 lol

Bleusilences
Jun 23, 2004

Be careful for what you wish for.

Nurge posted:

The problem is you can't keep people doing this for that long. People are literally going crazy because they're not used to being alone. Like a year is pushing it.

Like I said in another thread I am almost a shut in and I am going nuts to not be able to do simple thing like go get a coffee. I can't imagine what/how an extrovert feels like right now.

Kase Im Licht
Jan 26, 2001

bird with big dick posted:

You don’t “open things up” when your new case rate/fatality rate is at its peak you enormous idiot.
One, please show me where I said we must do this now.

Second, your statement is obviously false without context. If you can handle the peak, it being a peak is irrelevant.

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bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

food court bailiff posted:

I got this when it was on sale last week but am too swamped at work to fire it up. Is it cool though y/n

It’s great but I’m waiting for the sequel.

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