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b0ng
Jan 16, 2004

Thats a nice Game 7 you have there. Would be a shame if somebody nailed it down.

zoux posted:

No. Also he isn't particularly outspoken on that issue relative to other statewide electeds, and his chamber is so conservative you'd never get a bill on the floor. If anything, you're more likely to see them try and tighten restrictions, given the hemp loophole they created last session that let the dread cities essentially decriminalize.

Patrick has said many times that any weed decrim bills would be DOA and it did cause some R’s to speak out about it. (https://www.texastribune.org/2019/05/24/dan-patrick-against-republican-party-platform-texas-marijuana/ ) Granted, I have the same doubts you probably do about any of those 3 chuckleheads losing an election here but this issue does seem to be one issue that progressives and conservatives could theoretically be more aligned on.

I am most definitely spinning my wheels here but the more states next to us keep legalizing the more people think it’s dumb that we don’t have the same protections. Of course, Texans seem more than fine enabling legislature that won’t legalize gambling even though it’s the same situation basically.

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Numlock
May 19, 2007

The simplest seppo on the forums

b0ng posted:

Does anybody believe there is any possibility at all to defeat Dan Patrick in 2022 over his outspoken hatred of weed legislation amongst R’s? Right now there is some talk about how Mississippi has voted in more progressive weed laws and how Texas should be ashamed and blah blah blah. Obviously it would not be the only argument against him but are there any possible inroads here to get R’s pissed off about “freedoms” and getting him the gently caress out?

I really don’t see any candidate from the left that would have a shot against him, but it does seem like it should be something that Texas Dems could make hay on if they loving tried for once in their lives.

Personally I'm a little wary of drawing to many definitive conclusions about the Democratic chances in 2022 based on this election. Tons of new voters who id bet won't show up for midterms, the most polarizing president ever was on the ballot (but will be memory holed by 2022) and coronavirus.

If the texas dems run a guy who does out reach to Texas Latinos and focuses on Texas issues they can win. If they have to tell the national party platform to pound sand then they should do so. Its all about GOTV and base enthusiasum.

SlothfulCobra
Mar 27, 2011

ShadowHawk posted:

Have you actually eaten one? My understanding was that wild boar are unpalatable due to boar taint.

I have it on good authority from a menhir salesman that boar meat is extremely delicious.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

b0ng posted:

Patrick has said many times that any weed decrim bills would be DOA and it did cause some R’s to speak out about it. (https://www.texastribune.org/2019/05/24/dan-patrick-against-republican-party-platform-texas-marijuana/ ) Granted, I have the same doubts you probably do about any of those 3 chuckleheads losing an election here but this issue does seem to be one issue that progressives and conservatives could theoretically be more aligned on.

I am most definitely spinning my wheels here but the more states next to us keep legalizing the more people think it’s dumb that we don’t have the same protections. Of course, Texans seem more than fine enabling legislature that won’t legalize gambling even though it’s the same situation basically.

Party platforms are essentially meaningless.

If you want my opinion on when we get legal weed here, it'll be after the feds decriminalize or deschedule it and the amount of federal money for drug interdiction drops out.

Numlock posted:

Personally I'm a little wary of drawing to many definitive conclusions about the Democratic chances in 2022 based on this election. Tons of new voters who id bet won't show up for midterms, the most polarizing president ever was on the ballot (but will be memory holed by 2022) and coronavirus.

Especially since we don’t even have a complete set of data yet. Of course, we're all gonna do it anyway but it's important to keep in mind

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

I think the ideal would be Trump continues to make an rear end of himself and complain and whine but not be on the ballot. That might drive D turnout but R not so much, if 2018 and 2020 are anything to go on.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Badger of Basra posted:

I think the ideal would be Trump continues to make an rear end of himself and complain and whine but not be on the ballot. That might drive D turnout but R not so much, if 2018 and 2020 are anything to go on.

This is my expectation as well. I think an angry, vengeful Trump is going to be more of a drag on the GOP than a help, I just don't buy him as a kingmaker, deftly dispatching his devoted followers to this primary and that

People really hate that motherfucker and I think even many Trumpy people are going to get sick and tired of him whining and crying.

What I think is most likely is that his twitter gets banned shortly after Jan 20 and we hear very little from him until he dies in 5-10 years. But I also think a bunch of wrong stuff, all the time! As recently as 6 pm CST last Tuesday

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

alright, you houston demographics nerds: what's your analysis

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

looks like mixed results in black areas, latinos to trump, whites to biden. reflects elsewhere

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

i say swears online posted:

alright, you houston demographics nerds: what's your analysis



I feel like we really need some gender data on this. I know before the election polls said Trump did better with minority men than minority women so is it just toxic masculinity? But obviously the polls aren’t great so maybe it includes women too. I guess we’ll find out when they get the data in like two years.

TropicalCoke
Feb 14, 2012

i say swears online posted:

alright, you houston demographics nerds: what's your analysis



That's a surprisingly blue Spring Klein Tomball

LLSix
Jan 20, 2010

The real power behind countless overlords

b0ng posted:

Of course, Texans seem more than fine enabling legislature that won’t legalize gambling even though it’s the same situation basically.

My understanding is that gambling is often a de facto regressive tax. The most frequent gamblers are those with the least financial literacy. Individuals with low financial literacy are also more prone to gambling more than they can afford. Since financial literacy is less common in lower income families, state lotteries and other forms of gambling effectively funnel income from people who are already poor to people who are already rich. Even casinos on native american land are often run by outside companies who siphon off large portions of the profits.

The best fix is higher financial literacy, possibly through a useful economics course in junior high because really poor students often don't make it through high school. Good luck with getting support for that though.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

I had a homeschooled friend growing up whose parents didn't let him learn probabilities because it wasn't Christian

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

God does not play dice

LLSix
Jan 20, 2010

The real power behind countless overlords

i say swears online posted:

I had a homeschooled friend growing up whose parents didn't let him learn probabilities because it wasn't Christian

That's horrifying! Please tell me you're joking.

One of my neighbor's growing up was a crazy preacher. He wouldn't let his kids play games at his house, not even board games. The first time we played Risk with them they figured out how to cheat by dropping the dice instead of rolling them so they would always win the fights. His kids were the biggest cheaters I ever met. We uh... we didn't play many games with them once we figured out they were cheating. At least one of them grew up to be car salesman. So I can believe you, I really don't want to, though.

LLSix fucked around with this message at 18:44 on Nov 8, 2020

FoolyCharged
Oct 11, 2012

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!
Somebody call for an ant?

b0ng posted:

Of course, Texans seem more than fine enabling legislature that won’t legalize gambling even though it’s the same situation basically.

Gambling is actually insanely predatory, beyond lovely and is nothing like weed.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/mikefinger/status/1325513136645033987

lmao

Dameius
Apr 3, 2006

i say swears online posted:

alright, you houston demographics nerds: what's your analysis



9 and 29 and parts of 18 are heavy minority majority so that doesn't look surprising given Biden's active hostility to Latino/a activists.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/natalykeo/status/1325514100533817345

Wow not in the cosmopolitan metropolis of uh Grapevine

Alkydere
Jun 7, 2010
Capitol: A building or complex of buildings in which any legislature meets.
Capital: A city designated as a legislative seat by the government or some other authority, often the city in which the government is located; otherwise the most important city within a country or a subdivision of it.



zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/natalykeo/status/1325514100533817345

Wow not in the cosmopolitan metropolis of uh Grapevine

I'm sure their support is critical for flipping the battleground state of Texas from Red to um...Red. :rolleyes:

hawowanlawow
Jul 27, 2009

downtown grapevine is the one stop shop for old harley loving rich guys and wine moms

Arcella
Dec 16, 2013

Shiny and Chrome
On that national trends map Galveston county was very slightly more Biden compared to 2016 which I found surprising.

BoosterDuck
Mar 2, 2019

hawowanlawow posted:

downtown grapevine is the one stop shop for old harley loving rich guys and wine moms

and legoland discovery center

Jiro
Jan 13, 2004

There's a Biden/Harris car parade happening right through the middle of my town right now. :unsmith: Mcallen may be late but at least they came out.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-ends-truce-by-warning-incompetent-democratic-party

Also AOC is absolutely correct. We really need ,as a state, to start seeing who would be decent progressive candidates for the House in all blue districts.

radical meme
Apr 17, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

hawowanlawow posted:

downtown grapevine is the one stop shop for old harley loving rich guys and wine moms

Lol, Grapevine is a mid-life crisis boomer paradise.

radical meme
Apr 17, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Jiro posted:



https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-ends-truce-by-warning-incompetent-democratic-party

Also AOC is absolutely correct. We really need ,as a state, to start seeing who would be decent progressive candidates for the House in all blue districts.

There's lots of stuff flying around on this right now. It's gonna be a hotly debated issue and, in my opinion, a bullshit distraction from real issues that need to be addressed immediately. Until a complete understanding of the data and numbers are available, why even start fighting over 2022 or beyond.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

A lot of the swing district candidates were pretty progressive this time around. Siegel, Oliver, Valenzuela, probably some I’m missing, all positioned themselves as progressive. The two moderate incumbent swing Ds won and they all lost.

I think people on both sides of the argument want to be able to tell a just-so story about supporting M4A guarantees either a loss or a win but it doesn’t.

Jiro
Jan 13, 2004

radical meme posted:

There's lots of stuff flying around on this right now. It's gonna be a hotly debated issue and, in my opinion, a bullshit distraction from real issues that need to be addressed immediately. Until a complete understanding of the data and numbers are available, why even start fighting over 2022 or beyond.

I feel it's more of getting ahead of the establishment to start putting those mechanisms and key people that got Biden/Harris elected in the first place. There's nothing to say you can't do both, analysis of voter data and WHY it happened the way it did can and should happen while making sure that grassroots and progressive agendas are pushed to the forefront and kept there.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Badger of Basra posted:

A lot of the swing district candidates were pretty progressive this time around. Siegel, Oliver, Valenzuela, probably some I’m missing, all positioned themselves as progressive. The two moderate incumbent swing Ds won and they all lost.

I think people on both sides of the argument want to be able to tell a just-so story about supporting M4A guarantees either a loss or a win but it doesn’t.

What's crazy is that this incomplete electoral analysis completely confirms MY priors! I was right all along!

SlothfulCobra
Mar 27, 2011

I went down a street I don't normally walk down in my neighborhood, and the first house on the street is super pro-Biden with like 2 yard signs and big vertical Biden 2020 banners, but since the house is kinda recessed, you can't see any of that from the main road, but you can see the Trump sign that his neighbor put down at the front of his driveway.

I feel like there's symbolism in that.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

zoux posted:

What's crazy is that this incomplete electoral analysis completely confirms MY priors! I was right all along!

casar won ergo he'll beat abbott in two years

No Safe Word
Feb 26, 2005

i say swears online posted:

alright, you houston demographics nerds: what's your analysis



It tells me there's a disappointingly high number of Biden/Crenshaw voters with how little red there is in TX-2

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

i say swears online posted:

casar won ergo he'll beat abbott in two years

That's my mortal 🔒 🔒 🔒 pick of the 2022 cycle. Along with Blue Texas of course.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

zoux posted:

What's crazy is that this incomplete electoral analysis completely confirms MY priors! I was right all along!

Yeah it's crazy how people who don't vote for Democrats do that for the same reasons I do

e: and also the people who don't vote at all, they agree with me, as well

MysteriousStranger
Mar 3, 2016
My "vacation" is a euphemism for war tourism in Ukraine for some "bloody work" to escape my boring techie job and family.

Ask me about my warcrimes.

FoolyCharged
Oct 11, 2012

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!
Somebody call for an ant?

That rat has mad push up game

Comrayn
Jul 22, 2008

No Safe Word posted:

It tells me there's a disappointingly high number of Biden/Crenshaw voters with how little red there is in TX-2

That doesn’t seem to be what the colors mean at all. I might be misunderstanding it’s a really weird color scale. Pale colors mean it went for Trump I think?

Legato
Jul 7, 2004

Un cave troll espectacular!
It "just" means that Biden did better with the suburbs but didn't retain as much of the Clinton vote in the city.

Whether or not these types of trends which are mirrored across the nation mean anything going forward is something altogether different. The optimist in me wants to believe that the "Trump factor" will never be recaptured, at least not that specific formula. There's all sorts of interesting ways it could go in 2022, 2024 and beyond but if Trump himself is out of the picture, we may need to relearn everything we know, or think we know, about how to win support in various demographics in Texas all over again.

Mistaken Frisbee
Jul 19, 2007

zoux posted:

What's crazy is that this incomplete electoral analysis completely confirms MY priors! I was right all along!

Yeah, I think I've seen every hot take in every possible direction how this election proves that DSA-endorsed/leftist politics don't work or how this election proves moderate politics don't work, or how leftists are the only reason Biden won or how Republicans or swing voters are the only reason Biden won. Entirely based on whatever folks already believed pre-election.

Comrayn
Jul 22, 2008
The only one that is definitely not true is crediting moderate republicans voting Biden. Trump got an even bigger share than 2016, without the uniquely loathed image of Hillary Clinton helping him. Anyone trying to convince you democrats can get some republican voters if they just compromised a little more is either a grifter or doing outright sabotage.

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Yngwie Mangosteen
Aug 23, 2007

Why are we posting Buttigieg's workout routine?

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