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Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Stairmaster posted:

tbh after loum zeon should have just won the war by virtue of having control of the orbits.
I don't blame Tomino for not thinking of this, but if Zeon had used the "rods from God" idea instead of colony drops, they probably would have won the war, especially with a surprise attack. And "destroying Jaburo and the top ten Federal military bases in a decapitation strike" is a very different story from "waxing unaligned Sides because you think Hitler was the compromise candidate"

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wdarkk
Oct 26, 2007

Friends: Protected
World: Saved
Crablettes: Eaten
Maybe Zeon was just good at opsec, and nobody in the Fed high command actually knew how thin Zeon's tether was until Revell came back and was like "I saw it with my own eyes!"

Warmachine
Jan 30, 2012



wdarkk posted:

Maybe Zeon was just good at opsec, and nobody in the Fed high command actually knew how thin Zeon's tether was until Revell came back and was like "I saw it with my own eyes!"

:sigh: No no, it's probably again another unsubtle WWII parallel, in the same vein as "The Zero is literally impossible" or "As if the [slur]s could build a better torpedo than the British."

tsob
Sep 26, 2006

Chalalala~

Nessus posted:

I don't blame Tomino for not thinking of this, but if Zeon had used the "rods from God" idea instead of colony drops, they probably would have won the war, especially with a surprise attack. And "destroying Jaburo and the top ten Federal military bases in a decapitation strike" is a very different story from "waxing unaligned Sides because you think Hitler was the compromise candidate"

It doesn't matter if Tomino didn't think of it, because what he did think of was "Gihren doesn't care about efficiently decapitating the Federation as a military opponent and is more concerned with decimating the population of the Earthsphere to suit his own twisted ideals regarding resources". Using orbital railcannons against selective targets might have been tactically sound, but it wouldn't create the devastation that Gihren wanted. You need some really big rods for that, and that's basically what he used. The writers of Gundam Century a year or two later also kind of invalidated the need to explain why that wasn't used by pointing out that Jaburo was buried so far underground, and so heavily fortified that only something on the scale of a colony drop would penetrate through to it. They didn't say using rods from god wouldn't do it, but they did point out that even nukes wouldn't, so I think it's a safe bet.

drrockso20
May 6, 2013

Has Not Actually Done Cocaine

tsob posted:

It doesn't matter if Tomino didn't think of it, because what he did think of was "Gihren doesn't care about efficiently decapitating the Federation as a military opponent and is more concerned with decimating the population of the Earthsphere to suit his own twisted ideals regarding resources". Using orbital railcannons against selective targets might have been tactically sound, but it wouldn't create the devastation that Gihren wanted. You need some really big rods for that, and that's basically what he used. The writers of Gundam Century a year or two later also kind of invalidated the need to explain why that wasn't used by pointing out that Jaburo was buried so far underground, and so heavily fortified that only something on the scale of a colony drop would penetrate through to it. They didn't say using rods from god wouldn't do it, but they did point out that even nukes wouldn't, so I think it's a safe bet.

Frankly nukes are actually pretty bad at bunker busting anyways*, well at least standard ones, a Casaba Howitzer^ would probably work somewhat better but there's still better ways of attacking something like Jaburo anyways

*there's a reason I keep bringing up how poorly built and inaccurate colonies in Gundam are, real O'Neill colonies would be as hard to attack as Jaburo is, both in terms of durability and how lethal the approach is

^like the nuke that the GP02 uses

chiasaur11
Oct 22, 2012



wdarkk posted:

Maybe Zeon was just good at opsec, and nobody in the Fed high command actually knew how thin Zeon's tether was until Revell came back and was like "I saw it with my own eyes!"

That's something that matches with the show fairly well, considering Zeon had agents at all but the highest levels of Federation command. One of the officers on Revil's command ship was a traitor, after all.

As for the overall situation, it wasn't as dire as it looked, since the Federation still had Luna II to let them contest Zeon's control of the orbits, but Loum was enough to break almost anyone's spirit.

The Federation went in with the largest space fleet ever assembled, under their best commanders, against a relatively tiny Zeon fleet under Dozel Zabi, a short tempered brute who probably got his post due to nepotism.

Then they got eaten alive. Their commander was captured, several more were killed, and the overwhelming majority of the fleet was destroyed. Sure, Zeon took a lot of damage as well, but if they managed that kind of win with that small a fleet, who knew what they were going to try the next time?

Even then, it was unknown how the Federation would come down, so Degwin was hoping Revil would go "this war is awful, Degwin Zabi can be a reasonable man, let's just put an end to this bloodshed." and provide a strong shove towards a conditional surrender. Revil, meanwhile, was paying close attention to all the little details his host didn't want him to see, and noticed that Loum was Zeon's one big push. And thus, Antarctica.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



drrockso20 posted:

Frankly nukes are actually pretty bad at bunker busting anyways*, well at least standard ones, a Casaba Howitzer^ would probably work somewhat better but there's still better ways of attacking something like Jaburo anyways

*there's a reason I keep bringing up how poorly built and inaccurate colonies in Gundam are, real O'Neill colonies would be as hard to attack as Jaburo is, both in terms of durability and how lethal the approach is

^like the nuke that the GP02 uses
I thought UC generally respects this which is why most of the colony kills were either from armed assault (I imagine a squad of Zakus pre-anything-rivalling a Zaku could just run riot inside of a colony and leave it to die, possibly with the people in shelters dying some time later from rescue that never comes) or gas warfare.

tsob
Sep 26, 2006

Chalalala~

Stairmaster posted:

tbh after loum zeon should have just won the war by virtue of having control of the orbits.

Going off older databooks, while Zeon did win Loum; it was kind of a Pyrrhic victory and they lost so much military hardware and manpower doing it that they were nearly crippled in space themselves, and couldn't afford any more large scale battles to contest what little strength the Federation had in space (like Luna II). Which was only exacerbated by the need to defend Isle Iffish as it travelled to Earth. They finished the job, but between the two Zeon were down to the vapors in terms of spaceships and didn't even have a huge amount of mobile suits or anything left; which is why Garma's Earth assault force is mostly using aircraft, tanks etc. and a lot of their oceanic vessels are things they took from Federation bases. It took them the length of the stalemate to build back up their forces too.

Nessus posted:

I thought UC generally respects this which is why most of the colony kills were either from armed assault (I imagine a squad of Zakus pre-anything-rivalling a Zaku could just run riot inside of a colony and leave it to die, possibly with the people in shelters dying some time later from rescue that never comes) or gas warfare.

I don't think we ever really get scenes of how colonies were taken down beyond Isle Iffish being gassed. We do see some Zeon ships shooting beam cannons as a broadside in to a colony in the first 10(ish) episodes, and when we see the shells of colonies in Side 2 outside Solomon later in the show they all appear to have large holes consistent with beam damage too. Which implies most were taken out that way, rather than with gas or invasions by mobile suits.

chiasaur11
Oct 22, 2012



tsob posted:

Going off older databooks, while Zeon did win Loum; it was kind of a Pyrrhic victory and they lost so much military hardware and manpower doing it that they were nearly crippled in space themselves, and couldn't afford any more large scale battles to contest what little strength the Federation had in space (like Luna II). Which was only exacerbated by the need to defend Isle Iffish as it travelled to Earth. They finished the job, but between the two Zeon were down to the vapors in terms of spaceships and didn't even have a huge amount of mobile suits or anything left; which is why Garma's Earth assault force is mostly using aircraft, tanks etc. and a lot of their oceanic vessels are things they took from Federation bases. It took them the length of the stalemate to build back up their forces too.

Looking at the numbers from early databooks I can find, they definitely took some hits, but it wasn't down to vapors. All four of their battleships survived (although half of them were running on fumes and might have even had to be scrapped) as did a majority of their cruisers. It was real damage, but the Federation came out of Loum much worse, proportionally. It's just that the Feds could take more hits in the long run.

Frankly, the difficulty they had with assembling Mobile Suits for the Earth invasion probably comes from the magnitude of the attack. A multi-front war across the whole planet is insane, especially for a faction with no experience fighting in the gravity well. The fact that they were able to manage as well as they did suggests that Zeon still had significant assets, even if the Federation outgunned them.

Sjs00
Jun 29, 2013

Yeah Baby Yeah !
Io Fleming has a flashback in December Sky that shows Zaku I s with some mobility gear destroying Side 4 Moore. They're engaged by some core fighter looking aircraft.

Arc Hammer
Mar 4, 2013

Got any deathsticks?
I feel like the Zeon fleet taking some hits during Loum is still significant because as much as their strategy relied on Mobile Suits for superior agility and firepower, they still needed their Musai cruisers and other carriers to actually get them into combat. We've seen that Mobile Suits have a fairly low operational window in space combat because their thrusters are fuel hogs so they need a resupply ship nearby or a Musai. The Zeke fleet was bait to pull in the Federation at Loum but they could have stood to mitigate damage as much as possible. That's hard when your fleet is significantly smaller and not built for straight up slugfests like the Fed fleet.

Argas
Jan 13, 2008
SRW Fanatic




It's funny because the Musai's turret layout makes it ideal for big line formation battles. Now, it's not so useful for dealing with enemies everywhere because they have a severely limited rear firing arc. The Musai's shape does make it a bit harder to hit while leaving it incredibly vulnerable (not that it matters much with how fragile ships are in most UC). Turret locations on Federation ships make them more suited for mixing it up because they have weapons all over. Sure, it can't concentrate firepower nearly as well but Salamis and Magellans would've squeezed some advantage out of charging the Zeon lines.

Onmi
Jul 12, 2013

If someone says it one more time I'm having Florina show up as a corpse. I'm not even kidding, I was pissed off with people doing that shit back in 2010, and I'm not dealing with it now in 2016.
Zeon also won Loum because Tianem decided not to push for the aggressive play. Degwin himself said that Tianem's fleet could have gone to Side 3 basically unimpeded and destroyed the colony, utterly ending the war then and there. If Tianem was Bask, Zeon would have lost.

Argas
Jan 13, 2008
SRW Fanatic




Thanks Tianem

Arbite
Nov 4, 2009





chiasaur11 posted:

Even then, it was unknown how the Federation would come down, so Degwin was hoping Revil would go "this war is awful, Degwin Zabi can be a reasonable man, let's just put an end to this bloodshed." and provide a strong shove towards a conditional surrender. Revil, meanwhile, was paying close attention to all the little details his host didn't want him to see, and noticed that Loum was Zeon's one big push. And thus, Antarctica.

Revil noting Zeon was exhausted followed by them promptly occupying most of the Earth must have gotten him some funny looks.

gimme the GOD DAMN candy
Jul 1, 2007
i don't think anyone expected them to take the single most insane and self-defeating option possible. loading everyone up on side 3 and riding it into the ocean as a vendetta against whales would make more sense.

Burns
May 10, 2008

Even Iffish is inconsistent between mayfly, a nighmare sequence in 08th ms and how it was in origin.

tsob
Sep 26, 2006

Chalalala~

Arbite posted:

Revil noting Zeon was exhausted followed by them promptly occupying most of the Earth must have gotten him some funny looks.

Well, one of the main reasons they could do so was because the Federation was in total disarray for weeks after Isle Iffish hit the planet. Once the Federation regained some semblance of order, Zeon's advance pretty much immediately ground to a halt and the situation was a stalemate for several months as both sides built back up their resources, before the Federation threw Zeon off planet in short order. Zeon were facing a foe who lost billions of people in the space of days because of a worldwide artificial disaster, and yet still couldn't finish the job. Which doesn't sound like the most energized group around.

Onmi
Jul 12, 2013

If someone says it one more time I'm having Florina show up as a corpse. I'm not even kidding, I was pissed off with people doing that shit back in 2010, and I'm not dealing with it now in 2016.

tsob posted:

Well, one of the main reasons they could do so was because the Federation was in total disarray for weeks after Isle Iffish hit the planet. Once the Federation regained some semblance of order, Zeon's advance pretty much immediately ground to a halt and the situation was a stalemate for several months as both sides built back up their resources, before the Federation threw Zeon off planet in short order. Zeon were facing a foe who lost billions of people in the space of days because of a worldwide artificial disaster, and yet still couldn't finish the job. Which doesn't sound like the most energized group around.

Exactly. And keep in mind until the retcons added more and more, Operation Odessa was won by tanks and planes. The Gundam in the TV series is there to stop the nuke and otherwise not participate in an otherwise successful defeat of the Zeon forces holding Odessa. Zeon blitzed a lot of the earth using their control of space and then promptly fell into the meat grinder.

One thing I think is clear is Zeon is never, ever shown to have a path to victory. While the Federation made the Gundam and is constantly making progress, Zeon's progress is... trying to find Jaburo. Zeon takes no new territory in the show, they make no advances. They're losing power with each fight.

Gaius Marius
Oct 9, 2012

I wonder if something similar to frontals plan wouldn't have been the best way for zeon to win following loum. Just mass enough forces to take luna II and then camp out in orbit. Hopefully try and get some of the neutral colonies on side. I guess it'd come down to how long zeon can survive with little resources vs if the federation would take a settled peace instead of fully commiting to fighting a war in space.

Onmi
Jul 12, 2013

If someone says it one more time I'm having Florina show up as a corpse. I'm not even kidding, I was pissed off with people doing that shit back in 2010, and I'm not dealing with it now in 2016.

Gaius Marius posted:

I wonder if something similar to frontals plan wouldn't have been the best way for zeon to win following loum. Just mass enough forces to take luna II and then camp out in orbit. Hopefully, try and get some of the neutral colonies on side. I guess it'd come down to how long zeon can survive with little resources vs if the federation would take a settled peace instead of fully commiting to fighting a war in space.

The thing Zeon suffers from, which is a very WW2 thing, is resources. Like that's one of the main reasons that Germany lost WWII, they did not have the resources, specifically, oil. Zeon gave up all chance of having anyone on their side when they destroyed Side 2 and Side 4. And, bluntly... they couldn't take Luna II. The Tianem fleet was basically still at full strength and even with mobile suits, the Tianem fleet was able to hold its own against the Zeon space forces. It also turns into a game of whack-a-mole, as any Federation forces launched from the planet essentially become things Zeon can't stop, because they have no control of the ground or those production facilities and cannot take or hold Luna II without devastating losses.

That's the other important thing people tend to forget, The Battle of Loum was a slaughter, but not just on the side of the federation. While they did lose a significant portion of the Revil fleet, they killed a lot of Zeon forces. That was something established early for Kycillia, she took interest in the practical application of Newtypes from discovering that some pilots were dodging mega particle cannons before they fired, which, they shouldn't be able to do. But, by the time she got the clearance to properly test for this stuff, a lot of them were dead from being shot down or their Zaku's just being poo poo.

So let's say they decide to go throw themselves at Luna II, a vertiable fortress. They could take it, and more than likely lose the majority of their fleet. That's if the federation even lets them have it. They could detonate the whole base. So Zeon has just mulched themselves even more, and the next wave of earth forces are almost assuredly ready to launch into the atmosphere. There's no point in which Zeon just wins the war because bluntly, they can't. The whole war effort needs to be rethought.

tsob
Sep 26, 2006

Chalalala~

Onmi posted:

One thing I think is clear is Zeon is never, ever shown to have a path to victory. While the Federation made the Gundam and is constantly making progress, Zeon's progress is... trying to find Jaburo. Zeon takes no new territory in the show, they make no advances. They're losing power with each fight.

I don't know that that's entirely true, even in the original show. A Baoa Qu was presented as being a last stand for both sides, one last push that could destroy either side and that resulted in both sides being so exhausted that they just gave up and called it a draw afterwards. If the colony laser had done more damage or something though, then it'd probably give Zeon a victory. Now, the show does imply that the Federation have other fleets, since the fleet at A Baoa Qu is the 13th Autonomous Fleet, and there's certainly going to be others still guarding Solomon and Luna II, but Zeon probably has some forces left at Granada too. The Federation could recover from a loss at A Baoa Qu faster too, given their greater resources.

The novels have the colony laser usable again in short order after firing though, unlike the anime, where Gihren fires it early and burns the focusing lenses out. However the anime doesn't say how long it'd take to engineer or fit proper lenses, and Zeon only have maybe a few hours after Gihren fires before A Baoa Qu. At which point a win would be a lot harder ot engineer even with a fully operation colony laser. Still, the novels depict a situation where Zeon wiped out almost the entire Federation fleet using the colony laser at A Baoa Qu, and Zeon basically have the war in the bag until Char kills Gihren and Kycilia, removing the Zeon leadership and again, resulting in everyone being so tired the war is settled afterwards. The anime's original episode order called for something similar too, with the colony laser doing more damage and the Federation being on it's last legs as Zeon seemed assured of victory until Char helps the White Base kill Gihren to atone for helping Gihren take so much power.

Gaius Marius posted:

I wonder if something similar to frontals plan wouldn't have been the best way for zeon to win following loum. Just mass enough forces to take luna II and then camp out in orbit. Hopefully try and get some of the neutral colonies on side. I guess it'd come down to how long zeon can survive with little resources vs if the federation would take a settled peace instead of fully commiting to fighting a war in space.

The best way for Zeon to win was to never fight in the first place. Degwin notes in the third movie that Side 3 was the first Side the Federation recognized as autonomous after a successful rebellion years beforehand that both fought in with Deikun. Autonomy is not the same as true independence, but it's certainly a good step toward it and Side 3 had little enough oversight by the Federation that they could appoint their own leader based entirely on the word of the previous regime (Degwin taking Deikun's position), build up their own army with no attempt to limit them by the Federation and trade openly with groups like the Jupiter Energy Fleet. We also know from 0079 that the Federation is not only willing to allow other Sides to gain actual, true independence given the existence of Side 6 (which was later retconned to be a secret ally of the Federation), but that they were actually deferential to that Side, given the way Bright acted while at Side 6 and his fear of breaking any of their laws.

If Zeon wanted true independence then they could probably have gotten it inside another decade or two using politics and trade, rather than resorting to war at all. That's (a) rather slow though, and (b) didn't result in the kind of death that Gihren believed was necessary because of his own views on resources.

tsob fucked around with this message at 16:49 on Feb 27, 2021

Warmachine
Jan 30, 2012



Onmi posted:

Exactly. And keep in mind until the retcons added more and more, Operation Odessa was won by tanks and planes. The Gundam in the TV series is there to stop the nuke and otherwise not participate in an otherwise successful defeat of the Zeon forces holding Odessa. Zeon blitzed a lot of the earth using their control of space and then promptly fell into the meat grinder.

One thing I think is clear is Zeon is never, ever shown to have a path to victory. While the Federation made the Gundam and is constantly making progress, Zeon's progress is... trying to find Jaburo. Zeon takes no new territory in the show, they make no advances. They're losing power with each fight.

tsob posted:

If Zeon wanted true independence then they could probably have gotten it inside another decade or two using politics and trade, rather than resorting to war at all. That's (a) rather slow though, and (b) didn't result in the kind of death that Gihren believed was necessary because of his own views on resources.

Yeah, this comes back to the last hope for Zeon being to kill Revil at Loum and maintain their opsec enough that the Federation sues for peace at Antarctica because gently caress colony drops. Degwin trying to end things before A Baoa Qu would have been a white peace at best, and actively resulted in Zeon concessions at worst. Ironically this again comes down to Revil being alive and willing to hear Degwin out.

Does the novellization give any insight into Revil's thoughts and the contrast between Antarctica and the meeting prior to A Baoa Qu? I'd be interested to know what was going through his mind.

Ramadu
Aug 25, 2004

2015 NFL MVP


Stairmaster
Jun 8, 2012

Stfu gaijin

Ramadu
Aug 25, 2004

2015 NFL MVP


Stairmaster posted:

Stfu gaijin



THIS HAND OF MINE

NikkolasKing
Apr 3, 2010



There is certainly a siren song to G Gundam. It was the only Gundam I watched for a long time because a friend in high school pitched it to me by saying "It's DBZ with robots."

That was enough for teenager me.

Gaius Marius
Oct 9, 2012

I Liked G and Wing well enough back in the day, but I think I'm the only child who really liked the original airing of MSG. As goofy as it was that show got me hyped as hell.

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

Gaius Marius posted:

I Liked G and Wing well enough back in the day, but I think I'm the only child who really liked the original airing of MSG. As goofy as it was that show got me hyped as hell.

I really enjoyed it when Toonami aired it in 2001, even with the meh animation and awesome 70’s soundtrack.

Rabbi Tupac
Jan 1, 2010

Heroes of the Storm
Goon Tournament Champion
It was great and I was very bummed after it disappeared following 9/11.

Gaius Marius
Oct 9, 2012

They were just getting to the end. I think I remember seeing the texas duel. It was hosed up. At least all the ovas got full runs

Vord
Oct 27, 2007
How many of us didn't see the end of the series till we played the ps2 game Encounters in Space two years later?

gimme the GOD DAMN candy
Jul 1, 2007
the full msg dvd series was the first dvds i ever purchased. heck, it might have been my first online purchase, since i didn't have a computer until my 20's.

Gaius Marius
Oct 9, 2012

Vord posted:

How many of us didn't see the end of the series till we played the ps2 game Encounters in Space two years later?

I was terrible at eis as a kid, pretty sure either fed vs. Zeon or gundam vs. Zeta gundam was my first time seeing the end

free hubcaps
Oct 12, 2009

the op for G gundam gets me pumped as gently caress

FLYING IN THE SKY

Warmachine
Jan 30, 2012



Vord posted:

How many of us didn't see the end of the series till we played the ps2 game Encounters in Space two years later?

Hell, Journey to Jaburo was my primary vector for experiencing the first half of the series. After 20 years of streaming services, I have to conclude that "be monitoring a signal at a specific date and time" is a terrible way to distribute information.

But yeah, thanks for canceling the anti-war robot show because "now isn't the right time" right before we began The Forever War. I'm sure the motive was entirely "violence will scare the kids" and not "hey these kids are gonna vote someday and we don't want them thinking war is bad!"

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

Warmachine posted:

But yeah, thanks for canceling the anti-war robot show because "now isn't the right time" right before we began The Forever War. I'm sure the motive was entirely "violence will scare the kids" and not "hey these kids are gonna vote someday and we don't want them thinking war is bad!"

That was just the excuse. MSG’s ratings on Toonami were horrible and they’d been wanting to pull it for a while. It was very telling that it was just about the ratings when Midnight Run kept airing Cowboy Bebop episodes with terrorists mowing down a restaurant later that same week, 08th MS got moved to the peak 5 PM time slot a few weeks later, and 0080 hit the Midnight Run by October.

wdarkk
Oct 26, 2007

Friends: Protected
World: Saved
Crablettes: Eaten
Apparently people really didn't like the 1979 art.

Should have got Turn-A instead.

Ramadu
Aug 25, 2004

2015 NFL MVP


wdarkk posted:

Apparently people really didn't like the 1979 art.

Should have got Turn-A instead.

I sincerely believe that if they redid the animation 0079 would be a huge hit nowadays

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dogsicle
Oct 23, 2012

people are weak and should not receive such concessions

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