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Arivia
Mar 17, 2011

gradenko_2000 posted:

It has happened before.

There was an influenza pandemic in 1957-1958 that killed something like 1 to 4 million people worldwide
There was another pandemic in 1968-1969 that killed another 1 to 4 million people worldwide
There was an outbreak in Russia in 1977-1979 that killed about 700k people
H5N1 has had multiple outbreaks from 2006 to 2008
H1N1 was in 2009
MERS was first identified in 2012 and has had small outbreaks ever since, with the last big one in 2018

There was also an outbreak of avian flu in 2015 that killed tens of millions of birds, another one in 2020, and African Swine Fever has been ravaging pig populations for decades, with a huge outbreak in 2018-2019

We've been rolling the dice against influenza / coronaviruses forever, and eventually something was going to come up SNAKE EYES

Yeah, one of the lovely "what the gently caress were you thinking" starts to all this for Canada was that we had a pretty recent pandemic emergency that public health was able to build up institutional knowledge about (SARS in 2003) and uh when they went to go dust off everything that was supposed to be in storage (ventilators, etc) it had just been left to rot along with all the planning, legislation, etc

We straight up knew what to do for another one, laid in a strategic stockpile, made plans, and then just stopped caring about it so it was useless when we needed it again

Arivia fucked around with this message at 14:27 on Dec 15, 2021

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Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

I'm pretty sure by the time this is over, COVID will have wildly outperformed a mere single digit percentage.

I know how huge the death toll was for the 1918 flu, but like did any country collapse from it? Were any of the fascist power grabs of the interwar period predicated upon the turmoil and instability the plague, rather than the war, caused?

I'm aware of how bad the 1918 Flu was in raw numbers, I'm just not sure it's going to compare unfavorably to COVID before long.

There's some pretty interesting arguments that flu tipped the balance in WW1, so you can plausibly argue the whole current world order is predicated on its devastating impact...

I really don't expect COVID to"wildly outperform a single digit percentage", I guess that would be somewhere between 1-2bn deaths, which is just extremely fanciful even in the most unmitigated scenarios.

There's lots of good books about the flu

DNK
Sep 18, 2004

Steve Yun posted:

Baby it’s COVID outside

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

Paradoxish posted:

everything is actually fine

skipmyseashells
Nov 14, 2020

zone posted:

in a nutshell, covid isn't the first disease to jump from animals to human beings, and certainly won't be the last. HIV, for instance, started off life as a disease of monkeys.

and just like covid it was mutated by the American government

Hatebag
Jun 17, 2008


RoboChrist 9000 posted:

Actually, just thought something.
If zoonotic reservoirs - rodent or otherwise = were a major or even substantial source of spread for Omicron, wouldn't we expect China and Japan to, despite their current efforts, not have COVID under control? Their policies are currently, for obvious reasons, based on modifying and observing human behaviors and health, not pest control. I mean I'm sure they probably have pest control plans anyway, but you know what I mean.
If rats were spreading COVID in a meaningful way, wouldn't China see more cases as their lockdowns and quarantines are obviously not something rats understand or respect.

Maybe they aren't hugging and kissing wild rats. There's not much covid in china at least. how much direct interaction do people have with rats? Rats avoid people, they practice social distancing. So if there's not a lot of human covid there's probably not much rat covid. If a few of em got it though they'd probably spread it real quick but I'm not sure that would matter because they have tiny little lungs right next to the ground. Doubt they would spread covid too much. May generate new fun variants though

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord

Arivia posted:

Yeah, one of the lovely "what the gently caress were you thinking" starts to all this for Canada was that we had a pretty recent pandemic emergency that public health was able to build up institutional knowledge about (SARS in 2003?) and uh when they went to go dust off everything that was supposed to be in storage (ventilators, etc) it had just been left to rot along with all the planning, legislation, etc

We straight up knew what to do for another one, laid in a strategic stockpile, made plans, and then just stopped caring about it so it was useless when we needed it again

That's neoliberal capitalism ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Bruce Hussein Daddy
Dec 26, 2005

I testify that there is none worthy of worship except God and I testify that Muhammad is the Messenger of God

platzapS posted:

Did they ever figure out how it sort of kicked around independently all that time? was the "it was all one guy" idea wrong?
Was it just an undermonitored part of the world?

Wikipedia hints toward HIV community, rather than a single individual:

quote:

A link with HIV infection may explain the large number of mutations in the sequence of the Omicron variant.[25][citation needed] Indeed, in order to be affected by such a high number of mutations, the virus must have been able to evolve a long time without killing its host, nor being eliminated. One such situation occurs in people with a weakened immune system but receiving enough medical care to survive.[26] This is the case in HIV patients in South Africa, who represent more than 20% of the population.[27] Due to lack of access to clinics, fear of stigmatisation and disrupted healthcare, millions living with HIV in the region are not on effective HIV therapy. HIV prevention could be key to reducing the risk that uncontrolled HIV is driving the emergence of Covid variants.[28]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Zodium posted:

skimming that study uglycat posted way too early in the morning on my phone, another thought occurs: why, instead of reacting to the threat, does capital bizarrely spring into action to contain any response? besides the optimal consumer argument, maybe because if material conditions physically exist, then organisms can evolve to perceive them. a virus could become endemic to capitalism specifically if the collective behaviors necessary to defeat it would destabilize capitalism, while leaving others much less affected. selection against capitalism. and why not? why should our economies stand above evolution?

capital can use this virus to kill unproductive labor thats bumming out number. also it can profit from mutating the virus to the point where vaccines are mandatory for life

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

lol drat you really gotta respect the commitment to the lie. like is anyone ever gonna notice that the hospitals are all clogged with suffocating unconscious people and surrounded by jam packed morgue trailers? are chuds just gonna keep memory holing their increasingly dead friends and family who are less numerous by the day? probably, it’ll probably work.

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Rutibex posted:

capital can use this virus to kill unproductive labor thats bumming out number. also it can profit from mutating the virus to the point where vaccines are mandatory for life

eh, I think you're giving capital too much credit here

the response from the rich is exactly what you'd expect if you assumed they'd just take the course of action with the highest short-term rewards that put them at the least risk

COVID isn't a threat to them and telling people to get back to work keeps the system running for another day

NeonPunk
Dec 21, 2020

mystes posted:

It might genuinely make it less deadly because people won't have as much trouble breathing although people who have their other organs destroyed will presumably still be hosed anyway

It would kind of suck in its own way if it's seriously less deadly but spreads much faster and has the same rate if long term complications and nobody cares about stopping it.

Nah, it'll still kill people just fine. It only will take longer.

Instead of dying in days because you can't breathe, you die in weeks instead because you can't swallow anymore

CODChimera
Jan 29, 2009


you'd think that almost all of the US being red would be the point of interest/concern

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa

Failed Imagineer posted:

There's some pretty interesting arguments that flu tipped the balance in WW1, so you can plausibly argue the whole current world order is predicated on its devastating impact...

I really don't expect COVID to"wildly outperform a single digit percentage", I guess that would be somewhere between 1-2bn deaths, which is just extremely fanciful even in the most unmitigated scenarios.

There's lots of good books about the flu

At the rate we're going and assuming that the only thing that changes is the virus gets more deadly and places like America get more fascist and opposed to any sort of mitigation, what makes at least a billion deaths within the next few years unlikely?
I'm not being sarcastic, I'm sincerely asking. Because it seems to me is that the only two things changing are the virus gets stronger, and we are deliberately making ourselves - except China - weaker. Not to mention that obviously even if the virus wasn't getting stronger and even if our mitigation strategies stayed no worse than they are now, things would still get worse because
1. We already have uncontrolled growth, rather than a flat rate of spread.
2. Each wave can find new victims to kill as those who escaped a previous wave with 'only' crippling damage will not be easily ganked.

Like I don't see any way COVID doesn't easily do a billion unless we assume that we do eventually reach a point where even capital is spooked and the West starts enacting and enforcing meaningful NPIs. Until if and when that happens, things can and will only get worse and worse.

Like hell, I honestly would not be surprised if President Trump or DeSantis declare that natural immunity is best and try and mandate people get infected.

Mr. Pizza
Oct 5, 2009


WorldsStongestNerd posted:

Dehumanize yourself and face to bloodshed.

Crazyweasel
Oct 29, 2006
lazy

Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:


an ex vivo study appears showing something unusual about omicron's shift compared to past strains:
https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1471088942543949829


I didn’t want this to get lost because it does seem pretty interesting. Tough to be optimistic given that easier spread just means the total number of people who are going to get hosed up will be higher, but if it signifies the virus moving up the respiratory tract, I’m hoping that’s a good thing in the long run :shrug:


oh yea forgot about long COVID oops

skipmyseashells
Nov 14, 2020

Stereotype posted:

lol drat you really gotta respect the commitment to the lie. like is anyone ever gonna notice that the hospitals are all clogged with suffocating unconscious people and surrounded by jam packed morgue trailers? are chuds just gonna keep memory holing their increasingly dead friends and family who are less numerous by the day? probably, it’ll probably work.

Vice President desantis will do the same thing when hyper covid appears too

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Crazyweasel posted:

I didn’t want this to get lost because it does seem pretty interesting. Tough to be optimistic given that easier spread just means the total number of people who are going to get hosed up will be higher, but if it signifies the virus moving up the respiratory tract, I’m hoping that’s a good thing in the long run :shrug:


oh yea forgot about long COVID oops

Doesn't that chart show a decline with Delta, too? And Delta was associated with generally equivalent or higher severity.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

At the rate we're going and assuming that the only thing that changes is the virus gets more deadly and places like America get more fascist and opposed to any sort of mitigation, what makes at least a billion deaths within the next few years unlikely?
I'm not being sarcastic, I'm sincerely asking. Because it seems to me is that the only two things changing are the virus gets stronger, and we are deliberately making ourselves - except China - weaker. Not to mention that obviously even if the virus wasn't getting stronger and even if our mitigation strategies stayed no worse than they are now, things would still get worse because
1. We already have uncontrolled growth, rather than a flat rate of spread.
2. Each wave can find new victims to kill as those who escaped a previous wave with 'only' crippling damage will not be easily ganked.

Like I don't see any way COVID doesn't easily do a billion unless we assume that we do eventually reach a point where even capital is spooked and the West starts enacting and enforcing meaningful NPIs. Until if and when that happens, things can and will only get worse and worse.

Like hell, I honestly would not be surprised if President Trump or DeSantis declare that natural immunity is best and try and mandate people get infected.

COVID could kill every man woman and child in the US, BRA, RUS, and UK and we'd still only be halfway to a billion people. There's nothing to suggest that will happen. Most of the world is not actually opposed to NPIs, and a lot of the world has a fairly young demographic who are generally not going to die even from multiple COVID exposures.

Sure, COVID could surpass the flu and become the Black Death, a lot of things are possible. Tbh I think it's more likely that a new flu emerges with those properties, flu has always been the one which is waiting to completely wreck our poo poo

slave to my cravings
Mar 1, 2007

Got my mind on doritos and doritos on my mind.
Biden is gonna stop paying for vaccines in mid 2022 cause they don’t work

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

thehandtruck posted:

wang commander, gondor calls for aid

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa

Failed Imagineer posted:

COVID could kill every man woman and child in the US, BRA, RUS, and UK and we'd still only be halfway to a billion people. There's nothing to suggest that will happen. Most of the world is not actually opposed to NPIs, and a lot of the world has a fairly young demographic who are generally not going to die even from multiple COVID exposures.

Sure, COVID could surpass the flu and become the Black Death, a lot of things are possible. Tbh I think it's more likely that a new flu emerges with those properties, flu has always been the one which is waiting to completely wreck our poo poo

I suppose. But I mean I notice you leave out India there, which yeah. They have a huge population and what, 5 million dead from their worst Delta wave?
The AIDS pandemic has killed ~36 million in over 30 years. COVID19 has killed ~20 million in under 2.

Pajser
Jan 28, 2006
i like how no one trusts China yet everyone trusts Florida

Business Gorillas
Mar 11, 2009

:harambe:



Stereotype posted:

lol drat you really gotta respect the commitment to the lie. like is anyone ever gonna notice that the hospitals are all clogged with suffocating unconscious people and surrounded by jam packed morgue trailers? are chuds just gonna keep memory holing their increasingly dead friends and family who are less numerous by the day? probably, it’ll probably work.

if your choice is Dig Deeper or Get Owned, you always Dig Deeper

consider rationalizing chud behavior by the posters' mindset. we all post down here

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

I suppose. But I mean I notice you leave out India there, which yeah. They have a huge population and what, 5 million dead from their worst Delta wave?
The AIDS pandemic has killed ~36 million in over 30 years. COVID19 has killed ~20 million in under 2.

Fair point, not a deliberate omission or anything. India has zero healthcare infrastructure, or real commitment to accurately recording deaths, but the one thing it can do right is impose draconian NPIs. Like, if you leave your flat when you're not supposed to some dudes will beat your rear end with a rattan cane. This is basically what I hear from my Indian coworkers at least.

And yeah, COVID is a lot worse than AIDS

Stevie Lee
Oct 8, 2007

everyone who has ever liked a Chen Weihua tweet will be jailed within the next decade

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

At the rate we're going and assuming that the only thing that changes is the virus gets more deadly and places like America get more fascist and opposed to any sort of mitigation, what makes at least a billion deaths within the next few years unlikely?
I'm not being sarcastic, I'm sincerely asking. Because it seems to me is that the only two things changing are the virus gets stronger, and we are deliberately making ourselves - except China - weaker. Not to mention that obviously even if the virus wasn't getting stronger and even if our mitigation strategies stayed no worse than they are now, things would still get worse because
1. We already have uncontrolled growth, rather than a flat rate of spread.
2. Each wave can find new victims to kill as those who escaped a previous wave with 'only' crippling damage will not be easily ganked.

Like I don't see any way COVID doesn't easily do a billion unless we assume that we do eventually reach a point where even capital is spooked and the West starts enacting and enforcing meaningful NPIs. Until if and when that happens, things can and will only get worse and worse.

Like hell, I honestly would not be surprised if President Trump or DeSantis declare that natural immunity is best and try and mandate people get infected.

the solution to covid that america is going to come up with is fascism. the logic of capital can't deal with the virus, but fascism can. fascism can come up with all sorts of great reasons to have quarantines and closed borders and support programs (for whites only)

Mr. Pizza
Oct 5, 2009


Palladium
May 8, 2012

Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

Stevie Lee posted:

everyone who has ever liked a Chen Weihua tweet will be jailed within the next decade

well what exactly blinken's delegation is afraid of, covid is mild

Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord

slave to my cravings posted:

Biden is gonna stop paying for vaccines in mid 2022 cause they don’t work

I think it depends on what happens with this first surge of omicron cases. Right now the data says that being fresh off a booster gives you some protection, so they're going to go with forcing a boost rather than anything else because it already fits with the preferred strategy of vaccination alone.

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

Bathtub Cheese posted:

Oh please, there are authorities enforcing rules permeating every aspect of capitalism and the threat of repression plays a key role in holding the whole thing together. Same with calculated propaganda, much of which does come out of academic and quasi-academic settings like think tanks. There's a strong disincentive to question the bullshit and an even stronger one to tell the powerful what they want to hear. The prevalence of lack of insight into how the game is played gets overstated to obfuscate this. In fact, though, all-pervading cynicism is another way the system maintains itself.

Someone like Monica Ghandi is inexplicable as a simple product of a self-regulating complex system. She is a blatant scam artist and serial liar who only sees the money and clout she's getting by spewing nonsense. Only an ivory tower lib thinks the system that benefits her plays out entirely unguided by intentional actors (on the other hand, it's the same with downplaying capitalism's systematic character in favor of agency, go figure).

Systems thinking and what some might call "conspiracist" views on human intent are compatible IMO - humans have always reflected on their experiences, solved problems, and adapted to their environment. They can observe what works toward their own interests and what doesn't within a given system and exploit their position, resources, and knowledge, even if they clearly aren't reverse engineering capitalism with fancy leftist theories from smoke-filled rooms or something. The fuckery around regulatory obligations with an airborne virus like COVID is a clear example of this. Public health authorities advertising COVID as an airborne virus creates huge legal and regulatory burdens on governments and businesses (like what happened with the rulemaking process with OSHA and CDC's masks-off debacle back in May), and the CDC, WHO, and everyone else at the state and local levels denying it as long as they did only dug that hole deeper. The incentives furnished by capitalism as a system explains the "why" and intent explains the "how".

Sidenote: being a radical-seeming "critical voice" that ultimately maintains capitalism is fully possible within academia -- and, more importantly, you can still get paid very well. That's Noam Chomksy's entire career outside his actual field, linguistics. Radicals can also be excommunicated from academia entirely for having certain unpopular views and being especially outspoken about them: Steve Salaita was a good example. He's now a bus driver with a PhD.

trapped in ivory tower, send help

text editor
Jan 8, 2007

ever hear of that thing they do to pageant kids where they smear vaseline on their teeth to force the smiling muscle memory for stage and cameras? I think she's doing that

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

Pajser posted:

i like how no one trusts China yet everyone trusts Florida

well believe it or not but everyone is both super racist and also obsequiously servile to capitalism

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa

Rutibex posted:

the solution to covid that america is going to come up with is fascism. the logic of capital can't deal with the virus, but fascism can. fascism can come up with all sorts of great reasons to have quarantines and closed borders and support programs (for whites only)

I mean we're going to go full fash in 2024, but the fascists wont care to solve the problem because they're all true believers. Trump and/or DeSantis are not going to use the jackboot of fascism to quash the plague. If anything they will collaborate with the plague harder than we already are.
Travel bans and closed borders wlil probably be a thing, and hospitalization/healthcare for whites, but there is no way that meaningful NPIs are enacted or enforced.

slave to my cravings
Mar 1, 2007

Got my mind on doritos and doritos on my mind.

Nothus posted:

I think it depends on what happens with this first surge of omicron cases. Right now the data says that being fresh off a booster gives you some protection, so they're going to go with forcing a boost rather than anything else because it already fits with the preferred strategy of vaccination alone.

they aren’t even going to enforce their fully vaccinated mandate to any meaningful degree. no way more than 30% of the eligible population gets a third shot

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

Serf posted:

tangentially covid-related i got written up at work today because during the graduation ceremony i happened to be standing near the american flag during the national anthem and i didn't put my hand over my heart. so on the big screens all you saw was a weirdo with an elastomeric mask standing next to the flag, hands in pockets during the maximum patriotism moment. i was told that i was "disruptive" and that my mask "sent the wrong message" to students and parents lmao
GodCovidspeed

HiroProtagonist
May 7, 2007

Clocks posted:

https://twitter.com/KindAndUnblind/status/1470389931679883268

someone made a thread on monica gandhi and how much she sucks

Still catching up on thread but Lol at this in the replies

https://twitter.com/RyanMarino/status/1470801211095982083?t=pYBFMdK7HpPLdEtHFJr_Dw&s=19

Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord

Stereotype posted:

are chuds just gonna keep memory holing their increasingly dead friends and family who are less numerous by the day? probably, it’ll probably work.

Not just chuds. The ones dying are always going to be the group you hate and your friends and family that die are always outliers who had bad luck.

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Kylaer
Aug 4, 2007
I'm SURE walking around in a respirator at all times in an (even more) OPEN BIDENing society is definitely not a recipe for disaster and anyone that's not cool with getting harassed by CHUDs are cave dwellers. I've got good brain!

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

So out of curiosity; why is this happening? Like I don't mean in a moral/spiritual sense, or why the world leaders are behaving as they are. I mean, like, why is COVID-19 doing what it's doing?
Wet markets are not a new thing. Bats are not a new thing. Bats living in areas with humans are not a new thing. And I mean look at the common cold coronaviruses and other coronaviruses, none of which are new.

I get how the vaccination and whatnot are applying selection pressures, because evolution is one of the few parts of biology I do have a pretty good grasp on, but like yeah. My question is basically why is this just happening now? Why didn't COVID-1999 happen? Or COVID 2009? Like it seems to me all you needed for this to happen were a vector for bat to human zoonotic transfer, modern air travel to facilitate rapid spread, and capitalism to facilitate a complete lack of NPIs that would quickly and easily defeat the virus. All of these things have been around for literally decades.

Because covid was the result of gain-of-function research performed in Wuhan at the direction of Peter Daszak's EcoHealth Alliance, funded by the U.S. NIH. The pandemic started because of a lab leak. Both governments know this and neither will ever acknowledge it.

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