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stirlo
Aug 12, 2007

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Yesterday NSW Australia logged in 3,763 new cases which broke all the records (before omicron I think the highest daily case number in any Aust state was 2,264 down in Vic, NSW has been setting a new record almost every day this week) and freaked everyone out a bit. Today they reported 5,715 new cases and everyone is :stare:


Melbourne needs to do something; mum texted us saying she’s been exposed and going for a test now ‘ Xmas cancelled for her ; i think it would be idiocy to do Biz As Usual, we’re setting up for a shocking few months if we do..

Sydney needs a lockdown IMO right now.

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DLC Inc
Jun 1, 2011

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

Dr Crackl Ping retweeted the “1 vaccine for all Covid” news and it’s apparently confirmed to be in trials, looking good

Edit: adding link to tweet

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1473462641507119108?s=20

well now that this dumbfuck tweeted about it my enthusiasm has dampened slightly lol.


coelomate posted:

A huge percentage of cases are asymptomatic or only present like a cold though; most deniers could get exposed and infected without it rocking their belief system.

it's absolutely this. Also a good number of people could have had it in the first few months of 2020/late months of 2019 and mistook it for a flu. Many people will either get a mild cold or some other poo poo and might never realize they even had it. Reminds me of when I absolutely had a godawful flu for a few days in February last year but my flu test came back negative at the doctor, who knows if that was Covid or not.

mom and dad fight a lot
Sep 21, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 19 days!

Redgrendel2001 posted:

I can't afford to not go back tomorrow. Still have 8 months on my lease. Strongly considering an email containing multiple uses of the words"negligence" and "liability".

edit: I'm going to move my cubicle to an empty section of the building and isolate myself.

Is there an HR department that you can reach out to? Like a phone number or something? Or a union? It's lovely that you have to deal with this on your own.

Blitter
Mar 16, 2011

Intellectual
AI Enthusiast

Raskolnikov2089 posted:

I also did some quick calculations and saw that in just 45 doublings, 40 trillion people will be infected.

Seems plausible!!

https://mobile.twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1473690258965475334
(Sound on for ominous music)

They updated their model, which historically has pretty much useless due to underestimation.

Here's the US case forecast (including uncertainty)

Tunicate
May 15, 2012





But how do they know it'll work on EVERY variant?

Tunicate fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Dec 23, 2021

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
3 billion mild infections

Redgrendel2001
Sep 1, 2006

you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.

Kirk Vikernes posted:

If you're in the states, their reply will probably contain multiple uses of "lol" and "pack your poo poo".

And my reply will be the litany of CAP/CLIA violations that they've hidden over the past 2 years.

Redgrendel2001
Sep 1, 2006

you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.

mom and dad fight a lot posted:

Is there an HR department that you can reach out to? Like a phone number or something? Or a union? It's lovely that you have to deal with this on your own.

Lol.

HR is designed to protect them from liability. The
second anyone suggests that you should go through HR is the moment you should be calling anyone you know who is a lawyer.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Tunicate posted:





But how do they know it'll work on EVERY variant?



Apropos of nothing, it must really irritate Adidas that they can't somehow make money off people calling vaguely-spherical polygons "soccer ball shaped" because they actually mean "Adidas Telstar shaped". Hell if they'd released it in the 21st century they'd probably be suing makers of geodesic domes and apparently vaccines now for infringing their copyright.

Barudak
May 7, 2007

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Apropos of nothing, it must really irritate Adidas that they can't somehow make money off people calling vaguely-spherical polygons "soccer ball shaped" because they actually mean "Adidas Telstar shaped". Hell if they'd released it in the 21st century they'd probably be suing makers of geodesic domes and apparently vaccines now for infringing their copyright.

Adidas goes hard after people who use any of the post 2006 designs for their balls, so yes.

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1473787869957267457?s=20

Good news, it’s like a hurricane

Unfortunately, you’re all in the way :shrug:

vandalism
Aug 4, 2003
What is the survival rate of omicron?

Wendigee
Jul 19, 2004

five nines reliability!

/tech nerd making poo poo up about product up time

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

vandalism posted:

What is the survival rate of omicron?
People are still arguing about it.

Some studies are noting differences in the risk of hospitalization, but roughly equal outcomes amongst the hospitalized. Meaning that O might not be as likely to land you in the hospital as D, but if it does, then the outcomes are similar.

But we still don't know and I really don't like this talk about "mild" because it seems to be leading people to throw caution to the wind. After all, it's NBD!!

Doctor Butts
May 21, 2002

Wendigee posted:

five nines reliability!

/tech nerd making poo poo up about product up time

Nothing was reliable on the day of the 5/9 hacks.

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

Zugzwang posted:

People are still arguing about it.

Some studies are noting differences in the risk of hospitalization, but roughly equal outcomes amongst the hospitalized. Meaning that O might not be as likely to land you in the hospital as D, but if it does, then the outcomes are similar.

But we still don't know and I really don't like this talk about "mild" because it seems to be leading people to throw caution to the wind. After all, it's NBD!!

NB even if Omicron is 50% less likely to hospitalize you, it's still much more infectious. It's going to crush ICU capacity in hospitals and when that happens the CFR goes up considerably.

Wendigee
Jul 19, 2004

get vaccinated and wear a mask and let it burn out? not much else we can do. since it doesn't seem to be a new ebola I'm hoping people that took precautions will mostly be fine.

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k

Zugzwang posted:

People are still arguing about it.

Some studies are noting differences in the risk of hospitalization, but roughly equal outcomes amongst the hospitalized. Meaning that O might not be as likely to land you in the hospital as D, but if it does, then the outcomes are similar.

But we still don't know and I really don't like this talk about "mild" because it seems to be leading people to throw caution to the wind. After all, it's NBD!!

Fuk u I'm watching spiderman and matrix and hell, even kingsman 3 I'm free u can't imprison me

mom and dad fight a lot
Sep 21, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 19 days!

Redgrendel2001 posted:

Lol.

HR is designed to protect them from liability. The
second anyone suggests that you should go through HR is the moment you should be calling anyone you know who is a lawyer.

Edit: n/m, just realized you were the same guy. That sucks. :(

mom and dad fight a lot fucked around with this message at 03:26 on Dec 23, 2021

Agents are GO!
Dec 29, 2004

Scarodactyl posted:

It seems amazingly good, except they just can't make enough soon enough. It will make a difference but just isn't enough.

Soon enough for what?

Scarodactyl
Oct 22, 2015


Agents are GO! posted:

Soon enough for what?
Soon enough to make a difference during this current wave.

Captain von Trapp
Jan 23, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.

vandalism posted:

What is the survival rate of omicron?

It'll depend very heavily on your age and comorbidities, if any, and there are huge error bars because so much is simply not known.

That said, if it's similar to the other COVID strains, you can make some plausible guesses. Honestly for the average member of this forum (30s?) your chance of death is probably a one-in-a-thousand or less, even unvaccinated. Vaccinated, add a zero.

Now that risk is nothing to sneeze at. It's easily the most dangerous thing you'd likely experience this year. But it's not likely to kill you, and is probably very roughly comparable to your cumulative annual car crash death risk.

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

Captain von Trapp posted:

It'll depend very heavily on your age and comorbidities, if any, and there are huge error bars because so much is simply not known.

That said, if it's similar to the other COVID strains, you can make some plausible guesses. Honestly for the average member of this forum (30s?) your chance of death is probably a one-in-a-thousand or less, even unvaccinated. Vaccinated, add a zero.

Now that risk is nothing to sneeze at. It's easily the most dangerous thing you'd likely experience this year. But it's not likely to kill you, and is probably very roughly comparable to your cumulative annual car crash death risk.

forums users are more likely to die of heart attack or aneurysm from sitting too longgggghjdfsahhhggh asaghgrhklklll

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

Captain von Trapp posted:

It'll depend very heavily on your age and comorbidities, if any, and there are huge error bars because so much is simply not known.

That said, if it's similar to the other COVID strains, you can make some plausible guesses. Honestly for the average member of this forum (30s?) your chance of death is probably a one-in-a-thousand or less, even unvaccinated. Vaccinated, add a zero.

Now that risk is nothing to sneeze at. It's easily the most dangerous thing you'd likely experience this year. But it's not likely to kill you, and is probably very roughly comparable to your cumulative annual car crash death risk.

Counterpoint - goons have never been paragons of good health.

withak
Jan 15, 2003


Fun Shoe
Posting on a dead gay comedy forum is a comorbidity.

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
Regular reminder that the risk of outright death might be low, but the risk of long covid/experiencing an exceptionally unpleasant illness is considerably higher. Also, the worst possible time to get sick is when everyone else is getting sick because hoo boy does the CFR go up when hospitals are overwhelmed.

mom and dad fight a lot
Sep 21, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 19 days!

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

forums users are more likely to die of heart attack or aneurysm from sitting too longgggghjdfsahhhggh asaghgrhklklll

Not actually that far off. Out of the 3.35M deaths in the US in 2020, heart disease was the most common leading cause of death, with cancer just behind it. COVID-19 was the third :v:

mom and dad fight a lot fucked around with this message at 04:29 on Dec 23, 2021

Beachcomber
May 21, 2007

Another day in paradise.


Slippery Tilde

What a shy guy.

vandalism
Aug 4, 2003
i sit all day every day bitches :smug: you will have to contend with this bullshit clown world while i am safely dead from a combination stroke/aneurysm/heart attack/covid:smug: :smug:

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

prom candy
Dec 16, 2005

Only I may dance
^^ lol

Zugzwang posted:

Regular reminder that the risk of outright death might be low, but the risk of long covid/experiencing an exceptionally unpleasant illness is considerably higher. Also, the worst possible time to get sick is when everyone else is getting sick because hoo boy does the CFR go up when hospitals are overwhelmed.

The risk of long covid seems really poorly understood at this point, especially for vaccinated people. The definition of long covid is also really nebulous. I've seen people throw out really high statistics for long covid, like 20-30%, but then the definition in the study they're citing is that you have at least one symptom for 5 weeks after infection. That's not what I think of when I think of long covid. I'm not saying it's not real and not a consideration but I'm really not sure how common it is among vaccinated people, especially the really scary "my brain stopped working good" kind.

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


prom candy posted:

^^ lol

The risk of long covid seems really poorly understood at this point, especially for vaccinated people. The definition of long covid is also really nebulous. I've seen people throw out really high statistics for long covid, like 20-30%, but then the definition in the study they're citing is that you have at least one symptom for 5 weeks after infection. That's not what I think of when I think of long covid. I'm not saying it's not real and not a consideration but I'm really not sure how common it is among vaccinated people, especially the really scary "my brain stopped working good" kind.

The last time I went down a long covid rabbit hole, I think I saw a study that found like 60% of participants who joined because they had it were tested and had never been exposed to COVID in the first place. I don’t doubt that the virus can have serious long term consequences, but I think the probability is waaaaay lower than some of the breathless media reporting can make it seem.

Pinecone Sample
Oct 12, 2010

THIS ACCOUNT HAS BEEN SEIZED
by the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation in accordance with a seizure warrant issued pursuant to 69 U.S.C Sec. 420
Has anyone researched how many people with chronic lyme have also developed long covid, it seems like a lot

Agents are GO!
Dec 29, 2004

coelomate posted:

The last time I went down a long covid rabbit hole, I think I saw a study that found like 60% of participants who joined because they had it were tested and had never been exposed to COVID in the first place. I don’t doubt that the virus can have serious long term consequences, but I think the probability is waaaaay lower than some of the breathless media reporting can make it seem.

I thought I had long covid but it turned out it was actually on its side and that I had wide covid.

Wendigee
Jul 19, 2004

Pinecone Sample posted:

Has anyone researched how many people with chronic lyme have also developed long covid, it seems like a lot


they are wrking on an mRNA vaccine for lyme and it seems to be working so far... further trials coming...


so mRNA might be effective at
Flu
Covid
SARS
Lyme
Cancer


My fingers are so crossed you can't undo the knot mother fuckers

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

Wendigee posted:

they are wrking on an mRNA vaccine for lyme and it seems to be working so far... further trials coming...


so mRNA might be effective at
Flu
Covid
SARS
Lyme
Cancer


My fingers are so crossed you can't undo the knot mother fuckers

Moderna's got an HIV mRNA vaccine in human trials.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

mom and dad fight a lot posted:

Not actually that far off. Out of the 3.35M deaths in the US in 2020, heart disease was the most common leading cause of death, with cancer just behind it. COVID-19 was the third :v:

Because the number of covid deaths fluctuated so much it was actually the leading cause of death for some months: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254560/leading-causes-of-death-in-the-us-average-number-daily/

Smeef
Aug 15, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!



Pillbug

Agents are GO! posted:

I thought I had long covid but it turned out it was actually on its side and that I had wide covid.

I thought wide COVID is what you get when you have a certain comorbidity that is very common in the US.

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QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

DickParasite posted:

NB even if Omicron is 50% less likely to hospitalize you, it's still much more infectious. It's going to crush ICU capacity in hospitals and when that happens the CFR goes up considerably.

Yeah epidemiologists will often say that between a reduction in transmissability vs a reduction in severity, they'll take transmissibility every time. Something that spreads to 10x more people overall but hospitalizes at half the rate is still sending 5x as many people to the hospital as before. Omicron is insanely more transmissible, so hospitalizing at a lower rate is good but should not be taken as a sign that everything is fine.

e: And this is a another reminder that death is not the only consequence to care about. Hospitalization is loving awful even if you don't wind up becoming an amputee or transplant recipient. Plus, 20% of hospitalized delta recoveries wound up with long-term symptoms that were described as "debilitating", not just the low-key annoying poo poo like loss of smell.

QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 06:26 on Dec 23, 2021

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