Tulip posted:

the gently caress happened here

Pingui posted:

Shot:

Chaser:

quote:

All 54 passengers, 36 of whom were diagnosed with Covid after arriving from Fiji last Friday, have now been quarantined and are recovering well, according to authorities.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-boris-johnson-health-europe-spain-1ab95ea43fa30bcb36f068c9a8664d12 posted:

Europe considers new COVID-19 strategy: Accepting the virus
(..)
The public also needs to come to terms with the idea that some deaths from COVID-19 ”will be inevitable,” Tranche said.
(..)

Zurtilik posted:

"Some deaths" have already happened you fucks!

Bruce Hussein Daddy posted:

Iron Crowned posted:

Gotta love it.

HR just sent out an email titled "CDC COVID-19 Quarantine and Isolation Guidelines"

It's a 7MB/ page .PDF file that was clearly just printed to PDF directly from, I assume some sort of screenshot of the CDC website.

You have columns split between pages, and at one point one like has the upper half of letters on one page and the lower half on the top of the next page.

The last six months this is basically COVID policy at work, half-assed abdication to whatever the CDC says, because actually looking into it is hard.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3164131/coronavirus-omicron-variant-less-severe-its-not-natures-vaccine posted:

Coronavirus: the Omicron variant is less severe but it’s not ‘nature’s vaccine’

• Scientists say the highly infectious strain, seen as ‘mild’, should not be underestimated
  
• They warn there will be more variants to come as it spreads, replicates and mutates
  

Tulip posted:

the gently caress happened here

Bullfrog posted:

lol here we go, this thread is prolonging the pandemic by not going to applebees!

https://twitter.com/truthshamesthe6/status/1484274537005002752

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Israel's booster program ran August to October last year and then pretty much stopped, a lot of their boosters are 4+ months old now. They kicked off 4th boosters about 3 weeks ago but a lot of those won't have re-maxxed their titers yet


https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...ca~Asia~CHN~RUS

Australia is about to overtake the US but they're currently both under 25% boosted which is a baaaaad place to be when you're daring omicron to punch you in the face

India and Africa are in all sorts of trouble

etalian posted:

We also know for Omicron VE against infection seems to only last around 2 months, when for previous strains it was 4 to 5 months.

Most of the hilarious breakthrough stories for US politicians like AOC had a little info blurb how they had the 3rd shot in August or October.

mystes posted:

How many more variants is it going to take before people shut up about herd immunity?

Pingui posted:

Victory wine etc.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/most-likely-catch-covid-new-study posted:

Here’s where (and how) you are most likely to catch COVID-19 as per a new study
(..)

(..)

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-designates-omicron-sub-lineage-variant-under-investigation-2022-01-21/ posted:

UK designates Omicron sub-lineage a variant under investigation

LONDON, Jan 21 (Reuters) - The UK Health Security Agency on Friday said it had designated a sub-lineage of the dominant and highly transmissible Omicron coronavirus variant as a variant under investigation.

BA.2, which does not have the specific mutation seen with Omicron that can be used as a proxy to easily distinguish it from Delta, is being investigated but has not been designated a Variant Of Concern.

"It is the nature of viruses to evolve and mutate, so it's to be expected that we will continue to see new variants emerge," Dr Meera Chand, incident director at the UKHSA, said.

"Our continued genomic surveillance allows us to detect them and assess whether they are significant."

Iron Crowned posted:

Aleph-One

Pingui posted:

Pingui posted:

Victory wine etc.

Iron Crowned posted:

Aleph-One

Goa Tse-tung posted:

"LF? What's that mean?"

Bruce Hussein Daddy posted:

Education Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton said it was “a brave decision,” adding that “it would have been easier to close the education system, but our duty is to save every boy and girl” from the damage of repeated quarantines.

Pingui posted:

A completely unsurprising graph for anyone itt, but might be interesting nonetheless:

quote:

But it is important to distinguish between what models can and cannot predict. All models’ assumptions fail to describe the details of most real-world systems. However, these systems may possess large-scale behaviors that do not depend on all these details (2). A simple model that correctly captures these large-scale behaviors but gets some details wrong is useful; a complicated model that gets some details correct but mischaracterizes the large-scale behaviors is misleading at best. The accuracy and sophistication of a model’s details matter only if the model’s general assumptions correctly describe the real-world behaviors of interest.

Carefully delineating models’ strengths and shortcomings will not only clarify how they can help but also temper expectations among policymakers and members of the public looking to understand the full impact of the virus in the weeks and months ahead. More important even than prediction is the ability of models to guide actions that can change this impact, including actions that can potentially drive the virus to extinction.

Understanding what models cannot predict is sometimes more important than understanding what they can. For example, in a chaotic system such as the weather, only very short-term predictions are accurate; small changes in the present can result in very large changes in the future. Likewise in the case of the pandemic’s trajectory: Because the number of infections depends exponentially on the growth rate of the epidemic, small inaccuracies in the prediction of the growth rate will lead to large changes in the number of deaths after enough time. Furthermore, the growth or decay rate of the epidemic depends on the precise implementation details of interventions, and a very small change in the strength of interventions could be the difference between two hugely different outcomes: exponential growth versus exponential decay. Gaining an approximate understanding of the trajectory of the epidemic is important. But given the considerable uncertainty arising from underlying disease and social dynamics—not to mention the uncertainty over exactly how interventions will be implemented—detailed refinements to models often create a misleading sense of certainty and precision.

More generally, trying to pin down details in models is futile if any accuracy gained is swamped by uncertainty in the measurements or by inaccuracies in the core model assumptions. What’s the point of refining a model by 10% if there is a 50% uncertainty stemming from other aspects or assumptions of the model? What’s the point of a sophisticated adjustment to a model if there is a relevant large-scale behavior of the modeled system that the model fails to capture altogether?

[...]

Finally, “What will happen?'” is a different question than “What should we do?” For COVID-19 the latter question is far easier to answer than the former. In the absence of a full understanding of a system’s details, answering the latter question involves understanding how our potential actions impact the relevant large-scale parameters of the system, which for COVID-19 are the rate of growth or decay in each region and the probabilities of transmission between regions.

The question of predicting the disease trajectory is less important than questions related to what’s necessary to 1) cause an exponential decrease rather than increase in new infections and 2) cause this decrease to occur as quickly as possible.

Even if we cannot precisely predict the impact of any given intervention, we know of many interventions that will reduce the rates of transmission within and between regions. And based on the empirical understanding of COVID-19 transmission and the fact that many countries have eliminated or nearly eliminated the virus, we know that combining enough interventions together will reduce the rate of transmission sufficiently to achieve exponential decline and stop the outbreak (7). This, in and of itself, is a simple but powerful formal model that captures the large-scale behaviors of interest.

This distinction is of particular importance because scientists often make predictions based on the assumption that societies are unwilling or unable to eliminate the virus. It’s an assumption that’s been invalidated by the actual actions and outcomes in countries such as Australia, Belize, China, Estonia, Greece, New Zealand, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, Thailand, Vietnam, and many others, as well as U.S. states such as Montana and Vermont. These regions controlled their outbreaks and have had little or no community transmission at the time of writing (1). Furthermore, the assumption that the virus cannot be beaten without a vaccine can become a self-fulfilling prophecy; policymakers may not take doable steps because they are discouraged by purported scientific predictions.

More generally, the use of models in pandemic response showcases a key difference between academically relevant research and policy-relevant analysis. The former can tolerate assumptions and models that are exploratory in nature, increasing our knowledge of the wide range of conditions that might happen at some time in the future or some location—or even in an alternative reality—thereby increasing the scope of our understanding. The latter must focus on validated assumptions and real-world risk, including uncertainty in both our data and our understanding. Policy actions must be guided by only sound assumptions, because mistaken assumptions may cost millions of lives. Instead of assuming that we fundamentally differ from all of the countries that have achieved or are nearing elimination (an assumption that becomes increasingly implausible as the number of these countries grows), we should instead focus on how we can replicate their common success.

Platystemon posted:

Inevitable, except in times and places where they have been evited.

The Saucer Hovers posted:

the cards are a lol

Bullfrog posted:

lmao its a meeting of the loving minds in this thread

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1484515780792356864

facetoucher cat posted:

I hear you, and I agree, but have you considered cat belly?

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

Paradise by the Ventilator Lights

Iron Crowned posted:

Gotta love it.

HR just sent out an email titled "CDC COVID-19 Quarantine and Isolation Guidelines"

It's a 7MB/ page .PDF file that was clearly just printed to PDF directly from, I assume some sort of screenshot of the CDC website.

You have columns split between pages, and at one point one like has the upper half of letters on one page and the lower half on the top of the next page.

The last six months this is basically COVID policy at work, half-assed abdication to whatever the CDC says, because actually looking into it is hard.

Bullfrog posted:

lmao its a meeting of the loving minds in this thread

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1484515780792356864