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I wonder why we didn’t get a twindemic with delta. I wonder what it means that Omi incorporated like 90% of the changes that “let’s simulate COVID mutating in the worst possible way” analysis, like maybe it won’t ping pong back and forth or mutate further. I guess I don’t need to wonder because we’ll find out, forget, and then find out again, in like 6 months when we all have mild Alzheimer’s from Pi or whatever
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Feb 9, 2022 14:59
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mycomancy posted:I'm trying to form hypotheses that exclude someone out-and-out falsifying data, as that is a really difficult thing to deduce. Let's go from first principles: they dont have a long term plan
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Feb 9, 2022 15:01
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Zodium posted:yeah, one of the most interesting things about omicron has been how it laid bare the raw incompetence at every level when the autopilot can't navigate around the problem. The blame and responsibility has been so thoroughly diffused by earlier inaction and perception management I doubt anyone actually made a good faith effort to do something
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Feb 9, 2022 15:01
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No one in this thread is saying the vaccine is bad or that you shouldn't get it. What they are saying is it's loving ludicrous to assume it will always offer the same protection from severe disease in future when we already have witnessed waning protection 3-6 months out from the last dos and a partial immune escape varient.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:03
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Why can’t we just wait for vaccines to be approved for little kids before ripping off every last protection we had (even if the bare minimum)? Why can’t we at least wait until these joke therapies like Pfizer’s pill or the only monoclonal antibody therapy we have are widely available? Oh right, midterms are coming up and democrats are gonna get shellacked. We’ll I’m not voting for anyone who supports this and opening everything up so good luck!
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Feb 9, 2022 15:03
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mycomancy posted:This isn't terribly true. We have had data float through the thread that 1) vaccines wear off and 2) in some cases vaccinated make up a sizeable proportion (40-60%) of reported deaths. Also, this doesn't take into account long COVID effects. Beached Whale posted:I don't really disagree with you that vaccinations can wear off in terms of effectiveness and that long covid is still very much an issue ignored by most OPEN ER UP libs but they do seem to be effective at preventing literal death unless this data is cooked in some way which I will admit is completely possible. You're both correct, but mycomancy is talking about the numbers of vaxxed/unvaxxed deaths and BW is talking about the rates of vaxxed/unvaxxed deaths. Unvaxxed people are still dying at a much much higher rate but because they're only a small percentage of the population the numbers in the two groups shake out to be approximately the same. Also note that the Our World In Data graph that BW posted doesn't include deaths of partially vaccinated people so there's a huge chunk of data missing from it https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status?country=~All+ages
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Feb 9, 2022 15:04
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mycomancy posted:Hard disagree. this is all just cope wrt not accepting that the people who run the world are all dumber than dog poo poo
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Feb 9, 2022 15:04
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GMA had some segment on Ideal Diet and legumes were a smaller category than meat???
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Feb 9, 2022 15:05
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Rutibex posted:the idology of capitalism prevents anyone capable of getting to the top from making a plan longer than 6 months. anyone who tries to make a plan that's 5 years or longer immediately becomes a Marxist when they examine the scope of what needs doing It's all about maximizing the short term gains of your shareholders.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:07
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mycomancy posted:Hard disagree. You're seeing evidence of co-ordination as a sign that some human is running a model and other humans are acting on it. Capitalism itself is the most sophisticated coordinating entity in current liberal society, capable of aligning the efforts of people in a completely decentralized fashion. Politicians, investment funds, op-ed writers and school board executives are all responding to the needs of capital right now, but this doesn't imply any centralized coordination is taking place. Shouldn't have to point out that despite this incredible degree of responsiveness the goals of capital itself are extremely reckless, prioritizing short-term returns over any other consideration. The pandemic has been an amazing demonstration of the resilience and sophistication of capitalism as a system. It ran circles around institutions or groups that wanted to prioritize public health over "the economy", to the extent there wasn't even a public debate in most places. This isn't an original observation, just badly adapting the thesis of "The Shock Doctrine". It does sting to see how ineffective and irrelevant the western "left" has been over the past two years. It was completely outmatched by a more sophisticated opponent, and it wasn't even close. Doesn't bode well for the future.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:07
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Steve Yun posted:https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F3800e619-3404-4e57-a9eb-dab311405c2a "There will also be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus." It's not safe to get medical care in this country lol
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Feb 9, 2022 15:09
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Has anyone ITT gotten an on-the-books second booster yet? I'm only three months out from my booster and I know max titers is always an option, just curious if there's going to be gatekeeping for shot No. 4.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:09
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Potato Salad posted:WHAT loving RESTRICTIONS
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Feb 9, 2022 15:10
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If our leaders were competent and evil they probably wouldn't be turning valuable steel and other materials into broken junk like the F35...
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Feb 9, 2022 15:11
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Chad Sexington posted:Has anyone ITT gotten an on-the-books second booster yet? Last I saw the data out of Israel showed no real benefit to a 4th booster, I do not have that study handy though.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:12
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mycomancy posted:Hard disagree. lol no they do not have a psycho-history model of how to prevent revolutions
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Feb 9, 2022 15:12
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Potato Salad posted:not that it matters, if you're depending on the concept of relying on air changes without controlled contamination/clean side control to mitigate the risk of getting covid, uhhhhhhhhhhh no Agreed, I'm doing it in anticipation of emergency situations I can't control aka if I can't talk my way out of a fire alarm inspection or if there's a serious apartment emergency where maintenance needs to come. Also getting worried about open windows this spring, so figure it's good to have. Thinking about everyone I know with a house just pissing that luxury away by having people over, it's enraging.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:12
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goth smoking cloves posted:If our leaders were competent and evil they probably wouldn't be turning valuable steel and other materials into broken junk like the F35... Why? Their buddies made a ton of money on that poo poo, and I guarantee an number of those leaders got kickbacks. Seems like a great way to make money to me. Sell the government junk, get $$$.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:12
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There's no model that could accurately forecast deaths because all models are dependent on Reff which is only measurable post hoc. In theory you could model transmission likelihood amongst a population (ala Covid simulator) via some monte carlo but in practice there's too many independent variables that are unknown, and of course they change with new variant.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:13
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gradenko_2000 posted:EVERY MORNING I WAKE UP AND OPEN PALM SLAM A NEWS ARTICLE INTO THE BROWSER. ITS A LIBERAL DEMANDING LIFTING RESTRICTIONS AND RIGHT THEN AND THERE I START DOING THE MOVES ALONGSIDE WITH THE MAIN CHARACTER, ROCHELLE WALENSKY. I DO EVERY MOVE AND I DO EVERY MOVE HARD. MAKIN WHOOSHING SOUNDS WHEN I RIP OFF SOME SURGICAL MASKS OR EVEN WHEN I MESS UP TECHNIQUE. NOT MANY CAN SAY THEY RETWEET MONICA GANDHI. I CAN. I SAY IT AND I SAY IT OUTLOUD EVERYDAY TO PEOPLE IN MY FACE-TO-FACE CLASSROOM AND ALL THEY DO IS PROVE PEOPLE WHO ARE TIRED OF REMOTE LEARNING CAN STILL BE IMMATURE JERKS. AND IVE LEARNED ALL THE LINES AND IVE LEARNED HOW TO MAKE MYSELF AND MY APARTMENT LESS LONELY BY SHOUTING OPEN BIDEN. 2 HOURS INCLUDING WIND DOWN EVERY MORNIng
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Feb 9, 2022 15:13
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How can anyone think the pandemic is ending? How can anyone think Omicron is the last one (even if we didn't already have another one tripling in a week's time)? I feel like screaming.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:18
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Chad Sexington posted:Has anyone ITT gotten an on-the-books second booster yet? Not approved for non-immunocompromised people yet, have definitely been looking into it myself. Total madness. The admin wants a vaccine-only pandemic strategy but won't even take the actions necessary to make it work. Instead they've committed themselves to pretending the pandemic is over, so not sure I'd even count on an official 2nd booster at this point. Also boosters still not approved for the 5-12 year old range because "there's no evidence of benefit" despite all the evidence that boosters are critically needed in adults for any hope of protection against Omicron. Additionally no vaccines approved for under 5 year olds at all, and US society is abandoning masks again. Just some additional related observations. goth smoking cloves posted:Last I saw the data out of Israel showed no real benefit to a 4th booster, I do not have that study handy though. IIRC they showed the 2nd booster (4th shot) didn't lead to any higher titres or more durable protection. However the ~3 month reduction in effectiveness against Omicron isn't really in question, the additional booster apparently just "resets the clock". Who knows, maybe with BA.2 all this talk of "effective neutralizing antibody protection symptomatic infection" is already irrelevant. Should see if there are measurements yet. Why Am I So Tired posted:Thinking about everyone I know with a house just pissing that luxury away by having people over, it's enraging. Nocturtle fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Feb 9, 2022 |
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Feb 9, 2022 15:20
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I've never before in my life felt this much of a disconnect between what my eyes are seeing and what my ears are hearing. One minute I feel like a god drat conspiracy theorist and the other minute I feel like the world has gone crazy. maybe it was always crazy and all Im seeing is the veil being lifted
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Feb 9, 2022 15:21
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Why Am I So Tired posted:How can anyone think the pandemic is ending? How can anyone think Omicron is the last one (even if we didn't already have another one tripling in a week's time)? I feel like screaming. Yeah mass infection = more new variants of concern. It's going to be a pattern of new surge over the next few years and even longer given the amount of corruption you have in the world's political system combined with slash + burn capitalism.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:21
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Glumwheels posted:Why can’t we just wait for vaccines to be approved for little kids before ripping off every last protection we had (even if the bare minimum)? Why can’t we at least wait until these joke therapies like Pfizer’s pill or the only monoclonal antibody therapy we have are widely available? Oh right, midterms are coming up and democrats are gonna get shellacked. We’ll I’m not voting for anyone who supports this and opening everything up so good luck! because that portion of the population is a small % of people who would get their kids vaxxed. my 9 year old is one of two kids in his class of 24 whose parents got him vaccinated the powers that be no longer see the point in delaying a full return to “normality”
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Feb 9, 2022 15:22
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mycomancy posted:Why? Their buddies made a ton of money on that poo poo, and I guarantee an number of those leaders got kickbacks. This is exactly what we are talking about, in the short term it makes sense to steal money this way but right now these materials are in short supply and likely worth more in the long run than the money they are being traded for. All they know is grift
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Feb 9, 2022 15:23
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It took getting Long COVID after seeing Spiderman in theaters to do it, but Gene is on our side! https://twitter.com/GenePark/status/1491417374465343491
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Feb 9, 2022 15:24
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idk seems like lifting mask mandates a few days after all the Super Bowl parties is especially reckless but I guess that's just how we do
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Feb 9, 2022 15:25
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Pigmassacre posted:I've never before in my life felt this much of a disconnect between what my eyes are seeing and what my ears are hearing. One minute I feel like a god drat conspiracy theorist and the other minute I feel like the world has gone crazy. the consent manufacturing is very high right now, just tap out and do something that doesn't involve absorbing mainstream media
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Feb 9, 2022 15:26
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If they were competent and evil, they would be using the f35 material to make drones to force everyone into work. Instead the entire government and business sector is an endless well of fail children giving each other reach a rounds.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:26
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Nocturtle posted:You're seeing evidence of co-ordination as a sign that some human is running a model and other humans are acting on it. They undoubtedly had a bunch of healthcare economists run up some models which proved that they had a lot of leeway not to act on anything and just keep stalling for time until the virus went away on its own and they went "  Yep that's the one"
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Feb 9, 2022 15:28
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Pepe Silvia Browne posted:the fantasy here is that there is ultimately still someone in charge. i don't doubt that they are engaged in the same fantasy - but it's fantasy. the bull is out of the pen. no one is in charge but the bull. a horse is loose in the hospital
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Feb 9, 2022 15:29
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Rutibex posted:the consent manufacturing is very high right now, just tap out and do something that doesn't involve absorbing mainstream media Yeah, you're right. There's really nothing to gain from mainlining news right now
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Feb 9, 2022 15:29
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Why Am I So Tired posted:Agreed, I'm doing it in anticipation of emergency situations I can't control aka if I can't talk my way out of a fire alarm inspection or if there's a serious apartment emergency where maintenance needs to come. Also getting worried about open windows this spring, so figure it's good to have. If you're in a shared/communal living space and not a single family home you're already turbofucked w.r.t. air quality control. Opening the windows would be a net benefit compared to sucking down recycled communal air that has been in any number of units with no chance to disburse. Why Am I So Tired posted:How can anyone think the pandemic is ending? How can anyone think Omicron is the last one (even if we didn't already have another one tripling in a week's time)? I feel like screaming. I had the surreal experience the other day of my boss worrying about me getting COVID as if I haven't been living by myself in a cottage in the rear end end of the suburbs, working from home and getting everything contactlessly delivered. I had to go for an in-person doctor's appointment today and... like... that's the most human contact I've had in recent memory. It's weird for me now because I'm starting to think a lot of the carelessness is coming from people who have casual contact with a small group of friends and family. My hypothesis is that the attitude is essentially reinforced by these small groups people think they have control over. The problem is people are bad at math and exposure risk is exponential with number of people you contact. My boss got COVID herself, despite being an utter germaphobe, and I guarantee it is because she has family members she's in contact with on a regular basis. "If I can get it you can get it." Yes, that is technically true, but I'm also a single person who isn't seeing ANYONE. I have no kids (huge risk), no partner, and I'm not visiting my mom. I'm in a situation where I can post a sign "put deliveries in the sun room" and never have to see another person without a door between us.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:29
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:They undoubtedly had a bunch of healthcare economists run up some models which proved that they had a lot of leeway not to act on anything and just keep stalling for time until the virus went away on its own and they went " yeah I'm sure they have some models by whatever egghead tells them what they want to hear. It's yes-man not an actual model that works
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Feb 9, 2022 15:30
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:They undoubtedly had a bunch of healthcare economists run up some models which proved that they had a lot of leeway not to act on anything and just keep stalling for time until the virus went away on its own and they went " see now this I don't doubt. I don't doubt that they have a 'plan' and that everything is going according to it. I just think that plan is a basically a printer that once every two weeks spits out the message: "Hang tight and hope for the best! It'll all be over soon!" It's just as much a fantasy of control on their end as it is on ours. Exerting any level of real control over this thing would involve taking actions that are not 'possible' within their understanding of things.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:33
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Why Am I So Tired posted:How can anyone think the pandemic is ending? How can anyone think Omicron is the last one (even if we didn't already have another one tripling in a week's time)? I feel like screaming. It's not like this is the first pandemic ever. Eventually, all they come to an end or shrink down to something like seasonal flu.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:33
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BoldFace posted:It's not like this is the first pandemic ever. Eventually, all they come to an end or shrink down to something like seasonal flu. smallpox.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:34
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Zodium posted:smallpox. one of the experimental vaccines the navy forced on me!
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Feb 9, 2022 15:35
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Everyone has given up on understanding how the material world works. Instead they make decisions by reacting to other people reactions. But now everyone is reacting to reactions of their own reactions and so on. They are uncontrollably jittering and clipping out of the environment. This is a cult “yes and”ing themselves into mass suicide. They have to get rid of masks so they can gauge others reactions to their current bit.
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Feb 9, 2022 15:36
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