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Red Baron posted:all of this sudden Mask mandate lifting seems like begging for the monkey paw to curl The last two years I've been keeping an old Russian proverb in mind : "And then things got worse." So far I've never been wrong.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 21:42 |
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# ? Jun 4, 2024 16:07 |
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CPU Abuser posted:They certainly do not. You keep saying this, but the fitness landscape of a virus not only can be experimentally explored, but was, and such efforts have broadly predicted the course of SARS-CoV-2 evolution for over a year. That's what makes the lack of any kind of long term planning even more idiotic. Besides--even when the catastrophic delta wave in India gave most of the western world a solid 3-4 month window to form some kind of anticipatory response, what we got instead was masks off, suck-n-gently caress 4th of July, open biden. That wasn't the result of some fundamental epistemological difficulties, it was a result of sheer ignorance, denial, and stupidity. The omicron variant behaves almost identically to the eventual immune escape variants that were predicted since late 2020, based on an exploration of the mutation space. The future evolution of the virus was predicted, with remarkable accuracy! Here watch: this is what covid is very likely going to do over the next year: -A churn of conformational escape bullshit on RBD, as has been the case constantly since the very first variant straight up through BA2 -Mutations that confer gradually better hACE2 binding, with the pace of this being largely determined by how effective the immunity conferred by an infection with the then-dominant variant is -Good odds we see more effective INF suppression via ORF8 or similar -Fair odds we see the re-emergence of delta-like FCS behavior -Not-so-likely wildcard recombination events, if they produce something that actually competes with SARS-CoV-2 as opposed to being an entirely different virus, are unlikely to regress very much along any of these axes of fitness. If they produce something crazy like new receptor tropism etc., it will probably co-circulate with SARS-CoV-2. The end result of all this is that antibody mediated immunity will continue to dwindle and not be very durable, absent any great new pharmaceutical interventions (like new/better vaccines). Anything that increases fitness or increases immune evasion will produce an apparent increase in transmissivity, even if intrinsic R0 is unchanged (which isn't to say it will be). The virus may become less virulent, but it is unlikely it will ever become intrinsically much less virulent than the OG wuhan strain. Many of the above will increase virulence, so there are good odds we see a more virulent strain in the future None of these are certainties, but they are informed by what we know about the mutational space and very obvious and inevitable selection pressures. They provide a sound guideline for long term planning and will broadly prove to be correct over the next several months. The only thing truly unpredictable with respect to new variants is the timing of their emergence, but even that can be safely estimated to be on the order of months and not years, at least when transmission is not suppressed In any case, one thing is absolutely clear: if you control the transmission of the virus, it will not spread and cases will decline. Controlling transmission, even of a very contagious respiratory virus, is not rocket science and is not actually unacceptably burdensome or difficult. That is really all any society needs to know to form a perfectly good long term plan. The fact that we have chosen to do a bunch of stupid poo poo instead is not due to a lack of information or knowledge about the future, it's due to poor leadership and people being idiots.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 21:45 |
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What the ‘normal’ (before Covid) percentage of ICU beds available ? And when does the next variant drop ?
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 21:48 |
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Doing heroic amounts of edibles constantly and just telling people it's post COVID brain fog when they wonder what's going on
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 21:48 |
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McCracAttack posted:The last two years I've been keeping an old Russian proverb in mind : "And then things got worse." “On average, we live pretty well: worse than last year, but definitely better than next year.”
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 21:49 |
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We will modulate restrictions so covid admissions ensure full utilization of our healthcare assets. Just in time sickness
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 21:56 |
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Angryhead posted:thread favorite:
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 21:56 |
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Some of my friends have decided it’s time for a mask off gently caress and suck Winter and scrolling through their photos of big family trips to Disney World and passports at the airport as they’re about to do some country hopping I was overcome by a deep and gnawing jealousy and antipathy. I tried breaking down why I felt that way and the best I have is that I want to be able to go out and travel but I can’t because I don’t want covid, like I’m jealous of the illusion of safe travel when that’s not even what they’re doing. And I think I’ve completely run out of sympathy for people trying to make 2019 come back, like it’s gone from being understandable to feeling purposely lovely. If everyone was at Disney World in N95s I wouldn’t feel jealous and I wouldn’t feel antagonized but everyone maskless eats at me in a way I don’t quite get yet. Anyway, I feel like y’all are probably the only people I know who would maybe get what I’m feeling here.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 21:57 |
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Tired of doing all these young adult brains for seizures you cavers have caused so much psychic damage
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:00 |
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Dr_0ctag0n posted:I got pissed a month ago and lost it when I found out that like half the office was out with covid and nobody mentioned it before I visited my grandparents. Had a heated conversation with my boss about how my health and safety are at risk simply because the company is 99% chuds who don't want to acknowledge reality.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:00 |
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Angryhead posted:thread favorite:
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:01 |
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Happy Noodle Boy posted:i got invited to a destination wedding lmao oh ya I love those final destination movies
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:02 |
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RealityWarCriminal posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1491511817729937410 wow...if only she hadn't been suppressed.....if only the message had gotten out
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:03 |
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Trixie Hardcore posted:Some of my friends have decided it’s time for a mask off gently caress and suck Winter and scrolling through their photos of big family trips to Disney World and passports at the airport as they’re about to do some country hopping I was overcome by a deep and gnawing jealousy and antipathy. I tried breaking down why I felt that way and the best I have is that I want to be able to go out and travel but I can’t because I don’t want covid, like I’m jealous of the illusion of safe travel when that’s not even what they’re doing. And I think I’ve completely run out of sympathy for people trying to make 2019 come back, like it’s gone from being understandable to feeling purposely lovely. If everyone was at Disney World in N95s I wouldn’t feel jealous and I wouldn’t feel antagonized but everyone maskless eats at me in a way I don’t quite get yet. I'm still in awe of my friend non ironically saying he felt left out he hasn't gotten sick yet and feels the need to do so. Like, this guy is physically fit and works very hard to stay that way so it's incredible to me that he's not acting like it.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:03 |
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Uglycat posted:Why isn't there a movement of people, being forced back in to the office, demanding the right to wear elastomeric respirators? OSHA voluntary use provisions only applies to filtering facepiece respirators, not elastomerics. You can get some pretty decent filtering facepieces, though. e: This is true in ordinary times, but elastomerics are allowed, for now, under the emergency regulations. Platystemon fucked around with this message at 01:18 on Feb 10, 2022 |
# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:06 |
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I thought COVID was over https://twitter.com/katierogers/status/1491506759516708866?s=20&t=yquXcf5eBu9050yBUzJzUA
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:07 |
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Morbus posted:You keep saying this, but the fitness landscape of a virus not only can be experimentally explored, but was, and such efforts have broadly predicted the course of SARS-CoV-2 evolution for over a year. That's what makes the lack of any kind of long term planning even more idiotic. Besides--even when the catastrophic delta wave in India gave most of the western world a solid 3-4 month window to form some kind of anticipatory response, what we got instead was masks off, suck-n-gently caress 4th of July, open biden. That wasn't the result of some fundamental epistemological difficulties, it was a result of sheer ignorance, denial, and stupidity. The omicron variant behaves almost identically to the eventual immune escape variants that were predicted since late 2020, based on an exploration of the mutation space. The future evolution of the virus was predicted, with remarkable accuracy! it’s this in an environment with unsuppressed transmission dynamics, the appearance of additional and (apparent if not inherent) more contagious variants is fuckin tautological. the virus that spreads better is selected for and will become predominant
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:07 |
redneck nazgul posted:if it can reinfect the same populace and the only thing stopping it from continually reproducing without interruption is the immune system finally getting into gear or killing the host, infecting the entire population in one go is exactly what it's gonna do. there's no pressure to slow down if it can just bounce from one side of the population to the other like a bunch of excited sports fans doing the wave. right yeah. I guess I was implicitly assuming *some* kind of immune activation otherwise it's like you said, just going hog wild
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:08 |
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Acelerion posted:We will modulate restrictions so covid admissions ensure full utilization of our healthcare assets. Just in time sickness lol yep
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:08 |
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Morbus posted:You keep saying this, but the fitness landscape of a virus not only can be experimentally explored, but was, and such efforts have broadly predicted the course of SARS-CoV-2 evolution for over a year. That's what makes the lack of any kind of long term planning even more idiotic. Besides--even when the catastrophic delta wave in India gave most of the western world a solid 3-4 month window to form some kind of anticipatory response, what we got instead was masks off, suck-n-gently caress 4th of July, open biden. That wasn't the result of some fundamental epistemological difficulties, it was a result of sheer ignorance, denial, and stupidity. The omicron variant behaves almost identically to the eventual immune escape variants that were predicted since late 2020, based on an exploration of the mutation space. The future evolution of the virus was predicted, with remarkable accuracy! I don't know if I can ever stop being furious about being forced into a previously solved problem because of the economy. Modern society is a joke.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:09 |
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Thoguh posted:I thought COVID was over gently caress this, Biden should be walking the walk not cowering behind NPIs like a whiny little bitch. This rear end in a top hat should be out there licking every doorknob in the White House on camera to prove how much he believes in Open Biden
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:10 |
Morbus posted:You keep saying this, but the fitness landscape of a virus not only can be experimentally explored, but was, and such efforts have broadly predicted the course of SARS-CoV-2 evolution for over a year. That's what makes the lack of any kind of long term planning even more idiotic. Besides--even when the catastrophic delta wave in India gave most of the western world a solid 3-4 month window to form some kind of anticipatory response, what we got instead was masks off, suck-n-gently caress 4th of July, open biden. That wasn't the result of some fundamental epistemological difficulties, it was a result of sheer ignorance, denial, and stupidity. The omicron variant behaves almost identically to the eventual immune escape variants that were predicted since late 2020, based on an exploration of the mutation space. The future evolution of the virus was predicted, with remarkable accuracy! gonna print this out and staple it to my forehead
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:10 |
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Morbus posted:You keep saying this, but the fitness landscape of a virus not only can be experimentally explored, but was, and such efforts have broadly predicted the course of SARS-CoV-2 evolution for over a year. That's what makes the lack of any kind of long term planning even more idiotic. Besides--even when the catastrophic delta wave in India gave most of the western world a solid 3-4 month window to form some kind of anticipatory response, what we got instead was masks off, suck-n-gently caress 4th of July, open biden. That wasn't the result of some fundamental epistemological difficulties, it was a result of sheer ignorance, denial, and stupidity. The omicron variant behaves almost identically to the eventual immune escape variants that were predicted since late 2020, based on an exploration of the mutation space. The future evolution of the virus was predicted, with remarkable accuracy! quoting to review this at my quarterly pandemic prepper meeting with myself
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:11 |
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Thoguh posted:I thought COVID was over over for thee, but not for me
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:12 |
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Lacrosse posted:gently caress this, Biden should be walking the walk not cowering behind NPIs like a whiny little bitch. This rear end in a top hat should be out there licking every doorknob in the White House on camera to prove how much he believes in Open Biden they want to keep him from getting it until 2024, but I do wonder how long they can keep this up
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:13 |
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Trixie Hardcore posted:Some of my friends have decided it’s time for a mask off gently caress and suck Winter and scrolling through their photos of big family trips to Disney World and passports at the airport as they’re about to do some country hopping I was overcome by a deep and gnawing jealousy and antipathy. I tried breaking down why I felt that way and the best I have is that I want to be able to go out and travel but I can’t because I don’t want covid, like I’m jealous of the illusion of safe travel when that’s not even what they’re doing. And I think I’ve completely run out of sympathy for people trying to make 2019 come back, like it’s gone from being understandable to feeling purposely lovely. If everyone was at Disney World in N95s I wouldn’t feel jealous and I wouldn’t feel antagonized but everyone maskless eats at me in a way I don’t quite get yet. Seeing people I like doing things that seem cruel and heartless has cut me pretty deep in ways that have surprised me. Stuff like visiting with family when they knew they had COVID. It's like they're not the person they thought they were and as I look around almost nobody else is either. I also realize I'm one of the last people I know taking COVID seriously and then I have trouble imagining what my future even looks like.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:14 |
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ORANGE MAN BAD
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:14 |
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Wrex Ruckus posted:they want to keep him from getting it until 2024, but I do wonder how long they can keep this up I don't think they are worried about his health. I'm sure he gets tested at least daily if not multiple times a day and he'd get MaBs within minutes after a positive test. But they wouldn't be able to hide the positive test from the public and they are probably worried about tHe OpTiCs of him catching COVID when COVID is over.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:15 |
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McCracAttack posted:Seeing people I like doing things that seem cruel and heartless has cut me pretty deep in ways that have surprised me. Stuff like visiting with family when they knew they had COVID. It's like they're not the person they thought they were and as I look around almost nobody else is either. i love chatting with my friends about how serious covid is and they'll loving agree with me to my (digital) face and then i'll see photos of them them later that day indoor dining because holy poo poo it's pasta time i'm so tired
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:16 |
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Wrex Ruckus posted:they want to keep him from getting it until 2024, but I do wonder how long they can keep this up Good news though, if he dies from covid, he has comorbidities *walensky voice*
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:16 |
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Happy Noodle Boy posted:i got invited to a destination wedding lmao yeah same sorta .. A real good friend is having their wedding in November. I was gonna attend the ceremony w a respirator and skip the reception obviously but I think he's gonna ask me to be in the wedding party. That's cool but I'm not taking the mask off for any reason so if that's an issue for photos or whatever they can get hosed.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:17 |
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McCracAttack posted:I also realize I'm one of the last people I know taking COVID seriously and then I have trouble imagining what my future even looks like. Yeah, I've said it before but I honestly don't know what I'm gonna do if I am able to get my kid vaccinated soon. After that I"m not sure what level I'll be able to keep up without going insane, ending up on the goondivorce.xls spreadsheet, or both. This is our life forever now and no help is coming.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:18 |
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kreeningsons posted:quoting to review this at my quarterly pandemic prepper meeting with myself
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:20 |
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sullat posted:Wasn't "glass lung" one of the big symptoms from China? IIRC they set up mobile x-ray scanners because tests weren't quite as available back during the early pandemic and they would see horrible looking lungs in people who were otherwise asymptomatic. spring of 2020 my nurse friend had a mountain biker come in with a broken shoulder, and when they x-rayed it, the lung was in the corner of the x-ray and lit up like a ball of lightning. no outward symptoms. the guy didn’t even know luckily they were already wearing masks and assuming anyone coming into the clinic was infected
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:22 |
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Thoguh posted:Yeah, I've said it before but I honestly don't know what I'm gonna do if I am able to get my kid vaccinated soon. After that I"m not sure what level I'll be able to keep up without going insane, ending up on the goondivorce.xls spreadsheet, or both. This is our life forever now and no help is coming. i know that i'm going to have to give some at that point or end up in the spreadsheet. it feels wrong but i'm not sure what else i could do.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:22 |
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Koirhor posted:ORANGE MAN BAD actually, orange man good
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:22 |
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Insanite posted:i love chatting with my friends about how serious covid is and they'll loving agree with me to my (digital) face and then i'll see photos of them them later that day indoor dining because holy poo poo it's pasta time And you're probably the only person they know who still does things like avoid restaurants. They've got the one doomer friend warning that COVID is still a threat vs the nine other friends texting them to meet up for drinks this Friday. I don't know how much sickness and death it will take to punch through that but evidently we still haven't seen it.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:23 |
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Thoguh posted:I don't think they are worried about his health. I'm sure he gets tested at least daily if not multiple times a day and he'd get MaBs within minutes after a positive test. But they wouldn't be able to hide the positive test from the public and they are probably worried about tHe OpTiCs of him catching COVID when COVID is over. lol they could absolutely hide positive tests how often does he just disappear for days on end
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:23 |
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We have a new normal where people sick worse, and more often, than they used to. People are going to die at a rate 10% higher than they used to, and being a nurse or doctor will be much worse than before. But it's all worth it because no one can tell you that you have to wear a mask. (But you still have to wear pants)
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:25 |
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# ? Jun 4, 2024 16:07 |
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honestly the best outcome at this point is that a hyper lethal variant emerges, possibly targeting specifically children (5 and under) and the elderly because only the sudden shock of mass death will spur leadership into actual meaningful action it may, however, require Covid to become hyper lethal to all ages before they even grudgingly act, which is my true nightmare scenario. that there simply will not be a level of death that causes any response.
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# ? Feb 9, 2022 22:25 |