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Insanite
Aug 30, 2005

Red Baron posted:

honestly the best outcome at this point is that a hyper lethal variant emerges, possibly targeting specifically children (5 and under) and the elderly because only the sudden shock of mass death will spur leadership into actual meaningful action

it may, however, require Covid to become hyper lethal to all ages before they even grudgingly act, which is my true nightmare scenario. that there simply will not be a level of death that causes any response.

this is p. much where i'm at, and i have a two-year-old. :\ no one is going to give a gently caress if it kills more old people, though--we've already decided that any deaths at 70+ are "eh, it was their time" territory, basically.

i guess we're just committing to grinding out dozens of thousands of deaths per year (best case scenario), reduced lung function, thrombosis roulette, and maybe doing the whole airborne dementia thing otherwise.

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Bar Crow
Oct 10, 2012

redneck nazgul posted:

lol they could absolutely hide positive tests

how often does he just disappear for days on end

He could drop dead and they would just hide it.

Chamale
Jul 11, 2010

I'm helping!



How the gently caress do Idaho and Kansas have a test positivity rate of 100%? Failing to include reported rapid tests in the denominator?

Insanite
Aug 30, 2005

Bar Crow posted:

He could drop dead and they would just hide itno one would notice.

Warmachine
Jan 30, 2012



Morbus posted:

You keep saying this, but the fitness landscape of a virus not only can be experimentally explored, but was, and such efforts have broadly predicted the course of SARS-CoV-2 evolution for over a year. That's what makes the lack of any kind of long term planning even more idiotic. Besides--even when the catastrophic delta wave in India gave most of the western world a solid 3-4 month window to form some kind of anticipatory response, what we got instead was masks off, suck-n-gently caress 4th of July, open biden. That wasn't the result of some fundamental epistemological difficulties, it was a result of sheer ignorance, denial, and stupidity. The omicron variant behaves almost identically to the eventual immune escape variants that were predicted since late 2020, based on an exploration of the mutation space. The future evolution of the virus was predicted, with remarkable accuracy!

Here watch: this is what covid is very likely going to do over the next year:

-A churn of conformational escape bullshit on RBD, as has been the case constantly since the very first variant straight up through BA2

-Mutations that confer gradually better hACE2 binding, with the pace of this being largely determined by how effective the immunity conferred by an infection with the then-dominant variant is

-Good odds we see more effective INF suppression via ORF8 or similar

-Fair odds we see the re-emergence of delta-like FCS behavior

-Not-so-likely wildcard recombination events, if they produce something that actually competes with SARS-CoV-2 as opposed to being an entirely different virus, are unlikely to regress very much along any of these axes of fitness. If they produce something crazy like new receptor tropism etc., it will probably co-circulate with SARS-CoV-2.

The end result of all this is that antibody mediated immunity will continue to dwindle and not be very durable, absent any great new pharmaceutical interventions (like new/better vaccines). Anything that increases fitness or increases immune evasion will produce an apparent increase in transmissivity, even if intrinsic R0 is unchanged (which isn't to say it will be). The virus may become less virulent, but it is unlikely it will ever become intrinsically much less virulent than the OG wuhan strain. Many of the above will increase virulence, so there are good odds we see a more virulent strain in the future

None of these are certainties, but they are informed by what we know about the mutational space and very obvious and inevitable selection pressures. They provide a sound guideline for long term planning and will broadly prove to be correct over the next several months. The only thing truly unpredictable with respect to new variants is the timing of their emergence, but even that can be safely estimated to be on the order of months and not years, at least when transmission is not suppressed

In any case, one thing is absolutely clear: if you control the transmission of the virus, it will not spread and cases will decline. Controlling transmission, even of a very contagious respiratory virus, is not rocket science and is not actually unacceptably burdensome or difficult. That is really all any society needs to know to form a perfectly good long term plan. The fact that we have chosen to do a bunch of stupid poo poo instead is not due to a lack of information or knowledge about the future, it's due to poor leadership and people being idiots.

Hence why my thesis on the topic was and remains, "It's a marketing problem."

Mind you, the marketing is working as designed. Capital is taking precautions and keeping itself alive while the proles (us) die for their profits. The system works.

Lacrosse
Jun 16, 2010

>:V


Wrex Ruckus posted:

they want to keep him from getting it until 2024, but I do wonder how long they can keep this up

Because they want him to run or because they don't want Kamala becoming president before then?

Crazyweasel
Oct 29, 2006
lazy

Thoguh posted:

Yeah, I've said it before but I honestly don't know what I'm gonna do if I am able to get my kid vaccinated soon. After that I"m not sure what level I'll be able to keep up without going insane, ending up on the goondivorce.xls spreadsheet, or both. This is our life forever now and no help is coming.


I was just about to post like this, what to do after my kid gets vaxxed (and will very soon have to go to preschool)…I’m probably going to open er up when it is warm and be miserable and stay inside when it is cold.

Honestly also probably going to look into how much I’d have to strip out of my life to afford a concierge doctor because at some point I’m just hoping for a quick chain from Positive -> mAbs

also I almost guarantee Biden has prophylactic Sotrovimab

wash bucket
Feb 21, 2006

At this point I would be content if people would just leave me alone to live as an eccentric hermit while they go back to normal. As long as I can go buy food and booze with a respirator on without being harassed I'm willing to go quietly.

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Red Baron posted:

honestly the best outcome at this point is that a hyper lethal variant emerges, possibly targeting specifically children (5 and under) and the elderly because only the sudden shock of mass death will spur leadership into actual meaningful action

it may, however, require Covid to become hyper lethal to all ages before they even grudgingly act, which is my true nightmare scenario. that there simply will not be a level of death that causes any response.

I don't think it would need to be that bad - look at how much they panicked in January because people were testing positive and isolating. I think a variant that gave a few points higher percentage of working age adults bad enough symptoms to knock them on their rear end for a week or two (so that they can't be forced back to work) would be enough for there to be a more robust response.

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







mastershakeman posted:

https://twitter.com/GovPritzker/status/1491507244541923329

seems like the reason hospitalizations are dropping so fast is that omicron was so contagious that pretty much the entire susceptible population all got it within a couple weeks

Also 80% icu capacity is a red alert at any other time lol

Warmachine
Jan 30, 2012



Lacrosse posted:

Because they want him to run or because they don't want Kamala becoming president before then?

A little of both, I think. As a run, I expect we'll see a Republican kick him out. As a casualty, I don't think they want to risk Kalama loving it up (or, comedy option, succeeding beyond anyone's wildest expectations).

McCracAttack posted:

At this point I would be content if people would just leave me alone to live as an eccentric hermit while they go back to normal. As long as I can go buy food and booze with a respirator on without being harassed I'm willing to go quietly.

Hell yeah. Embrace the lifestyle. I can vouch for it. It's great.

Red Baron
Mar 9, 2007

ty slumfrog :)

Insanite posted:

this is p. much where i'm at, and i have a two-year-old. :\ no one is going to give a gently caress if it kills more old people, though--we've already decided that any deaths at 70+ are "eh, it was their time" territory, basically.

i guess we're just committing to grinding out dozens of thousands of deaths per year (best case scenario), reduced lung function, thrombosis roulette, and maybe doing the whole airborne dementia thing otherwise.

true, it would only be the mass death of children that could possibly do anything which is extremely grim.

Long Covid won’t be enough, it’s too slow and we have the attention spans of 24 hours at best. anything that happens on a weeks to months scale won’t be seen as serious (as we saw again and again with the lag between cases, hospitalizations, and deaths)

if there is to be a strong response from those in authority it will be borne on the pile of suddenly dead (very young) kids, and it will likely come after some truly ghoulish hand-wringing about “local responses” and “states have the right to determine their pandemic responses”

Insanite
Aug 30, 2005

FizFashizzle posted:

Also 80% icu capacity is a red alert at any other time lol

i have been informed by people on the internet that hospitals need their ICUs full at all times in order to make money, actually

pigz
Jul 12, 2004

Nearly as overlooked as Joe Mauer
I see it is covid is over season. Its hilarious how astroturfed all this is. Guess the nj gov and the dems backers got the Whitehouse on board at the last minute . Just a pathetic display all around America.

goth smoking cloves
Feb 28, 2011

I keep having an elaborate fantasy where I procure a full face p100 respirator and rig up a speaker and mic so people can hear me speak and with that I am at least able to play in friday night magic again and see friends there...


Then I think about how that's an unnecessary risk and the all the ways I could gently caress up and still get infected.

wash bucket
Feb 21, 2006

Warmachine posted:

Hell yeah. Embrace the lifestyle. I can vouch for it. It's great.

Who knew being a single homebody would turn out to be an advantage in my lifetime?

tangy yet delightful
Sep 13, 2005



Lacrosse posted:

Because they want him to run or because they don't want Kamala becoming president before then?

IMO literally all they care about is the political and economic fallout from having one Joseph Robinette Biden getting covid and potentially a bad case of covid because covid is over and if it's over how did the president get hosed up by it?????

I mean sure Biden himself doesn't want to get covid but the political machinery itself doesn't care about that aspect, just that the economy and opening er up keep on going.

Red Baron
Mar 9, 2007

ty slumfrog :)

Thoguh posted:

I don't think it would need to be that bad - look at how much they panicked in January because people were testing positive and isolating. I think a variant that gave a few points higher percentage of working age adults bad enough symptoms to knock them on their rear end for a week or two (so that they can't be forced back to work) would be enough for there to be a more robust response.

it’s possible, but the whole “we just have to live with it” messaging is making me think that a bigger shock to the system will be needed than just a slow starving of the capital fuel. that may still do it, the establishment is very skittish rn, but knowing how gruesome we are as a culture I worry that we’ll need something along the lines of “multiple sandy hook’s per day” rather than just more 9/11’s

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

FizFashizzle posted:

Also 80% icu capacity is a red alert at any other time lol

Just like our current case and death numbers are a huge red alert compared to the last two years but they are smaller than January so are ignored.

Warmachine
Jan 30, 2012



Insanite posted:

i have been informed by people on the internet that hospitals need their ICUs full at all times in order to make money, actually

They make us sick (COVID)
And suppress our medicine (Cum)
So we buy their cure (OPEN BIDEN)

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Need to get serious and figure out how to get access to Sotrovimab+Paxlovid before the inevitable reinfection(s). The rich have identified the treatments as their ticket out of COVID and there must be some way to get in on that. Maybe a well connected concierge doctor?

Actually see some advertising in-home Sotrovimab treatments in the NYC area, very bold. However even then it seems you need to be immunocompromised to be eligible, not sure how you can get around that.

To be clear don't like discussing how to jump ahead of immunocompromised people in getting life saving treatments. If instead could somehow snatch a dose reserved for a Trump scion that would be optimal.

edit:

Crazyweasel posted:

I was just about to post like this, what to do after my kid gets vaxxed (and will very soon have to go to preschool)…I’m probably going to open er up when it is warm and be miserable and stay inside when it is cold.

Honestly also probably going to look into how much I’d have to strip out of my life to afford a concierge doctor because at some point I’m just hoping for a quick chain from Positive -> mAbs

also I almost guarantee Biden has prophylactic Sotrovimab
huh we're all thinking about it

Warmachine
Jan 30, 2012



goth smoking cloves posted:

I keep having an elaborate fantasy where I procure a full face p100 respirator and rig up a speaker and mic so people can hear me speak and with that I am at least able to play in friday night magic again and see friends there...


Then I think about how that's an unnecessary risk and the all the ways I could gently caress up and still get infected.

I've been digging more and more into my nascent modeling hobby, and I'm still enchanted by the idea of 3D printing some cladding for my p100 and maybe doing this voice box thing (with proper sealing and fit testing) to really bedazzle my COVID apocalypse kit.

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster

this is bullshit btw. mRNA vaccines had already peaked weeks before the j&j pause, and after an immediate bump of getting mRNAs on already scheduled j&j appointments, they continued their downward trend

two-time fee
Jan 13, 2022

MLK Ultra posted:

solid move on the Hot Chip track.

I know it's lame semi self-referencing when thread bankrupt, but yeah, that's one Hot Chip. Cheers MLK Ultra, fare thee well.

Fireside Nut
Feb 10, 2010

turp


Covid status:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id3h3eRiuOs

ram dass in hell
Dec 29, 2019
Probation
Can't post for 5 hours!

Morbus posted:

You keep saying this, but the fitness landscape of a virus not only can be experimentally explored, but was, and such efforts have broadly predicted the course of SARS-CoV-2 evolution for over a year. That's what makes the lack of any kind of long term planning even more idiotic. Besides--even when the catastrophic delta wave in India gave most of the western world a solid 3-4 month window to form some kind of anticipatory response, what we got instead was masks off, suck-n-gently caress 4th of July, open biden. That wasn't the result of some fundamental epistemological difficulties, it was a result of sheer ignorance, denial, and stupidity. The omicron variant behaves almost identically to the eventual immune escape variants that were predicted since late 2020, based on an exploration of the mutation space. The future evolution of the virus was predicted, with remarkable accuracy!

Here watch: this is what covid is very likely going to do over the next year:

-A churn of conformational escape bullshit on RBD, as has been the case constantly since the very first variant straight up through BA2

-Mutations that confer gradually better hACE2 binding, with the pace of this being largely determined by how effective the immunity conferred by an infection with the then-dominant variant is

-Good odds we see more effective INF suppression via ORF8 or similar

-Fair odds we see the re-emergence of delta-like FCS behavior

-Not-so-likely wildcard recombination events, if they produce something that actually competes with SARS-CoV-2 as opposed to being an entirely different virus, are unlikely to regress very much along any of these axes of fitness. If they produce something crazy like new receptor tropism etc., it will probably co-circulate with SARS-CoV-2.

The end result of all this is that antibody mediated immunity will continue to dwindle and not be very durable, absent any great new pharmaceutical interventions (like new/better vaccines). Anything that increases fitness or increases immune evasion will produce an apparent increase in transmissivity, even if intrinsic R0 is unchanged (which isn't to say it will be). The virus may become less virulent, but it is unlikely it will ever become intrinsically much less virulent than the OG wuhan strain. Many of the above will increase virulence, so there are good odds we see a more virulent strain in the future

None of these are certainties, but they are informed by what we know about the mutational space and very obvious and inevitable selection pressures. They provide a sound guideline for long term planning and will broadly prove to be correct over the next several months. The only thing truly unpredictable with respect to new variants is the timing of their emergence, but even that can be safely estimated to be on the order of months and not years, at least when transmission is not suppressed

In any case, one thing is absolutely clear: if you control the transmission of the virus, it will not spread and cases will decline. Controlling transmission, even of a very contagious respiratory virus, is not rocket science and is not actually unacceptably burdensome or difficult. That is really all any society needs to know to form a perfectly good long term plan. The fact that we have chosen to do a bunch of stupid poo poo instead is not due to a lack of information or knowledge about the future, it's due to poor leadership and people being idiots.

Steve Yun
Aug 7, 2003
I'm a parasitic landlord that needs to get a job instead of stealing worker's money. Make sure to remind me when I post.
Soiled Meat
https://twitter.com/jfeldman_epi/status/1478947364085944323?s=21

wow I’d love to get paid $15,000 per appearance to spout nonsense on CNN

Asproigerosis
Mar 13, 2013

insufferable
If you think about it 3k dead a day is a small price to pay for having 5G and brunch on demand

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


Morbus posted:

You keep saying this, but the fitness landscape of a virus not only can be experimentally explored, but was, and such efforts have broadly predicted the course of SARS-CoV-2 evolution for over a year. That's what makes the lack of any kind of long term planning even more idiotic. Besides--even when the catastrophic delta wave in India gave most of the western world a solid 3-4 month window to form some kind of anticipatory response, what we got instead was masks off, suck-n-gently caress 4th of July, open biden. That wasn't the result of some fundamental epistemological difficulties, it was a result of sheer ignorance, denial, and stupidity. The omicron variant behaves almost identically to the eventual immune escape variants that were predicted since late 2020, based on an exploration of the mutation space. The future evolution of the virus was predicted, with remarkable accuracy!

Here watch: this is what covid is very likely going to do over the next year:

-A churn of conformational escape bullshit on RBD, as has been the case constantly since the very first variant straight up through BA2

-Mutations that confer gradually better hACE2 binding, with the pace of this being largely determined by how effective the immunity conferred by an infection with the then-dominant variant is

-Good odds we see more effective INF suppression via ORF8 or similar

-Fair odds we see the re-emergence of delta-like FCS behavior

-Not-so-likely wildcard recombination events, if they produce something that actually competes with SARS-CoV-2 as opposed to being an entirely different virus, are unlikely to regress very much along any of these axes of fitness. If they produce something crazy like new receptor tropism etc., it will probably co-circulate with SARS-CoV-2.

The end result of all this is that antibody mediated immunity will continue to dwindle and not be very durable, absent any great new pharmaceutical interventions (like new/better vaccines). Anything that increases fitness or increases immune evasion will produce an apparent increase in transmissivity, even if intrinsic R0 is unchanged (which isn't to say it will be). The virus may become less virulent, but it is unlikely it will ever become intrinsically much less virulent than the OG wuhan strain. Many of the above will increase virulence, so there are good odds we see a more virulent strain in the future

None of these are certainties, but they are informed by what we know about the mutational space and very obvious and inevitable selection pressures. They provide a sound guideline for long term planning and will broadly prove to be correct over the next several months. The only thing truly unpredictable with respect to new variants is the timing of their emergence, but even that can be safely estimated to be on the order of months and not years, at least when transmission is not suppressed

In any case, one thing is absolutely clear: if you control the transmission of the virus, it will not spread and cases will decline. Controlling transmission, even of a very contagious respiratory virus, is not rocket science and is not actually unacceptably burdensome or difficult. That is really all any society needs to know to form a perfectly good long term plan. The fact that we have chosen to do a bunch of stupid poo poo instead is not due to a lack of information or knowledge about the future, it's due to poor leadership and people being idiots.

actually poo poo doesnt get done bc its not profitable, OP

(a good post nonetheless.)

Trixie Hardcore
Jul 1, 2006

Placeholder.

Strep Vote posted:

I don't know if I can ever stop being furious about being forced into a previously solved problem because of the economy. Modern society is a joke.

Not even becoming the Joker helped me deal with the fact we live in a society and it’s a bad one.

McCracAttack posted:

Seeing people I like doing things that seem cruel and heartless has cut me pretty deep in ways that have surprised me. Stuff like visiting with family when they knew they had COVID. It's like they're not the person they thought they were and as I look around almost nobody else is either.

I also realize I'm one of the last people I know taking COVID seriously and then I have trouble imagining what my future even looks like.

I feel the same way. Like I’ve had an unstable life and I’m pretty good at adapting to bad circumstances but it’s one thing when it’s your life that sucks and it’s a whole other when it’s objective reality. I can do the things I need to to try to stay safe and try to stay sane but when it comes to thinking of life 3 months from now or a year from now or 3 years from now or anything in the future I feel completely unmoored from it. Like the future doesn’t really exist anymore and anything I do to prepare for it feels more like ritual than planning. Listening to friends make plans that rely on the assumption that things are just going to get better from here on out just amplifies the feeling.

Red Baron posted:

true, it would only be the mass death of children that could possibly do anything which is extremely grim.

Long Covid won’t be enough, it’s too slow and we have the attention spans of 24 hours at best. anything that happens on a weeks to months scale won’t be seen as serious (as we saw again and again with the lag between cases, hospitalizations, and deaths)

if there is to be a strong response from those in authority it will be borne on the pile of suddenly dead (very young) kids, and it will likely come after some truly ghoulish hand-wringing about “local responses” and “states have the right to determine their pandemic responses”

I feel like one of the main lessons to come from this pandemic is people can ignore an infinite amount of dead children and elderly. And disabled people. And fat people, even if they themselves are the fat people. That and anything that doesn’t kill you in the first 72 hours of infection can be dismissed as mild. It’s hard to say what I think would actually result in a strong public health response from authority without getting into really grim scenarios and I don’t want to jinx reality more than it already is.

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


Red Baron posted:

honestly the best outcome at this point is that a hyper lethal variant emerges, possibly targeting specifically children (5 and under) and the elderly because only the sudden shock of mass death will spur leadership into actual meaningful action

it may, however, require Covid to become hyper lethal to all ages before they even grudgingly act, which is my true nightmare scenario. that there simply will not be a level of death that causes any response.
hosed up but true

the alternative is millions of poor, less than perfectly fit, old, and frankly, non-white people dying while everyone else tilts back mimosas and grumbling about trump supporters

Lacrosse
Jun 16, 2010

>:V


Trixie Hardcore posted:

Not even becoming the Joker helped me deal with the fact we live in a society and it’s a bad one.

I feel the same way. Like I’ve had an unstable life and I’m pretty good at adapting to bad circumstances but it’s one thing when it’s your life that sucks and it’s a whole other when it’s objective reality. I can do the things I need to to try to stay safe and try to stay sane but when it comes to thinking of life 3 months from now or a year from now or 3 years from now or anything in the future I feel completely unmoored from it. Like the future doesn’t really exist anymore and anything I do to prepare for it feels more like ritual than planning. Listening to friends make plans that rely on the assumption that things are just going to get better from here on out just amplifies the feeling.

I feel like one of the main lessons to come from this pandemic is people can ignore an infinite amount of dead children and elderly. And disabled people. And fat people, even if they themselves are the fat people. That and anything that doesn’t kill you in the first 72 hours of infection can be dismissed as mild. It’s hard to say what I think would actually result in a strong public health response from authority without getting into really grim scenarios and I don’t want to jinx reality more than it already is.

I figure the US can stand to lose about 100 million people before anyone gives a poo poo. If you're wondering where I got that number from, that's roughly how many people the US grew by since the 1990s, which incidentally happened to the last time anyone outside of the 1% could afford to have a nice life.

Raskolnikov2089
Nov 3, 2006

Schizzy to the matic

Morbus posted:

You keep saying this, but the fitness landscape of a virus not only can be experimentally explored, but was, and such efforts have broadly predicted the course of SARS-CoV-2 evolution for over a year. That's what makes the lack of any kind of long term planning even more idiotic. Besides--even when the catastrophic delta wave in India gave most of the western world a solid 3-4 month window to form some kind of anticipatory response, what we got instead was masks off, suck-n-gently caress 4th of July, open biden. That wasn't the result of some fundamental epistemological difficulties, it was a result of sheer ignorance, denial, and stupidity. The omicron variant behaves almost identically to the eventual immune escape variants that were predicted since late 2020, based on an exploration of the mutation space. The future evolution of the virus was predicted, with remarkable accuracy!

Here watch: this is what covid is very likely going to do over the next year:

-A churn of conformational escape bullshit on RBD, as has been the case constantly since the very first variant straight up through BA2

-Mutations that confer gradually better hACE2 binding, with the pace of this being largely determined by how effective the immunity conferred by an infection with the then-dominant variant is

-Good odds we see more effective INF suppression via ORF8 or similar

-Fair odds we see the re-emergence of delta-like FCS behavior

-Not-so-likely wildcard recombination events, if they produce something that actually competes with SARS-CoV-2 as opposed to being an entirely different virus, are unlikely to regress very much along any of these axes of fitness. If they produce something crazy like new receptor tropism etc., it will probably co-circulate with SARS-CoV-2.

The end result of all this is that antibody mediated immunity will continue to dwindle and not be very durable, absent any great new pharmaceutical interventions (like new/better vaccines). Anything that increases fitness or increases immune evasion will produce an apparent increase in transmissivity, even if intrinsic R0 is unchanged (which isn't to say it will be). The virus may become less virulent, but it is unlikely it will ever become intrinsically much less virulent than the OG wuhan strain. Many of the above will increase virulence, so there are good odds we see a more virulent strain in the future

None of these are certainties, but they are informed by what we know about the mutational space and very obvious and inevitable selection pressures. They provide a sound guideline for long term planning and will broadly prove to be correct over the next several months. The only thing truly unpredictable with respect to new variants is the timing of their emergence, but even that can be safely estimated to be on the order of months and not years, at least when transmission is not suppressed

In any case, one thing is absolutely clear: if you control the transmission of the virus, it will not spread and cases will decline. Controlling transmission, even of a very contagious respiratory virus, is not rocket science and is not actually unacceptably burdensome or difficult. That is really all any society needs to know to form a perfectly good long term plan. The fact that we have chosen to do a bunch of stupid poo poo instead is not due to a lack of information or knowledge about the future, it's due to poor leadership and people being idiots.

I love that at no time in human history have we ever been better prepared to stop a deadly pandemic and the decision arrived at was, "nah, costs too much".

I look forward to whatever half assed measures we throw at climate change when it starts to get really noticeable in rich countries.

Crazyweasel
Oct 29, 2006
lazy

Lacrosse posted:

I figure the US can stand to lose about 100 million people before anyone gives a poo poo. If you're wondering where I got that number from, that's roughly how many people the US grew by since the 1990s, which incidentally happened to the last time anyone outside of the 1% could afford to have a nice life.

holy poo poo I had no idea we picked up 100million people since the mid-90s

lol gently caress humans are the real virus am I rite?

Red Baron
Mar 9, 2007

ty slumfrog :)

JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:

hosed up but true

the alternative is millions of poor, less than perfectly fit, old, and frankly, non-white people dying while everyone else tilts back mimosas and grumbling about trump supporters

frankly this is what I expect, and my wish for the sudden and swift strike of mass death is more a wishful “what if” because if I’m honest, in the darkest corner of my heart I think maybe even that might fail.

if capital could do away with the proletariat in this country they would do it in a heartbeat or a lifetime, but they would do it.

Atoramos
Aug 31, 2003

Jim's now a Blind Cave Salamander!


Morbus posted:

You keep saying this, but the fitness landscape of a virus not only can be experimentally explored, but was, and such efforts have broadly predicted the course of SARS-CoV-2 evolution for over a year. That's what makes the lack of any kind of long term planning even more idiotic. Besides--even when the catastrophic delta wave in India gave most of the western world a solid 3-4 month window to form some kind of anticipatory response, what we got instead was masks off, suck-n-gently caress 4th of July, open biden. That wasn't the result of some fundamental epistemological difficulties, it was a result of sheer ignorance, denial, and stupidity. The omicron variant behaves almost identically to the eventual immune escape variants that were predicted since late 2020, based on an exploration of the mutation space. The future evolution of the virus was predicted, with remarkable accuracy!

Here watch: this is what covid is very likely going to do over the next year:

-A churn of conformational escape bullshit on RBD, as has been the case constantly since the very first variant straight up through BA2

-Mutations that confer gradually better hACE2 binding, with the pace of this being largely determined by how effective the immunity conferred by an infection with the then-dominant variant is

-Good odds we see more effective INF suppression via ORF8 or similar

-Fair odds we see the re-emergence of delta-like FCS behavior

-Not-so-likely wildcard recombination events, if they produce something that actually competes with SARS-CoV-2 as opposed to being an entirely different virus, are unlikely to regress very much along any of these axes of fitness. If they produce something crazy like new receptor tropism etc., it will probably co-circulate with SARS-CoV-2.

The end result of all this is that antibody mediated immunity will continue to dwindle and not be very durable, absent any great new pharmaceutical interventions (like new/better vaccines). Anything that increases fitness or increases immune evasion will produce an apparent increase in transmissivity, even if intrinsic R0 is unchanged (which isn't to say it will be). The virus may become less virulent, but it is unlikely it will ever become intrinsically much less virulent than the OG wuhan strain. Many of the above will increase virulence, so there are good odds we see a more virulent strain in the future

None of these are certainties, but they are informed by what we know about the mutational space and very obvious and inevitable selection pressures. They provide a sound guideline for long term planning and will broadly prove to be correct over the next several months. The only thing truly unpredictable with respect to new variants is the timing of their emergence, but even that can be safely estimated to be on the order of months and not years, at least when transmission is not suppressed

In any case, one thing is absolutely clear: if you control the transmission of the virus, it will not spread and cases will decline. Controlling transmission, even of a very contagious respiratory virus, is not rocket science and is not actually unacceptably burdensome or difficult. That is really all any society needs to know to form a perfectly good long term plan. The fact that we have chosen to do a bunch of stupid poo poo instead is not due to a lack of information or knowledge about the future, it's due to poor leadership and people being idiots.

call_of_qthulhu
Nov 21, 2003


Fun Shoe

RealityWarCriminal posted:

over for thee, but not for me

Computer Serf
May 14, 2005
Buglord

:thunk:

https://twitter.com/KathMLee1/status/1490391720080650246

https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1481683717785624577?t=V9jif5M59y0h_jdbv5PWdA&s=09

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41418-022-00936-x

https://bjgplife.com/of-hervs-and-covid-19-questions-for-the-future/

May, 2020 posted:

But, beyond a few virologists, who has noticed that the spike protein of Sars-Cov-2, against which teams are competing to develop a vaccine, is highly homologous with a human HERV protein, syncytin-1.(4) What, indeed, are HERV proteins? What are HERVs?

HERVs are human endogenous retroviruses, that is to say retroviruses whose DNA, over millions of years, has become part of our DNA. All retroviruses, such as HIV, contain viral RNA which is transcribed into DNA and inserted into the host genome. Viral DNA normally leads to the production of more viral RNA, viral proteins and infective particles. In contrast HERV DNA, due to certain faults, is no longer translated into RNA and proteins. Astonishingly 8% of human DNA consists of these preserved but inactive retrovirus DNA sequences, more than is devoted to DNA coding known human proteins. HERVs have been called ’fossil viruses’. They are largely ‘selfish genetic elements’, that is to say that they are reproduced without any benefit to the host, but merely perpetuate themselves as genes.

Do any these HERV sequences in our DNA have an active role, or are they all dormant? A few are indeed expressed. Syncytin-1, which is a HERV derived protein, causes fusion of cells in the trophoblast and has a role in placentation. Why should a virus derived protein have a role in cell fusion? Perhaps because fusing to the host cell membrane is a virus’s first task. The expression of other HERV proteins, triggered by viruses, especially EBV, can be harmful.(1) It is now suggested that this is what happens in multiple sclerosis (MS) and type 1 diabetes.(6) In MS raised levels of a particular HERV virus and protein can be found in the CSF and in active MS plaques.(7,8) In the case of MS, the trigger is probably EBV infection.(9) In type 1 diabetes the protein pHERV-W Env is expressed in beta calls.(10) Temelimab, a monoclonal antibody against pHERV-W Env has been trialled in MS and type 1 diabetes. It has had measurable success in MS, initiating remyelination of nerve cells, but no success yet in Type 1 diabetes.(11,12)
That very common disorder, schizophrenia, with a prevalence of 1% of the population, may be associated with the expression of HERVs.(13) It has been known for a long time that schizophrenia can be triggered by infection; there was a large surge in cases after the 1918 influenza pandemic.(14)

Three questions can now be asked about the remarkable homology recorded between SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and HER-W derived protein syncytin-1.(4) Firstly, is that why COVID-19 has adverse effects on pregnancy and child birth? (15) Secondly, is the protection women enjoy relative to men due to immune modulation by the expression of syncytin-1 during childbirth and placentation? If so, do nulliparous women not share that relative protection? It should be straightforward to find this out.

Finally, will the COVID-19 pandemic trigger the expression of HERV proteins in some patients and lead to the emergence of new diseases as it wanes, just as occurred after the 1918 flu pandemic? There are already suggestions that this might be the case for some neurological presentations.(16) Will somebody be measuring syncytin-1 in the CSF of these patients?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Envelope_glycoprotein_GP120

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syncytin-1

:coronatoot: :dehumanize: :beerpal:

only your respirator trust :pilot:

Pink Mist
Sep 28, 2021

Red Baron posted:

true, it would only be the mass death of children that could possibly do anything which is extremely grim.

Long Covid won’t be enough, it’s too slow and we have the attention spans of 24 hours at best. anything that happens on a weeks to months scale won’t be seen as serious (as we saw again and again with the lag between cases, hospitalizations, and deaths)

if there is to be a strong response from those in authority it will be borne on the pile of suddenly dead (very young) kids, and it will likely come after some truly ghoulish hand-wringing about “local responses” and “states have the right to determine their pandemic responses”

They’ll just tell parents of kids 0-5 to lock down so everyone else can enjoy MILD breakthroughs and continue the old normal.

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skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

Pink Mist posted:

They’ll just tell parents of kids 0-5 to lock down so everyone else can enjoy MILD breakthroughs and continue the old normal.

Their employers will be outraged

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