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cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Conspiratiorist posted:

It's been going on for years.

Can't we just thread ban TL already?
It would be a much better place. There's a lot to discuss about CC and adaptations, and it sucks that this thread is basically devoted to continually pushing back against denialist garbage.

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Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares



Again, selective cropping! Do you somehow think that you aren't going to get caught doing this?




Fake edit: You want me to believe that, in your first post, you were actually talking about just a specific subset of reports' trendline, for a specific derived economic concentration pathway, for the projected outcomes of one specific milestone year that isn't even the conventional headline year that politicians and scientists talk about? You want me to believe that you were that obscure and specific the entire time?

Even if we can take you at face value there, we can see plain as day the broader context and trends of sea level underreporting in the IPCC reports. Thanks to the contribution of a bunch of people in the last couple of pages, we have an appreciation for what some of the causes are--both mathematical and social.

You're sunk either way.

Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Feb 16, 2022

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


cat botherer posted:

It would be a much better place. There's a lot to discuss about CC and adaptations, and it sucks that this thread is basically devoted to continually pushing back against denialist garbage.

It's 2022 and we're dealing with some guy who context-free posted some...provocative (?) picture of Joe Rogan's soundstage from the perspective of a climate scientist's smartphone.

It's a picture. From a smartphone of some guy. Some guy I don't think he even sourced. Was the implied statement, "well look, here's a climate scientist who tried to reach out to Joe Rogan's audience, maybe the subject is more complex than you thought?" It's puzzling.

Edit: I removed my less charitable speculation on Thug's motivations, in accordance with prior advisement.

Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Feb 16, 2022

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


cat botherer posted:

It would be a much better place. There's a lot to discuss about CC and adaptations, and it sucks that this thread is basically devoted to continually pushing back against denialist garbage.

Demons Under Every Rock: The Ever-Expanding Definition of Climate Denial

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
Guys at breakthrough who take/took funding from Ag firms and shale fracking companies and advocate for Future Tech breakthroughs are worried people might accuse them of not being aggressive enough on climate change mitigations….

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.
By Nordhaus, lmao. The guy with the massive galaxy brain who thinks climate change isn't a big deal because of the time value of money.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


cat botherer posted:

By Nordhaus, lmao. The guy with the massive galaxy brain who thinks climate change isn't a big deal because of the time value of money.

He does think it's a big deal. That literally the whole point of the entire organization. To find a breakthrough that leads to faster decarbonization.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

He does think it's a big deal. That literally the whole point of the entire organization. To find a breakthrough that leads to faster decarbonization.
And BP did the "calculate your carbon footprint" campaign out of genuine concern for the climate. Funny how all of their positions just so happen to be good for the people they get their funding from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakthrough_Institute#Reception

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Feb 16, 2022

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


I don't have an issue with any of that. For someone to spend all their time, energy, etc. on something that reduces greenhouse gas emissions. I think that's a good thing.

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

He does think it's a big deal. That literally the whole point of the entire organization. To find a breakthrough that leads to faster decarbonization.

My dude are you completely unfamiliar with this institute?

Notorious R.I.M. fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Feb 16, 2022

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Notorious R.I.M. posted:

My dude are you completely unfamiliar with nordhaus's body of work?

Some of it, I am.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 3 days!
Did you have any actual specific commentary on what you think is being incorrectly identified as denialism?

hobbez
Mar 1, 2012

Don't care. Just do not care. We win, you lose. You do though, you seem to care very much

I'm going to go ride my mountain bike, later nerds.

Thug Lessons posted:

On a totally unrelated note, here's an actual climate scientist's POV from the set of Joe Rogan.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1493707084625555466

I’m about 20 minutes into this, and it’s, uh, a frustrating listen so far to say the least. Like the guest is trying to talked about how solar panels interface with grids and Rogan keeps trying to derail the conversation into talking about off-grid solar prepper-ism.

And this is coming from someone that is actually pretty pro stupid bald monkey lovin man

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

hobbez posted:

I’m about 20 minutes into this, and it’s, uh, a frustrating listen so far to say the least. Like the guest is trying to talked about how solar panels interface with grids and Rogan keeps trying to derail the conversation into talking about off-grid solar prepper-ism.

And this is coming from someone that is actually pretty pro stupid bald monkey lovin man

I mean....what are you expecting from a man who apparently cannot stop himself from saying the n word in 70 episodes and loves inviting Alt-Right Holocaust denying figures on his show?

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


hobbez posted:

I’m about 20 minutes into this, and it’s, uh, a frustrating listen so far to say the least. Like the guest is trying to talked about how solar panels interface with grids and Rogan keeps trying to derail the conversation into talking about off-grid solar prepper-ism.

And this is coming from someone that is actually pretty pro stupid bald monkey lovin man

Is it even worth listening too? Sigh, I'm not surprised Rogan's being his libertarian self.

Edit - I'm sure it'll be repeated constantly that he's not biased because he had "both sides" on his show :jerkbag:

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Harold Fjord posted:

Did you have any actual specific commentary on what you think is being incorrectly identified as denialism?

No, the article I shared earlier explains it.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Seeing the synopsis for the episode pop up on twitter did give me a laugh earlier, so maybe it's worth a listen

quote:

Appearing on The Joe Rogan Experience, Steven E. Koonin explains that climate science is unsettled. He argues that the data show that the climate is changing, that it is man-made, and that it is happening slowly enough that we have time to adapt to the changes. He says that policy makers, the media, and scientists need to examine the data honestly and stop the alarmism.

Steven E. Koonin is a theoretical physicist, professor, former Chief Scientist for the BP petroleum company, and former Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy under the Obama administration. He’s also the author of “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.”

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Kalli posted:

Seeing the synopsis for the episode pop up on twitter did give me a laugh earlier, so maybe it's worth a listen
"Alarmism." Always my favorite. If you aren't alarmed you are either misinformed or dishonest.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

He does think it's a big deal. That literally the whole point of the entire organization. To find a breakthrough that leads to faster decarbonization.

One that isn’t inconvenient I’m guessing.

Meanwhile solar+storage is affordable. What breakthrough are we talking about?

hobbez
Mar 1, 2012

Don't care. Just do not care. We win, you lose. You do though, you seem to care very much

I'm going to go ride my mountain bike, later nerds.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Is it even worth listening too? Sigh, I'm not surprised Rogan's being his libertarian self.

Edit - I'm sure it'll be repeated constantly that he's not biased because he had "both sides" on his show :jerkbag:

I wouldn’t think many in this thread will get much out of it. A couple emblematic quotes so far include “3 degrees? That seems high, I don’t think I’ve ever heard that” and “Celsius is so tricky for Americans.”

It’s kind of morbidly comedic I guess. If someone didn’t know much about the topic maybe it would be a decent primer

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


I wonder if it's, "we need only breathlessly await earthshattering breakthroughs in carbon sequestration technology and power generation / distribution / storage," as though RCPs don't already have such breakthroughs baked-in at checkpoints along 2030/2040/2050

Like, hell yeah, bring it on, it's no surprise whatsoever to anyone who has read economic impact and mitigation working group summaries that we need dramatically increased excess generation capacity in coming decades. A lot.

Preaching to the choir.

Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Feb 16, 2022

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


VideoGameVet posted:

One that isn’t inconvenient I’m guessing.

Meanwhile solar+storage is affordable. What breakthrough are we talking about?

At this point, the ability to scale and quickly deploy while it keeping affordable even for developing countries. It's not one specific breakthrough.

Battery Storage is the one that comes to mind off the top of my head.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

VideoGameVet posted:

One that isn’t inconvenient I’m guessing.

Meanwhile solar+storage is affordable. What breakthrough are we talking about?

Again, outside of South Australia (which is still part of a country burning a ton of coal and gas) it hasn't proven itself. I'll believe it when its actually deployed somewhere with a much more significant footprint.

And I figure if it was, Germany would already be doing it rather than doubling down on gas and coal. Solar + Storage is not going to be the end all solution. Also the idea that the only energy solutions that can solve climate change need to be cheap reeks of "Capitalism can save us on the cheap, no need to actually significantly invest in low carbon energy!"

I just have zero faith in energy storage and renewables alone being capable of offset the sheer gigajoules of fossil energy we continue to burn more and more of. Renewables with something like fission backing it? Sure.

CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 23:08 on Feb 16, 2022

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

The very argument they make against renewables, that 80%+ would be economically unlikely, is proven wrong by South Australia and other locations.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


VideoGameVet posted:

The very argument they make against renewables, that 80%+ would be economically unlikely, is proven wrong by South Australia and other locations.

I'm not following, what may you quote the part you are disputing?

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I'm not following, what may you quote the part you are disputing?

The JavaScript in that article prevents me from copypasta the 80% quote.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


VideoGameVet posted:

The JavaScript in that article prevents me from copypasta the 80% quote.

I see what you're saying but given your example with South Australia... Yea, it's wealthy with a highly motivated and educated population. That should be to no ones surprise. It's about developing countries in places like Africa that are facing the difficulty getting 80%+ renewables.

PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Is it even worth listening too?

surely as a podcast thats worth millions, Rogan has a team of interns that do high quality transcipts?

that way you can read it multiple times even before a times 2 or 4 speed listenthrough.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Thug Lessons posted:

I regret to inform you this is not the slam-dunk you think it is. While the 2100 sea-level rise projections have been revised slightly upward, but the subject here is 2050 sea-level rise projections. Those have actually been revised downward. If you don't believe me, here's the graph from the Rahmstorf article you linked:



I might make a longer response to this later, but I just wanted to get that out there.

When you get back, why did you use the term slightly? If dig into this article which is linked from the original report Sea level in the 5th IPCC report

quote:

Higher projections than in the past

To those who remember the much-discussed sea-level range of 18-59 cm from the 4th IPCC report, it is clear that the new numbers are far higher, both at the low and the high end. But how much higher they are is not straightforward to compare, given that IPCC now uses different time intervals and different emissions scenarios. But a direct comparison is made possible by table 13.6 of the report, which allows a comparison of old and new projections for the same emissions scenario (the moderate A1B scenario) over the time interval 1990-2100(*). Here the numbers:

AR4: 37 cm (this is the standard case that belongs to the 18-59 cm range).
AR4+suisd: 43 cm (this is the case with “scaled-up ice sheet discharge” – a questionable calculation that was never validated, emphasised or widely reported).
AR5: 60 cm.

We see that the new estimate is about 60% higher than the old standard estimate, and also a lot higher than the AR4 attempt at including rapid ice sheet discharge.

The low estimates of the 4th report were already at the time considered too low by many experts – there were many indications of that (which we discussed back then), including the fact that the process models used by IPCC greatly underestimated the past observed sea-level rise. It was clear that those process models were not mature, and that was the reason for the development of an alternative, semi-empirical approach to estimating future sea-level rise. The semi-empirical models invariably gave much higher future projections, since they were calibrated with the observed past rise.

I am however unconvinced that the IPCC or other scientists aren't accounting for various "extrema". They are indeed.

vorebane
Feb 2, 2009

"I like Ur and Kavodel and Enki being nice to people for some reason."

Wrong Voter amongst wrong voters
https://news.slashdot.org/story/22/02/11/220246/us-nuclear-power-plants-contain-dangerous-counterfeit-parts-report-finds

This is what I'm mad about recently. The best thing I think I can say here is the relevant workers get tested for radiation to hell and back and they're still at lower exposure than the general population, but there is certainly too many possibilities of uneven exposure for me to say 'these dumbasses sabotaged nuclear power plants for profit, and lower exposure than the rest of the populace is the best they could do'

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

vorebane posted:

https://news.slashdot.org/story/22/02/11/220246/us-nuclear-power-plants-contain-dangerous-counterfeit-parts-report-finds

This is what I'm mad about recently. The best thing I think I can say here is the relevant workers get tested for radiation to hell and back and they're still at lower exposure than the general population, but there is certainly too many possibilities of uneven exposure for me to say 'these dumbasses sabotaged nuclear power plants for profit, and lower exposure than the rest of the populace is the best they could do'

Must be really good counterfeits since there isn't an overabundance of US nuclear plants having critical failures.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I am however unconvinced that the IPCC or other scientists aren't accounting for various "extrema". They are indeed.

It's the last paragraph in particular that applies more broadly to extrema -- my apologies if that's what you mean by this.

jeeves
May 27, 2001

Deranged Psychopathic
Butler Extraordinaire


This thread over the last few pages.


edit - here's the source of the rad statue.

edit edit jesus gently caress that was done in 2011

jeeves fucked around with this message at 03:47 on Feb 17, 2022

PIZZA.BAT
Nov 12, 2016


:cheers:


Kalli posted:

Seeing the synopsis for the episode pop up on twitter did give me a laugh earlier, so maybe it's worth a listen

my dad bought me that book about five months ago. i managed to get a few chapters in and had to give up because he was just refusing to make a coherent point or do anything but spout off unrelated facts that never seemed to go anywhere. i knew i was in for a trip when in the foreword claimed that the phrase ‘climate denier’ was selected on purpose so people would mentally associate it with ‘holocaust denier’. like he dropped that in a single sentence, never said anything to back it up, and then proceeded to never mention it again

PIZZA.BAT
Nov 12, 2016


:cheers:


hobbez posted:

I wouldn’t think many in this thread will get much out of it. A couple emblematic quotes so far include “3 degrees? That seems high, I don’t think I’ve ever heard that” and “Celsius is so tricky for Americans.”

It’s kind of morbidly comedic I guess. If someone didn’t know much about the topic maybe it would be a decent primer

yeah he dedicated several pages in his book to explaining the difference between fahrenheit, celsius, and kelvin and how it relates to the projection models you see and then… nothing. he just moves on to the next topic at random and you’re left thinking, ‘what the gently caress was the point of bringing any of that up!?’

if there’s any interest i guess i could pick it back up and do a let’s read for this thread. i feel like if i had an audience sharing my frustration i could power through more of it

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Potato Salad posted:

It's the last paragraph in particular that applies more broadly to extrema -- my apologies if that's what you mean by this.

From the "Sea level in the 5th IPCC report" article correct?

Anyway, it looks like the models used to project estimated sea level rise are still being developed and I agree that the IPCC has under estimated the amount of sea level rise. That said, despite scary headlines surrounding things like methane emissions or whatever else in the long run climate scientists at a macro level the models are accurate.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



jeeves posted:



This thread over the last few pages.


edit - here's the source of the rad statue.

edit edit jesus gently caress that was done in 2011

Yeah, because 2011 is when Dark Souls was first released

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I see what you're saying but given your example with South Australia... Yea, it's wealthy with a highly motivated and educated population. That should be to no ones surprise. It's about developing countries in places like Africa that are facing the difficulty getting 80%+ renewables.

This is moving the goal posts. Africa has considerably less electrical use per capita than S. Australia and decentralized solar could solve more than the climate issues there.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

vorebane posted:

https://news.slashdot.org/story/22/02/11/220246/us-nuclear-power-plants-contain-dangerous-counterfeit-parts-report-finds

This is what I'm mad about recently. The best thing I think I can say here is the relevant workers get tested for radiation to hell and back and they're still at lower exposure than the general population, but there is certainly too many possibilities of uneven exposure for me to say 'these dumbasses sabotaged nuclear power plants for profit, and lower exposure than the rest of the populace is the best they could do'

The US Nuclear industry is it's own worse enemy.

I say that as a SoCal electrical rate payer hit by high rates due to the incompetence in breaking the SONGS plant and the haphazard decommissioning of the same.

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Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


VideoGameVet posted:

This is moving the goal posts. Africa has considerably less electrical use per capita than S. Australia and decentralized solar could solve more than the climate issues there.

How is this moving goal posts? And Africa's electricity demand is only expected to grow as they industrialize.

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