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Sinteres posted:Trying to anyway. Erdogan's been doing the frenemy dance with Putin for a while, and outright selling weapons to kill a bunch of Russians, even in a defensive war, might put Erdogan's own projects at risk elsewhere. Or he might decide this is the perfect opportunity to gently caress Putin over while he's otherwise occupied, who knows. I’m basing that on the recent deal between Ukraine and Turkey, where Ukraine received a licence to build Bayraktars on its soil. With recent economic turmoil in Turkey on top of that, I would speculate Erdogan finds the idea of multibillion dollar (paid in dollars or euro) sale of drones, transport vehicles, and other its military originals to be quite compelling.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:51
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CommieGIR posted:As far as I can tell, the Ukrainians have not shelled back at all. That's kind of been the issue with the LNR/DNR attempts to frame shelling as Ukrainian. It apparently has not happened. I did not realize that, yikes
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Feb 21, 2022 23:51
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aphid_licker posted:Given the constant shelling on the line of contact it seems like a matter of time until one of the official Russian peacekeepers eats some shrapnel. Unless the Ukrainians intend to just never respond to shelling again, or the inofficial Russian troops stop shelling Ukrainian lines. Both of which seems unlikely. So this is going to deteriorate within days, not weeks, right? I'd say hours. Following procedure you'd need the Federation Council to ratify today's decrees tomorrow (in ~8 hours). We might see some skirmishing but a major offensive might not begin until tomorrow evening local time. That is, unless as you intuited the Ukrainians offer something in terms of response (kinetic or rhetoric) that the Russians can construe as a way to eschew the need to follow procedure. Either way there's no diplomatic off-ramp; either Ukraine capitulates by ceding sovereignty over whatever lines Russia ends up demarcating, or they will be forced to fight back.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:52
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mightygerm posted:When I was looking into this, it seemed like conscripts are mostly relegated to logstical roles while the maneuver units have the professional soliders. This is correct. Majority of what’s at the borders of Ukraine, or in the country by now, should be contract troops.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:53
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Majorian posted:Well, but it’s not like there are many North Atlantic countries left to join, though. Ukraine and Georgia are no-goes, Finland and Sweden are probably going to still stay neutral for the time being, and…that’s kind of it. Any thoughts on Putins declaration to target Ukrainian citizens?
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Feb 21, 2022 23:54
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BoldFace posted:Nazis weren't good guys either, but they helped Finland fend off the soviets back when rest of the world turned their backs. i, uh, wouldn't go that far Despera posted:Yeah the primary drive for this conflict is NATO and not Russian Imperialism the primary drive for this conflict seems to be that putin wants a foreign policy win, partially for domestic reasons and partially for legacy reasons. his attitude is that the "we don't like russia" club shouldn't expand further, and he's willing to take extreme measures to do that. those measures are *not nice*, but the basic point about the "we don't like russia" club isn't that unreasonable. in principle, some kind of finlandisation agreement could almost certainly have been reached over ukraine, but NATO (well, the US so by extension NATO) is not interested in that, partially because it'd be a diplomatic loss for them and partially because a situation where russia is overtly threatening strengthens their position as people like russia less, making the "we don't like russia" club look more appealing. this, though, was very predictable and the russians must've seen it coming. they've decided to escalate regardless, which indicates that they're driving at something else here.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:54
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LionArcher posted:So what's the general wisdom of the thread of what the US should do? I'm just curious. Personally, I'm in the let's not do another ground war camp. I don’t want to speak for everyone, but I think thread consensus is that US should do what it said it will do - sanction Russian elites, energy sector, and other exposed areas.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:54
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aphid_licker posted:I did not realize that, yikes And the Russian proxies also thoroughly hosed up their false flag attempts. poo poo would be hot right now if anything had stuck.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:55
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Despera posted:Any thoughts on Putins declaration to target Ukrainian citizens? I haven’t seen such a declaration, although I have had a busy day.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:55
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Flavahbeast posted:I'm guessing the pipeline only goes if Russia seizes more territory they didn't already occupy, with bigtime loss of life (which is still pretty likely imo) Nord Stream 2 has been dead since the last elections. The Greens hate it and if Olaf had given the final greenlight, there would have been a non-zero chance of Germany's new three party coalition simply detonating Ole Olaf is probably secretly relieved he now has a good excuse to stomp that project dead "Putin made me do it" and all that. This is our new foreign minister in an article from last year, telling everyone she doesn't want Nord Stream 2 to go ahead.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:56
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Majorian posted:I haven’t seen such a declaration, although I have had a busy day. That was a part of his speech, where he confirmed the letter we did discuss in the thread yesterday, more or less.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:56
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/DavidLawler10/status/1495891830239645697?s=20&t=YsWfWfoNmVYB5RG12QBLjQ Yeah if anyone had doubts of what response the West was going to give, I think this is starting to clarify it. Ukraine is pretty much on it's own here, all they're going to get is a pat on the back and best wishes
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Feb 21, 2022 23:57
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/DavidLawler10/status/1495891830239645697?s=20&t=YsWfWfoNmVYB5RG12QBLjQ This is ridiculous. Why are they now being ambiguous about this?
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Feb 21, 2022 23:57
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zelenskij pretty much has to respond to this with force or face a coup, doesn't he?
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Feb 21, 2022 23:58
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/DavidLawler10/status/1495891830239645697?s=20&t=YsWfWfoNmVYB5RG12QBLjQ I don’t like this, but it’s not a surprise by any means.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:58
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Majorian posted:I haven’t seen such a declaration, although I have had a busy day. Putin implied Russia has their List, probably much like the US had for Iraq that they made a playing cards game out.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:58
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V. Illych L. posted:i, uh, wouldn't go that far Russia is doing a great job of showing why it’s a good thing to be in the “we don’t like Russia” club.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:58
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HonorableTB posted:This is ridiculous. Why are they now being ambiguous about this? Because it's a meaningful distinction.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That was a part of his speech, where he confirmed the letter we did discuss in the thread yesterday, more or less. Well, that’s awful if that’s the case. Putin is a monster, you’ll get no arguments from me on it. I’ll read his remarks when I have a chance, but I believe you.
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Feb 21, 2022 23:59
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HonorableTB posted:This is ridiculous. Why are they now being ambiguous about this? probably they still expect Putin to invade government held territory and are trying to give him an out before people start dying in huge numbers
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Feb 21, 2022 23:59
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Also, shoutout to the (probably) P-3 that flew out of Sigonella Naval Air Station in Italy and is drawing penises because it knows so many people are checking the flight trackers
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Feb 22, 2022 00:00
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Russia is doing a great job of showing why it’s a good thing to be in the “we don’t like Russia” club. it's not, though, is the point, NATO pretty clearly makes the world a worse place. there can be a conflict without any good guys!
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Feb 22, 2022 00:01
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HonorableTB posted:This is ridiculous. Why are they now being ambiguous about this? Russia’s plan for this exact moment is to see where the US will blink, if at all. Massive Russian forces movements into already occupied Donbas legally constitutes invasion, but is regardless the last line in what could ever be considered the status quo. This is the last poke and “what you gonna do about it” possible
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Feb 22, 2022 00:01
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V. Illych L. posted:i, uh, wouldn't go that far I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but please do consider whether if Ukraine wanted to be “finlandized”, or if it gets to have a say in how it goes about its life in principle.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:01
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CommieGIR posted:Russia could invade Ukraine tomorrow and NATO, EU, and US would do nothing. Yeah once again the entire reason that Ukraine isn't already in NATO is because it's obvious Putin was going to do some poo poo and NATO 100% does not want to actually defend Ukraine if he did. NATO isn't going to add anyone that is going to make them actually put troops on the ground.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:01
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V. Illych L. posted:the primary drive for this conflict seems to be that putin wants a foreign policy win, partially for domestic reasons and partially for legacy reasons. his attitude is that the "we don't like russia" club shouldn't expand further, and he's willing to take extreme measures to do that. those measures are *not nice*, but the basic point about the "we don't like russia" club isn't that unreasonable. in principle, some kind of finlandisation agreement could almost certainly have been reached over ukraine, but NATO (well, the US so by extension NATO) is not interested in that, partially because it'd be a diplomatic loss for them and partially because a situation where russia is overtly threatening strengthens their position as people like russia less, making the "we don't like russia" club look more appealing. You're speaking of a Finlandization model, and NATO/the US being not interested in such a model, but what about the Ukrainians? Does it matter at all whether Ukrainians would agree to such a deal? Because I get the distinct impression that they wouldn't agree. Are you saying the US and Russia could and should have just decided on their own to Finlandize Ukraine?
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Feb 22, 2022 00:02
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Majorian posted:Well, that’s awful if that’s the case. Putin is a monster, you’ll get no arguments from me on it. I’ll read his remarks when I have a chance, but I believe you. The short version is some insane rambling that they have a list of “Ukrainians who brought “democracy” into the country”, who will get what they deserve. I think Russia Today YT channel has the speech in English, but warning - it’s rather unhinged and rambling. I definitely don’t recommend it as a background material.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:03
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Interfax News (Russian AP equivalent) reporting two columns of armored vehicles inside the DPR https://www.interfax.ru/world/823559 Interfax posted:Moscow. February 22. INTERFAX.RU - A large number of armored vehicles were seen on the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).
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Feb 22, 2022 00:03
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buglord posted:When I was reading this thread last night I noticed that there was a difference between Russian conscripts and private soldiers. Both seem Russia sourced, but private soldiers are paid better and are seemingly treated better? Are conscripts the ones that don’t get much equipment, get hazed into suicide, get their pay skimmed from higher ups so on? Or do both types of troops get that. Sorry if this is off topic, I’ll take it elsewhere. I just kept mocking the distinction here. Conscripts are drafted at 18 (or usually when they drop out or finish higher education) and spend one year in the force, which is not much time to make a proper soldier so they are mostly used as free workforce. Army prefers not to use them in action because of reputation/media risks, they remember Chechnya. Due to the nature of draft (people generally dont want to be there and lose a year of youth slaving on some general summer house), there is a rich culture of hazing (dedovshina) and there are regular incidents of conscripts dyimg of negligence or going mad and shooting up their comrades. "Contractors" are the ones who signed for it - usually recruiters swarm around draftees at the end of their term with offers. They sign for 2 years and upwards and actually see action - Syria, etc. They are professional army so everyone understands why they are there, so the amount of poo poo on base is less. Then there are mercenaries - Wagner group and friends. Formally illegal but sanctioned, the pay is much better but you certainly go to participate in war crimes and may end up abandoned by mother Russia if needed. Favourite destination for former volunteers that participated in the Ukrainian events.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I don’t want to speak for everyone, but I think thread consensus is that US should do what it said it will do - sanction Russian elites, energy sector, and other exposed areas. Yes, but.... FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/DavidLawler10/status/1495891830239645697?s=20&t=YsWfWfoNmVYB5RG12QBLjQ Letting Putin unilaterally declare the regions as new countries is sort of par for the course, similar to letting China declare that Taiwan is part of them as long as they don't act on it. Allowing Russia to actively take steps to concretize that unilateral declaration is a whole other matter entirely, regardless of whether troops had previously been entering the region or not. It might make sense in the short term for the sake of easing tensions, but there really should be some consequences to this eventually. Aramis fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 00:04
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but please do consider whether if Ukraine wanted to be “finlandized”, or if it gets to have a say in how it goes about its life in principle. the election of zelenskij in the first place suggests a desire for at least some kind of relation with russia. right now, though, of course that's not possible. i suspect that the ukrainians like being a front for what looks like a very nasty proxy war less than the prospect of forced neutrality, though
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Feb 22, 2022 00:04
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V. Illych L. posted:zelenskij pretty much has to respond to this with force or face a coup, doesn't he? He can’t fold, but what response will count as sufficient remains to be seen.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:05
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Majorian posted:Well, that’s awful if that’s the case. Putin is a monster, you’ll get no arguments from me on it. I’ll read his remarks when I have a chance, but I believe you. Good thing you spent all that effort defending a monster from charges of being monsterous
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Feb 22, 2022 00:05
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https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1495894181759311879
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Feb 22, 2022 00:06
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https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1495896613386133512?s=20&t=uywEM0OjfoIzTIHgEYBOcQ All US State Department personnel in Ukraine evacuated to Poland
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Feb 22, 2022 00:08
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V. Illych L. posted:it's not, though, is the point, NATO pretty clearly makes the world a worse place. there can be a conflict without any good guys! I agree there aren’t any good guys here but I think most citizens and governments would rather be like Estonia or Romania right now and not like Ukraine.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:08
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V. Illych L. posted:the election of zelenskij in the first place suggests a desire for at least some kind of relation with russia. right now, though, of course that's not possible. Zelenskyi, in my opinion, was more of a vote for peace and internal normalisation, rather than of external balance or Slavic Switzerland. As for the latter, we shall see. EU support is close to 70%, NATO support is steadily over 50%, and forced neutrality would mean, in practice, surrendering sovereignty/right to foreign and economic policy to our historian in chief who just had meltdown about Lenin inventing Ukrainian orcs for his Warhammer campaign.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:09
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HonorableTB posted:https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1495896613386133512?s=20&t=uywEM0OjfoIzTIHgEYBOcQ https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1495888307074613251
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Feb 22, 2022 00:09
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Torrannor posted:You're speaking of a Finlandization model, and NATO/the US being not interested in such a model, but what about the Ukrainians? Does it matter at all whether Ukrainians would agree to such a deal? Because I get the distinct impression that they wouldn't agree. Are you saying the US and Russia could and should have just decided on their own to Finlandize Ukraine? i'm confident that NATO, russia and the zelenskij government could've worked out something that would've been broadly acceptable for those three parties, yes
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Feb 22, 2022 00:09
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