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If Soviet occupation hadnt been such a blast maybe we would have never needed NATO. Im generally on the pro democracy side though.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:10
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Zelenskyi, in my opinion, was more of a vote for peace and internal normalisation, rather than of external balance or Slavic Switzerland. obviously the situation is now past the point where such a solution is on the table. my point is just that NATO has been perfectly and predictably happy to see the situation escalate for their own reasons.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:12
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snip
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Feb 22, 2022 00:13
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There are also C-130s and an Osprey hanging around Rzeszów, which is the first bigger city in Poland from the Ukrainian border and close-ish to Lviv.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:13
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I very much wish the 'no way putin would be stupid enough to do that' folks were right
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Feb 22, 2022 00:13
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V. Illych L. posted:i'm confident that NATO, russia and the zelenskij government could've worked out something that would've been broadly acceptable for those three parties, yes I don't think so, not just because NATO can't really compromise on it's essential values but because NATO is only a small element of the tension - Putin's issue is with the concept of a Ukraine that exists as anything other than an extension of greater Russia and there's no middle ground there that's consistent with Ukraine as a sovereign nation (that wants EU integration). e: Putin was also offered talks on conventional arms restrictions. That got rejected out of hand and the Russian position was that nothing was acceptable other than complete acceptance of it's starting position. There was no real negotiation happening here. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 00:14
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HonorableTB posted:All US State Department personnel in Ukraine evacuated to Poland I'm gonna note here that in the outbreak of major hostilities Russia will lock down Ukrainian airspace, so this is their last chance to evacuate by air before that happens. It's not a sign that they expect Russia to occupy Western Ukraine.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:14
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well poo poo
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Feb 22, 2022 00:15
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V. Illych L. posted:i'm confident that NATO, russia and the zelenskij government could've worked out something that would've been broadly acceptable for those three parties, yes you should go back and read the recent list of russian demands and tell us what of those you think were remotely acceptable for anyone not-russia.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:15
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Aramis posted:Yes, but.... It’s frustrating to me personally, but I believe that Russia will escalate soon, and so I optimistically agree with posters saying that this is simply the formal, final off-ramp for Putin, and the last stop of “well, what are you going to do about me” train. Besides, Europe could still sanction. Just wait until EU wakes up, half of member states are going to be incredibly displeased by this development. I do expect them to stay coordinated with the US here though, to be clear.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:16
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V. Illych L. posted:obviously the situation is now past the point where such a solution is on the table. my point is just that NATO has been perfectly and predictably happy to see the situation escalate for their own reasons. Ukraine is not a NATO member and does not currently meet eligibility requirements to join, so I fail to see where they had any part in this. The situation is naked imperialist aggression from Russia against a sovereign state.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:16
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V. Illych L. posted:i'm confident that NATO, russia and the zelenskij government could've worked out something that would've been broadly acceptable for those three parties, yes What arrangement would you imagine to have been satisfactory of Putin’s earlier ultimatum?
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Feb 22, 2022 00:17
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I very much wish the 'no way putin would be stupid enough to do that' folks were right Do what specifically haven't the little green men been in Donbas for over half a decade? They've said they dont plan to take the entire Oblast, I don't see how this is a massive departure from the status quo other than to formalize it. If you have a hostile foreign power occupying territory for 6 years its probably not your territory any more.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:17
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Alchenar posted:I don't think so, not just because NATO can't really compromise on it's essential values but because NATO is only a small element of the tension - Putin's issue is with the concept of a Ukraine that exists as anything other than an extension of greater Russia and there's no middle ground there that's consistent with Ukraine as a sovereign nation (that wants EU integration). this is taking some statements a little too literally, i think. we're still at least a couple of levels of escalation away from all-out existential invasion, which is the logical conclusion of this interpretation (afaik the forces in movement aren't considered sufficient for this anyway)
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Feb 22, 2022 00:18
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https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1495862050320486401 To what should be nobody's surprise, certain countries are drawing red lines as to what are acceptable potential sanctions.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:18
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V. Illych L. posted:obviously the situation is now past the point where such a solution is on the table. my point is just that NATO has been perfectly and predictably happy to see the situation escalate for their own reasons.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:19
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Conspiratiorist posted:https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1495862050320486401 "Now now now, we need to think about how this will impact gas....er, I mean, Ukranians"
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Feb 22, 2022 00:19
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https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1495891341372542988?s=20&t=T5pziJlwRCW7hgkzgo3ALg UN Security Council puts their phones on silent.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:20
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Conspiratiorist posted:https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1495862050320486401 Zelensky should just send WW2 reparations demands to Germany.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:20
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Conspiratiorist posted:I'm gonna note here that in the outbreak of major hostilities Russia will lock down Ukrainian airspace, so this is their last chance to evacuate by air before that happens. I agree that it's not necessarily a sign that the US expects an invasion of western Ukraine. However, I'm fairly confident that the US military could easily get away with blatantly disregarding a Russian-imposed no-fly over the whole of Ukraine for the sake of evacuating civilians, so it's still definitely a noteworthy development.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:20
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V. Illych L. posted:it's not, though, is the point, NATO pretty clearly makes the world a worse place. there can be a conflict without any good guys! I kinda think you don't have the right to make this judgement unless you yourself live in a country with a belligerent neighbor like Russia.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:20
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V. Illych L. posted:i'm confident that NATO, russia and the zelenskij government could've worked out something that would've been broadly acceptable for those three parties, yes Yea maybe NATO could have asked the Ukrainians nicely to willingly become a colony in Tsar Putin’s new Empire.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:21
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/DavidLawler10/status/1495891830239645697?s=20&t=YsWfWfoNmVYB5RG12QBLjQ I find myself thinking Biden should go through with sanctions here. As someone who cut his teeth politically in '02 and '03 against the war this is an uncomfortable thought to have. So, we now have two new "countries". Obviously what happens to them depends a lot on the future. But do we think they will be annexed? Might, say, Belarus actually recognize the new People's Republics? How will non-US allies look at this? What does China think?
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Feb 22, 2022 00:22
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Conspiratiorist posted:https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1495862050320486401 As expected. The usual suspect of Germany, and Italy - which suddenly remembered that 90% of gas it imports comes from Russia. That said, let’s wait for Jupiter to log on, and 10 screaming EE member states ready to veto everything from Brioche bread to road repairs over this.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:22
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V. Illych L. posted:this is taking some statements a little too literally, i think. we're still at least a couple of levels of escalation away from all-out existential invasion, which is the logical conclusion of this interpretation (afaik the forces in movement aren't considered sufficient for this anyway) So it is the logical conclusion (which I'm not convinced is the endgame), but it's really more that the starting point of all this in 2014 had absolutely nothing to do with NATO. NATO is there as an issue, sure, but it isn't even the prime cause of Russian interference in Ukraine.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:23
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HonorableTB posted:Also, shoutout to the (probably) P-3 that flew out of Sigonella Naval Air Station in Italy and is drawing penises because it knows so many people are checking the flight trackers 
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Feb 22, 2022 00:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:What arrangement would you imagine to have been satisfactory of Putin’s earlier ultimatum? formal implementation of the russian interpretation of minsk 2, with modifications (some kind of international force rather than a russian one as guarantor would have to happen, for instance). alternatively, NATO could declare an end to expansion pending [conditions] and a return of the donbass areas to ukraine. some kind of formal penalty would have to be worked out in case of treaty violations from either party. ukraine gets a sweetheart gas contract. idk i'm not an international diplomat, but they resolved the cuban missile crisis where the actual fate of the world was at stake, there could've been more serious engagement in this situation than what was given.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:23
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Aramis posted:I agree that it's not necessarily a sign that the US expects an invasion of western Ukraine. However, I'm fairly confident that the US military could easily get away with blatantly disregarding a Russian-imposed no-fly over the whole of Ukraine for the sake of evacuating civilians, so it's still definitely a noteworthy development. He already signaled they will make no attempts to evacuate American civilians. They're on their own.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:24
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Aramis posted:I agree that it's not necessarily a sign that the US expects an invasion of western Ukraine. However, I'm fairly confident that the US military could easily get away with blatantly disregarding a Russian-imposed no-fly over the whole of Ukraine for the sake of evacuating civilians, so it's still definitely a noteworthy development. That's the kind of thing that accidentally starts a US-Russia shooting war, so I'm betting wouldn't happen.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:24
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Rinkles posted:I kinda think you don't have the right to make this judgement unless you yourself live in a country with a belligerent neighbor like Russia. i literally live in a country with russia as a neighbour
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Feb 22, 2022 00:24
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V. Illych L. posted:idk i'm not an international diplomat How would you handle negotiating with Putin after his speech today?
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Feb 22, 2022 00:25
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I don’t want to speak for everyone, but I think thread consensus is that US should do what it said it will do - sanction Russian elites, energy sector, and other exposed areas. Oh Good. I'm fine with all that. Back to just vibing during a pandemic.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:25
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Count Roland posted:I find myself thinking Biden should go through with sanctions here. As someone who cut his teeth politically in '02 and '03 against the war this is an uncomfortable thought to have. China will definitely not recognise them, that’s a threat to Taiwan policy. The usual suspects will - Belarus, Syria, Cuba, Venezuela, maybe North Korea or something. It’s not a particularly long list for any of the other 4 similar regions. Similarly, I don’t think Russia will ever absorb them.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:25
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V. Illych L. posted:i literally live in a country with russia as a neighbour Dude, you and I are both Norwegian. In no way is our situation remotely comparable to Russia's Eastern European neighbors.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:25
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Conspiratiorist posted:They could, but echoing the smartest thing Biden's ever said in a decade "world war 3 is when Americans and Russians are shooting each other", the US is bending over backwards to avoid an escalation chain with Russia. Yes, I should have been clearer: The noteworthy thing here is just how much leeway the US is giving Russia by pre-emptively doing this, on account of the fact that they don't have to.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:27
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V. Illych L. posted:formal implementation of the russian interpretation of minsk 2, with modifications (some kind of international force rather than a russian one as guarantor would have to happen, for instance). alternatively, NATO could declare an end to expansion pending [conditions] and a return of the donbass areas to ukraine. some kind of formal penalty would have to be worked out in case of treaty violations from either party. ukraine gets a sweetheart gas contract. idk i'm not an international diplomat, but they resolved the cuban missile crisis where the actual fate of the world was at stake, there could've been more serious engagement in this situation than what was given. Yeah, Russia would do none of that, even if given the moon. It would only validate their views that NATO and the EU are pushovers. Anybody openly claiming Russia is going to negotiate in good father after this afternoon's speech is selling something.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:27
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Shes Not Impressed posted:How would you handle negotiating with Putin after his speech today? try to steer the conversation to how prices used to be lower and which buildings where he grew up used to be other things while I wait for there to be more light and he gains coherence.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:27
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V. Illych L. posted:i literally live in a country with russia as a neighbour Then I don't know how the prospect of a NATO-less EE doesn't terrify you given what's happened to Ukraine.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:27
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Solaris 2.0 posted:Yea maybe NATO could have asked the Ukrainians nicely to willingly become a colony in Tsar Putin’s new Empire. this doesn't seem to fit the standard of "broadly acceptable" to either NATO or the zelenskij government and so isn't a terribly charitable reading of the quoted post Shes Not Impressed posted:How would you handle negotiating with Putin after his speech today? the speech isn't that material imo, the main problem is the massive escalation of russian soldiers openly violating ukrainian sovereignty. i honestly don't know how we get back from this, there are far too many moving pieces
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Feb 22, 2022 00:28
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Rinkles posted:Then I don't know how the prospect of NATO-less EE doesn't terrify you given what's happened to Ukraine. Because Norway has Russia as a neighbor, but in no way is our experience with that neighbor anything like Ukraine's or other Eastern European countries'.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:29
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