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freeasinbeer posted:I’m also ready for the comedy option where it’s a repeat of Armenia vs Azerbaijan and a bunch of Russians get btfo by Turkish drones russia has enough soldier to zerg rush though. I think the best case scenario is russia gets worked over so bad they lose the appetite to take poland after.
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Feb 23, 2022 04:13
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freeasinbeer posted:I’m also ready for the comedy option where it’s a repeat of Armenia vs Azerbaijan and a bunch of Russians get btfo by Turkish drones You can bet NATO gave the Ukraine military Stingers along with Javelins with their release of "lethal aid". If Russian Frontal Aviation had a hard time with Strelas and FN-6s, they have yet to go against Stingers.
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Feb 23, 2022 04:14
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ummel posted:Putin is shoring up his flanks and sending a message that successful coups won't be tolerated in strongman slavic world. Belarus and Kazakhstan could have easily been toast if they didn't get significant and relatively fast support from Russia. Ukraine obviously didn't "get the message" after maidan and the slow roll to NATO membership, so now he's pointing out to his other client states that this is what will happen if you don't fall in line. See also: Georgia and South Ossetia, which from a macro view is playing out almost exactly the same as Ukraine is now. So if past is any indication of future, he has absolutely no plans on even taking and holding the entire Ukraine. Possibly just widespread destruction to cement his point, and keeping the "indepedent" oblasts. I'd hesitate to put Kazakhstan in his win category. Like it was a win in so much as he shored up the guy in power.... but definitely creeped him out in terms of who the other faction he was obligated to help crush might have been.
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Feb 23, 2022 04:14
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Young Freud posted:You can bet NATO gave the Ukraine military Stingers along with Javelins with their release of "lethal aid". If Russian Frontal Aviation had a hard time with Strelas and FN-6s, they have yet to go against Stingers. They were pedestal mounted Stingers rather than full MANPADS.
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Feb 23, 2022 04:19
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freeasinbeer posted:I’m also ready for the comedy option where it’s a repeat of Armenia vs Azerbaijan and a bunch of Russians get btfo by Turkish drones My money's on Russia having answers to those drones, partially because I don't think they'd be going forward with this after seeing them in use against Armenia and the Syrian government if they thought it was a huge danger, but tbf plenty of wars have been fought with overconfident generals or by politicians who don't listen to the generals. If nothing else, Russia might have a better idea of where the drones are operated from, and have the ability to target those areas with missiles. If Russia actually appeared to be losing in any significant battlefield sense, I'd really start worrying about indiscriminate missile bombardment of Ukranian cities on top of that though. I don't think Armenia had access to the S-400, but nobody really knows if it's a paper tiger or not. It's been activated in Syria, but hasn't really been used, so  Jst0rm posted:russia has enough soldier to zerg rush though. I think the best case scenario is russia gets worked over so bad they lose the appetite to take poland after. Russia isn't attacking Poland regardless of what happens, come on.
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Feb 23, 2022 04:20
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Young Freud posted:You can bet NATO gave the Ukraine military Stingers along with Javelins with their release of "lethal aid". If Russian Frontal Aviation had a hard time with Strelas and FN-6s, they have yet to go against Stingers. They have been receiving a bunch of Javelins and stingers over the past couple of days. https://monch.com/ukraine-receives-stingers-and-javelins/ and already had over a 1000 at the beginning of this month. So that means outside US/UK that seem to have about the highest know number of javelins in the world at the moment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FGM-148_Javelin#Operators Could be one of the reasons Russia is mostly seeming to be quite hesitant at the moment. Mostly shelling. They could cause a lot of issues for Russian armor and moral of their troops.
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Feb 23, 2022 04:33
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The big issue is that Russian arty will clobber. I mean even without helis and poo poo this isn't the Russians vs Afghanistan where the hills and Taliban just can't be arty'd. The ukranians will suffer heavy shelling and be unable to deploy heavy arty effectively in large numbers. Counter battery fire from Russia will be a huge danger to any large movements. .
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Feb 23, 2022 04:38
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The UK also supplied a shitton of NLAWs, but none of those weapons will matter if the front is plastered with artillery followed up by aerial bombing.
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Feb 23, 2022 04:41
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Young Freud posted:If Russian Frontal Aviation had a hard time with Strelas and FN-6s, they have yet to go against Stingers. Afghanistan.
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Feb 23, 2022 04:48
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dr_rat posted:They have been receiving a bunch of Javelins and stingers over the past couple of days. Definitely true. T-90s can "supposedly", on paper, defeat these with their APS system. However: 1) Never tested in real combat against a Javelin 2) Photos so far have shown mostly older T-80s rolling in, not many T-90s. While some T-80s have been upgraded/modernized, it's unclear how many actually have an effective APS. And even if they do, it was never tested against Javelins. 3) While new T-14 Armatas are designed to go against both TOW and Javelin, they are way behind schedule due to money issues, and won't see action for another decade. Very unlikely they'll roll tanks in first anywhere. If this goes beyond Donbas, it will only be airforce and artillery for a long time. Hope is Putin is slow-rolling this to avoid an actual direct confrontation. An image of a burning tank will not be taken lightly at home at all. For now the Russian media is still in denial that anything serious will happen. Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 05:00 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 04:53
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Rad Russian posted:Definitely true. T-90s can "supposedly", on paper, defeat these with their APS system. However: did we give them any aa missles?
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Feb 23, 2022 05:00
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Jst0rm posted:did we give them any aa missles? Stingers on things*. As well as the baltics giving them actual man pads. *Think humvee with stingers on top. We don’t really have any intermediate AA that I think we’d be comfortable handing over and strategic stuff is also probably off the table. Western doctrine is to use Air Force for that role, but the Ukrainian Air Force is way out numbered.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:03
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Jst0rm posted:did we give them any aa missles? Those would be hard to do without putting US/NATO forces in like we've done in the Baltics. You need a whole base/installation of equipment to operate modern anti-air and it takes years to fully deploy. Ukraine does not have modern AA capabilities and their aircraft are about 50x SU-27/25 jets, two+ generations behind what Russia has. Russia has around 400 newer gen fighters alone (SU-35, 34, and 30). No chance to challenge this, especially if Russia rolls in their own S-400 AA. Ukraine has many times asked for AA help but so far NATO has been reluctant to come in and assist in this build-out, as that would be seen as a huge escalation vs just mailing in packages of Javelins and helmets. Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 05:11 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 05:06
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Jst0rm posted:russia has enough soldier to zerg rush though. I think the best case scenario is russia gets worked over so bad they lose the appetite to take poland after.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:08
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Rad Russian posted:Ukraine has many times asked for AA help but so far NATO has been reluctant to come in and assist in this build-out, as that would be seen as a huge escalation vs just mailing in packages of Javelins and helmets. Didn't the US give/sell them a modern early warning radar though?
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Feb 23, 2022 05:13
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Guardian just did a round up the British newspapers front cover stories on this. Surprisingly a few of the more right wing populists ones like the Daily Express and Mirror were calling for the UK to be going harder with the sanctions: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/feb/23/grab-him-by-the-roubles-how-the-papers-covered-the-threat-of-war-in-ukraine Hope if that ends up being the popular sentiment in the UK, the Government does actually going in harder with freezing oligarch cash/property.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:13
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Dante80 posted:Afghanistan. Afghanistan was more than 30 years ago. Anyone who was flying for the Soviet Union in all that is no longer flying at all. It may as well be a brand new experience. Rad Russian posted:Definitely true. T-90s can "supposedly", on paper, defeat these with their APS system. However: There's video of Russian T-90s with Arena APS getting wrecked by TOWs in Syria. Active Protection Systems haven't fulfilled the promise that the Russians hope, they still need dismounted infantry to handle ATGM teams.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:15
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my uncle works at west point and he said that moldova's going to be the winner
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Feb 23, 2022 05:18
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Trump posted:Didn't the US give/sell them a modern early warning radar though? US approved radar systems delivery for Ukraine in January this year, however, this was done too late to be delivered and installed for what's going on now. Unless there was something else before that I don't recall. These won't really give you AA capabilities though, just a warning.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:20
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Young Freud posted:There's video of Russian T-90s with Arena APS getting wrecked by TOWs in Syria. Active Protection Systems haven't fulfilled the promise that the Russians hope, they still need dismounted infantry to handle ATGM teams. I'll agree that it's most likely Russia overhyped the capabilities. However, I wouldn't count Syria as a true test as these were manned by untrained Syrian crews who had been sent into combat in these freshly delivered tanks without adequate experience operating them. It is unknown whether they actually knew how to use the APS capabilites correctly. No real-world footage of professional crew T-90 vs TOW/Javelin yet as far as I know. Most likely overhyped though, still. Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 05:30 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 05:27
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Biden admitting that the sanctions will raise gas prices in the US seems like a very bad political move. Domestically it's a massive own goal because it will let Republicans run on the accurate message that Biden made your life harder to defend a country you've never been to. And it will make repealing those sanctions a more popular domestic policy. It's setting the sanctions up to fail. The whole idea behind sanctions is that they're a thing we can do to hurt people in countries we don't like with no cost to us. But these sanctions will have a cost to us. It's defeating the point of sanctions.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:27
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I am not familiar with the topic of modern antitank weapons and their countermeasures, but found this while googling and it's pretty interesting altogether: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebast...sh=3ddda91e65e9 Seems like Russians are experimenting with several things, including just soldering some armor bars on top of the tank.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:31
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Rad Russian posted:These won't really give you AA capabilities though, just a warning. I know, but competent air surveillance combined with stingers could prove useful.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:35
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I've read several of the usual bad faith sources talk about the US appeasement of Putin and how consecutive US Presidents and Western leaders enabled Putin by now doing something harder whether in 2008 or 2014 or any of the other times he did something lovely. I don't disagree with that in spirit, as we all know that sanctions and stern statements of concern don't really hurt most countries these days to deter their course, or at least the elites they're intended to, rather it's the population that overwhelmingly suffers. I'm curious what clear and concrete actions any countries or multilateral organizations could've taken aside from direct military action against him earlier that would've given him pause if at all?
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Feb 23, 2022 05:42
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Not betray Russia in the 90s and aughts.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:44
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Trump posted:I know, but competent air surveillance combined with stingers could prove useful. Yeah, stingers pretty much made combat helicopters obsolete, just like what javelins did to modern tanks. It would be absolutely stupid for Russia to send either of these in front of Ukraine's forces. Stingers however would be useless against any modern fighter jets, as those operate way too high of an altitude and go way too fast for them to acquire a lock. They are designed to take down helis and low flying support aircraft like SU-24. I would say Ukraine is very well positioned to defend against both helicopters and tanks. Artillery and airstrikes will be an issue. Although somewhat depressing discussing this, hopefully, no one has to use stingers or javelins here.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:45
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Gripweed posted:Biden admitting that the sanctions will raise gas prices in the US seems like a very bad political move. Domestically it's a massive own goal because it will let Republicans run on the accurate message that Biden made your life harder to defend a country you've never been to. And it will make repealing those sanctions a more popular domestic policy. It's setting the sanctions up to fail. This is completely wrong. The whole point of sanctions is not to hurt people in countries with no cost. It's to punish/deter countries while avoiding a war. Biden admitting that sanctions will raise gas prices is just Biden saying what everyone already knows.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:46
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Freezer posted:I am not familiar with the topic of modern antitank weapons and their countermeasures, but found this while googling and it's pretty interesting altogether: Not sure how helpful those will be, the Javelin is tandem-charge meant to defeat reactive armor and add-ons. They might be thinking the Javelin is like a RPG and they're installing slat armor to break or prematurely detonate HEAT. The Javelin's initial charge is designed to detonate on ERA, etc., with the main charge protected from the detonation and continue to travel to impact with the armor's actual surface.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:47
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Fart Amplifier posted:This is completely wrong. The whole point of sanctions is not to hurt people in countries with no cost. It's to punish/deter countries while avoiding a war. What does it mean to "punish a country" that isn't hurting the people in the country?
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Feb 23, 2022 05:49
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Conspiratiorist posted:Not betray Russia in the 90s and aughts. Russia betrayed itself. And taking verbal agreements between high level beaucrats as a treaty or anything such was 100% on Russia. You can put all the blame you want on the US and West for not being nice to Russia, but at the end of the day it is the Russian army who is/has been invading its small neighbours for the past decades.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:50
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Sinteres posted:Russia isn't attacking Poland regardless of what happens, come on. While no one is taking that seriously now, the issue is if Putin decides to push all the way to the Polish, Romanian, and Slovakish borders things will be getting tense for those border guards and incidents may occur.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:53
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Gripweed posted:Biden admitting that the sanctions will raise gas prices in the US seems like a very bad political move. Domestically it's a massive own goal because it will let Republicans run on the accurate message that Biden made your life harder to defend a country you've never been to. And it will make repealing those sanctions a more popular domestic policy. It's setting the sanctions up to fail. I thought the point of sanctions was that they were something that you could do without getting into a shooting conflict, not that they had no cost associated with them.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:53
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Gripweed posted:What does it mean to "punish a country" that isn't hurting the people in the country? When people talk about this it generally means sanctions on people in that countries government or who otherwise have power (in Russia's case the oligarchs). How effective they are as a deterrent and only really have a large affect on the targeted people is debatable. But yeah freezing an oligarchs overseas personal bank account, that really shouldn't affect to much in Russia.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:54
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Dick Ripple posted:Russia betrayed itself. And taking verbal agreements between high level beaucrats as a treaty or anything such was 100% on Russia. You can put all the blame you want on the US and West for not being nice to Russia, but at the end of the day it is the Russian army who is/has been invading its small neighbours for the past decades. I'm not talking just promises of NATO expansion - it's a whole sequence of broken promises and a failed foreign policy to sideline and ignore Russia rather than help them integrate into the new international order, because nobody ever learned what happens when you humiliate a defeated great power and then ignore them. The US guaranteed Yeltsin and Yeltsin handpicked Putin. He's a monster that the West helped create. While I sympathize with the sentiment of focusing on the problem we're dealing with now while it's ongoing, a little self-reflection is called for if we're to learn anything from it.
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Feb 23, 2022 05:58
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Gripweed posted:
higher gas prices is very different than dead Americans or a nuclear war threat
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Feb 23, 2022 06:00
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Twincityhacker posted:I thought the point of sanctions was that they were something that you could do without getting into a shooting conflict, not that they had no cost associated with them. I don't think you're disagreeing with me to any serious extent. There's a reason we put serious and long lasting sanctions on small countries that weren't and don't have significant potential to have big effects on the American economy. Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, etc. We don't like those countries, we want to hurt them, but we don't want to do a war so we put sanctions on them so the people in those countries suffer but no American soldiers die and American citizens aren't effected. Meanwhile, big countries that we don't like, like China, don't get sanctioned. We tried that clever scheme of sanctioning some specific Chinese officials, but we wouldn't put sanctions on the whole country because it would effect our economy too much. So the point of sanctions is to hurt the people in a country we don't like without effecting Americans.
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Feb 23, 2022 06:01
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Gripweed posted:The whole idea behind sanctions is that they're a thing we can do to hurt people in countries we don't like with no cost to us. But these sanctions will have a cost to us. It's defeating the point of sanctions. Unfortunately, it probably won't get to that point without Western countries ostentatiously seizing ownership of properties owned by the regime's oligarchs.
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Feb 23, 2022 06:01
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sticksy posted:I've read several of the use bad faith sources talk about the US appeasement of Putin and how consecutive US Presidents and Western leaders enabled Putin by now doing something harder whether in 2008 or 2014 or any of the other times he did something lovely. I think you need more info for the question. Not just form us but from books etc. By intentionally excluding Russia from the world the US and the EU inadvertently created this crisis. Where Russia's only method of economic growth is to literally take over another country. Britain did nothing against Russia's assassination program, because of the financial ties to the London banking system. After the Soviet Union fell Russia gave preferential economic avenues to the same countries that are in a way allowing this to occur. We like to spin Russia as the pariah State that just can't be helped! But economic loving aid and assistance in transitioning off of gas and oil could have helped Russia more than turning our backs almost completely.
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Feb 23, 2022 06:01
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:By intentionally excluding Russia from the world the US and the EU inadvertently created this crisis.
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Feb 23, 2022 06:04
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Gripweed posted:What does it mean to "punish a country" that isn't hurting the people in the country? I didn't say that you don't hurt the people in the country.
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Feb 23, 2022 06:07
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