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MikeC posted:It's more like what Putin insisted on having all along. A neutral Ukraine without the possibility of NATO troops and weapon systems on its borders. You're right, but if you review his war declaration speech, he self-assuredly says that the professional Russian military will effortlessly execute the mission, and that the threat to the homeland is unimaginable. From that perspective, I am inclined to interpret a freestanding peace offer from the Kremlin as an admission of a problem, and so I'm trying to think if I can come up with alternative explanations to why we're hearing about it.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:08
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"Folks I opened the US to the crippling cyber retaliation we are currently suffering because gosh darn it, it was the right thing to do. We still lost the Ukraine but never the less..."
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Feb 24, 2022 19:08
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Gripweed posted:I mean, the power is still on, the water is still flowing, I'm currently posting online, I haven't noticed any cyberattacks Literally took me one second to google this. Just because it isn't happening to YOU doesn't mean it isn't happening. Like, do you understand how loving stupid an argument that is.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:09
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You're right, but if you review his war declaration speech, he self-assuredly says that the professional Russian military will effortlessly execute the mission, and that the threat to the homeland is unimaginable. From that perspective, I am inclined to interpret a freestanding peace offer from the Kremlin as an admission of a problem, and so I'm trying to think if I can come up with alternative explanations to why we're hearing about it. PR? They think it makes them look better to offer a negotiated peace instead of just blasting the country into submission. And in the unlikely event that the Ukrainians take him up on it, it save them the cost of that blasting.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:10
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Gripweed posted:PR? They think it makes them look better to offer a negotiated peace instead of just blasting the country into submission. And in the unlikely event that the Ukrainians take him up on it, it save them the cost of that blasting. That was the post I initially responded to, this is just another hypothetical scenario in my eyes, the domestic damage control. Vaginaface posted:Earlier this morning the exiled president of Belarus seemed to make a claim for the government and said she's forming a transitional cabinet (source: her Instagram account). I haven't seen this discussed here, but is she going to try to flip this on Lukashenko? I'm afraid that Tsikhanouskaya doesn't have any real leverage remaining inside Belarus - Russians did help Lukashenko to crush it, with dilligence.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:10
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Kaddish posted:Russia has been 'cyber attacking' the West for years with very little cover. Sure, but not all cyberattacks are the same. What Russia has been doing so far is background-noise low-level harassment, which is essentially irrelevant in the scope of this conversation. Another important point here is that it's difficult to accurately express just how lopsided in favor of attackers the CyberSec landscape is. A full-on "hot" cyber war would be absolutely debilitating for all parties involved.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:10
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You're right, but if you review his war declaration speech, he self-assuredly says that the professional Russian military will effortlessly execute the mission, and that the threat to the homeland is unimaginable. From that perspective, I am inclined to interpret a freestanding peace offer from the Kremlin as an admission of a problem, and so I'm trying to think if I can come up with alternative explanations to why we're hearing about it. I'm inclined to think there's something to that, but an alternate explanation could be that occupation is a nightmare and would make the sanctions pressure permanent, so Putin's still looking for an off ramp even at this late date. If he can get what he wanted in the first place without losing a bunch more of his troops, all the better. Of course Ukraine's not at a point where capitulation is likely yet, but the other thing is that if he intends to install a puppet government covering at least part of the country, finding someone who will accept those terms and presenting them as the new Ukrainian government might be part of the plan.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:11
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Mooseontheloose posted:Literally took me one second to google this. Just because it isn't happening to YOU doesn't mean it isn't happening. Like, do you understand how loving stupid an argument that is. Do you understand how loving stupid it is to say that criminals in Russia doing ransomware attacks is the same thing as the Russian government doing cyber attacks against the US?
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Feb 24, 2022 19:11
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Thom12255 posted:https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1496904933014216711 Everyone is focussed on the disarmament portion of this, but what the hell is a “neutral status” when it comes to Putin? He’s a paranoid autocrat who would probably see anything short of active Russian bootlicking as evidence of Western encroachment in need of stamping out.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:11
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Sinteres posted:He certainly shouldn't. He should. Hammer Putin.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:12
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Kaddish posted:Our infrastructure defenses are definitely not adequate. Neither are Russia's (that's an assumption) Burgeoning opportunity for tainted virus-laden punchcards air-dropped over Moscow
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Feb 24, 2022 19:12
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You're right, but if you review his war declaration speech, he self-assuredly says that the professional Russian military will effortlessly execute the mission, and that the threat to the homeland is unimaginable. From that perspective, I am inclined to interpret a freestanding peace offer from the Kremlin as an admission of a problem, and so I'm trying to think if I can come up with alternative explanations to why we're hearing about it. Yeah this combined with a few of the other things we are seeing makes me think the Kremlin was very optimistic about all this and things are not going very well on the ground. Putin was all "Fire and Blood" this week and one day into the invasion he's going "well now let's think about this actually" Seems like their position weakened, and this regime is not known for offers of mercy
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Feb 24, 2022 19:12
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Gripweed posted:Do you understand how loving stupid it is to say that criminals in Russia doing ransomware attacks is the same thing as the Russian government doing cyber attacks against the US? That is the Russian government "doing cyber attacks", the fact that you don't understand that is... interesting.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:12
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Yes, Russia does not accept surrender without installing a new government and dealing with dissidents to enforce those terms
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Feb 24, 2022 19:12
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Aramis posted:Sure, but not all cyberattacks are the same. What Russia has been doing so far is background-noise constant harassment, which is essentially irrelevant in the scope of this conversation. Oh, absolutely a full-scale cyber initiative would be devastating for all sides, no questions. That would also be tantamount, maybe just short of, a shooting war. Gripweed posted:Do you understand how loving stupid it is to say that criminals in Russia doing ransomware attacks is the same thing as the Russian government doing cyber attacks against the US? lol
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Feb 24, 2022 19:13
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That peace "offer" is just grist for the domestic mill. He knows Ukraine won't accept so now that becomes his new justification. Also as someone pointed out, the de-militarized is not the poison pill, it's the "neutral" part.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:13
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Gripweed posted:Do you understand how loving stupid it is to say that criminals in Russia doing ransomware attacks is the same thing as the Russian government doing cyber attacks against the US? You don't know what you're talking about. These are Russian cyberattacks.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:13
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ElrondHubbard posted:Everyone is focussed on the disarmament portion of this, but what the hell is a “neutral status” when it comes to Putin? He’s a paranoid autocrat who would probably see anything short of active Russian bootlicking as evidence of Western encroachment in need of stamping out. In the lead-up to this that was minced thoroughly between diplomats, and the most likely practical implementation he would seek is a rewritten constitution where international organization membership is severely restricted, and that requires majority vote in each Ukrainian province to overturn (so that the Russia-backed proxy regions would hold a veto over it).
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Feb 24, 2022 19:14
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Dapper_Swindler posted:apparently the VDV troops are cut off and stuck in the air port and Ukrainian forces are moving in against them. airbourn only works if you know you can be reinforced quick but they are a couple hundred miles behind the lines so they might be hosed. Vastly underestimating Russian coercive capacity.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:15
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How are u posted:He should. Hammer Putin. You realize there are people living in Russia who aren't Putin, yes? Cyber attacks taking down critical infrastructure hurt them, and projecting Putin onto the entirety of the Russian nation many of us don't consider him to represent as a democratically legitimate leader seems like a mistake. Of course if it could halt the invasion while leading to no other negative consequences it could be worthwhile, but it's both unlikely to halt the war and guaranteed to lead to retaliation, so no I don't think shutting down the power throughout Russia is a moral choice, or a smart one.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:15
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Sinteres posted:You realize there are people living in Russia who aren't Putin, yes? Cyber attacks taking down critical infrastructure hurt them, and projecting Putin onto the entirety of the Russian nation most of us don't consider him to represent as a democratically legitimate leader seems like a mistake. Of course if it could halt the invasion while leading to no other negative consequences it could be worthwhile, but it's both unlikely to halt the war and guaranteed to lead to retaliation, so no I don't think shutting down the power throughout Russia is a moral choice. Oh was "shutting down the power throughout Russia" the only choice Biden has? It's that or nothing?
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Feb 24, 2022 19:16
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i am a moron posted:That is the Russian government "doing cyber attacks", the fact that you don't understand that is... interesting. Literally nothing in that linked article says that the criminals were working at the behest of the Russian government. That you assume they are, based on nothing, is... interesting.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:17
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I'm also really skeptical that anyone could inflict more harm in an all-out "cyber war" (I really hate both of those terms) than the US, but if you know about our SCADA systems and how decentralized and loving insane it all is you probably wouldn't want to take that bet. There's probably other non-SCADA systems that are concerning as well, but defacing websites and ransomware'ing some municipal government is the real-world-war equivalent of flying too far into someones airspace or piloting your boat too close to another country's boat.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:17
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Ukraine v Russia: Putin on the blitz
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Feb 24, 2022 19:17
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CommieGIR posted:
Why not? Says who? Legit question cause afaik I’m not a signatory to any Geneva conventions.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:17
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Hey guys, please try to also spoiler pictures of POWs as technically you are not supposed to share those photos
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How are u posted:Oh was "shutting down the power throughout Russia" the only choice Biden has? It's that or nothing? As I said before, once you start a conflict, you don't get to choose where it ends. How exactly do you think the US should start engaging in cyber attacks against Russia where it won't lead to attacks on critical infrastructure? You're the one who said to hammer Putin, so I assumed you meant something with some real bite to it.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:18
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Sinteres posted:You realize there are people living in Russia who aren't Putin, yes? Cyber attacks taking down critical infrastructure hurt them, and projecting Putin onto the entirety of the Russian nation many of us don't consider him to represent as a democratically legitimate leader seems like a mistake. Of course if it could halt the invasion while leading to no other negative consequences it could be worthwhile, but it's both unlikely to halt the war and guaranteed to lead to retaliation, so no I don't think shutting down the power throughout Russia is a moral choice. At some point, you're at war with a "nation" and not its leader. I strongly doubt Biden orders (public) cyber attacks. But to the extent he does and it affects Russian citizens, my response is going to be "tough poo poo." If Russian citizens are uncomfortable, it's still going to be a drat bit more comfortable than the people of Kharkiv or Kyiv.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:18
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With regards to the airport, all we know is that the Russian troops are being described as airborne. We don't actually know what the means with regards to training and capability. There is a pretty large range in the US military with airborne troops from good to absolutely cream of the crop. No idea about Russia.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:18
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Looks like US sanctions will avoid targeting the Russian energy sector "for now". I guess so there's something left in the back pocket for when Russia double-invades next time.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:18
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Came to read about how hosed up it is that the US invaded Ukraine just to find out kalstrams is a mod. Disappointing. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 24, 2022 19:18
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You're right, but if you review his war declaration speech, he self-assuredly says that the professional Russian military will effortlessly execute the mission, and that the threat to the homeland is unimaginable. From that perspective, I am inclined to interpret a freestanding peace offer from the Kremlin as an admission of a problem, and so I'm trying to think if I can come up with alternative explanations to why we're hearing about it. It's not a peace-offer, it's an offer of unconditional surrender. Basically annexing territory, dismantling the Ukrainian military and turning what remains of Ukraine into a puppet state.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:18
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Gripweed posted:Do you understand how loving stupid it is to say that criminals in Russia doing ransomware attacks is the same thing as the Russian government doing cyber attacks against the US? Is there a subject you're *not* absolutely ignorant of? Go tell the InfoSec thread the Russian government isn't behind ransomware gangs and see what they say. 
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Feb 24, 2022 19:19
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Pook Good Mook posted:At some point, you're at war with a "nation" and not its leader. I strongly doubt Biden orders (public) cyber attacks. But to the extent he does and it affects Russian citizens, my response is going to be "tough poo poo." We're not at war with Russia at all, but the way you seamlessly moved from talking about cyber attacks to suggesting we are shows why it's so dangerous. Also collective punishment is a war crime.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:19
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Shifty Pony posted:Saw someone say that while Johnson has been pretty friendly with the oligarchs' interests, he's also has a long and consistent history of throwing former allies under the bus to save his own skin. Yeah and those ties between the oligarchs and the Tories certainly exist. Johnson would certainly like to distance himself from them at the moment, and has been making noise about how the Russian elites who have poured £2,000,000 into the party are somehow critics of Putin (they are not). However, Labour will have difficulty making much headway with the argument, since they've just had their own donation scandal where China provided their MPs with £500,000 in staffing donations. I'd expect both parties will grumble about it but neither will suffer for it. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/23/oligarchs-funding-tories https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/uk-government-margaret-hodge-david-lammy-conservative-party-liz-truss-b2021624.html https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/uk/uk-parliament-china-firm-gbr-intl/index.html
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Feb 24, 2022 19:19
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You're right, but if you review his war declaration speech, he self-assuredly says that the professional Russian military will effortlessly execute the mission, and that the threat to the homeland is unimaginable. From that perspective, I am inclined to interpret a freestanding peace offer from the Kremlin as an admission of a problem, and so I'm trying to think if I can come up with alternative explanations to why we're hearing about it. Yeah, I think the economic costs are adding up and his oligarchs are starting to get spooked. If he cuts bait now he can easily declare victory, achieve his main objectives, and find a way out from under the current sanctions before too long. It's hosed up that any world leader can pull a stunt like this and probably not face any real repercussions, but well, that's geopolitics - a truly grotesque, sociopathic game. A Buttery Pastry posted:Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances II Better make it more than a memo this time; Budapest I wasn't legally binding in any way. Make it a treaty. (or at least something that's a treaty in all but name, if Congress won't ratify)
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Feb 24, 2022 19:20
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No matter what state Ukraine is left in at the end of this - demilitarized "neutrality", installed puppet government, militarily occupied - this has to be a permanent break with the Ukrainian people. Even if they end up under pro-Russian leaders or don't fight an insurgency, anti-Russian sentiment is bound to be hardened. There's no long-term peace to be had with the Ukrainians themselves, which means either a West Bank style "mow the lawn" campaign every ten years or else they'll always be looking for a way to get back.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:20
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Sinteres posted:As I said before, once you start a conflict, you don't get to choose where it ends. How exactly do you think the US should start engaging in cyber attacks against Russia where it won't lead to attacks on critical infrastructure? You're the one who said to hammer Putin, so I assumed you meant something with some real bite to it. I think that's on you for assuming I desire to collectively punish the Russian people. I'm not a cyber-expert by any means, but I imagine there are a wide variety of options that can put the hurt on Putin, his cronies, and his government's ability to effectively prosecute this imperial war of aggression and expansion that also won't cause the Russian people to freeze to death.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:20
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Rust Martialis posted:Is there a subject you're *not* absolutely ignorant of? I'm going off the linked article, which says they're just done by criminals in Russia.
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Feb 24, 2022 19:20
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Cyber attacks aren't deployed live anyways, they are mined months in advance https://www.sentinelone.com/labs/hermetic-wiper-ukraine-under-attack/ That poo poo was deployed back in December; this offensive was always going to happen, and they are absolutely gov't actors Victis fucked around with this message at 19:24 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 19:21
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Gripweed posted:I'm going off the linked article, which says they're just done by criminals in Russia. Literally the first sentence: "Researchers say more than $400 million worth of crypto-currency payments went to groups "highly likely to be affiliated with Russia"."
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Feb 24, 2022 19:22
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