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DeliciousPatriotism posted:Russia will do their best to Groznyfy Kiev. Is insurgents loving supply lines still even a possibility in these days?
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Feb 26, 2022 06:07
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buglord posted:Ukraines successes are pretty heartening, but yeah I wouldn't bet any money on them surviving very long. Absolutely love to be wrong about that, though. Wait, did I just read the quoted person saying "Ukraine is bad terrain for an insurgency?" Not only were the insurgents in Ukraine fighting Nazis from 1941 to 1944, but there were insurgents that fought the Soviets in Ukraine until the 1950s.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:07
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wins32767 posted:So here's something I don't get. The mechanized attack on Kiev came down from Belorussia down the closest road, the one that took it past Chernobyl. That road goes along the Tetereiv river and the first bridge is at Ivankiv. From there, looking at google maps, you can tell by the road closures that the Russians took basically a straight shot to Kiev from there. The total distance is ~180km, which they've managed in 2 days. That says that the bridge wasn't blown and that no meaningful forces were put in front of them to slow them down. I don't get that decision. I guess the Ukrainians want to fight in Kiev? It's a really long single road logistical tether for the Russians to be pushing supplies and reinforcements down, so maybe that's it? The forces actually attacking Kiev in the past day were quite likely the air drops that didn't get destroyed by SAMs.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:08
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Captain Stalin posted:Man, this war is doing to paratroopers what world war 1 did to cavalry. probably tanks too
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Feb 26, 2022 06:08
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ZombieLenin posted:Wait, did I just read the quoted person saying "Ukraine is bad terrain for an insurgency?" Not only were the insurgents in Ukraine fighting Nazis from 1941 to 1944, but there were insurgents that fought the Soviets in Ukraine until the 1950s. I think that speaks more to the Ukrainians than the terrain, which still, isn't good.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:08
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HonorableTB posted:Sent you $15 on Paypal Just sent $26 myself, thank you so much, Poland is really showing its best side for this.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:09
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Captain Stalin posted:Man, this war is doing to paratroopers what world war 1 did to cavalry. Idk, turns out there’s a gulf between blurfing on twitter that you’ve destroyed a countries air defense capability, and the reality of being able to fly transport planes in. Seems some pretty crucial air landings have been challenged today. Any news whether paratroopers actually landed?
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Feb 26, 2022 06:09
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Despera posted:probably tanks too Considering each missile costs as much as a Lamborghini you'd sure hope they would work but Javelins look like they've been frighteningly effective against modern Russian armor. This is going to be one of those conflicts that shift militaries like Yom Kippur did.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:10
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Recoome posted:Any news whether paratroopers actually landed? well those planes came down somewhere
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Feb 26, 2022 06:10
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Sanguinia posted:Their President is Steven Colbert as played by The Rock and their capital city's mayor is a Heavyweight Champion. Maybe NATO SHOULD join Ukraine rather than the other way around. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzLtF_PxbYw&t=24s
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Feb 26, 2022 06:11
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Air raid sirens going off in Lviv.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:11
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Why the gently caress are military transports in a war zone identifiable on flight aware???
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Feb 26, 2022 06:11
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Mustard Iceman posted:Is insurgents loving supply lines still even a possibility in these days? Yea but there are lots and lots and lots of Russian troops still un-engaged, there's a lot of free resources to cleanse a lot of the population in retaliation for any act of insurgency.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:11
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Lead out in cuffs posted:The forces actually attacking Kiev in the past day were quite likely the air drops that didn't get destroyed by SAMs. I don't think they lifted in that many guys and if they got smashed up at the airport, they're not going to go attack Kiev without any ammo. Charlz Guybon posted:Unless they're outnumbered 10 to 1, defenders who know a city like that well can run rings around invaders. Sure, but if the invaders all have to come down one road and cross one of 2 bridges (without adding a hundred extra KM to the supply route) seems like you'd want to blow the bridges at the minimum.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:12
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Recoome posted:Idk, turns out there’s a gulf between blurfing on twitter that you’ve destroyed a countries air defense capability, and the reality of being able to fly transport planes in. Seems some pretty crucial air landings have been challenged today. Well, define "landing". They're certainly on the ground. Have there been any charities pop up focused on the refugees fleeing the fighting, or should I focus on what's in the charity thread?
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Feb 26, 2022 06:12
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buglord posted:Ukraines successes are pretty heartening, but yeah I wouldn't bet any money on them surviving very long. Absolutely love to be wrong about that, though. Frankly the Ukranian level of success here is heartening and so strange at the same time. Like I know Russia isn't the Soviet Union. They're not a superpower in the way the US is, and they're fighting a nationalist force better armed and equipped than say, the Iraqi army, but it still feels strange to see them getting wins like this. I imagined a Russian invasion to be more 'Iraqi Freedom', where they might get a punch in here or there, but the whole thing would be fundamentally decided almost immediately and any casualties are from asymmetrical warfare. You can look at the US military deaths in 2003 and see two US soldiers in the first day, four in the second (all friendly fire or accidental crashes), a platoon lost near Nasiriyah on the third day, four on the next and so forth. Its a steady clip of deaths, but the numbers are so small that they barely register as a body count. They maxed at ~450 for the whole year. If the IL-76 stuff is true, that is most of the American invasion body count in two planes in as many days. Plus all the hundreds of other KIAs, the destroyed vehicles and everything else. Logically I know that this is what war looks like between two more evenly matched industrial powers, but it is a complete mindfuck when I've grown up thinking of war as 'one side kicks the poo poo out of the other, then they fight asymmetrical guerilla poo poo for decades'.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:12
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Preoptopus posted:Why the gently caress are military transports in a war zone identifiable on flight aware??? That’s what makes me think these might be decoys or drones sent in to eat missiles.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:12
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DeliciousPatriotism posted:Russia will do their best to Groznyfy Kiev. I'm hoping that the some combination of the whole world watching and Putin's desire to capture the heart of Kievan Rus (and not a pile of rubble) keeps him from doing this.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:12
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Grammarchist posted:Somehow this is all going to end with the Russian Communist Party overthrowing Putin. I hear the Bolsheviks aren’t fans of autocracy, orthodoxy and nationalism.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:13
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buglord posted:I'm not sure how I feel about Ukraine taking the insurgency route. It would give Putin the bloody nose he deserves, but I cant think of insurgencies that dont include large amounts of human suffering with a lot of crossfire baked in.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:13
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:can't believe russians can't face sunlight. crazy. Night vision goggles are a huge advantage at night.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:13
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Russia banned from Eurovision. Volkswagen stopped supplying Russian dealers with cars. That includes audi, skoda, bentley, lamborghini and ducati.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:13
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Charlz Guybon posted:Unless they're outnumbered 10 to 1, defenders who know a city like that well can run rings around invaders. It's not unlikely that the Ukrainians are actually outnumbering the Russians in Kyiv IMO, at least in terms of guys with rifles and AT launchers and such. So far the Russians haven't really manage to make decisive use of their airpower it seems like, except in allowing them to advance rapidly when Ukrainian forces haven't stood and fought, so that potential numerical disadvantage might make it very difficult for them to take Kyiv if they can't pull of these decapitation strikes they seem to be attempting. Bar Ran Dun posted:I hear the Bolsheviks aren’t fans of autocracy, orthodoxy and nationalism. The Russian communist party are huge fans of all three of those things.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:14
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Recoome posted:Idk, turns out there’s a gulf between blurfing on twitter that you’ve destroyed a countries air defense capability, and the reality of being able to fly transport planes in. Seems some pretty crucial air landings have been challenged today. Ukraine is reporting that they're still in control of the airport they were likely targeting so ??? Seems like no??? https://twitter.com/betonnaigrashka/status/1497438176796831745?t=GBkafzg1Vz7cL0dCCKjDjg&s=19
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Feb 26, 2022 06:16
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I was sceptical of the “plan” gleaned from wherever yesterday where the Russians would land a stack of forces by Il-76 as using such a large plane is very risky but having two shot down leads a little bit of credence that actually yes, maybe they had a bunch of paratroopers ready to go.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:16
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I'm rooting for Ukraine as hard as most but I'm trying to temper my expectations here. From what I understand Ukraine holding out a week, or two weeks, would be pretty remarkable considering Russian strength. (let alone 'winning' whatever that would mean. If Ukraine won the war it would be such a mind boggling humiliation Putin would be deposed and dead). It's been two days
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Feb 26, 2022 06:17
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BigRoman posted:I'm hoping that the some combination of the whole world watching and Putin's desire to capture the heart of Kievan Rus (and not a pile of rubble) keeps him from doing this. Putin just seems like he can barely contain his anger anymore, the weird staged videos show that. The longer this draws on the more awful it's likely to become.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:17
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Despera posted:probably tanks too The next word in tanks is active protection systems, basically very light self-defence aa that shoots down missiles like Javelin. The idea should work, and Russia has been talking up their homegrown Arena system for a while, but they don't seem to have many (or really, any) actually deployed here. Would have been useful if that money had been spent on those instead of apartments in London. What is very clear is that guided, relatively light AT missiles like Javelin or NLAW do make traditional use of tanks that do not have APS, er, challenging.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:17
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Captain Stalin posted:Man, this war is doing to paratroopers what world war 1 did to cavalry. As a former paratrooper: good.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:17
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A lot of this is making me wonder if Putin maybe originally was just planning for a small incursion to take Donbass and in a last minute brain mush ploy decided to just say "gently caress it" and go for the whole country without giving his forces time to prepare. So much of this has seemed just kludged together in terms of planning.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:17
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Sekenr posted:Russia banned from Eurovision. Volkswagen stopped supplying Russian dealers with cars. That includes audi, skoda, bentley, lamborghini and ducati.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:18
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Recoome posted:I was sceptical of the “plan” gleaned from wherever yesterday where the Russians would land a stack of forces by Il-76 as using such a large plane is very risky but having two shot down leads a little bit of credence that actually yes, maybe they had a bunch of paratroopers ready to go. There were credible reports of about 18 IL-76s taking off from Belarus on the back of yesterday's failed airport assault. Most likely they turned back, but it really did seem like they were preparing to paradrop several thousand troops on Kyiv.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:19
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Caros posted:Like I know Russia isn't the Soviet Union. They're not a superpower in the way the US is, and they're fighting a nationalist force better armed and equipped than say, the Iraqi army, but it still feels strange to see them getting wins like this. I imagined a Russian invasion to be more 'Iraqi Freedom', where they might get a punch in here or there, but the whole thing would be fundamentally decided almost immediately and any casualties are from asymmetrical warfare. There wasn't a superpower feeding Iraq weapons and satellite info on US troop movements. Plus by 2003 Iraq had been under crippling sanctions and fairly regular bombing for over a decade. That said, I think the US would do better than Russia has so far at invading a country like Ukraine, but a big part of the difference in terms of casualty count would almost definitely be actually dominating the skies for an extended period of time and degrading enemy defenses before rushing in. I think the 'actually it's Russia's battle plan to sacrifice large numbers of lives' thing is a bit of a cope that plays into human wave attack bullshit, and they're legitimately facing stiffer resistance than they expected, or Putin made the generals push harder than they knew they should. Maybe Russia will clown on Ukraine over the next few days and we'll get casualty estimates substantially revised downward and it'll look better for them, but right now I don't think they're having a great time of it.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:19
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Preoptopus posted:Why the gently caress are military transports in a war zone identifiable on flight aware??? Russia is really bad at this.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:20
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Delthalaz posted:I'm rooting for Ukraine as hard as most but I'm trying to temper my expectations here. From what I understand Ukraine holding out a week, or two weeks, would be pretty remarkable considering Russian strength. (let alone 'winning' whatever that would mean. If Ukraine won the war it would be such a mind boggling humiliation Putin would be deposed and dead). It's been two days I don't think there's any way Ukraine "wins"; they don't and won't strike back and take Russian territory. Best case, Putin calls it off after a while and tells everybody at home they achieved whatever crazy goal he had in mind.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:23
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Go Ukraine, go Poland. I wish NATO had a quarter of Ukraine's will.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:23
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DeliciousPatriotism posted:Putin just seems like he can barely contain his anger anymore, the weird staged videos show that. The longer this draws on the more awful it's likely to become. Yeah. There is no scenario where Putin backs down, unless it's at gunpoint.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:23
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The heavy stuff is coming in now https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497439935032434688?t=vYYUKuB3hyFZWV2vWfbLYw&s=19 Coincidentally I'm seeing this meme of Saint Javelin popping up 
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Feb 26, 2022 06:24
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:mcdonalds is the official fast food of those who stand with ukraine! gonna have a hearty helping of tourist's breakfast in solidarity
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Feb 26, 2022 06:24
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Tuna-Fish posted:The next word in tanks is active protection systems, basically very light self-defence aa that shoots down missiles like Javelin. The idea should work, and Russia has been talking up their homegrown Arena system for a while, but they don't seem to have many (or really, any) actually deployed here. Would have been useful if that money had been spent on those instead of apartments in London. This came up early in the thread in the immediate run-up (which feels like months ago now), but Active Protection Systems like Arena have been deployed but it's turning out that they're still not ready for prime-time. They showed up on a bunch of armor in Syria and didn't seem to stop rebel TOWs from scrapping T-90s and presumably those had Russian crews. Lead out in cuffs posted:There were credible reports of about 18 IL-76s taking off from Belarus on the back of yesterday's failed airport assault. Most likely they turned back, but it really did seem like they were preparing to paradrop several thousand troops on Kyiv. The Russians are going to keep trying this with 16 Il-76s now.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:24
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