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Lead out in cuffs posted:Nah I don't think anyone's saying that. Mostly we're impressed with Ukraine's resolve, and mystified by Putin's motives. From a realpolitik perspective, it's still unlikely that Ukraine can hold out forever, but the path to a Russian occupation of Ukraine is looking to be very bloody, and there are all the makings of a long and bloody resistance to that occupation afterwards. Well that's good! Fwiw I live on the other side of the continent and went to a protest against the war in a safe European country, people coming out in Russia itself are indeed good brave folks
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Feb 26, 2022 10:46
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Flayer posted:So much propaganda from the Ukrainian side and almost zero from the Russian side, opposite to what I thought would be the case. It does make it very hard to trust any of the news coming out of the warzone though since it's all from only one side. That's because you are not looking for it. Here is a live feed of Russia Today: https://www.rt.com/on-air/ Right now they have some Ukrainian prisoners saying how scared they are. And after an ad for a show later today on how the 'nazification' is the US is involved in Ukraine
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Feb 26, 2022 10:46
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cstang posted:I've seen many of those and have had the same feelings. They look very poorly trained with even worse morale. They all seem to have a look of shame as well. I haven't seen a single one of them look their interrogator in the eyes. They stare at the ground. Odd vibe for an invasion force. In the army the call this "the shock of capture" and yea, it's basically being paralysed by fear and the unfamiliarity(massive understatement) of the situation. Even if they weren't conscripts, you don't generally see pows looking defiant or tough or whatever.
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Feb 26, 2022 10:47
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Captain Kosmos posted:Was there confirmation on the Ukrainians shooting down two transport planes? Haven't seen pics or video but reputable people have said that two were shot down, so it's not just twitter rumors.
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Feb 26, 2022 10:47
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Captain Kosmos posted:It's pretty incredible, thought that first-day Russians would have pretty much destroyed all the anti-air capacity that Ukrainians have. My only guess is that they maybe thought this was going to be like when they first entered Crimea. Waltzing right in with no one from either side firing shots. It's hard to believe they would be that naive though.
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Feb 26, 2022 10:48
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acidx posted:There have been reports of air assaults in Brody/Lviv and in Vasylkiv. Don't know if these are the same incident or if there were two separate ones. The one in Brody seems to have some video and details. 60ish Russians landed and got chased off into the woods according to the mayor of Lviv. Nobody seems to understand why 60 dudes just got dropped off in the middle of nowhere. https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497507322251210755
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Feb 26, 2022 10:48
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cstang posted:I would have expected one of the largest militaries in recorded history to be having more victories than they have. In recorded history? They probably don't break into the top 10 even. I think there's alot of people overestimating the size and manpower of the Russian armed forces. Not to mention this invasion invasion force.
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Feb 26, 2022 10:49
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TulliusCicero posted:So uh honest question? This is from the Guardian live ticker: quote:The UK’s armed forces minister said Russia had failed to achieve its initial objectives – and fighting outside Kyiv was limited to Russian special forces units.
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Feb 26, 2022 10:49
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Roskomnadzor issued a warning to several independant ish Russian media demanding to take down "false info" they posted. Specifically They used words "war" and "invasion" instead of Special operation or whatever Russians are calling it. Posted pieces about killed civilians and civilian buildings shelled, which obviously cannot be true.
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Feb 26, 2022 10:51
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cstang posted:My only guess is that they maybe thought this was going to be like when they first entered Crimea. Waltzing right in with no one from either side firing shots. It's hard to believe they would be that naive though. Nah they for sure knew that they were going to meet a lot of resistance, but they'll blame it on the Ukrainian propaganda brainwashing it's people.
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Feb 26, 2022 10:52
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Again, all of this screams a military chain of command and supply lines in complete disarray. I don't think anyone in their wildest dreams expected this result. Russia is showing to be pathetically weak to the world right now, and again NATO is taking notes on where all the holes are.
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Feb 26, 2022 10:52
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Flesnolk posted:I'm confused at what seems to be a lot of signs of Russian logistical collapse. Their troops really shouldn't be running out of fuel or food two days into a war - I know stuff happens fast in modern wars, but come on. Keep in mind that we're mostly getting Ukrainian info about the situation, for whatever reason Russia's propaganda game really is not on point this time around - although that itself is possibly arguably a bad sign for the Russians. e: regardless, one aspect I'm not impressed with are these random-rear end air drops Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 10:57 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 10:54
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quipA4hHCV4 Bit of an interesting video about the current situation in Georgia, and their (ten year long now) effort to join NATO and get some protection from the Russian blister of 'South Ossetia'
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Feb 26, 2022 10:56
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Flesnolk posted:I'm confused at what seems to be a lot of signs of Russian logistical collapse. Their troops really shouldn't be running out of fuel or food two days into a war - I know stuff happens fast in modern wars, but come on. Unless there's been attacks on resupply convoys behind the front line it points to a horribly planned and led invasion. It would make a lot of sense for some of the Ukrainians to just fade away into a forest or hide out in a village with a bunch of anti vehicle weapons and re-emerge to hit the resupply columns.
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Feb 26, 2022 10:59
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TulliusCicero posted:Again, all of this screams a military chain of command and supply lines in complete disarray. https://twitter.com/Meduselchen/status/1497503826533879808
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Feb 26, 2022 11:00
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Phlegmish posted:Keep in mind that we're mostly getting Ukrainian info about the situation, for whatever reason Russia's propaganda game really is not on point this time around - although that itself is possibly arguably a bad sign for the Russians. They probably had an overarching plan along the lines of pulling in good looking video shots and stills of them rolling over the ukranians, likely with specific personnel training and tasking. But they inexplicably don't seem to have any good footage to work with right now, so it's on-the-back-foot bullshitting to try to work around the obvious lack of reporting what they would obviouslt have been reporting if it was good
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Feb 26, 2022 11:01
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Play posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quipA4hHCV4 The minimum goal of this invasion seems to be to similarly turn Ukraine into damaged goods, but that was basically already the case with Crimea and the two 'people's republics'. It's kind of shocking just how brazen and unnecessary this attack is, and I'm hoping it ends poorly for Putin (with minimal loss of life otherwise)
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Feb 26, 2022 11:01
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One thing worth pointing out is that Russia has like 2500 tanks staged for this invasion, so a video of one sitting there out of fuel isn't super indicative of anything. Hopefully it is, but we'll see.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:04
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gay picnic defence posted:Unless there's been attacks on resupply convoys behind the front line it points to a horribly planned and led invasion. That's why I thought the "RUSSIAN BADASS SPETNAZ TAKE KYIV YEAAAAHHHH BOIIIIII!" plan was stupid from the beginning. So you are just going to GO AROUND all the Ukranian armor columns, not neutralize any of the cities, and the Ukranians are just going to be like "hey we lost have your supply line now bro!" Of course your convoys are being attacked and your logistics are hosed: you let the enemy happily behind your line of advance, and your paratroopers ain't doing dick against a massively fortified position. It's just stupid planning all the way down
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Feb 26, 2022 11:06
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gay picnic defence posted:a horribly planned and led invasion. So a Russian invasion.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:10
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https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497513843962089475 Russia should do this and then western nations should start nationalizing everything all the oligarchs own here.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:12
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The stranded armor in the middle of nowhere puzzles me. I'm aware heavy military vehicles consume a lot of fuel, but presumably you know how much fuel you'll need to get somewhere, and if you need to refuel along the way to reach it. If you need to refuel, you'd presumably wait at some staging point for it before continuing, not just press on until you go completely dry all alone. Poor crew training is an obvious explanation, but does anyone know of any other possible reasons for this?
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Feb 26, 2022 11:13
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acidx posted:https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497513843962089475 I feel like this is another brinksmanship game they lose outright. Oh no what will the GOP/ right wing fascists do without Rubles?! Someone's reeeeaally lost the plot in The Kremlin
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Feb 26, 2022 11:14
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TulliusCicero posted:That's why I thought the "RUSSIAN BADASS SPETNAZ TAKE KYIV YEAAAAHHHH BOIIIIII!" plan was stupid from the beginning. They had thought they shut down the Ukrainian air defense and destroyed the UkAF on the ground, not thinking they'd move them out of their bases probably a week before hostilities.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:14
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Slashrat posted:The stranded armor in the middle of nowhere puzzles me. I'm aware heavy military vehicles consume a lot of fuel, but presumably you know how much fuel you'll need to get somewhere, and if you need to refuel along the way to reach it. If you need to refuel, you'd presumably wait at some staging point for it before continuing, not just press on until you go completely dry all alone. Hopefully, some variant of "gently caress, i don't wanna shoot ukrainians. My grandpa's ukrainian. let's ditch and run off into the woods and hang out at my grandpa's house till this blows over."
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Feb 26, 2022 11:15
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Slashrat posted:The stranded armor in the middle of nowhere puzzles me. I'm aware heavy military vehicles consume a lot of fuel, but presumably you know how much fuel you'll need to get somewhere, and if you need to refuel along the way to reach it. If you need to refuel, you'd presumably wait at some staging point for it before continuing, not just press on until you go completely dry all alone. Desertion, and I wouldn't blame them one bit.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:16
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acidx posted:https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497513843962089475 Yeah, more nationalisation is good, it's actually a good idea.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:16
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Poland refusing to play WC play-off against Russia, according to the BBC live feed: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60517447 e: first Eurovision and now football, they've really done it now
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Feb 26, 2022 11:17
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Slashrat posted:The stranded armor in the middle of nowhere puzzles me. I'm aware heavy military vehicles consume a lot of fuel, but presumably you know how much fuel you'll need to get somewhere, and if you need to refuel along the way to reach it. If you need to refuel, you'd presumably wait at some staging point for it before continuing, not just press on until you go completely dry all alone. I've heard the tanks have like a 700km range as well so it should be way too early for them to be running out of fuel, so I don't know what the deal is. In one of the videos there was discarded body armor laying next to the tank so in that case I think it may have been deserters.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:17
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Hopefully, some variant of The thought did cross my mind, but they are still hanging around their vehicles, reportedly low on or entirely without food too. Could be they are just waiting for UKR forces to show up so they can surrender though.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:18
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Captain Kosmos posted:It's pretty incredible, thought that first-day Russians would have pretty much destroyed all the anti-air capacity that Ukrainians have. Well, one brutal theory is that they're using the low quality troops first to find, fix and wear down the Ukrainians before they send in the real troops later with a clear picture of where the enemy will be.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:18
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Slashrat posted:The stranded armor in the middle of nowhere puzzles me. I'm aware heavy military vehicles consume a lot of fuel, but presumably you know how much fuel you'll need to get somewhere, and if you need to refuel along the way to reach it. If you need to refuel, you'd presumably wait at some staging point for it before continuing, not just press on until you go completely dry all alone. Given how disorganised things seem they've probably set off with the expectation that the units ahead of them have set up resupply posts but are finding that hasn't been done or that the supplies never arrived. They then set off in hope that the situation at the next one is better but can't make it. Also if there is an attack up ahead they may be idling for longer than anticipated as the advance stops and starts.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:18
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acidx posted:I've heard the tanks have like a 700km range as well so it should be way too early for them to be running out of fuel, so I don't know what the deal is. In one of the videos there was discarded body armor laying next to the tank so in that case I think it may have been deserters. They got half that, on road. This is straight driving on paved roads, no manuevering, no idling.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:18
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Kavros posted:They probably had an overarching plan along the lines of pulling in good looking video shots and stills of them rolling over the ukranians, likely with specific personnel training and tasking. Yeah but isn't that kind of weird? I remember when the US invaded Iraq for the second time the international new was getting pretty regular footage - albeit it was all professionally done and either US military related, or Baghdad Bob's claims about single Iraqi farmers using a handgun to destroy thousands of US tanks. I just flipped through the wiki article on it again and it seems like it did go as far as I remember - it took about two weeks to take Baghdad and another 2 weeks to finish all organized resistance. Still, it's been 20 years and I doubt many Iraqis had digital cameras, and even those who did would have had a challenge to share those photos back in 2003. Like I just remember the US military absolutely steamrolling Iraq and that even with fog of war we knew pretty quickly. Maybe not 3 days quickly though.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:19
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Xerxes17 posted:Well, one brutal theory is that they're using the low quality troops first to find, fix and wear down the Ukrainians before they send in the real troops later with a clear picture of where the enemy will be. They've sent in a lot of paratroopers and air assault guys though, and presumably they would've liked to have gotten them reinforced by the main invasion force quickly.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:19
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Coxswain Balls posted:Desertion, and I wouldn't blame them one bit. It's so loving weird. A rando Ukrainian drives up to a broke dick tank and says, "Dudes. You need a tow back to Moscow?" Like, who drives up to the occupiers and yuks it up? Ukrainians that's who.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:20
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Seems like the sense that this is not going as well/quickly as Putin wanted isn't limited to us random nobodies on the intertubes:quote:The UK’s armed forces minister said Russia had failed to achieve its initial objectives – and fighting outside Kyiv was limited to Russian special forces units. The point that it's only small numbers of Russian soldiers that have so far made it to Kyiv is encouraging (in the short term) and worrying (in the medium term) because it suggests the big guns and heavy armour haven't yet arrived. edit: beaten I see, oops Zephro fucked around with this message at 11:34 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 11:20
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It fits with the reports of russian conscripts being all "gently caress this we didnt think we'd be invading anyone" E) the desertion/supply fuckup stuff I mean. Radical 90s Wizard fucked around with this message at 11:25 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 11:22
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acidx posted:https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497513843962089475 Please, please loving do it. Do it you pussies. As if any of us give a flying gently caress about billionaire/corporate money stored in Russia, shouldn't even be there anyways. And it will pave the way for the same thing to happen to Russian capital in many countries around the world. I like this. It seems desperate. I'm guessing it's an empty threat but I actually hope they go through with this. Go ahead and try and out-sanction the west
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Feb 26, 2022 11:25
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Slashrat posted:The stranded armor in the middle of nowhere puzzles me. I'm aware heavy military vehicles consume a lot of fuel, but presumably you know how much fuel you'll need to get somewhere, and if you need to refuel along the way to reach it. If you need to refuel, you'd presumably wait at some staging point for it before continuing, not just press on until you go completely dry all alone. They've been moving around so much that their supply lines are getting stretched thin and getting ambushed. Also, skipping cities in their race toward Kiev instead of confronting them and getting their supplies ambushed. The video I posted was apparently from Kherson, which has had lost bridges and definitely had ambushes and is supplied by the sea through Crimea. The average fuel consumption of those armored vehicles is something like 500-600km on a tank of 460 liters of diesel. That's probably about 7-8 hours worth of travel, maybe twice or three-times that much idling. They'll be running out of fuel right about now without refueling.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:26
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