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OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

alg posted:

if she actually follows through this is huge right? Russia loses easy access to Kyiv in the north and their supply chain breaks

she has no power to do anything lol

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FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Insane footage from the outskirts of Ivankov

https://twitter.com/berojag59060636/status/1497584916443578373

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

sean10mm posted:

Picnic table didn't stop a tandem HEAT warhead spewing jets of molten metal? Big if true.

Those don’t work against tandem systems really. They are far more effective against older RPG-7s, and I am assuming the Russians did not plan for the number of javelin systems NATO has actually delivered.

I feel like they prepared on the assumption Ukraine would not actually have many current generation portal anti-tank weapons.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

alg posted:

if she actually follows through this is huge right? Russia loses easy access to Kyiv in the north and their supply chain breaks

I'm not sure she's actually, like, in Belarus. She might be government in exile type thing?

still one more thing for Putin to worry about.

MadJackal
Apr 30, 2004

happyhippy posted:

They know they hosed up. Simple as.
There is no win scenario here for them which doesn't involve a major loss somewhere else.
Take over Ukraine, lose economically big time back home and look like tyrants to world for next few decades.
Don't take over Ukraine, look weak to world, Putin out.
And either way, NATO mostly likely gets a few new members soon.

The Propaganda units in Russia are silent as they aren't told what to say because Putin doesn't know what to do now.
He thought it would be a cakewalk.

I agree with this. The absolute best case scenario for Russia now is a bloody slaughter of a plucky, globally-sympathetic country defending its sovereignty, costing Russia untold amounts of billions in economic setbacks.

The original plan of “keep lying until we surprise the world by taking Kyiv’s airport and decapitating the government in one day” got hosed hard.

MadJackal fucked around with this message at 16:21 on Feb 26, 2022

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


alg posted:

if she actually follows through this is huge right? Russia loses easy access to Kyiv in the north and their supply chain breaks

being internationally recognized as belarus' leader is completely symbolic, especially since Belarus is already isolated from the world and essentially a satellite state of Russia suince the lukashenko protests.

she could i guess take advantage of the fact that russia's troops are elsewhere like people have been speculating for former-ussr states except they're not elsewhere they're in belarus and nobody there's going to try anything with that happening.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

This looks to be the reason Russian armour isn't getting through to Kyiv. Not NMS, but burning vehicles in background: https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1497590607899992066

e: already posted. But I agree with the comment that this is a 'morale is high' kind of video.

alg
Mar 14, 2007

A wolf was no less a wolf because a whim of chance caused him to run with the watch-dogs.

DaysBefore posted:

She's in exile in Lithuania (I think) right now. Honestly the most surprising thing is that she hasn't committed double-gunshot suicide yet. Good luck to her but there's not much hope to cling to there.

welp

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

alg posted:

if she actually follows through this is huge right? Russia loses easy access to Kyiv in the north and their supply chain breaks

No, she's trying to become th Belarussian Guaido. Nothing changes on the ground.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

alg posted:

if she actually follows through this is huge right? Russia loses easy access to Kyiv in the north and their supply chain breaks

Belarus is a dictatorship. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is the president of a protest-group.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Alchenar posted:

It's all leaks and rumour. Quite rightly nobody is calling out who the holdouts are/were because when you are doing serious diplomacy behind closed doors between friends that kind of behaviour isn't helpful.

The media bubble seems to think that over the course of the last 24 hours there's been significant movement from the holdouts and there's been a rash of formal announcements from suspected holdouts that they are on board, but until something is announced we just don't know.

Thanks. I know there is a lot of wariness resorting to a measure that will drive the Russians toward an alternative non-dollar denominated mechanism.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Dunno if that Z poo poo really meant Zapadnyi Voenni Okrug (Western Military District) or just glorious mil propaganda branding ala "polite people" because 22.02.2022 but we got a new moron marker back at home

https://twitter.com/nyk_konev/status/1497579526473277440

eat the loving eggs zorro

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Full commit on propaganda
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1497589083035648006
Domestic propaganda focused on localized Donbass fighting, now they're fullying saying that they'll commit fully to the invasion. Worse to come I fear.

DaysBefore
Jan 24, 2019


Aside from this and short pieces on Khrakiv and Kherson I've seen basically no footage of the regular Ukranian Army doing anything, which I guess is a good thing thing because it means their media blackout might be working?

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

the popes toes posted:

Thanks. I know there is a lot of wariness resorting to a measure that will drive the Russians toward an alternative non-dollar denominated mechanism.

If they do, they are setting themselves up to become the client state of whichever power takes ownership of this alternative system, so that's a loss. It won't be like their little Eurasian economic club.

Vahakyla
May 3, 2013

This isn’t some fresh conscript. Has to be a veteran of the Donbass war or something. That’s a professional soldier.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

From pro-russian account
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1497582704753356801

pro- Ukrainian

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497592565624832004

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Once I said I was afraid of how Ukraine would do vs tank columns

I stand corrected. The Ukrainian civil defense force does seem to be winning against the 4th guards tank divisions.


Also I wonder how much of an effect the constant boozing and poo poo the Russians is having. I mean they go from drinking themselves stupid to being unable to find alcohol. It's probably loving horrible for some of these guys to be withdrawing while getting javelins to the torso.

How can you fight like this gently caress

Wistful of Dollars
Aug 25, 2009

KitConstantine posted:

Not going great in the north maybe.

Google translation of the below:

‼ ️ During the battles for Chernihiv as a result of a lightning attack together with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, NMU servicemen managed to return to their positions in a flash and capture 2 🇷🇺 occupiers who did not even have time to react to what happened, were very confused. One of them is the Chief of Staff of unit 41659.

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497584608556240898?t=lUKm3h7vZ9EGR2wdHdMl5A&s=19

War is horrific.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

sean10mm posted:

Big problem would be Ukraine using a bunch of Soviet era stuff that isn't interoperable with NATO gear.

That was my assumption and, being pissed on behalf of General Dynamics who makes Patriot Missiles, one of the reasons the US was irked that Turkey agreed to by S-400s from Russia.

Still, I don’t know how else to explain how the Russians have so far failed to destroy or damage Ukraine’s air defense network enough that the Russian Air Force cannot bring its overwhelming force superiority to bear and dominate the air over the battlefield.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Russia should have tried their anti-prop push a bit earlier.

https://twitter.com/ngumenyuk/status/1497592850535563268?t=4ABVfOe3-N0a7vaG_Ei3yg&s=19

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Also I wonder how much of an effect the constant boozing and poo poo the Russians is having. I mean they go from drinking themselves stupid to being unable to find alcohol. It's probably loving horrible for some of these guys to be withdrawing while getting javelins to the torso.

How can you fight like this gently caress

C'mon dude.

Wuxi
Apr 3, 2012

Even a regime change in Belarus or Lukaschenko having the biggest 180 in human history isn't going to change a thing. Putin will just hold up a chart saying "what is a belarus anyway?" and keep his troops exactly where they are, there is no way to force them from their positions.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

FishBulbia posted:

Full commit on propaganda
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1497589083035648006
Domestic propaganda focused on localized Donbass fighting, now they're fullying saying that they'll commit fully to the invasion. Worse to come I fear.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497590265737097217

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1497582704753356801

it was always a given that Ukraine would hunker down in the cities and pick their fights rather than try to match Russian numbers in the countryside, so that announcement is perhaps more intended as a morale booster for Russian forces

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

FishBulbia posted:

Full commit on propaganda
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1497589083035648006
Domestic propaganda focused on localized Donbass fighting, now they're fullying saying that they'll commit fully to the invasion. Worse to come I fear.

"OK, That's it! Now I'm REALLY mad."

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

DaysBefore posted:

Aside from this and short pieces on Khrakiv and Kherson I've seen basically no footage of the regular Ukranian Army doing anything, which I guess is a good thing thing because it means their media blackout might be working?

I also think the fighting is serious enough for Ukrainian regular army that soldiers are not really prioritizing taking video of it on their phones.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

ronya posted:

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497590265737097217

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1497582704753356801

it was always a given that Ukraine would hunker down in the cities and pick their fights rather than try to match Russian numbers in the countryside, so that announcement is perhaps more intended as a morale booster for Russian forces

Combined with the claims of military targets in cities being reported by state media, I think the war is about to enter a scary phase.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

DaysBefore posted:

Aside from this and short pieces on Khrakiv and Kherson I've seen basically no footage of the regular Ukranian Army doing anything, which I guess is a good thing thing because it means their media blackout might be working?

Ukranian social media was completely covered in 'don't even think about posting operational footage of ukranian forces and positions' early on and footage is getting rapidly reported and taken down, though no one is even sure who all is responsible for that last bit.

Who knows what it all means.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Ukranian social media was completely covered in 'don't even think about posting operational footage of ukranian forces and positions' early on and footage is getting rapidly reported and taken down, though no one is even sure who all is responsible for that last bit.

Who knows what it all means.

Taking down intel-breaches on american-owned social media is something nato/us could definitely be assisting with.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

TheRat posted:

Taking down intel-breaches on american-owned social media is something nato/us could definitely be assisting with.

nah the stuff being taken down is non-english, presumably it's ukranians or russians doing it. Each side has their own reasons for wanting stuff down.

it's possible the us or some other party in nato (or someone else sympathetic to russia for that matter), but idk that's a lot of speculation when both immediate parties have a reason to want footage down.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
So for all the military minded people here, does Ukraine start taking down more bridges and roads to prolong Russian logistics at some point? Or is that a no go because it would strand other parts of the country?

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Ukr defense source confirm snake island did surrender

https://www.facebook.com/100066866381279/posts/285013563737521/?d=n

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

FishBulbia posted:

Combined with the claims of military targets in cities being reported by state media, I think the war is about to enter a scary phase.

It’s already in the scary phase, frankly; however, we are entering the phase where the greatest likelihood of a miscalculation on Putin’s part leads to something far more dangerous.

DaysBefore
Jan 24, 2019

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Ukranian social media was completely covered in 'don't even think about posting operational footage of ukranian forces and positions' early on and footage is getting rapidly reported and taken down, though no one is even sure who all is responsible for that last bit.

Who knows what it all means.

Makes sense, and even the pieces I did see were like two minute videos from CNN and the Telegram. And in the former the CNN guy was like 'the Ukranian Army tells us to gently caress off whenever we try to film them' anyway so that all checks out.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Mooseontheloose posted:

So for all the military minded people here, does Ukraine start taking down more bridges and roads to prolong Russian logistics at some point? Or is that a no go because it would strand other parts of the country?

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497592156738965509

To an extent, but the Russians are probably as stretched as they reasonably can be by their decision to bypass major urban areas.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1497593575508525064

in which the CNN correspondent really just continues doing laps around the Russian side of the border, it seems

I guess it's not secret but still

Filed under 'concerning':

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497593593388752896
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497595354031669248

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Ukranian social media was completely covered in 'don't even think about posting operational footage of ukranian forces and positions' early on and footage is getting rapidly reported and taken down, though no one is even sure who all is responsible for that last bit.

Who knows what it all means.

I've seen one of fighter accounts on twitter asking wherabouts of a lady that documented ukraine movements from her window and posted them on youtube, they were provided very swiftly. Doxxing people is very easy and sometimes it is easier to engage the leakers in material world so to speak.

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute

Vahakyla posted:

This isn’t some fresh conscript. Has to be a veteran of the Donbass war or something. That’s a professional soldier.

Makes sense, the UK delivered the NLAWs only like 2-3 weeks ago, would be the smart choice to train veterans in their use first.

Also, UK isn't getting nearly enough credit. They supplied 2000 of these weapons, and they are doing good work.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006


Yikes. That's really worrying.

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FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Yeah. I think in comparison to what is coming the invasion so far will seem surgical. They're bringing tons of MLRS systems too.

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