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DandyLion posted:That doesn't make any sense, Belarus is already a puppet state. That’s what the current rumour mill says, that there’s going to be a “referendum” on formally joining Russia. Nothing else makes sense to me, since I’m not a huge believer in Russia going for Moldova, Georgia, or Armenia.
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Feb 27, 2022 06:50
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KillHour posted:You loving fucks why does every American political party have to be horrible? Dunno but it's intensely frustrating. Zelenskyy : 'I don't need a ride, I need ammunition!' So-called leftists : 'Violence is always bad, even in defense, the US should pull out of all aid and treaty obligations.' loving idiots.
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Feb 27, 2022 06:54
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the popes toes posted:There's been an admirable and I think successful effort by the US to not be perceived as leading a cabal against Putin. Europe seemed a bit back footed at first until everyone ignored Germany, and now the implicit messaging is that Europe is going to loving fix this. Which is cool. Poland traveling to Berlin to berate the Germans for their selfishness, and saying that was why they were going, was a key moment to me. Good call. I think Biden is trying to be hands off to avoid escalation, but I think he is trying to drive a united effort. Still, no one leader has appeared as any sort of figurehead of US/Europe/etc. Macron seemed to take the lead during the Russian troop buildup.
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Feb 27, 2022 06:54
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gay picnic defence posted:The bit about Putin's life expectancy in that tweet is interesting in the context of all those rumours about him having Parkinson's and maybe this invasion being the last hurrah to secure his legacy before he croaks. Parkinson's doesn't work like that.
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Feb 27, 2022 06:55
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https://twitter.com/shayan86/status/1496714384390987776 Good thread about lovely footage circulating.
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Feb 27, 2022 06:55
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DandyLion posted:That doesn't make any sense, Belarus is already a puppet state. I'm sure there's a manifesto somewhere about how Belarus was an artificial construct created by the perfidious Lenin yada yada yada
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Feb 27, 2022 06:55
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Yudo posted:They (the UK) have sat on the oligarch report or whatever it is called for years and only now are tepidly taking action. Maybe the RN can make itself useful and liberate super yachts for the people; the army all of the houses in notting hill, chelsea, knightsbridge, etc. Exactly. I’ll believe the west actually gives a gently caress when the UK takes that poo poo and gives it back to its citizens or donates it to refugees.
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Feb 27, 2022 06:56
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Red posted:Good call. I think Biden is trying to be hands off to avoid escalation, but I think he is trying to drive a united effort. Still, no one leader has appeared as any sort of figurehead of US/Europe/etc. Macron seemed to take the lead during the Russian troop buildup. Having a figurehead only makes sense if you believe the counterparty wants to negotiate in good faith. Nobody believes that Russia wants to do that. So you show up as a united front to shut everything down as hard as possible.
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Feb 27, 2022 06:56
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:As I said, the UK could end this poo poo now but straight up seizing all property and assets owned by the oligarchs. They haven’t. The UK is directly responsible for the atrocities on the Ukrainian working class. Are not the current sanctions, especially the SWIFT bans and the freeze on Russian central bank assets going to crater the wealth, power, and property of Russian oligarchs far, far more than nationalizing whatever luxury assets they have internationally? I mean sure, by all means, nationalize them, I'm not gonna shed any tears for a lost superyacht here or there (I loving hate superyachts as a concept myself) and it might help a bit but it seems strange to claim that this act, alone, is the only thing that can and will motivate them to resist Putin when they've already got so many other daggers pointed at them.
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Feb 27, 2022 06:57
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Tomn posted:Are not the current sanctions, especially the SWIFT bans and the freeze on Russian central bank assets going to crater the wealth, power, and property of Russian oligarchs far, far more than nationalizing whatever luxury assets they have internationally? I mean sure, by all means, nationalize them, I'm not gonna shed any tears for a lost superyacht here or there (I loving hate superyachts as a concept myself) and it might help a bit but it seems strange to claim that this act, alone, is the only thing that can and will motivate them to resist Putin when they've already got so many other daggers pointed at them. They didn’t do gently caress all with SWIFT until there is a full ban. Anything less than a full ban if only for idiots to believe the west is doing anything.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:01
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Liquid Communism posted:Dunno but it's intensely frustrating. Jesus Christ we suck. Our olds running the country are getting confused again.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:04
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Tomn posted:Are not the current sanctions, especially the SWIFT bans and the freeze on Russian central bank assets going to crater the wealth, power, and property of Russian oligarchs far, far more than nationalizing whatever luxury assets they have internationally? I mean sure, by all means, nationalize them, I'm not gonna shed any tears for a lost superyacht here or there (I loving hate superyachts as a concept myself) and it might help a bit but it seems strange to claim that this act, alone, is the only thing that can and will motivate them to resist Putin when they've already got so many other daggers pointed at them. SWIFT bans eliminate transactions at an enterprise level. Yanking yachts, apartments, and assets hurts because that's one way that the ultra rich hide their money - own a giant French chateau somewhere under a corporate banner with few ties, but it's still a store of wealth. Break that and you're breaking through their safety net. Realistically, this won't have a meaningful impact. Oligarchs (and the massively wealthy in general) are far too practiced in hiding it to get caught. But this might be a start towards tracking this poo poo down at least.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:05
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e: beaten, but hoping the people of Kharkiv can drive out the invaders. Solidarity with the people of Ukraine.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:05
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gentle reminder that even though this thread is fast-moving this is still D&D and you are expected to support your arguments, discussion of sanctions and their effects (or lack thereof) are certainly encouraged but it would be helpful to include more explanation or reasoning than simple declarative statements
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Feb 27, 2022 07:05
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Shooting Blanks posted:Having a figurehead only makes sense if you believe the counterparty wants to negotiate in good faith. Nobody believes that Russia wants to do that. So you show up as a united front to shut everything down as hard as possible. Oh, sure - but I guess I’m thinking of it more as someone trying to make a name for themselves. Boris probably wants less attention, what with the party scandal.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:06
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:Exactly. Taking the oligarch's toys isn't going to stop the war, and believing otherwise is hopelessly naïve. They don't run the show: Putin does, and his motivation to invade Ukraine has nothing to do with money.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:06
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Tomn posted:Are not the current sanctions, especially the SWIFT bans and the freeze on Russian central bank assets going to crater the wealth, power, and property of Russian oligarchs far, far more than nationalizing whatever luxury assets they have internationally? I mean sure, by all means, nationalize them, I'm not gonna shed any tears for a lost superyacht here or there (I loving hate superyachts as a concept myself) and it might help a bit but it seems strange to claim that this act, alone, is the only thing that can and will motivate them to resist Putin when they've already got so many other daggers pointed at them. It’s one thing to ride out a few sanctions that get lifted in a year or two, and it’s quite another to see al your toys taken away. Not seizing the property encourages riding by Putin’s side until everyone forgets about this in 18-24 months and lifts sanctions. If you want to get some raving mad Russian oligarchs, take away their estates and toys, and then you will see some pressure placed on the dictator for ruining the good thing they had going.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:07
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TyrantWD posted:It’s one thing to ride out a few sanctions that get lifted in a year or two, and it’s quite another to see al your toys taken away. Not seizing the property encourages riding by Putin’s side until everyone forgets about this in 18-24 months and lifts sanctions. If you want to get some raving mad Russian oligarchs, take away their estates and toys, and then you will see some pressure placed on the dictator for ruining the good thing they had going. These sanctions will destroy Russia. Full stop.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:09
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:Anything less than a full ban if only for idiots to believe the west is doing anything.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:09
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I haven’t been following the battle in Kharkiv at all but I’m aware of the importance of the city. Now that Russians are apparently breaking through into the city what happens?
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Feb 27, 2022 07:10
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Tomn posted:Are not the current sanctions, especially the SWIFT bans and the freeze on Russian central bank assets going to crater the wealth, power, and property of Russian oligarchs far, far more than nationalizing whatever luxury assets they have internationally? I mean sure, by all means, nationalize them, I'm not gonna shed any tears for a lost superyacht here or there (I loving hate superyachts as a concept myself) and it might help a bit but it seems strange to claim that this act, alone, is the only thing that can and will motivate them to resist Putin when they've already got so many other daggers pointed at them. The important thing is to hit where it hurts. Whether that be SWIFT, targeted confiscation of assets, or anything else. There are a lot of Russian elite assets outside of Russia, and they should all be seized and nationalized. Any properties owned in London for example, which I heard have been popular among Russian elites, gone. Any stock that can be traced back to them, the state takes it away. This is war time, normal rules do not apply anymore. Their money is just numbers on a computer, and they have lost the right to not have those numbers just taken away. doverhog fucked around with this message at 07:13 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 07:10
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Taking the oligarch's toys isn't going to stop the war, and believing otherwise is hopelessly naïve. They don't run the show: Putin does, and his motivation to invade Ukraine has nothing to do with money. He's not worried about Ukraine becoming a gas supplier on par with Russia?
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Feb 27, 2022 07:10
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Taking the oligarch's toys isn't going to stop the war, and believing otherwise is hopelessly naïve. They don't run the show: Putin does, and his motivation to invade Ukraine has nothing to do with money. Putin runs the show because he has the backing of the oligarchs. He would have likely died years ago as a retired KGB nobody with cirrhosis if the oligarchs didn’t put him power.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:11
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Delthalaz posted:I haven’t been following the battle in Kharkiv at all but I’m aware of the importance of the city. Now that Russians are apparently breaking through into the city what happens? International law says that if 1 enemy soldier enters the city everyone must leave. In other words, let's wait and see. We know nothing about the nature of breakthrough force, and the environment on the ground. They could very well simply get hunted down in a few hours.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:11
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Herstory Begins Now posted:lol you keep saying this and i will keep correcting you that they were buying them for more than a year or two before that. They also got licensed to produce them domestically. apparently i missed your previous correction  in my defense, thread moves considerably faster than the Russian tank advance
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Feb 27, 2022 07:12
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It doesn't matter whether the oligarchs actually control Putin or the reverse, you hit them regardless, because either way it will make the cost for Putin higher.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:13
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On looking it up, it appears the statement announcing the new sanctions includes this section:quote:Fourth, we commit to launching this coming week a transatlantic task force that will ensure the effective implementation of our financial sanctions by identifying and freezing the assets of sanctioned individuals and companies that exist within our jurisdictions. As a part of this effort we are committed to employing sanctions and other financial and enforcement measures on additional Russian officials and elites close to the Russian government, as well as their families, and their enablers to identify and freeze the assets they hold in our jurisdictions. We will also engage other governments and work to detect and disrupt the movement of ill-gotten gains, and to deny these individuals the ability to hide their assets in jurisdictions across the world. Doesn't this seem like a preliminary step in seizing assets, at the very least? Granted it's not an immediate declaration of nationalization but it does seem like it's holding that dagger over their heads, with the option to plunge it down if necessary.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:14
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doverhog posted:The important thing is to hit where it hurts. Whether that be SWIFT, targeted confiscation of assets, or anything else. There are a lot of Russian elite assets outside of Russia, and they should all be seized and nationalized. Any properties owned in London for example, which I heard have been popular among Russian elites, gone. Any stock that can be traced back to them, the state takes it away. This is war time, normal rules do not apply anymore. You both must have missed where it was announced that a transatlantic task force would be looking into seizing assets. Not sure if they'll be nationalized, though https://twitter.com/VeraMBergen/status/1497720053432832008?t=EKE--ylaygiUnadl7216kA&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 07:15
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Cugel the Clever posted:Getting the political will to do such measures takes time and citizens along their politicians to actually press. Achieving other measures, particularly ones which many countries had been so reluctant to embrace for so long, is still a huge win and can be used as the foundation for further efforts. No it isn’t. Either the west actually gives a poo poo or it doesn’t. Incrementalism is a losing position looking for an out. Enact SWIFT ban full stop and seize all assets owned by oligarchs or else this is just the west enjoying some entertainment while Ukrainians bare the brunt of the cost. vvvv I want to recognize that this as a good post in this thread and one that makes far more sense than “oh em gee DSA is nuts now let’s ooh rah about war!” virtualboyCOLOR fucked around with this message at 07:20 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 07:15
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:They didn’t do gently caress all with SWIFT until there is a full ban. Anything less than a full ban if only for idiots to believe the west is doing anything. The idea I've heard is if you go full nuclear option and entirely ban all Russian banks from SWIFT is that the west has basically used up all it's leverage and what's to stop Putin from going full war crimes now that there is nothing really left besides direct military intervention by NATO stopping him. This way they can apply pressure, see how Russia responds and use further SWIFT bans and seizure options to keep the pressure sustained. I'm totally cool with the UK and other countries seizing wealth from the Russian oligarchs but I also can see a strategy where that happens over the next month depending on how things proceed. Basically, let's just wait and see. This is only day 3.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:15
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GreyjoyBastard posted:apparently i missed your previous correction Does it move faster than the lone Russian vehicles spotted way behind their lines though?
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Feb 27, 2022 07:16
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Dante80 posted:The above is 100% correct. Putin is literally just a bigger more autocratic Erdogan. Do you have any sympathies for Sultan Fuckshit and his similar crocodile tears about international waters? His similar military adventures in Syria, Armenia, and Libya? His continued policy of treating Cyprus like a non-country whose sovereignty is irrelevant when it comes to Turkish security and economic needs? loving no? Then don't buy into identical poo poo as being sympathetic and forced by outside hands.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:17
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Day 3 of a full on attack. There are Russian soldiers dying in Kiev right now. The time to gently caress around is over, right now is the time to use all sanctions that might have any effect.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:17
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Here's what Ukraine is facing right now. Notice the playground in picture 3 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497817478902263811?t=JxfBUHX-6seIhBcWAEjVnA&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 07:18
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TyrantWD posted:Putin runs the show because he has the backing of the oligarchs. He would have likely died years ago as a retired KGB nobody with cirrhosis if the oligarchs didn’t put him power. This exactly, and he retains their support as long as he keeps making them money. Cut that line of support off, and they will sideline him just like they sidelined Yeltsin before him.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:18
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Yeah, I think the idea is that you slowly escalate the heat so that Russia has time to pull out or change course. If you go full nuclear with sanctions he'll have nothing left to lose. At that point you're fully committed to killing Russia and turn them into another isolated North Korea style pariah. The question is if the west is actually committed to that escalation or they'll chicken out over fears of "pain at the pump" or corporate lobbying.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:18
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Popete posted:The idea I've heard is if you go full nuclear option and entirely ban all Russian banks from SWIFT is that the west has basically used up all it's leverage and what's to stop Putin from going full war crimes now that there is nothing really left besides direct military intervention by NATO stopping him. This way they can apply pressure, see how Russia responds and use further SWIFT bans and seizure options to keep the pressure sustained. I'm totally cool with the UK and other countries seizing wealth from the Russian oligarchs but I also can see a strategy where that happens over the next month depending on how things proceed. Isn't the idea of sanctions that you can stop sanctioning the other party when they agree to stop being a fuckup? If you completely ban Russia from SWIFT and Russia capitulates and comes to the table, you now have readmittance to SWIFT as a bargaining chip.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:20
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TyrantWD posted:Putin runs the show because he has the backing of the oligarchs. He would have likely died years ago as a retired KGB nobody with cirrhosis if the oligarchs didn’t put him power. Putin rose to power because of the oligarchs, but that was twenty years ago. In the time since then Putin has become immensely wealthy himself, and personally concentrated much of the power of the modern Russian state. He's certainly had no compunctions against murdering those who've crossed him, or putting others in jail for years. rrradical posted:He's not worried about Ukraine becoming a gas supplier on par with Russia? Maybe some part of him is, but that's not his overarching goal. This man sees the 1990s as the greatest tragedy to befall Russia, and has spent almost all of his career seeking to restore Russia's borders and international prestige. He's not invading Ukraine because they're an economic threat, he's invading because he believes Ukraine to be a core part of the Russian Empire, and them attempting to become closer to Europe is an insult and a disgrace.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:20
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Baronjutter posted:Yeah, I think the idea is that you slowly escalate the heat so that Russia has time to pull out or change course. If you go full nuclear with sanctions he'll have nothing left to lose. At that point you're fully committed to killing Russia and turn them into another isolated North Korea style pariah. The question is if the west is actually committed to that escalation or they'll chicken out over fears of "pain at the pump" or corporate lobbying. I think the west has actively been seeking to curb Russia financially and finally had the justification.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:21
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Majorian posted:This exactly, and he retains their support as long as he keeps making them money. Cut that line of support off, and they will sideline him just like they sidelined Yeltsin before him. It's a bit different now compared to Yeltsin as Putin systematically killed off all the old oligarchs that rose up independently during Yeltsin's rule. The current ones are all "made" by Putin. You might not be as upset about going from $5B to $3B wealth when the only reason you have any money at all is that Putin decided you will have it, and before that decision you had nothing. However, even their loyalty might not be unlimited.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:22
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