|
Oh this is particularly big: https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1497885497561071616 Aside from all the infrastructure spending to get LNG terminals up, a pretty big sign that the plan is not to go back to business as usual after this. 2% of GPD to meet NATO commitments that can quietly be eroded away by inflation in future years is one thing, enshrining that commitment would be a huge ' this is Germany's foreign policy for the 21st Century' moment.
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 12:55
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 31, 2024 09:30 |
|
|
Wow guys Russia won they apperently took the azov base. they can go home now because the war is over and ukraine has been liberated. im sure they'll be leaving now
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 12:55
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:I'm beginning to doubt these claims of the Russians having numerical advantage and overmatch now, especially at the level of competency, logistics, and morale in the lower ranks. Having 3 million soldiers but unable to feed, pay or train most of them is just number padding. And the elite units, the people who Putin should be and have invested time and resources in, the people you want to keep around as examples and teachers, being used flushed away in suicidal assaults? Harms the organization as a whole. Yeah, and it should be noted that the Russians don't have 3 million or the official number of active soldiers (1 million) in their invasion force against Ukraine, they have something around 200,000 and let's say around 120,000 or so of those are in combat units. The Ukrainians are outgunned, especially in the air and in armor, but I honestly don't think they are outnumbered and so far it does not appear as though the Russians have managed to effectively use their material superiority to mitigate the fact that this invasion force might not be big enough to conquer or occupy the country. Take Kyiv, maybe, if they do it quick. But encircle and isolate all major Ukrainian cities and forces as some seem to have suggested is "the plan", I don't think this is enough.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 12:57
|
|
|
Panzeh posted:Yeah i think 2003 is a pretty good comparison because the US military did similar coup-de-mains like this and it worked, mostly. They got away with a lot using an undersized force for the invasion and it worked out because the Iraqis collapsed even more quickly and even when they hadn't- they missed a lot of opportunities when US columns showed their asses. Yeah, this sort of thing has worked in the past both for America and for Russia. See: invasion of Panama. Thing is to do that kind of smash and grab you have to 1) have really, really good planning and logistics and intel AND 2) your enemy has to collapse in several different ways at once, and neither of those are happening here.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:00
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1497904137131991041 https://twitter.com/brycewilsonAU/status/1497902428515094529 this time itll work
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:02
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:Again, people are conflating 1991 and 2003 a lot. There was a lengthy bombing campaign in 1991. In 2003 day one was the start of airstrikes and then on day two the ground invasion started. I mean, the US didn't spend many DAYS bombing iraq, but it used like 3000 missiles in a couple hours. Shock and Awe was one of the biggest bombing campaigns in all of human history. Like, we talked up that we wanted to preserve civilian lives, which was probably true and not true in various ways, but there was absolutely no pretending we were trying to save cities. We were going to pound those into a fine powder asap, pull down all the statues, burn down all the important buildings, etc. Russia wants the Kiev from old soviet post cards to be back to being russian. They don't want to bomb it, it's the thing they want to get as much as anything. It's like if new york split off from america and america wanted it back, they'd kill the people they saw as stealing it, but not want to bomb the city to rubble or anything. A big bombing campaign against a city would be the last thing russia wants in this.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:02
|
|
|
One of the posters in MilHist was a tank commander in the 2003 invasion, he posted to the effect that the main challenge American advancing tanks had, in his experience, was that they didn't have the people and resources to properly process and care for all the soldiers who were trying to surrender to them. E: Correction, it was actually Desert Storm ('91) steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 13:06 on Feb 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:02
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:One of the posters in MilHist was a tank commander in the 2003 invasion, he posted to the effect that the main challenge American advancing tanks had, in his experience, was that they didn't have the people and resources to properly process and care for all the soldiers who were trying to surrender to them. Among other things, Iraq wasn't being flooded with fire and forget portable missiles that could 1 hit kill every tank in the US inventory like Ukraine is.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:04
|
|
|
Owlofcreamcheese posted:I mean, the US didn't spend many DAYS bombing iraq, but it used like 3000 missiles in a couple hours. Shock and Awe was one of the biggest bombing campaigns in all of human history. That's the opposite of what happened in 2003 though. If you were a village adjacent to the axis of advance there were unfortunately high chances that you might have a bad day if someone used it to pop mortars at the americans, but the US strategy explicitly left all the major cities intact. They didn't get bombed, they didn't get seiged. Other than Nasiriyah they were basically untouched. e: like, lots of really bad stuff happened in the Iraq war but this is just fiction. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 13:07 on Feb 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:05
|
|
|
Motivation and morale - the average Russian conscript has nearly zero reason to want to die to take Kyiv but almost every Ukrainian seems pretty loving motivated to see Russia fail. Ordering an urban assault against prepared defenses and motivated defenders with raw, unmotivated conscripts? You know how fast those units will lose cohesion?
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:09
|
|
|
Randarkman posted:Yeah, and it should be noted that the Russians don't have 3 million or the official number of active soldiers (1 million) in their invasion force against Ukraine, they have something around 200,000 and let's say around 120,000 or so of those are in combat units. The Ukrainians are outgunned, especially in the air and in armor, but I honestly don't think they are outnumbered and so far it does not appear as though the Russians have managed to effectively use their material superiority to mitigate the fact that this invasion force might not be big enough to conquer or occupy the country. Take Kyiv, maybe, if they do it quick. But encircle and isolate all major Ukrainian cities and forces as some seem to have suggested is "the plan", I don't think this is enough. I used the number of active soldiers plus reserves, but the point stands. We're also unsure about how many soldiers they have tied up in Syria, South Ossetia, Kaliningrad, etc. or in the interior of Russia. Also, the Russians might have more armor, but if it doesn't have fuel and it's broken down, it's good for nothing. Same goes for aircraft: wonder how many of their aircraft now are hangar queens and how many have been cannibalized to get working aircraft? Ultimately, the truth is this: the longer this goes on without Putin achieving his goals, Ukraine gets stronger, while Russia gets weaker. FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1497904137131991041 What's the definition of insanity? Also, pretty sure the Ukrainians know this is coming now. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 13:19 on Feb 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:12
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:That's the opposite of what happened in 2003 though. If you were a village adjacent to the axis of advance there were unfortunately high chances that you might have a bad day if someone used it to pop mortars at the americans, but the US strategy explicitly left all the major cities intact. They didn't get bombed, they didn't get seiged. Other than Nasiriyah they were basically untouched. Remember all the "badass" photos of shock and awe in bagdad? Just dumping tons and tons of missiles right into the city? And CNN being all hyped about it? 
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:12
|
|
|
Owlofcreamcheese posted:I mean, the US didn't spend many DAYS bombing iraq, but it used like 3000 missiles in a couple hours. Shock and Awe was one of the biggest bombing campaigns in all of human history. I disagree, I think if Russia gets frustrated enough it will switch strategy to bombing the rump Western Ukraine state and taking the East/South for itself. Maybe it'll spare Kiev a bit for the optics.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:16
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:So if true, this basically eliminates all Russian progress from the night, after Putin had declared that advances on all sectors in full force were ordered? Not quite all, Kharkiv took a lot of damage in the shelling.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:16
|
|
|
I think something that might be getting overlooked is that regardless of how many troops Russia massed on the border, they can probably only keep a certain number of those supplied at any given time. Each BTG is probably chewing through 100s of tons of fuel, oil, ammo, spare parts, food, water, first aid and so on every day, and that takes a fair effort to maintain. Given it looks like they're struggling to keep the forces currently deployed well supplied sending more out might not be feasible. On the comparisons with Bagdad, the US had around a fortnight to pick off defenses from the air before troops came close, and Iraq never had much capacity to strike back from the air as troops approached the city. The other thing with Russia's inability to win air superiority thus far is that their air force may be afflicted with as much rot and corruption as the ground forces are rumoured to be, and are incapable of fighting as effectively as they appear on paper. Comstar posted:This Russian remake of Kellys Heroes is getting out of hand. To be fair it's probably worth a fair bit more than Russian money at the moment.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:19
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1497904137131991041
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:20
|
|
|
JosefStalinator posted:I disagree, I think if Russia gets frustrated enough it will switch strategy to bombing the rump Western Ukraine state and taking the East/South for itself. Maybe it'll spare Kiev a bit for the optics. Unless their airpower is having the same issues their ground forces are having. Sashimi posted:Seems like a great idea with all the MANPADS flowing into Ukraine right now. They still have a working air force!
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:20
|
|
|
Comstar posted:Found it. No they don't, the T-90 is exclusively Russian, and that SPG is from the 1970s. Maybe the Z is on the other side, maybe these new entrants don't have a Z painted on them because it was meant to be over by now and they were never meant to participate in the first place?
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:22
|
|
|
NTRabbit posted:No they don't, the T-90 is exclusively Russian, and that SPG is from the 1970s. Spring came early this year. The thing the Russians didn't want to happen, happened.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:27
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:Spring came early this year. The thing the Russians didn't want to happen, happened. Global warming strikes again.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:27
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:gently caress it lets be legends dnd can choose my new name I'm still catching up with the thread, so this is probably far too late, but if not, I'll throw REFUGEE CAMP GIGOLO in the ring.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:29
|
|
|
Twincityhacker posted:Also a talked a bit with my father about this since we are reading vastly different sources - both Pro-Ukrainian, but very different otherwise - and he was surprised that Marco Rubio was the talk piece of the US goverment. If you think about it, it makes perfect sense, and Rubio might have been carefully chosen - he's someone far-right Putin shills and isolationists can't easily outflank in the battle of public opinion.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:36
|
|
|
There are claims by Ukraine that Belarus are going to official declare war too. If true, I guess Putin needs more bodies and hardware on the ground.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:40
|
|
|
Pablo Bluth posted:There are claims by Ukraine that Belarus are going to official declare war too. If true, I guess Putin needs more bodies and hardware on the ground. I mean, did Russia officiallly declare war?
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:42
|
|
|
Gonna caveat this by saying I am a student at a U.S. Military school that trains lower grade officers to be staff officers for battalions, brigades and higher. We're studying Russian and former Soviet-bloc formations and doctrine atm, so I'm still learning. Russian doctrine calls for maneuver forces (infantry, tanks) to support indirect fires. This is the reverse of U.S. doctrine. Also, a Russian BTG, as a brigade, has a hell of a lot more combat power than a U.S. Brigade when it comes to aviation, artillery, UAVs and AA. Unlike the U.S. focus on pre-planned battle drills at the squad, platoon and company level, BTGs focus on formation wide battle drills for battalions in the brigade. This makes the U.S. slower in planning as we have to game-out every deliberate engagement but also makes us calculate risk/reward more in each possible course of action. Russian formations, by doctrine, don't have to plan as much as a pre-planned battle drill just needs to be executed. My take on all this is that the BTGs aren't operating as BTGs but are being broken into BN or lower task groups. So they aren't able to operate as intended to cover each element's weaknesses. Like, a full BTG wouldn't need air support to defend against drones, it SHOULD be able to handle that itself. This is supposed to let the air force handle bombing and air superiority missions without worrying about covering the BTGs. I think we were seeing is that the battalions are undertrained in their own doctrine or are being put in positions where they can't follow it. The pre-planned battle drills are dependent on a functional BTG to execute. I think all this contributes to what we've been seeing along with all the talks of undertrained conscripts, limited artillery use (relatively speaking), morale and supply issues. gently caress you, Putin.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:43
|
|
|
Good job, Putin! You sure weakened NATO. You weakened them so much Germany is now serious about rearmament and wants to enshrine its 2% spending requirement in its constitution. Mission accomplished! https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497884141152612353?s=21
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:45
|
|
|
RIA reporting the Ukraine agreed to talks in Belarus https://ria.ru/20220227/ukraina-1775384738.html
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:45
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:RIA reporting the Ukraine agreed to talks in Belarus That's weird considering Zelensky just rejected that one. I guess we'll see but odds are just bullshit I assume.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:47
|
|
|
Can someone tell me what ships Ukraine is claiming to have sunk? I have heard almost nothing about the naval aspect of the war so far: https://twitter.com/pmesii_insider/status/1497874147627741196?s=21
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:47
|
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:Can someone tell me what ships Ukraine is claiming to have sunk? I have heard almost nothing about the naval aspect of the war so far: Wow. This operation has got to be the most lopsided in history. Ukraine has only lost 40 soldiers. That's gotta be unprecedented.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:49
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Wow. This operation has got to be the most lopsided in history. Ukraine has only lost 40 soldiers. That's gotta be unprecedented. Veeeeeeery much doubt that either Russian or Ukrainian numbers are fully accurate.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:50
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Wow. This operation has got to be the most lopsided in history. Ukraine has only lost 40 soldiers. That's gotta be unprecedented. That's gotta be fake, more like.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:51
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/canada_osint/status/1497881565715525636 Too far. Too far.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:52
|
|
|
BigglesSWE posted:Veeeeeeery much doubt that either Russian or Ukrainian numbers are fully accurate. 1 soldier died 2 aircraft crashed because pilot did woopsie
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:53
|
|
|
Bastards https://twitter.com/canada_osint/status/1497881565715525636 Looks like the An225 has been destroyed, the only one in the world, there is a second airframe at around 60% complete for over a decade stored nearby after a sale to china fell through.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:53
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Wow. This operation has got to be the most lopsided in history. Ukraine has only lost 40 soldiers. That's gotta be unprecedented. Grain of salt of course. There is always a lot of under reporting and over claiming going on in FoW scenarios like this. Thing about the total Russian dead though is that often Russians are leaving Ukraine in control of the field and it is Ukraine collecting the bodies of dead Russians. Thus the Ukrainian hotline for Russians to call to inquire if their missing Russian family member has been killed and collected by Ukraine or captured by Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:53
|
|
|
While Hungary now says they will support all sanctions against Russia, the Hungarian government owned media (say about 80%) is still pushing Russian propaganda on all channels. So much so that when I told my friend today that we are desperately trying to get our money out of Russia while its still worth something, he laughed and said we are idiots, because its obvious the Ruble will be worth more than ever before within a week, as the world visible doesn't give a gently caress about the invasion. According to him, this is the time to BUY Russian Ruble.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:54
|
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:Grain of salt of course. There is always a lot of under reporting and over claiming going on in FoW scenarios like this. There's propaganda. It's a war. accurate reporting is not a priority so I don't think we should base any assessment on what one side is claiming to have done, unless they show us the receipts, so to speak.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:54
|
|
|
I can’t help but feel a huge part of Putin’s strategy rested on Ukraine being somewhat amenable to Russian occupation, at least enough that the resistance wouldn’t be particularly intense. It would seem he has never met or talked to any Ukrainian or person of Ukrainian descent, to arrive at this worldview.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:55
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 31, 2024 09:30 |
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:Can someone tell me what ships Ukraine is claiming to have sunk? I have heard almost nothing about the naval aspect of the war so far: iirc i heard rumors of a naval battle somewhere off the coast of Odessa - i believe russian MoD claimed to sink 6 ukrainian warships (most likely some kind of light gunboats/cutters, i don't think they had that large of a fleet to begin with) that said, i'm incredibly suspicious of these claims by the ukrainian MoD, going as far as to say they're basically bullshit
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 13:56
|
|
