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Alchenar - Thanks for posting that brief analysis form @delfoo. I'm unsure of the author's experience, but the analysis seems solid.Phlegmish posted:...people earlier in the thread were pointing out that the Battle of Baghdad took several weeks...so I suppose that if Russia achieves its objectives within the following days, that's still arguably a success. Problem is that it's not very clear what those objectives even are. fatherboxx posted:It is befuddling to see them repeat The First Chechen war mistakes again with the only learnt lesson being "destroy opposition at home so its easier to not disclose the losses". Russian formations on the road are consistently not following good air defense or local security protocols. Turrets all pointed forwards; vehicles spaced tightly together; nobody outside the vehicles pulling local security when stopped; etc. It looks like a loving amateur hour. GABA ghoul posted:If even half of it turns out to be accurate I think the stripped down European broom stick armies might actually be adequately equipped to defend us. Urban Warfare stuff: General_Disturbed asked a great question around, "How does goon take city in modern warfare?" It really comes down to your political objectives. Do you need to subdue the populace? Is there an active, well-supplied, and dug-in garrison? Are you merely trying to establish that you can't be harmed? It really, really depends. In the classic sense of "capture the ground, subdue the population, install a friendly government", then you need a lot of soldiers. Think about it this way: how many police officers does it take to maintain basic order in Paris? What about Los Angeles? You need at least those many soldiers, even with a populace that's not actively trying to kill you. In terms of taking the ground itself, if the city is fortified and garrisoned, typically you isolate the city, try to get civilians out (it's the right thing to do, and they also just get in the way), and then you go in block by block. You typically need about 1,000 soldiers for every 1km of front. You'll advance around 100m a day, and take 2-10% casualties per day of those groups of 1,000 soldiers. These numbers have not meaningfully changed since WW2. (Seriously: go look at the numbers from the Second Battle of Fallujah.) US operational doctrine for hard kinetic motions against urban terrain hasn't really changed, because so many of the fundamentals are the same. Lots of tactical changes (drones; better radios; infrared and night vision), but the basics are the same. Hieronymous Alloy posted:The modern method is what the US did to Fallujah. You establish total air superiority, fly around spotting pockets of resistance, bomb them till they stop moving, move in troops to mop up. The key is combined arms, something the Soviets mastered in 19-loving-43 and were pretty good at throughout the Cold War. The supposedly very-combined-arms Battalion Tactical Groups don't seem to be doing this very well right now. Ofaloaf posted:Are there any good reads on the state of the Ukrainian military? I've been reading plenty of takes linked to from this thread about the Russian military, but I realize I've read nothing about Ukraine's armed forces.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:23
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What does Putin putting nukes on alert mean? Sorry if this has already been discussed it’s kinds old news I think.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:24
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Trump posted:War is a fascinating phenomenon. It's the absolute extreme act a human being can be involved with. I'm (was?) one of those persons you mention, and I also remember how many times we were told that exact thing on 1. semester history in uni. I'm 90% sure that when someone says "javelin" in this thread they are talking about a wide swath of modern man-portable anti-tank missiles. This isn't the cold war military hardware thread where you're getting deep into the weeds about exactly what platform everyone is using and comparing paper specs. It's more "turns out modern AT hardware actually deletes tanks."
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Feb 28, 2022 04:24
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EscapeHere posted:https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498120755976015874 I believe he's implying the devastation that Putin might subject the Ukrainian people to with intense bombing/shelling of non-military targets.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:24
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Trump posted:War is a fascinating phenomenon. It's the absolute extreme act a human being can be involved with. I'm (was?) one of those persons you mention, and I also remember how many times we were told that exact thing on 1. semester history in uni. The Javelin and NLAW are basically the two different approaches to top-attack NATO took in the 80's. The Javelin works like a little hellfire - the whole missile flies up in an arc and comes down on the top of the tank at a steep angle, so the big warhead on the front of the missile slams into the roof of the tank. The NLAW works like the TOW-2B or BILL-2. It flies right over the tank in a reasonably straight line and just as it passes overhead a shaped charge facing downwards goes off, punching a hole in the top. Both are also fire-and-forget, which is a gigantic advancement over old Cold War ATGMs. You lock the missile on the target, launch it, and the missile does the rest while you duck down and avoid any retaliation. No need to keep a laser pointed at it. No need to guide the missile in yourself.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:24
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The Swiss are thinking of approving of sanctions https://twitter.com/MKGenest/status/1498095530831929348?s=20&t=SLQlaU5XbxvbablAf1qA2w
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Feb 28, 2022 04:25
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ZombieLenin posted:loving please. You are watching a fascist state invade another developed country, you are watching that fascist state murder the loving population of that developed country and threaten the world with nuclear war. To be fair, I can understand why some may have the concern of the United States and EU expanding their influence further and wanting a better "power balance", especially in Europe. But at the end of the day the Ukrainian people have spoken in free and fair elections, and their decision should be respected.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:26
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LOL https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1498111228656324609
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Feb 28, 2022 04:26
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Trump posted:I'm feeling really dumb about this question, but I just don't see what threat NATO presents, other as being a strong player that can oppose Russia's own imperialistic goals? The main threat, as Russia perceives it, would be one to the possibility of mutually assured destruction. That would be existential in Russia's eyes. Or really any major nuclear power's. NATO is currently only relevant to Russia, though. Basically, the more NATO members, the more potential for mobility of nuclear weapons within their borders, the more MAD breaks down, and therefore the more vulnerable Russia is. That's why they threatened Finland and Sweden, too.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:27
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Boris Galerkin posted:What does Putin putting nukes on alert mean? Sorry if this has already been discussed it’s kinds old news I think. It means he's trying to be scary.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:27
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Doing some clicking around and found this post from February 6th on a Chechen Human Rights Organization website. It backs up BBC's reporting that Putin was more honest about his plans with Kadyrov than his own military. From different regions of the Chechen Republic, we are receiving reports that Kadyrov's men are being sent to the border with Ukraine. [...] This can mean only one thing - most likely, the continuation of the Russian occupation of Ukraine will soon begin, which means that disposable ones will again go forward.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:28
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Warmachine posted:I'm 90% sure that when someone says "javelin" in this thread they are talking about a wide swath of modern man-portable anti-tank missiles. Ok boss, but its primarily to credit the UK. And then I think the NLAW is a cool weapon 
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Feb 28, 2022 04:28
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This explains everything now.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:29
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EscapeHere posted:https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498120755976015874 My read is that Rubio is working with Biden as the US government mouthpiece on day to day intelligence and the US opinion of where things stand. He's getting the intelligence briefings and wouldn't be saying this stuff without some tacit agreement. And ya, that's what he's saying. The only way out is for an irrational man to act semi rational.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:29
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OddObserver posted:He did pretty well politically early, but that was I think in large part in contrast to checked out Yeltsin, which just required looking like he was paying attention. Yelstin actually stepped down early and appointed Putin before the election. Putin ran against some other old dude that had ran for president before.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:30
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Live UA is down again. (((Maximum war crimes engaged)))
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Feb 28, 2022 04:30
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DarklyDreaming posted:Paradrops usually only work as a means to outflank the enemy, and even then you're looking at heavy casualties. You either drop them far, FAR behind enemy lines where no one sees them coming and they spend days disabling rail lines and such, or you use them the same day there's a massive infantry assault on the ground. Doing it the way Russia has done this past week is how you throw men into wood-chippers That's how gay, effeminate and decadent western countries use paratroopers. They are used differently in strong and manly countries.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:31
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Upgrade posted:I think it's valid to say that some people indulge in bystander war fetishism (when you study history these types of people are the worst, those that think history is memorizing details about Nazi weapons and not, you know, understanding why those weapons were made in the first place), and there's even a little bit of that in this thread, but cheering Russia's imperialist war of aggression going poorly isn't that. I think there's a very simple self check we can all do. Go check a live stream from Kiev or wherever. If it is currently silent do you feel a wave of relief? Yes? Good, you are fine. If you don't? Uhhh... maybe have a good long think.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:31
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Love that people are realizing that Zelensky had a television and film career before he became president. It's like witnessing an alternate history where Robin Williams, instead of making Mrs. Doubtfire, became President and immediately fought in an invasion of America.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:32
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Live UA is down again. Just reload it a few times. Their server is probably close to maxed out.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:32
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Ynglaur posted:
Those are fair points yeah. What I meant with "not what tanks are for" is that you don't use them to just send them in unsupported as if swinging your big tank dick around was enough by itself to conquer a city. More substantively though, I have to wonder if this particular conflict is demonstrating that tanks are just less useful period against an opponent equipped with javelins or similar weapons, just like the machine gun meant that horse cavalry just wasn't nearly as useful any more all of a sudden.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:33
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Are there any official news about the peace talks from today? (other then Belarus shooting rockets?)
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Feb 28, 2022 04:33
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Shes Not Impressed posted:I believe he's implying the devastation that Putin might subject the Ukrainian people to with intense bombing/shelling of non-military targets. I read it as 'this is the biggest chance to escalate to nuclear warfare since the Cuban missile crisis' which uh, doesn't really make me feel great
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Feb 28, 2022 04:34
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Warmachine posted:I'm 90% sure that when someone says "javelin" in this thread they are talking about a wide swath of modern man-portable anti-tank missiles. It kinda matters because the specific military hardware in question (Javelin and NLAW) are a lot easier and safer for a random conscript to use effectively than the vast majority of the wide swathe of modern man-portable anti-tank missiles. Also very, very effective against modern Russian tanks and their newest and greatest means of protection due to the specific way they work. It's the kind of weapon that could have a disproportionate impact on the fighting.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:35
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Live UA is down again. works on my machine it's constantly getting hammered so you gotta give it a couple tries, I haven't seen it go down for real in a while
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Feb 28, 2022 04:35
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Pook Good Mook posted:My read is that Rubio is working with Biden as the US government mouthpiece on day to day intelligence and the US opinion of where things stand. He's getting the intelligence briefings and wouldn't be saying this stuff without some tacit agreement. Agree with the read on this because the Democrats aren't crying foul on what's coming out of Rubio's office. And selfishly if you are Joe Biden it drives a wedge within the Republican party on the whole issue of Russia and Trump's policy in regards to Russia.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:35
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Judakel posted:I doubt Russia will stop having buyers for its oil and gas, so I find it unlikely that they won't be able to pay their soldiers. lol at trading commodities internationally without being able to do swaps.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:35
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Alctel posted:I read it as 'this is the biggest chance to escalate to nuclear warfare since the Cuban missile crisis' which uh, doesn't really make me feel great https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZFCyMPvLd8
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Feb 28, 2022 04:36
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Vaginaface posted:Odds of Crimea going back to Ukraine? 0% Unless they intend to clear it out of humans first.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:36
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Alctel posted:I read it as 'this is the biggest chance to escalate to nuclear warfare since the Cuban missile crisis' which uh, doesn't really make me feel great To be fair he isn't wrong if only because this is a huge escalation in that regard. There have been closer calls in accidental misfires but I can't think of a higher tension time.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:37
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So something is about to happen. All of the NATO tankers which have been up 24/7 for the last 2 weeks in Poland and Romania basically all just bugged out back home with nothing to replace them. As the saying goes "No one kicks rear end without tanker gas."
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Feb 28, 2022 04:38
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Alctel posted:I read it as 'this is the biggest chance to escalate to nuclear warfare since the Cuban missile crisis' which uh, doesn't really make me feel great We are living in historic times, in the absolutely worst way possible. Djarum posted:So something is about to happen. All of the NATO tankers which have been up 24/7 for the last 2 weeks in Poland and Romania basically all just bugged out back home with nothing to replace them. As the saying goes "No one kicks rear end without tanker gas." Could be they have their transponders turned off, but yeah, that still signals something might go down. Had a conversation with another dane in a thread on facebook, where we shared the interesting thing we had seen on the flight tracker the last days. He said "yeah, but when all of the aircrafts suddenly dissappear, that's when poo poo is going to go down" So, yeah, hope it's nothing. Trump fucked around with this message at 04:42 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 04:38
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Shes Not Impressed posted:I believe he's implying the devastation that Putin might subject the Ukrainian people to with intense bombing/shelling of non-military targets. yeah, on that, if the leaked memos were correct, the endgame was annexation. That presumably took Groznyfying Ukraine's cities off the table, off the mission, and out of the question. That may explain why armor isn't just ignoring live civilian obstacles on the road and continuing forward so as not to alienate the intended subjugated further. Perhaps there was even a "hearts and minds" component but I grant it more likely that tank drivers are simply too human to do that. I do hope that commanders too are too human to do the unthinkable. Are Belarusian units likely, or not, to have similar scruples? e: that sounds kinda racist, "are Belarusian less human than Russians" so apologies but the question stands. the popes toes fucked around with this message at 04:42 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 04:39
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Alctel posted:I read it as 'this is the biggest chance to escalate to nuclear warfare since the Cuban missile crisis' which uh, doesn't really make me feel great It's not wrong though unfortunately.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:40
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Pook Good Mook posted:My read is that Rubio is working with Biden as the US government mouthpiece on day to day intelligence and the US opinion of where things stand. He's getting the intelligence briefings and wouldn't be saying this stuff without some tacit agreement. What are "catastrophic consequences"? Catastrophic for him, like backing down? Catastrophic for Ukraine? Or something else?
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Feb 28, 2022 04:41
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the popes toes posted:yeah, on that, if the leaked memos were correct, the endgame was annexation. That presumably took Groznyfying Ukraine's cities off the table, off the mission, and out of the question. That may explain why armor isn't just ignoring live civilian obstacles on the road and continuing forward so as not to alienate the intended subjugated further. Perhaps there was even a "hearts and minds" component but I grant it more likely that tank drivers are simply too human to do that. I do hope that commanders too are too human to do the unthinkable. Belarussian units are utilized for intimidating journalists and stealing aid. So hopefully they put seeds in their pockets like the ukrainians grandmas have been asking the Russians to do.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:41
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Barrel Cactaur posted:Going to object that NATO is a militaristic tool, not an imperialist tool. I don't think its ever established a hostile extractive system on foreign territory. It encourages military interventions, but claiming thats imperialism is very, very weak. To be clear, that is still very bad but it largely lacks the malicious greed of true empire-building. The main concern is NATO as 'world police'. Maybe this works if there is a well established world government, but the US is one of the biggest influencers and has biases. What is the correct pretext to invade a country and who should set these rules?
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Feb 28, 2022 04:41
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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498125577315827720 From that thread: https://twitter.com/BA_Friedman/status/1498110437304508421 Russia still has a huge materiel and manpower lead, that's for sure; still, worth wondering if the calculus shifts if Ukraine has access to basically indefinite material from its Polish border. Russian materiel losses would be slower to replace in that case, it's not just about devastating Ukraine's cities and calling it a day Eastern European publics are already invested politically in a Russian loss so even levelling Kyiv might not be enough to break the flow of equipment to militias in a 44m country Russia has the rest of Russia's interests in west/central Asia to think about
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Feb 28, 2022 04:41
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Djarum posted:So something is about to happen. All of the NATO tankers which have been up 24/7 for the last 2 weeks in Poland and Romania basically all just bugged out back home with nothing to replace them. As the saying goes "No one kicks rear end without tanker gas." These were refueling the Ukrainians I assume?
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Feb 28, 2022 04:42
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Grape posted:I think there's a very simple self check we can all do. I'm glad it's quiet. The steam I'm watching has a camera right by the Refugee Center in Kyiv and it looks like they're taking advantage of the lull to get some people out, or at least to safer spots in the city 
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Feb 28, 2022 04:42
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