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https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1498158566636761088 That's never a good sign now is it?
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Feb 28, 2022 06:01
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Do we think that there are any NATO military folks who are on good terms with their peers in the Russian Military? Is it possible that there's backchannel discussions about trying to keep things relatively cool? I don't know how often things like this happen but I have to imagine some of them know their opposites well enough to be like "WTF is going on over there?"
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Feb 28, 2022 06:01
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SlurredSpeech609 posted:And I know Ukraine isn't in nato but would the world sit there and watch that happen? No
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Feb 28, 2022 06:01
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Fritz the Horse posted:Anxieties are running high but I don't think speculation about nuclear war is very productive right now, kinda Clancychat. Agreed on the nukes, however TBH, I think the whole "CLANCYCHAT" thing is a little ironic right? The largest country in the Europe led by an unhinged dictator has just invaded the second largest country in Europe, sparking the region's largest conventional war since World War II. This would be the basis for a Clancy novel; and as little as months ago it would have been clancychat to even discuss Russia launching a no-poo poo, full-scale invasion of Ukraine to occupy the entire thing instead of just the Eastern portion.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:02
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JerikTelorian posted:Do we think that there are any NATO military folks who are on good terms with their peers in the Russian Military? Is it possible that there's backchannel discussions about trying to keep things relatively cool? Well there is an article in Politico today about the Pentagon wanting to open backchannels for just that reason. I imagine things in Russia right now are "fluid" at best. The next 24-48 hours are going to be some of the most interesting of our lifetimes. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/27/pentagon-moscow-backchannel-escalation-00012107
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Feb 28, 2022 06:04
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My military training is mostly in naval warfare which has limited usefulness in a land war, but many concepts are similar. I am now a doctor but was previously a line (combat) officer in the US Navy - I was a strike officer and Air Defense specialist. My analysis, based on the limited information/propaganda that I have been studying (albeit from pretty good sources): 1. The shocking thing about the Russian battle plan to this point is their utter inability or lack of motivation (possibly due to concerns for civilian casualties) to prepare the battlefield for invasion. Their first strike capability seems poor - cruise missile(long range) and MLRS (medium to short range) attacks have been sporadic, inaccurate, and seemingly ineffective. My guess is that they have limited conventional ability for guided or precision first strike and thus require relative proximity to the enemy to prepare the battle space for infantry advance. Their C2 appears poor, ie. first strike and preparation has no relation to ground reality due to poor communications/intelligence. US doctrine is different but focuses on demoralizing surgical strikes based on excellent coordinated intelligence and ground unit, forward air controller autonomy to direct overwhelming over the horizon (Tomahawk/Drone) air to ground fire. 2. Air superiority covers up many sins and the Russians are failing badly here. They seem unable or unwilling to dominate the air battle space. They seem to be sparing their high technology AW assets either due to fears of losing these units (see first Iraq war where the US did not commit nuclear aircraft carriers to the Arabian gulf due to fears of losing a unit to the notional Iraqi surface to surface missile capability). Their EW capability has fallen short and they apparently fear or are sustaining AD kills from old rear end UKR AD systems. 3. Special forces and elite units have underperformed - the failure to take the airfields surrounding Kiev, despite their short distance was a gigantic failure and likely has lead to their inability to penetrate Kyiv. Massed attacks cannot succeed in modern warfare without adequate special forces penetration into contested battle spaces. 4. Wars are won with logistics. While many point to the fact that it took the US a month to advance to Bahgdad during the last Iraq war, the US was operating on the other side of the world or very distant from its centers of power and was relying on mobile and sea based units to prepare the battlefield. The US ability to maintain and rearm units tens of thousands of miles from home is unmatched and is under appreciated. Russia appears to have logistical issues resupplying units from a country it borders. 5. UKR has been successful in attacking salients and Russia appears unwilling or unable to full protect their flanks. Russias reliance on armor, outmoded air power and tactics, and conservative battle plans with seemingly weak special forces support seem to be a huge problem. The US would absolutely loving roll Russia, and sensing weakness the US is now going to drop the hammer economically and dare Russia to do anything. This is particularly dangerous with a nuclear power, especially one that is known to have plans to unleash tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield in situations where they are overwhelmed.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:05
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Dilkington fucked around with this message at 10:36 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 06:05
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JerikTelorian posted:Do we think that there are any NATO military folks who are on good terms with their peers in the Russian Military? Is it possible that there's backchannel discussions about trying to keep things relatively cool? Seeing as the Russian army etc military is fed complete horseshit all day long I don't think so. What do you mean by keep things cool? They are blowing up loving oil deoos and nuclear radiation storage centers aswell as children's cancer hospitals. Cool is far from the word I'd use
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Feb 28, 2022 06:05
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Re: tank talk From the videos I've seen of the destroyed tanks, most of them are on roads. I think the Russians are trying to move quickly so they're staying in columns on roads to get to their destination quickly - I think this was their TTP in the cold war era. So, it doesn't seem like they're deploying into tactical formations and spreading out to make use of the advantages that modern tanks offer. Modern tanks have crazy good optics with stabilizing systems that can extend the effective range for their MGs as well as their cannons. In the US army, at least, we do a lot of drills where you're acquiring targets from hull defilade, popping up for no more than 5 seconds, taking a shot, then going back down to reload. In the attack, you're basically fighting from position to position like this and trying to destroy your enemy from as far out as possible.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:06
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ronya posted:I suppose it's reflective on what Russians might be thinking, at the minimum It is reflective of the situtian at a conventional level, which the UKA is still at a major disadvantage. And while the RAF cannot block every road into Kiev, they can/will definitily block the 3 major highways coming in from the West. The question is if the UKA attempt to keep those lines clear or not, which will be very diffilcult without air superiority.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:08
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Ashmole posted:Re: tank talk The tanks seem to be being utilized as mobile bunkers more than tanks. And seemingly as a scare tactic.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:08
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Djarum posted:Well there is an article in Politico today about the Pentagon wanting to open backchannels for just that reason. I imagine things in Russia right now are "fluid" at best. The next 24-48 hours are going to be some of the most interesting of our lifetimes. Those backchannels already exist and have always existed. Unofficial chat between counterparts at embassies has always been the norm. In this case, defense attaches would be chatting the gently caress out of each other. At some point, one of those chats is meaningful and another backchannel starts. It's not espionage, it's just one of ways countries suss each other out. It's neither covert or public, just recognized as useful by both sides.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:09
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OctaMurk posted:Agreed on the nukes, however TBH, I think the whole "CLANCYCHAT" thing is a little ironic right? The largest country in the Europe led by an unhinged dictator has just invaded the second largest country in Europe, sparking the region's largest conventional war since World War II. This would be the basis for a Clancy novel; and as little as months ago it would have been clancychat to even discuss Russia launching a no-poo poo, full-scale invasion of Ukraine to occupy the entire thing instead of just the Eastern portion. The whole thing is there's a fine line running between being a proper skeptic of a theory and falling victim to the normalcy bias. For months there was strong and clear evidence that a Russian attack on Ukraine was imminent, which people chose to reject. There is no evidence that Putin is planning a nuclear strike. It's just speculation.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:09
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Ashmole posted:Re: tank talk If I understand the terrain correctly, the choice is to either risk roads or get devoured by mud.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:11
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How much longer is the mud thought to last for?
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Feb 28, 2022 06:13
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Yudo posted:If I understand the terrain correctly, the choice is to either risk roads or get devoured by mud. I believe they invaded right now because the ground is still frozen which is why they only postponed the invasion by a few days. But I don't know how the ground is so maybe it's that
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Feb 28, 2022 06:14
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Yudo posted:If I understand the terrain correctly, the choice is to either risk roads or get devoured by mud. You are correct. The frozen ground was going to be a huge boon to tank mobility and the delays that may have occured hosed this plan up. Now they have to use roads or sink. And sometimes they sink because of lack in experience.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:14
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More Russian perspectives https://twitter.com/DanielBerman2/status/1498134385828278276
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Feb 28, 2022 06:14
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Ashmole posted:I believe they invaded right now because the ground is still frozen which is why they only postponed the invasion by a few days. But I don't know how the ground is so maybe it's that It's been a very warm winter in Ukraine apparently, much like the rest of the world due to global warming. So there were shots of Russian tanks bogged and stranded in the mud, and the more time goes on, the less navigable anything but the roads will be.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:15
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Dick Ripple posted:It is reflective of the situtian at a conventional level, which the UKA is still at a major disadvantage. And while the RAF cannot block every road into Kiev, they can/will definitily block the 3 major highways coming in from the West. The question is if the UKA attempt to keep those lines clear or not, which will be very diffilcult without air superiority. I mean, maybe--the map seems to exaggerate Russian positions, at least compared to other maps I've seen, although maybe there is better information out there (I suspect bias, given the content of the Twitter feed, but I don't really know). It's true that UKA is likely at a major disadvantage conventionally, but I'm not sure that's anything we haven't known since the beginning.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:15
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Judakel posted:The fact the morale isn't that high to begin with, what with handing out guns to random people, some of whom commit crimes with them, an oddly high number of saboteurs in Ukrainian uniform that look more and more like deserters, and the Mayor of Kyiv admitting that controlling the anxiety of his people is one of the bigger challenges right now. Well, at least not that high right now. Maybe it was to begin with... You aren't a good person. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 28, 2022 06:16
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Im curious about two things: from what people are posting it’s clear the US military constantly trains, does Russia? And how does the Russian military forces compare to the rest of Europe?
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Feb 28, 2022 06:16
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Even that map is not that impressive. Technically the Russians have been able to enforce their positions since the start of the war, they share a border and also have a client state sharing a border. They've taken some ground but nothing that could be considered even close to victory. And the longer they fail to attain that victory the better.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:17
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the popes toes posted:Those backchannels already exist and have always existed. Unofficial chat between counterparts at embassies has always been the norm. In this case, defense attaches would be chatting the gently caress out of each other. At some point, one of those chats is meaningful and another backchannel starts. It's not espionage, it's just one of ways countries suss each other out. It's neither covert or public, just recognized as useful by both sides. The article goes into that, most diplomats were told to disengage from their Russian counterparts. The military has been trying to make contact with Russian counterparts for a variety of reasons, most notably there has been evidently several close calls between US/NATO and Russian aircraft in the theater. Russia isn't answering the phone though.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:17
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Dick Ripple posted:It is reflective of the situtian at a conventional level, which the UKA is still at a major disadvantage. And while the RAF cannot block every road into Kiev, they can/will definitily block the 3 major highways coming in from the West. The question is if the UKA attempt to keep those lines clear or not, which will be very diffilcult without air superiority. true - but the UKA isn't the one with a long supply convoy to support in this engagement. Can the RAF cover enough roads to be reasonably sure that their back is not just full of lurking NLAWs? It was pointed out very early in the war that the Russian mobilization involved, even though enormous, is still tiny for meaningfully occupying a country the size of France - this is not a total war WW2 level of mobilization, for sure. ronya fucked around with this message at 06:20 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 06:18
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Pook Good Mook posted:Federal emergency broadcast would blast out on TV, radio, and cell phones. Air raid or tornado sirens would go off. Depending on when they detected the launches, you might have time to get to a basement or shelter. Might. A Russian submarine based ballistic nuclear weapon, with multiple independent warheads of megaton range, would arrive with little or no warning, a long range ICBM from the Russian mainland would be detected but still would likely not be intercepted (although we would try, and have this capability). Russian submarines are well known to operate regularly off both the east and west coast of the US. It would be unlikely that air raid/text warnings would be transmitted until the US already had a retaliatory strike in the air and thus cities were already destroyed. The best case would be that any Russian submarine was interdicted and destroyed prior to launch, after the weapons are in the air its over.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:18
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Xotl posted:How much longer is the mud thought to last for?
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Feb 28, 2022 06:18
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Upgrade posted:Im curious about two things: from what people are posting it’s clear the US military constantly trains, does Russia? And how does the Russian military forces compare to the rest of Europe? Well. That's kind of a bad comparison. Russian army is obviously loving poo poo meant only to peaveleep against bandits or work for the bandits. They are conscripted young kids and have very little combat experience. The better ones go to Wagner or abroad as mercs. Everyone else gets the gently caress out as soon as they can. Everyone is a buffalo soldier in Russia. The European army's are getting larger after all the Russian aggression poo poo. But they are heavily underfunded intentionally. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:21 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 06:18
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Ashmole posted:Re: tank talk As others have pointed out, they are also attacking during the spring thaw. The reason the tanks are sticking to the roads is because the fields are effectively impassable.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:20
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This is half a breath short of just saying "every race should divide into one country for each." loving people 
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Feb 28, 2022 06:22
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Djarum posted:The article goes into that, most diplomats were told to disengage from their Russian counterparts. The military has been trying to make contact with Russian counterparts for a variety of reasons, most notably there has been evidently several close calls between US/NATO and Russian aircraft in the theater. Russia isn't answering the phone though. Yeah, there's a public disengagement, which prohibits presence at certain public functions, and there's private disengagement which really doesn't happen. There is always discussion. At the worst of times, and we're not there, that chat is mediated by an unengaged country counterpart.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:24
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Moscow Exchange posted:28.02.2022 06:13
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Feb 28, 2022 06:24
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Djarum posted:https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1498158566636761088 If they opened it, they would have been criminally incompetent and caused a run on the banks.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:26
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MrMojok posted:Wow. If anonymous wants to hack a Russian tv feed with something, they should do it with this, not Ukrainian folk songs.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:26
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In a right wing voice: look at how the (((globalists))) massacred by boy (putin)
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Feb 28, 2022 06:26
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I do wonder if Putin really is suffering from serious health issues at the moment. If so that could make him incredibly dangerous and unstable in his decision making in a crisis like this. https://twitter.com/DavidYankovich/status/1498167232123346947
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Feb 28, 2022 06:30
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498168570123063298?s=20&t=wH6R0Ef5g1RP_5KVeqLNhA More missile strikes in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhia, and Chernihiv
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Feb 28, 2022 06:31
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Cool old Putin is going full Makarov
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Feb 28, 2022 06:32
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Hamelekim posted:I do wonder if Putin really is suffering from serious health issues at the moment. If so that could make him incredibly dangerous and unstable in his decision making in a crisis like this. He’s older and fatter, there’s no need to brainstorm conspiracies where he’s taking the whole world with him because he’s terminal or some poo poo.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:32
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Deteriorata posted:Another dawn breaks in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. This is going to sound dumb but I can't really go to bed at night until I see the sun rise over Ukrainian Kyiv. It's not magical thinking, I'm not causing this to happen. It just might not happen much more in the near future.
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Feb 28, 2022 06:35
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