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NTRabbit
Aug 15, 2012

i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches




EvilHawk posted:

Where are you seeing that? There was some chat yesterday about what Turkey could and couldn't do according to a treaty I've forgotten the name of, but I haven't seen anything since.

Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits

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Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right:

https://twitter.com/defencewithac/status/1498199000733949963

with a rebel yell she QQd
Jan 18, 2007

Villain


Orban announced Hungary is not giving weapons to Ukraine, because he is worried the weapons could be used against the ethnic Hungarians living in Ukraine.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
from a few pages back:

ronya posted:

Answers Me posted:

I'm fully aware that we're in 'It's too late for anything else' territory now, but 'what if our international empires and trading blocs were even bigger and more polarised' is only kicking the can down the road, and will likely lead to bigger catastrophes and/or a shitload of collateral damage in the meantime. People like to read this situation like it's a Cold War speed run but I'm picking up more 'eve of WW1' vibes in terms of imperial powers butting heads and getting themselves into messes that can't be cleaned up.

wrong war; if you want the sanctions->war between global powers speedrun, the 1940 economic sanctions against Japan for its occupation of French Indochina is a better fit

quote:

But the ploy worked, and on Friday, July 25, FDR announced Executive Order No. 8832. The executive order, which came into effect the next day, froze Japanese-owned American dollars in their bank accounts and prevented the acquisition of more dollars. Great Britain and the Dutch Indies soon followed, further increasing Japan’s trade isolation. On Monday, July 28, when the bankers and traders returned to work, both countries saw immediate changes to their financial markets. International bank branches in both countries closed. Japanese silk futures were suspended, and stocks for firms producing rayon (a silk substitute) rose. Soon after the executive order was issued, negotiations between the two countries centered on thawing the financial freeze. The Department of State remained resolute in its enforcement of the freeze, restricting licenses for trade down to the bare legal essentials, such as allowing for the fulfillment of pre-freeze orders and granting Japanese ships dollars in order to return to their home country. Japanese officials and merchants pursued alternative schemes and loopholes to get around the sanctions, but none worked. Although Japan had stockpiled a significant amount of gold before 1941, it was not allowed to cash it in at the U.S. Treasury for dollars, and U.S. traders were prohibited from purchasing the gold because of the Trading with the Enemy Act.

In order to properly understand the effect the financial freeze had on Japan, one must understand the ideology behind the Japanese expansion. To the Japanese, their imperial conquest was vital in order to form what was disingenuously called the “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.” Since the days of the Russo-Japanese War and the origins of War Plan Orange, Japan sought to become a legitimate Great Power. In Japan’s eyes, the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity sphere would “contribute to world peace.” According to historian Michael A. Barnhart, “The United States was what Japan wanted to be—rich in resources, internally strong, and dependent on no one.” Japan had learned from Germany in World War I that nations needed to have economic prosperity and independence in the new age of total warfare, where all forms of production, expertise, and skill must be mobilized against the enemy. A sudden freeze on dollars and petroleum could ruin Japan’s whole plan. As Matsuoka said in January 1941 in response to his American counterpart Hull, “The United States has evinced no adequate understanding of the fact that the establishment of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere is a life-or-death requirement for Japan.” Japan believed that it had as much right as the United States to, in the style of Alfred Thayer Mahan, establish military posts across the Pacific for its own defense.

Clearly, FDR and his cabinet did not realize that Japan would push back against the financial freeze. According to historian Jonathan Utley, the freeze was optimistically meant to be “a final warning, designed to bring Japan to its senses, not its knees.” In possibly the greatest strategic blunder on the American side, American officials never truly imagined that Japan would attack the United States. ...

A swathe of similarities - retaliation against a widely denounced invasion amidst the widely-accepted incapacity of the United League of Nations on the issue, steep measures due to perceived lack of effectiveness of uncoordinated sanctions on earlier invasions (Manchurian crisis), focus on completely freezing financial options including stockpiled reserves intended to mitigate future sanctions, an asymmetric sense of the impacts of sanctions in Japan (desperate for American oil and steel to sustain its ongoing wars) and the US (to whom it was just more financial engineering)

nonetheless, to be clear, this is of limited relevance from a pre-nuclear world (and more importantly a pre-MFN world - economic sanctions were a lot deadlier before the global GATT system), but if insofar is one is searching for historic analogies, there it is

in terms of more recent freezes, Myanmar's reserves at the Fed were frozen in March last year and Afghanistan in August, although neither are in an (active) international war context

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

KitConstantine posted:

They've been members of Kadyrov's personal army, not just regular Chechen units. I've been referring to the groups of Chechens who've been involved as 'Kadyrov's men' rather than just 'Chechen units' for this reason.

IIRC most of the time when the Ukrainians are referring to them, they call them "Kadyrovites" rather than the more general Chechens used by Western media.

For what it's worth, I can easily imagine they have better cohesion and are more experienced than what seems to be the case for the regular Russian soldiers we've, I also think it's pretty obvious that their strength as it were is not in conventional assaults against prepared positions, but rather in "pacification".

3D Megadoodoo
Nov 25, 2010

Alchenar posted:

This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right:

https://twitter.com/defencewithac/status/1498199000733949963

The goober on Twitter is going to look mighty stupid when Putin uses nuclear weapons.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Dapper_Swindler posted:

isn't cuba have mostly fine trade with alot of south/central America and Europe/etc. like its not great at all but i assume most of the stuff was US based.

Cuba is fine to trade with pretty much anyone who isn't the US.

Man Plan Canal
Jul 11, 2000

Listen to the madman

Fame Douglas posted:

Cuba isn't cut off from most of the world, just the US. There's trade with Europe, and you can buy Cuban goods (Havana Club, the real one, primarily) in pretty much every European supermarket.

When I moved to Europe I bought some Cuban rum on an online delivery service, accidentally used my US paypal account, and literally got an email yelling at me for trying to violate the embargo. Kind of insane. Biden hasn't drone striked me yet, but I did need to call the liquor store and arrange alternate payment

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

you're overthinking it imo. putin wants kharkiv or kyiv captured by today. kharkiv is the weaker target. failure means sugoy is fired or should be scared of balconies. therefore take kharkiv at all costs./

Unless something has significantly changed on the ground, I don’t believe the RAIN can achieve either no matter how many bodies and thermoberic they throw at it.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

StarBegotten posted:

One thing that's surprised me so far is how quiet Joe Biden has been in all of this, you might have thought as "Leader of the free world" and America's major role in NATO that he would become the state figurehead in all this.

But so far the EU, and in particular Ursula von der Leyen, seems to have been stealing all the limelight and be seen to be making all the big decisions.

Dont get me wrong, I think that's a good thing, but I find it striking none the less.

It’s a deliberate strategy to rebuild relations after trump to let the Europeans take the lead and America not hog the spotlight.

Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

Not wildly dissimilar to the sanctions the US and Europeans imposed on Japan, but those were instituted more gradually over the course of several years.

Japan and (West) Germany are a little different in that their governments were set up to be able to work with the US, though both had reason to choose a working relationship with the US over the USSR. Both ended up becoming staunch allies, and have numerous US bases to this day (and I lived on one in Okinawa!).

Edit: Oh, I see, you're talking about the sanctions pre-US entry.

Red fucked around with this message at 14:47 on Feb 28, 2022

Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.

Dapper_Swindler posted:

isn't cuba have mostly fine trade with alot of south/central America and Europe/etc. like its not great at all but i assume most of the stuff was US based.

Ah, that's true - I'm still stuck in the "US closed you off, which means the world" thinking we've been pumped with forever.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Interesting, apparently there is talk to connect Ukraine to the European electricity grid.
(CW: German) https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticke...mnetz-verbinden

Machine translation:

The European Commission is planning to connect Ukraine's electricity grid to the continental European grid. EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson discussed the proposal with the European Network Operators Association ENTSO-E, as she announced on Twitter. The project was also to be discussed at the crisis meeting of EU energy ministers in the afternoon.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Mr. Apollo posted:

Yeah, he's older, fatter, and has a ton of botox, filler, and plastic surgery.

Also his COVID quarantine doesn't seem to have treated him well. He's probably spent the last couple of years in his empty palace watching satellite tv. Give it a few more years and his transformation to Donald Trump will be complete.

Warmachine
Jan 30, 2012



I hear a good deal of hem-hawing about Nazis in this war, and why you should support one horse over another because fascists, but for the life of me I thought that literally both the Russians and the Ukrainians had their own contingents of fascists and thus neither side was particularly clean on that front.

Is there a nice primer on Ukraine and Russia's fascist problems somewhere? I'd rather be informed before I go scream at more leftists to stop clutching their pearls for justification to support an expansionist war.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Ola posted:

It's just smack talk. "Deadline is Feb 31st".

https://twitter.com/MABukhari04/status/1498068234410635267

Deadline is February 31st. Is this a weird Russian calendar thing or is this guy just an idiot?

Fame Douglas
Nov 20, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Alchenar posted:

This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right:

https://twitter.com/defencewithac/status/1498199000733949963

I preferred it when Tom Clany still published his fiction as novels.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Fame Douglas posted:

I preferred it when Tom Clany still published his fiction as novels.

It's far too long to be a Clancy novel.

Fame Douglas
Nov 20, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Antigravitas posted:

Interesting, apparently there is talk to connect Ukraine to the European electricity grid.
(CW: German) https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticke...mnetz-verbinden

Machine translation:

The European Commission is planning to connect Ukraine's electricity grid to the continental European grid. EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson discussed the proposal with the European Network Operators Association ENTSO-E, as she announced on Twitter. The project was also to be discussed at the crisis meeting of EU energy ministers in the afternoon.

This February, a five day disconnection from the Russian power grid was planned to test the stability of the Ukrainian power grid standalone, to prepare for connection to the European grid. This has been planned for a long time.

I assume due to the war, plans are getting accelerated now.

Warmachine
Jan 30, 2012



Fame Douglas posted:

I preferred it when Tom Clany still published his fiction as novels.

The fact that reading that will require me to parse an arbitrary number of 233 character posts in a system designed for making quick quippy advertisements is a loving travesty of the modern age.

Ban Twitter Forever.

a podcast for cats
Jun 22, 2005

Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."
Soiled Meat

Alchenar posted:

This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right:

https://twitter.com/defencewithac/status/1498199000733949963

I also fear that the situation could be significantly more serious than the triumphant posts on social media let on. Based exactly on how uncharacteristically direct the European response has been.

nurmie
Dec 8, 2019

Alchenar posted:

This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right:

https://twitter.com/defencewithac/status/1498199000733949963

I think I agree with most if not everything stated there, unfortunately :smith: I'd brace for another 2008-style global economic crisis, and it's going to get worse the longer this loving shitshow lingers on.

3D Megadoodoo posted:

The goober on Twitter is going to look mighty stupid when Putin uses nuclear weapons.

Can we please put a temporary ban on the words "nuclear weapons" in this thread or something

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

Warmachine posted:

I hear a good deal of hem-hawing about Nazis in this war, and why you should support one horse over another because fascists, but for the life of me I thought that literally both the Russians and the Ukrainians had their own contingents of fascists and thus neither side was particularly clean on that front.

pretty much every eastern european country has a number of far right militias yes. Its hosed up but I would argue they do not represent Ukraine, a democratic country with a jewish president.

nurmie
Dec 8, 2019

a podcast for cats posted:

I also fear that the situation could be significantly more serious than the triumphant posts on social media let on. Based exactly on how uncharacteristically direct the European response has been.

It is; the majority of the Ukrainian standing army is about to be encircled and trapped in the east. They don't seem to have been moving around much, so all the disadvantages experienced by the Russian forces (rasputitsa, exposed travelling along roads, logistics overextension) will start hitting them, and it's probably going to be a far greater problem for them.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

nurmie posted:

Can we please put a temporary ban on the words "nuclear weapons" in this thread or something

yes please

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



Do flight bans amount to anything more than an inconvenience when you can fly from Moscow to say, Dubai and then anywhere you want? Or is more to do with messing with trade shipping routes

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

ZombieLenin posted:

Deadline is February 31st. Is this a weird Russian calendar thing or is this guy just an idiot?

I think it's a joke. Just read the individual points.

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020



Agree with this. If somebody wants to start WW3 ClancyChat The Only Winning Move Is Not To Play: The Thread, I'd probably participate. Otherwise it'll just derail this one every time it comes up.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

steinrokkan posted:

I think it's a joke. Just read the individual points.

Yeah, I did find myself thinking “I find it highly doubtful any member of the UK government has assets in banks located in Chechnya.”

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22
like I'm sure there's some value for people to discuss Russia's nuclear use doctrine and its applicability in this situation somewhere on the forums, but what people here are doing is masturbatory doomposting and it's loving annoying

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Alchenar posted:

This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right:

https://twitter.com/defencewithac/status/1498199000733949963

Bleak thread, but also kind of what I expect to be honest.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

like I'm sure there's some value for people to discuss Russia's nuclear use doctrine and its applicability in this situation somewhere on the forums, but what people here are doing is masturbatory doomposting and it's loving annoying

Agreed. It is fear mongering at this point to wax on about crazy Vlad Putin and his scheme to delete the world (and Russia) in the process.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

nurmie posted:

It is; the majority of the Ukrainian standing army is about to be encircled and trapped in the east. They don't seem to have been moving around much, so all the disadvantages experienced by the Russian forces (rasputitsa, exposed travelling along roads, logistics overextension) will start hitting them, and it's probably going to be a far greater problem for them.

We have absolutely no idea where the Ukrainian standing army currently is, and for good reason.

There's currently no reason to expect that they've all just been stood on the border with Donbas/Luhansk watching the Russians slowly encircle them.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Alchenar posted:

This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right:

https://twitter.com/defencewithac/status/1498199000733949963

genuine questions I have with this forecast:

- does Russia have enough boots on the ground to shut down not only every highway but every country and farm road? That is, is encirclement and blockade really on the table? Does Russia want to blockade the eastern cities and towns rather than encouraging people to flee?
- a active-duty serviceman puts on a t-shirt and jeans, gets in their civvie car, and joins the very normal flow of people fleeing to Lviv; does anyone really stop them even if they drive past a Russian infantry carrier in open daylight? It's not like the UA really suffers ditching their materiel as long as more mysteriously appears in Lviv
- conversely, food and ammunition travelling the other way, not necessarily to the cities but to backcountry towns and villages?

CuddleCryptid
Jan 11, 2013

Things could be going better

steinrokkan posted:

I think it's a joke. Just read the individual points.

It might be a joke but he is right about the tea and should say it

uncleTomOfFinland
May 25, 2008

Finnish support for NATO membership has exceeded 50% according to a fresh poll. This is the first time in history we are seeing numbers anything like this.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

EvilHawk posted:

We have absolutely no idea where the Ukrainian standing army currently is, and for good reason.

There's currently no reason to expect that they've all just been stood on the border with Donbas/Luhansk watching the Russians slowly encircle them.

Correct; and the vast majority of the UA’s mechanized forces are being held in reserve and have not even been engaged yet.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

EvilHawk posted:

There's currently no reason to expect that they've all just been stood on the border with Donbas/Luhansk watching the Russians slowly encircle them.

Haven't there been quite a lot of reports of very heavy fighting in the area?

ZombieLenin posted:

Correct; and the vast majority of the UA’s mechanized forces are being held in reserve and have not even been engaged yet.

Source?

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

ZombieLenin posted:

Yeah, I did find myself thinking “I find it highly doubtful any member of the UK government has assets in banks located in Chechnya.”

Tbh that's the most plausible part of the whole thing imo, but overall yeah it's very lolpenguin random meme energy for a brutal warlord

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TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

ronya posted:

Does Russia want to blockade the eastern cities and towns rather than encouraging people to flee?

There was a press release earlier today I think where they said any civilian who wanted to flee Kyiv would be allowed to do so. I assume they are going to offer the same to other cities.

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