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Randarkman posted:Honestly that one Russian guy's article about how this was goign to turn out and the capabilities of the Russian military that was published a couple of weeks before the invasion has been the most compelling thing I've read on this. Can you post a link to this? I'm legitimately nerding out on all the Russian military info (BTG's vs. our BCT's, Chechen Saudaukar apparently, etc.)
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Feb 28, 2022 15:57
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slowdave posted:Love random fuckin guys on twitter with the confidence of a mainstream pundit 👍 Using a picture of a troll from God of War game as their profile picture who is quoting Adam Smith on their personal blog. Jesus gently caress. Maybe he's right but why is he being quoted as some pundit worth listening to?
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Feb 28, 2022 15:57
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Dapper_Swindler posted:agreed. i am also mixed on the "ukraine will give in" like yeah they probably will but all the russian war crimes poo poo will do is stiffin resolve and have Ukrainians get even more weapons. i also think russia is probably doing way way worse then he acts. Yeah historically speaking the use of terror weapons on civilians just turns all the civilians into partisans. See: the v2 rocket and the Blitz.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:57
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bolind posted:This means very little if you're currently being cluster bombed in Kharkiv, but Denmark is seriously considering renaming the street where the Russian embassy resides to "Ukraine Street". Toss a Molotov in the drivers hatch and retire speedily
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Feb 28, 2022 15:58
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Medium Chungus posted:Can you post a link to this? I'm legitimately nerding out on all the Russian military info (BTG's vs. our BCT's, Chechen Saudaukar apparently, etc.) It was posted in this thread sometime yesterday, possibly during the night. I'll look for it later, but possibly someone else here has the link handy. It's in Russian, but google translate will get across the content just fine.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:59
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3D Megadoodoo posted:OK thanks. I think if there was even a hint of hyperinflation, I'd've heard about it from not Twitter already. Higher energy prices was a given the moment this thing started. yeah the only thing i agree with is if clancy poo poo happens, putin will get shot in the head either by sane Russians leadership/trying to save own skin or some Deniable assets. i just think he is bad with economics plus overly grim about ukrains chances(they probably wont beat russia out of the country but its clear they can probably hold various lines. plus Europe/US/etc dumping cash/guns/assets/intelligence/etc)
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Feb 28, 2022 16:00
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A prediction: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498308649680318469
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Feb 28, 2022 16:00
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Russia isn't winning anything unless you take an incredibly narrow view of winning to be "destroyed the Ukrainian armed forces" - the point of war is some wider strategic objective, not just a sum of individual battles and skirmishes, and in this case, the Russian objectives are an expansion of power, restoration of imperial pride, and increase in Putin's domestic legitimacy. All of those objectives have been massively failed as soon as the international response became this unified and forceful, and as soon as Ukraine didn't collapse in a single day. The level of economic and political damage Russian has been hit with will take decades to recover from, and the sanctions aren't going to go away as soon as the war is over, whatever the outcome. The question now isn't if Russia is going to win, it's how badly Ukraine is going to suffer in the time it takes for the Russian government to realise that they have lost.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:00
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Negotiations not over, on break.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:01
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah historically speaking the use of terror weapons on civilians just turns all the civilians into partisans. See: the v2 rocket and the Blitz. i mean see any of the bombings the US/UK has done in WW2 and beyond. outside targeted poo poo, terror/mass bombings on cities don't work.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:01
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The Twitter poster mentioning "deep battle" actually doesn't understand deep battle. It has very little to do with the depth of an advancing column: it refers to hitting multiple enemy echelons within a short period of time using a variety of effects. It's actually a combined arms doctrine at the operational level (versus the concept of combined arms in the West, which tends to focus on tactical applications).
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Feb 28, 2022 16:01
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Randarkman posted:It was posted in this thread sometime yesterday, possibly during the night. I'll look for it later, but possibly someone else here has the link handy. It's in Russian, but google translate will get across the content just fine. I think it's this one, judging by the description: https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html
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Feb 28, 2022 16:01
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Medium Chungus posted:Can you post a link to this? I'm legitimately nerding out on all the Russian military info (BTG's vs. our BCT's, Chechen Saudaukar apparently, etc.) here's the article: https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html and here's a link to a post with a deepl translation: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=0&threadid=3993516&pagenumber=364&perpage=40#post521776235 e: fb
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Feb 28, 2022 16:01
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3D Megadoodoo posted:OK thanks. I think if there was even a hint of hyperinflation, I'd've heard about it from not Twitter already. Higher energy prices was a given the moment this thing started. According to CNN the European Central Bank's said that Sberbank's likely to fail and is already seeing significant withdrawls or "deposit outflows" as they call them in thei/r world without normal english worlds
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Feb 28, 2022 16:03
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https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1498312601117286412?s=20&t=gUs69QGT7U7WUjctzyhqRg
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Feb 28, 2022 16:03
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Dessel posted:Using a picture of a troll from God of War game as their profile picture who is quoting Adam Smith on their personal blog. Jesus gently caress. Maybe he's right but why is he being quoted as some pundit worth listening to? I only brought him in because the thread (the bit before he goes off-piste into economics) basically summarises the pessimistic 'big picture' of what's going on pretty succinctly. There has been a fair bit of starry-eyed posting about Ukraine winning and I think it's important to note that while there's been a lot of suprise by commentators at the choices Russia has made in the first few days, ultimately the big picture still does not look good for Ukraine.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:03
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Ynglaur posted:The Twitter poster mentioning "deep battle" actually doesn't understand deep battle. It has very little to do with the depth of an advancing column: it refers to hitting multiple enemy echelons within a short period of time using a variety of effects. It's actually a combined arms doctrine at the operational level (versus the concept of combined arms in the West, which tends to focus on tactical applications). yeah russia is just doing a more advanced tactic of the 1st chechen war. which is basically speed toward capital and take or in circle it and kill it and country surrenders. didnt work then either.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:04
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ZombieLenin posted:Just look up the publicly available numbers for active APCs in the RA—I believe you can find it on Wikipedia I believe. I don't think this is accurate. They're not tracking soft-skinned vehicles like Tigrs separately so the appropriate comparison is all of RU's infantry fighting vehicles and APCs, which is over 11k active and like 40k reserve. And you're assuming Ukranian claims are accurate. Claims like these never are, that's just the nature of the game. TASS did not corroborate Ukranian MOD numbers, they were hacked to show those numbers briefly, which were taken down.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:05
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the things in that twitter thread that seem to be legit: 1) people are absolutely mixing up "ability to slow down the advance and inflict losses" with "ability to throw the invaders out of the country" and the best-case realistic scenario for ukraine right now looks like a stalemate where they bleed russia until russia goes away for one reason or another; and the more likely situation is that they simply commit war crimes until they control the whole country eventually 2) people are absolutely overfocusing on kyiv not falling and underfocusing on the danger the army that was holding back the separatists is under that said, he has some basic errors: 1) he keeps going "how are they going to get all these weapons to the ukranians??" they're driving them over the boarder ukraine controls into the territory and cities ukraine controls, not hard 2) he does not really seem to grasp the basic ukraine strategy of not giving up. he assumes that once kyiv is besieged zelensky will surrender, when that is...well, not congruent with what ukraine has been doing, which is to try to get to a state of siege and then break the russian advance on it. the city might fall (i unfortunately assume it will) but "huh we look beaten, raise the white flag" isn't really consistent with the ukraine strategy i think it is also very clear the russian plan was to seize kyiv in a quick cheap war and that has failed. the bloggers suggesting that was never the plan are clearly wrong; that said the people who assume plan a failed means the whole invasion will fail are also wrong: the russians can shift to a plan b and have done s at this point. hopefully plan b fails, but we are a long way from that being likely
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Feb 28, 2022 16:06
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bolind posted:This means very little if you're currently being cluster bombed in Kharkiv, but Denmark is seriously considering renaming the street where the Russian embassy resides to "Ukraine Street". As some videos coming out show, the best way is to toss a burning oily rag in to one of the open turret hatches, run like gently caress, and let the ammo propellent make friends with the burning rag.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:07
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Dessel posted:Using a picture of a troll from God of War game as their profile picture who is quoting Adam Smith on their personal blog. Jesus gently caress. Maybe he's right but why is he being quoted as some pundit worth listening to? i mean he isn't outside very basic poo poo like "clancy panic is dumb". also as someone with an Imp from online cartoon as an avatar. this guy is lame.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:07
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Dessel posted:Using a picture of a troll from God of War game as their profile picture who is quoting Adam Smith on their personal blog. Jesus gently caress. Maybe he's right but why is he being quoted as some pundit worth listening to? It's absolutely bizarre, where are people coming up with the 99% of nobody twitter accounts that get reposted here who are spewing either absolute nonsense or just random reposts you could get from actual sources just as easily
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Feb 28, 2022 16:09
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evilweasel posted:the things in that twitter thread that seem to be legit: i agree with this. my hope is the economic poo poo and the losses slowly make russia start to implode while they are trying to fight the war. ukraine can't win this but neither can russia because ukraine will make it cost way way way too much. like to me brain. its not worth what russia has lost least economicaly.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:10
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evilweasel posted:2) he does not really seem to grasp the basic ukraine strategy of not giving up. That's not a strategy, that dude may be underestimating the resolve of the Ukranian people but "not giving up" isn't a strategy, the same way "don't lose the war" on a piece of paper do not constitute a strategy for national defense.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:10
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i mean he isn't outside very basic poo poo like "clancy panic is dumb". also as someone with an Imp from online cartoon as an avatar. this guy is lame. he posted a twitter thread containing his opinions so yeah, we knew that
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Feb 28, 2022 16:10
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https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498304904800182276 Standard disclaimer: Rubio has tweeted a lot of correct predictions, including about decisions Russia will imminently make. Not everything has gone exactly as he said though, and he certainly has his biases.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:10
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Ciprian Maricon posted:That's not a strategy, that dude may be underestimating the resolve of the Ukranian people but "not giving up" isn't a strategy, the same way "don't lose the war" on a piece of paper do not constitute a strategy for national defense. Why not give the Ukrainian military and command control the benefit of the doubt that they aren't winging it? It just comes off as needlessly pedantic when "Not Giving Up" in many ways is a metonym.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:11
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:According to CNN the European Central Bank's said that Sberbank's likely to fail and is already seeing significant withdrawls or "deposit outflows" as they call them in thei/r world without normal english worlds No I meant in the EU, as the whatever I was responding to said.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:11
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ZombieLenin posted:nd the UA is claiming, which was repeated by TASS—briefly—close to 1k APC vehicle kills. What's the point of doing maths on obvious propaganda and hacked in versions of said propaganda?
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Feb 28, 2022 16:12
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coelomate posted:https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498304904800182276 i mean they have been shelling the city so far. Shes Not Impressed posted:Why not give the Ukrainian military and command control the benefit of the doubt that they aren't winging it? It just comes off as needlessly pedantic when "Not Giving Up" in many ways is a metonym. i mean they are winging it. but they also have every intelligence agency in the world feeding them data.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:13
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TheRat posted:What's the point of doing maths on obvious propaganda and hacked in versions of said propaganda? No dude, do the math. Russia has lost 6500 soldiers, and Ukraine 40. Why would you question these numbers, or even completely ignore them?
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Feb 28, 2022 16:14
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Why not give the Ukrainian military and command control the benefit of the doubt that they aren't winging it? It just comes off as needlessly pedantic when "Not Giving Up" in many ways is a metonym. I think we'll learn that NATO had a much bigger part to play in this conflict, among those assisting with C&C based on their own Intel.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:14
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Why not give the Ukrainian military and command control the benefit of the doubt that they aren't winging it? It just comes off as needlessly pedantic when "Not Giving Up" in many ways is a metonym. The thing that always gets me about these doom posts is the assumption that Ukraine isn't fully aware of what is happening and were the Russians are. There is no doubt that they have an American/EU attache in the command centers feeding live info on troop movements and satellite imagery. Ukraine has played this as well as can be expected and is well aware of their position relative to the Russians. They haven't had a tactical defeat in the field yet and know their own weaknesses.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:14
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I will add that 13 of those soldiers are the heroes of snake island, who will be declared heroes of Ukraine.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:15
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coelomate posted:https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498304904800182276 They're already starting to come out on twitter and, "worst man in the world makes a good point"-style, he's unfortunately right. It's ugly.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:15
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nurmie posted:here's the article: https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html quote:Therefore, some over-excited Russian experts should best forget about their cap-and-trade fantasies.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:15
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Trump posted:I think we'll learn that NATO had a much bigger part to play in this conflict, among those assisting with C&C based on their own Intel. Yeah, I think so, too. I wouldn't be shocked if there was NATO SOF in the country as well.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:15
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Why not give the Ukrainian military and command control the benefit of the doubt that they aren't winging it? It just comes off as needlessly pedantic when "Not Giving Up" in many ways is a metonym. Because the exact same could be said of the tweet being critiqued, "Not Giving Up" can certainly be a short-hand for a strategy that Ukraine intends to implement, but similarly "encircle the capital and have them surrender instantly" may not be a holistic and completely accurate description of the Russian Army's objectives and strategic plan.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:16
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I don't think this is accurate. They're not tracking soft-skinned vehicles like Tigrs separately so the appropriate comparison is all of RU's infantry fighting vehicles and APCs, which is over 11k active and like 40k reserve. You may very well be right—you probably are; however, the point I was making was the RA had already lost a significant percentage of its light armored fighting vehicles in 4 days of fighting. Vehicles that, all things considered, are going to be difficult for the RA to replace medium term.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:16
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i agree with this. my hope is the economic poo poo and the losses slowly make russia start to implode while they are trying to fight the war. ukraine can't win this but neither can russia because ukraine will make it cost way way way too much. like to me brain. its not worth what russia has lost least economicaly. Long insurgency (which is guaranteed with massive arms shipments through Polish border) on top of economy in freefall is a nightmare scenario so I dont think map painting would make anyone in Russian command happy.
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