READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

the white hand posted:

I meant sources that have something more than you do

e: but fair enough, the Times is relying on Ukrainian govt sources it seems

Also the Bellingcat executive director spoke with sources inside the Wagner group who confirmed it.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498246108476235776?t=tTZac5NZDii7eCirFQvtlg&s=19

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:25

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# ? Jun 4, 2024 17:31

evilweasel: Aug 24, 2002

mlmp08 posted:

Ok. Here are two lines.

People should not advocate breaking law of armed conflict. It is tempting to ignore the rules when you empathize with one side over the other and when one side (UKR) is clearly the victim in the macro sense. That is a bad road. The rules are ironclad for a reason. You do not get to ignore the rules just because the other side is worse and started the war.

�They were lovely first� is still a bad road to travel. War is awful and these laws are broken in essentially every single conflict, but that does not make their breaches good or worthy of defending.

the rule, as i already pointed out, is very explicitly not ironclad, and even if you ignore it it is a rule that is immeasurably more minor than the ones really at issue here hence the justified response that this is "boy this sure is obvious BUT WHAT ABOUT changing the subject" nonsense

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:25

KillHour: Oct 28, 2007

Nenonen posted:

arsenic constitutes up to 175,907 mg/kg of soil samples.

I'm sorry, loving what?

That's saying 17.6% of the soil is literally arsenic by weight. That's missing a decimal point, right?

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:26

Warbadger: Jun 17, 2006

freeasinbeer posted:

If you are unaware of the Wagner group, whose name is a bit on the nose, you should do a cursory bit of research.

It’s a Russian PMC. It was reported they were potentially trying to kill zelenskyy and the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church

Wagner group isn't really "a PMC". Wagner is:
A) Founded by the neo-nazi dickbag above, a former Russian special forces Brigade Commander.
B) Owned by one of Putin's friends, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
C) The only "PMC" in Russia. It is notably illegal to be a PMC in Russia.
D) Only employs Russian troops.
E) Is headquartered and trained on active Russian military bases.
F) Only takes work from the Russian government, or by entities backed by the Russian government.

Which is the long way of saying Wagner is the half-assed cover for deniable overseas operations for the Russian MoD.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:27

Baronash: Feb 29, 2012; So what do you want to be called?

KillHour posted:

I'm sorry, loving what?

That's saying 17.6% of the soil is literally arsenic by weight. That's missing a decimal point, right?

~~Euro style decimals, I would imagine~~

Read the abstract of the source paper, and apparently not. :stonk:

Baronash fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Mar 1, 2022

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:28

Mr. Fall Down Terror: Jan 24, 2018; by Fluffdaddy

KillHour posted:

I'm sorry, loving what?

That's saying 17.6% of the soil is literally arsenic by weight. That's missing a decimal point, right?

yeah but the amount of arsenic is still so high plants wont grow. not all the soil is that concentrated but the peak arsenic in samples gets to beyond terrifying

that little slice of france is still extremely hosed up from the first world war

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:28

TheRat: Aug 30, 2006

KillHour posted:

I'm sorry, loving what?

That's saying 17.6% of the soil is literally arsenic by weight. That's missing a decimal point, right?

It's probably european which means the comma is the decimal point.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:29

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

evilweasel posted:

the rule, as i already pointed out, is very explicitly not ironclad,

The exception you posted was about prominent figures (ie a General or something) and sharing info for the purpose of confirming life or reuniting with family. There are clear examples of prisoner exchanges and proof of life that do not include filming soldiers giving prepared statements about how their country is hosed up and wrong.

Russia is absolutely the aggressor. They deserve to lose. That does not mean people should defend bad behavior due to their political desires.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:29

boofhead: Feb 18, 2021

e: whoops

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:29

eke out: Feb 24, 2013

Warbadger posted:

Wagner group isn't really "a PMC". Wagner is:
A) Founded by the neo-nazi dickbag above, a former Russian special forces Brigade Commander.
B) Owned by one of Putin's friends, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
C) The only "PMC" in Russia. It is notably illegal to be a PMC in Russia.
D) Only employs Russian troops.
E) Is headquartered and trained on active Russian military bases.
F) Only takes work from the Russian government, or by entities backed by the Russian government.

Which is the long way of saying Wagner is the half-assed cover for deniable overseas operations for the Russian MoD.

Wagner is merely Putin's cold-eyed recognition that the only force that can kill the vile drug-addicted nazis running Ukraine is even viler Nazis of their own.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:29

JesusSinfulHands: Oct 24, 2007; Sartre and Russell are my heroes

Mozi posted:

I think Putin was absolutely certain this would be easy. We joke about his increasing levels of isolation but it really seems as if since covid he's created an environment for himself where he only hears what he wants to hear. Like the talk about how the Ukrainian armed forces should switch sides because their leaders are drug-addicted neo-Nazis. I don't think he would keep repeating that unless he personally believed it was true, as absurd as it seems. He's always wanted to break Ukraine as an independent country and after what happened in Afghanistan with the Taliban, as well as the Western acceptance (or lack of pushback) against his previous military adventures in Eastern Europe he probably thought it would really be as simple as sending in the tanks and having the population come out and cheer them for liberating them from their democratic overlords.

Zelenksy not pulling a Ghani and running away at the first sign of danger was surely a crushing disappointment and I wish I could have seen Putin's face when he heard that news.

As far as the soldiers themselves, it seems that other than Putin, his top generals and kadyrov he told nobody that this would happen, so yeah I'm sure the great majority of the Russian soldiers did not expect to see actual combat. To say they didn't know they were driving into Ukraine after being given the orders to move is a little silly though.

Read a pretty good article about this - nothing shocking, but good to see it reiterated that Putin doesn't use electronics and has surrounded himself by sycophants who only tell him what they want to hear. In addition his personal circle has been getting smaller and smaller over the years and the only people he trusts are his loyalist, hawkish security services who tend to be just as hawkish as him. Meanwhile the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not even being consulted these days.

quote:

Authoritarian states are bedeviled by an inherent contradiction. To stay in power, autocrats desperately seek reliable information on the attitudes of their citizens, elite rivals, and foreign threats. But to avoid opposition, they establish political systems that make quality data exceptionally hard to obtain. Leaders suppress dissent, punish free expression, encourage personal loyalty, and divide their security agencies. They therefore struggle to understand both how their people feel and what other states are planning.

In a personalist autocracy, these problems are even worse. Government officials not only struggle to obtain factual information; they also face strong personal incentives to censor what they find. Consider, for instance, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein�s behavior before the 2003 Iraq war. Iraqi government records captured by the United States show that he badly underestimated the probability of a U.S. invasion and, in the event of one, expected his troops to put up much greater resistance. That is not because his advisers were (entirely) blind to reality. It is because his underlings�fearful of confronting a dictator famous for violent purges�never challenged his rosy assessments. As the political scientist David Lake has argued, �Saddam was insulated in a cocoon in which little adverse information got through to him and few subordinates dared challenge his preconceived beliefs.�

Perhaps no leader of a major power illustrates these patterns better than Putin. His advisers once held a range of perspectives, especially early during the first decade of this century, when he attempted to position the Kremlin as a partner to the United States and Europe. But over time, his security agencies came to dominate Putin�s attention, especially as he grew disappointed with the West. Now, Putin�s inner circle is almost entirely made up of the siloviki�members of his loyalist, hawkish security services. The FSB, Russia�s successor to the KGB, is playing an increasingly visible role in foreign relations. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, by contrast, is now sometimes left out of decisions altogether.

The result is a dangerous feedback loop. By most accounts, the president�s advisers uniformly see the West as a grave security threat to Russia, which encourages Putin to adopt an increasingly hostile stance. This in turn provokes the United States and Europe to confront Russia, which only increases the influence of Putin�s hawks by justifying their pessimistic and often paranoid outlook. Partly as a result, Russian foreign policy has grown more belligerent over time.

This aggression has yielded territorial victories, most famously the annexation of Crimea in 2014. But it has also left Putin significantly more isolated. Russian cooperation with the United States and Europe has, of course, stalled, but its work with India and Japan has similarly stagnated. Moscow has forged a growing partnership with China, but this relationship is likely to make Putin uneasy. Rather than bringing central and eastern Europe back under Moscow�s sway, the president�s gambit in Ukraine has breathed new life into NATO. If Putin�s ultimate goal is to transform the global order to fit Russia�s ambitions, he appears to have failed.

In more rigorously institutionalized states, there would be separate groups or agencies powerful enough to tell leaders when their aggression is backfiring. Yet like many personalized regimes, the Russian government lacks any real checks and balances- or even a way to thoroughly assess the data it gathers. As the Putin expert Brian Taylor has noted, Russia has no system to create �collective judgments� from its multiple intelligence services, as is done with the National Intelligence Estimates in the United States.

Personalism may give Putin extraordinary latitude within Russia. But if he does decide to invade Ukraine, this mode of governance will ultimately hold him back. Research shows that the information problems created by personalism can hamper a country�s performance on the battlefield and distort its leader�s perception of foreign threats. The security threats Putin sees in Ukraine, for instance, are shaped by his inner circle�s pervasive belief that the West lurks behind every Color Revolution. As a result, the president may discount the degree of genuine opposition to Moscow�s actions in former Soviet states. In fact, at the end of January, U.S. spy agencies said that Putin is underestimating the costs of invading Ukraine because his advisers are withholding information about the depth of local Ukrainian opposition to Russia and, relatedly, the strength of Ukraine�s resistance. They alleged that the president �is being misinformed by his own circle of advisers, who appear unwilling to confront him with the full consequences of military action.� Although it is hard to separate fact from speculation in intelligence reports, this problem is a common feature of personalist systems.

For Putin, the consequences of miscalculating in Ukraine could be grim. Although the president�s regime can shelter him from the repercussions of mistakes, if the Kremlin launches a major invasion and the war goes south, it will be hard for him to avoid feeling the impact. Putin will not only be more isolated and dependent on Beijing; he will also face a festering insurgency that will grow unpopular at home. He would not be the first Russian leader damaged by such a quagmire. During the 1980s, the Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan to try to keep Kabul firmly in its camp, and its eventual failure played a key role in undermining public trust in the system.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-02-04/bully-bubble

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:29

Ciprian Maricon: Feb 27, 2006

Warbadger posted:

Wagner group isn't really "a PMC". Wagner is:
A) Founded by the neo-nazi dickbag above, a former Russian special forces Brigade Commander.
B) Owned by one of Putin's friends, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
C) The only "PMC" in Russia. It is notably illegal to be a PMC in Russia.
D) Only employs Russian troops.
E) Is headquartered and trained on active Russian military bases.
F) Only takes work from the Russian government, or by entities backed by the Russian government.

Which is the long way of saying Wagner is the half-assed cover for deniable overseas operations for the Russian MoD.

Those are all true but it is also stocked with Nazis

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:30

Crespolini: Mar 9, 2014

evilweasel posted:

yeah in about two hundred years videos of captured prisoners saying they had no idea they were being sent to war might lead to an aggressive war of conquest with indiscriminate artillery fire against civilians and cities

better focus on that

In your mind, what's the benefit of framing things so you can't be for defeating the Russian invasion and for following the geneva convention both?

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:30

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Looks like they're following through. Russia bombing the TV tower in Kyiv now

https://twitter.com/komadovsky/status/1498678151576268807?t=r5WiqwjtEJYmz90FZkBQ_w&s=19

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1498681447091216387?t=ZFwP9HHg52NgZyeomOmd6Q&s=19

The little ufo sticker :sigh:

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:30

Liquid Chicken: Jan 25, 2005; GOOP

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/gallery/ukraine-girl-killed/index.html :nms:

'Show this to Putin': A 6-year-old girl killed in Ukraine.

"Editor's note: This gallery contains graphic images. Viewer discretion is advised.

A wounded 6-year-old girl arrived at a hospital in Mariupol, Ukraine, on Sunday.

Her mother wept outside the ambulance. Her father was at her side, covered in blood.

The family was at a supermarket on the outskirts of the southeastern port city when Russian shelling started, according to the Associated Press."

As a father of two little girls, this is the hardest thing I've seen. World needs to bare witness to this - needs to be shoved in Putin's face as well as all Russians to see what's going on.

Liquid Chicken fucked around with this message at 16:38 on Mar 1, 2022

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:31

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

the white hand posted:

Isn't it a war crime for Radio Free Europe to run this? It's not the same as when some civilian outlet does it.

The convention on the treatment of prisoners of war applies to the warring party that is holding them as POW's. In this case the Ukrainian government's forces.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:32

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

TheRat posted:

One of these two is explicitly a war crime, and it's not the thermobaric weapons.

Thermobaric weapons are worse.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:33

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Any word on those jets from a non-Ukrainian-legislator source? I'm seeing a lot of chatter confused with confirmations that NATO countries don't intend to set up a no-fly zone in Ukraine or to fly armed jets into Ukraine from NATO bases as part of the transfer

They're big and visible and expensive so I feel like it's a good indicator for the will to maintain material support

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:34

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Note about the area around the Kyiv TV tower that is being bombed

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1498682183912992769?t=pqRB0vpWhK5uXDULTskHoQ&s=19

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:34

evilweasel: Aug 24, 2002

mlmp08 posted:

The exception you posted was about prominent figures (ie a General or something) and sharing info for the purpose of confirming life or reuniting with family. There are clear examples of prisoner exchanges and proof of life that do not include filming soldiers giving prepared statements about how their country is hosed up and wrong.

Russia is absolutely the aggressor. They deserve to lose. That does not mean people should defend bad behavior due to their political desires.

no, the exception was "compelling public interest in revealing the identity of a prisoner" and one example was a general. if you are going to try to tut tut about international jaywalking while cities are being sieged you need to at least be right about what the rule you're arguing about is, and you haven't bothered to actually be right.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:34

javi: Jun 5, 2004; Silly yes ... Idiotic ... yes.!

China isn't really liking the optics of being aligned with Russia.
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1498680870236000261

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:36

Tuxedo Gin: May 21, 2003; Classy.

The convention is INCREDIBLY vague. So much so that there is continuing debate about the subject. It's pointless for us to spend pages arguing about whether or not it is a war crime when the countries who wrote and signed the convention aren't even sure what exactly constitutes a violation.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:36

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

FishBulbia posted:

Russian state media claiming to have encircled Mariupol now

https://twitter.com/rianru/status/1498638111156457480

Looks like that city will be center piece of propaganda push

Encircling Mariupol must bring a big morale boost to Russian troops. Otherwise why do they keep doing it?

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:37

Telsa Cola: Aug 19, 2011; No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

ronya posted:

Any word on those jets from a non-Ukrainian-legislator source? I'm seeing a lot of chatter confused with confirmations that NATO countries don't intend to set up a no-fly zone in Ukraine or to fly armed jets into Ukraine from NATO bases as part of the transfer

They're big and visible and expensive so I feel like it's a good indicator for the will to maintain material support

There's not going to be an no fly zone and outside of that one EU tweet about jets every country has denied they were sending jets.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:37

Dapper_Swindler: Feb 14, 2012; Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

javi posted:

China isn't really liking the optics of being aligned with Russia.
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1498680870236000261

yeah, they want to make money and become an even bigger super power through mostly soft power. now putin is trying to go gilded age and screaming about bullshit and rocking the boat.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:38

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

evilweasel posted:

no, the exception was "compelling public interest in revealing the identity of a prisoner" and one example was a general. if you are going to try to tut tut about international jaywalking while cities are being sieged you need to at least be right about what the rule you're arguing about is, and you haven't bothered to actually be right.

You are being wrong about the rules to defend mistreatment of prisoners just because you like the captor. Is anyone going to the Hague over this? Certainly not. But I�m not going to defend these staged prisoner statement publications. When it�s random squad leader releasing it, it makes more sense. But it is still bad behavior.

I do not agree that mistreating prisoners is fine if you squint hard enough at the rules and support the captor.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:38

the white hand: Nov 12, 2016; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Nenonen posted:

The convention on the treatment of prisoners of war applies to the warring party that is holding them as POW's. In this case the Ukrainian government's forces.

That makes sense, and I know no action will ever come of this. But to me it raises the question, can those warring parties pass off footage to supposedly non-belligerent allies, who are still providing arms? At what point does that rope you in, if you're using your own state media?

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:38

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

KitConstantine posted:

https://twitter.com/komadovsky/status/1498678151576268807?t=r5WiqwjtEJYmz90FZkBQ_w&s=19

Here I am nonchalantly smoking my cig on my balcony, watching my home city being ground to dust. :ukraine:

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:38

DandyLion: Jun 24, 2010; disrespectul Deciever

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Encircling Mariupol must bring a big morale boost to Russian troops. Otherwise why do they keep doing it?

I think its like a big Nascar rally they're just racing round and round Mariupol (only left turns), that sort of thing

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:40

Kaal: May 22, 2002; through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

evilweasel posted:

no, the exception was "compelling public interest in revealing the identity of a prisoner" and one example was a general. if you are going to try to tut tut about international jaywalking while cities are being sieged you need to at least be right about what the rule you're arguing about is, and you haven't bothered to actually be right.

I wouldn't go that far. Upholding the Geneva Conventions in detail isn't just tut tuting about international jaywalking - it's an important standard. I think that there's legal arguments to be made - particularly if identities are concealed - and I would agree that it's not a clear or major violation, but it can be difficult for outsiders to distinguish between a voluntary private discussion and a coerced confession that may beget violent threats.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:40

Aramis: Sep 22, 2009

mlmp08 posted:

People should not advocate breaking law of armed conflict. It is tempting to ignore the rules when you empathize with one side over the other and when one side (UKR) is clearly the victim in the macro sense.

First off, there is a big distinction between temporarily tolerating and advocating. The people you are arguing against are in the first category (for the most part at least, as far as I can tell).

Secondly, there absolutely should be a distinction in the immediate response to war crimes depending on who is performing them, and the nature of the crime. It's pretty obvious if you turn this into a practical question instead of waxing philosophical about it.

What actions should the international community be taking right now to prevent Ukraine from doing these specific war crimes? I'd argue none, as this can, and should, be litigated in the future if the perpetrators are still alive after the conflict ends.

Obviously, this whole stance becomes different if Ukraine starts indiscriminately bombing Russian villages.

Aramis fucked around with this message at 16:43 on Mar 1, 2022

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:40

JesusSinfulHands: Oct 24, 2007; Sartre and Russell are my heroes

javi posted:

China isn't really liking the optics of being aligned with Russia.
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1498680870236000261

Unless it involves Taiwan, Xinjiang, or their investments in Pakistan or Africa, Chinese foreign policy is basically 'we DGAF, just avoid pissing people off so we can continue to get richer and stronger in the long-term', so they'll tell Ukraine what they want to hear and Russia what they want to hear while doing nothing.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:42

DandyLion: Jun 24, 2010; disrespectul Deciever

JesusSinfulHands posted:

Unless it involves Taiwan, Xinjiang, or their investments in Pakistan or Africa, Chinese foreign policy is basically 'we DGAF, just avoid pissing people off so we can continue to get richer and stronger in the long-term', so they'll tell Ukraine what they want to hear and Russia what they want to hear while doing nothing.

Yeah China stands to gain everything from doing nothing. There's just no incentive for them to interfere now.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:43

the popes toes: Oct 10, 2004

That was pretty damned quick.

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1498616494250418182

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:43

Upgrade: Jun 19, 2021

Can someone explain the radio communications things to me? They're just using civilian ham radios? ... Why?

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:43

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

the white hand posted:

That makes sense, and I know no action will ever come of this. But to me it raises the question, can those warring parties pass off footage to supposedly non-belligerent allies, who are still providing arms? At what point does that rope you in, if you're using your own state media?

As far as the text says that the party holding the prisoners has to protect them from public interest, I don't think that changes the responsibility.

That being said, you should also look if there are any precedents. I don't know if any applicable cases have been handled by courts. I faintly recall there was talk about this maybe during Desert Storm when US forces allowed CNN to film Iraqi prisoners?

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:45

KYOON GRIFFEY JR: Apr 12, 2010; Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Not sure I saw this posted yet... big news on the domestic Russian resistance front.

https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/adidas-suspends-partnership-with-russian-football-union-2022-03-01/

as soon as the gopota figure out this is happening, putin is toast. so maybe like, six or seven months.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:45

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Upgrade posted:

Can someone explain the radio communications things to me? They're just using civilian ham radios? ... Why?

Yes, they are using Chinese made handheld radios. Now, this wouldn't be terrible (other than shorter range than an actual military handset and lower power) but even more, they are not using digital comms, so its analog transmissions with no encryption that can be openly intercepted in real time.

So:
1. Poor range
2. No encryption, plain audio
3. Poor Opsec.

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:46

javi: Jun 5, 2004; Silly yes ... Idiotic ... yes.!

Upgrade posted:

Can someone explain the radio communications things to me? They're just using civilian ham radios? ... Why?

Cheaper?

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:46

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# ? Jun 4, 2024 17:31

freeasinbeer: Mar 26, 2015; by Fluffdaddy

javi posted:

Cheaper?

They exist/work?

# ? Mar 1, 2022 16:47

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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