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Mr. Apollo
Nov 8, 2000

Regarding the 800 vehicle convoy, I took it to mean that it was made up of some armored vehicles, supply, logistics, troop carriers etc. The UA probably just targeted the armored vehicles to neutralize the convoys offensive capability. I don’t believe they destroy all 800 vehicles.

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Despera
Jun 6, 2011
good news everyone ukrainian IRS says you dont need to report stolen russian tanks or apcs as taxable income

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Deteriorata posted:

This is also the only way to really get at the oligarchs and punish them. Simply seizing their assets won't do squat, they'll just steal more from the public at large to replace them. The sanctions are going to break up their networks of grifting, though, and put a real hurt on them. Being Putin's friend won't hold much luster any more.

this. also i am sure some "company" men will offer them deals for info or just "solving the problem".

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Deteriorata posted:

This is also the only way to really get at the oligarchs and punish them. Simply seizing their assets won't do squat, they'll just steal more from the public at large to replace them. The sanctions are going to break up their networks of grifting, though, and put a real hurt on them. Being Putin's friend won't hold much luster any more.

Can't steal money from the public if they don't have any because the economy collapsed! :eek:

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Moldova has no loving friends dude. Why WOULD THEY NOT? It's another state that could potentially join NATO if it's not policed up by Putin.

Im sorry but let's not be caught flatfooted in the thread when Russia invaded another state .

Moldova should absolutely be incredibly alarmed and rapidly reassess their security posture and political alignment immediately, correct. They've got an immediate entry into NATO ready for them by federalizing with Romania, though, which is much harder to block.

Brain65
Jan 19, 2012

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Moldova has no loving friends dude. Why WOULD THEY NOT? It's another state that could potentially join NATO if it's not policed up by Putin.

They are neutral, they don't want to join NATO. They also have a russian supported enclave inside their borders which makes their road towards EU and NATO impossible ATM. And they do have a whole bunch of friends just to the west of them.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Mr. Apollo posted:

Regarding the 800 vehicle convoy, I took it to mean that it was made up of some armored vehicles, supply, logistics, troop carriers etc. The UA probably just targeted the armored vehicles to neutralize the convoys offensive capability. I don’t believe they destroy all 800 vehicles.

Or it could just be someone talking out their rear end. Until we see confirmation, this is all speculation.

Capri Sunrise
May 16, 2008

Elephants are mammals of the family Elephantidae and the largest existing land animals. Three species are currently recognised: the African bush elephant, the African forest elephant, and the Asian elephant.

Morrow posted:

Moldova should absolutely be incredibly alarmed and rapidly reassess their security posture and political alignment immediately, correct. They've got an immediate entry into NATO ready for them by federalizing with Romania, though, which is much harder to block.

This can't happen while Transnistria exists and is a Russian controlled territory - especially for an EU/NATO nation.

Scapegoat
Sep 18, 2004
So the shear amount of MANPADS flooding into Ukraine what does this actually mean in terms of air superiority if they all get rolled out? Does Russia operate just operate from high altitudes where they can't reach and lose all the benefits from operating at lower altitudes?

Issaries
Sep 15, 2008

"At the end of the day
We are all human beings
My father once told me that
The world has no borders"

Play posted:

By GDP Russia is the eleventh largest economy, just after Canada and South Korea and ahead of Brazil, Australia, Spain and Mexico, just to give some context.

And that was before the current crash.

Mustard Iceman
Apr 8, 2015

Weak against ketchup

Transnistria has about as many people in it as Omaha, Nebraska, and two-thirds of them aren't even Russian... a strange place to be so interested in.

the white hand
Nov 12, 2016

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Scapegoat posted:

So the shear amount of MANPADS flooding into Ukraine what does this actually mean in terms of air superiority if they all get rolled out? Does Russia operate just operate from high altitudes where they can't reach and lose all the benefits from operating at lower altitudes?

"Hey go fly this around and see if you can get their attention"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LR7VNuXdjk

Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

Scapegoat posted:

So the shear amount of MANPADS flooding into Ukraine what does this actually mean in terms of air superiority if they all get rolled out? Does Russia operate just operate from high altitudes where they can't reach and lose all the benefits from operating at lower altitudes?

MANAPADs don't work for modern jets outside of specific ground attack craft like SU-25 which has to scoop down to target vehicles. They're mostly for helicopters. They can't stop high altitude bombing, cruise missiles, or artillery shelling which Russia is switching to.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
Until someone posts even a single picture of it, there is no 800 vehicle convoy.

also in general, it would be good if people took Ukrainian claims with at least a grain of salt. Yes, they've had some successes, no not every twitter claim should be taken at face value.

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

ZombieLenin posted:

You’re wrong. It proves that European identity is alive and well despite the rise of the “new” right in parts of Europe and Brexit; and it is watching Europe act as a unitary political entity, and that is awesome.

gently caress, even Turkey is included. I thought Turkish chances of getting into the EU almost nil before the last week.

Now it may have a chance again.

Whether Europe likes it or not, in order for many of the nations to maintain the relevance they have today they are going to have unify further. I've already mentioned population being Russia's doom and the same thing can be the the concept of the EU's boom. If France, UK, and Germany want to have anywhere as much bite in as they do now in the several decades ahead and beyond they're going to need to integrate further and expand their pool.

Gripweed posted:

No, this is very bad! Two countries are being destroyed, one militarily and one economically. And the first one economically too. Millions of people are suffering and will continue to suffer. And that's the best possible outcome at this point. There is a significant possibility of more countries getting involved and this situation spiraling out of control. This is terrible and scary.

It's less of saying that the situation is a good thing and more of saying it provides a silver lining.

If one is pro EU, this situation as a whole is bringing Europe far closer together. Russia and Belarus are on one end, with virtually all of Europe on the other, leaving for many European citizens wanting EU membership.

This comes at a time when the alt-right was on a rise and where Brexit, at least as of now which is extremely early on, hasn't been the world ending cataclysm that so many predicted. Thus it isn't hard to imagine that much of the European right will push for anti-EU policies and even succession from existing member states.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


Herstory Begins Now posted:

Until someone posts even a single picture of it, there is no 800 vehicle convoy.

also in general, it would be good if people took Ukrainian claims with at least a grain of salt. Yes, they've had some successes, no not every twitter claim should be taken at face value.

We know to take the Ukrainian claims with a grain of salt because it's coming from the Ukrainian government, not twitter.

What if we assumed everyone is doing that instead of the opposite where we're all just HIGH ON HOPE or something.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Scapegoat posted:

So the shear amount of MANPADS flooding into Ukraine what does this actually mean in terms of air superiority if they all get rolled out? Does Russia operate just operate from high altitudes where they can't reach and lose all the benefits from operating at lower altitudes?

Lol if you think the Russians have good oxygen mixture tanks ready for high altitude sorties

Brain65
Jan 19, 2012

Mustard Iceman posted:

Transnistria has about as many people in it as Omaha, Nebraska, and two-thirds of them aren't even Russian... a strange place to be so interested in.

There's a whole lot of russian military equipment there for the "Russian 14th Army".

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I don't think we're getting into mad max territory but this is going to absolutely destroy entire industries. Russia was completely dependent on outside assistance for aircraft parts, software, etc. and now that Airbus and others are no longer selling them parts they need to somehow find a way to make them domestically. Shipping companies from Fedex to Maersk aren't doing business with the entire Country.

It's absolutely going to wreck certain sectors of the economy yeah.

dominoeffect posted:

Funny how many countries want a weakened Russia

Your suggestion of an "affected" economy is totally at odds with what's generally being reported. Most predictions seem to be that the economy will be crippled with the caveat that these sanctions are so devastating that who knows what else. Are you purposely being conservative, or is there something I'm missing?
Commentators are being a bit hyperbolic, and also quite a bit of financial news is written with their readers in mind - i.e people who have foreign investments. The financial economy will be crippled (which also affects the real economy after a little bit of time), and it would take time to sort out those alternatives for Russia. The stock market will look very bad. If you have some money invested in Russia this is obviously Armageddon. This is a severe shock for the Russian economy and they'll have a recession. Slightly more than a third of their imports will have to be shifted to other economies (which will be more expensive and/or of lesser quality), and there's sectors dependent on imports that can't be replaced in the short-term (such as Airbus and Boeing parts). On the other hand Russia is a huge exporter of the two most fungible commodities in the world, oil&gas, and roughly two-thirds of their imports are unaffected. This is obviously very bad and Russia would be better off without it. It's not nothing, but it's also not Russia being pushed back into the stone-age. They spent the majority of the last century under worse sanctions. My main point is that Russia won't be "destroyed economically" like was mentioned earlier, nor will Russian people die due to the sanctions like someone said yesterday. These are hard sanctions that'll cause heavy economic pain in Russia, which hopefully is enough to force it to the negotiating table.

quote:

BTW you keep mentioning the 6th largest economy. My understanding is that it's largely propped up by the natural resource sector and there's rampant corruption in that industry as well as all other industries. Is it really fair to compare that sort of economy to other modern, western economies?
It sort of depends on what comparisons you're trying to make, but in this scenario it's pretty clearly an advantage for Russia that it's a net exporter of oil and gas. If its main exports were iphone components and it was a part of a complex international manufacturing value-chain, it would be hit harder. In a different sense the size of the domestic market is very important. Countries like China, Russia and the US have huge domestic markets and therefore huge domestic manufacturing industries that don't rely as heavily on imports/exports. Trade sanctions hit these kinds of countries less hard than what are usually called small open economies. If Denmark got hit with equivalent trade sanctions it would be relatively worse off because the domestic market is in relative terms smaller.

Play posted:

By GDP Russia is the eleventh largest economy, just after Canada and South Korea and ahead of Brazil, Australia, Spain and Mexico, just to give some context.
Nominal GDP comparisons are useless to compare the size of international economies, a country could double its nominal GDP by exchange rate manipulation or hyperinflation. You have to adjust for purchasing power.

Dante fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Mar 2, 2022

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Until someone posts even a single picture of it, there is no 800 vehicle convoy.

also in general, it would be good if people took Ukrainian claims with at least a grain of salt. Yes, they've had some successes, no not every twitter claim should be taken at face value.

I read an update in another thread that supposedly it was an 80 vehicle convoy and the initial report was fat-fingered into 800.

Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Lol if you think the Russians have good oxygen mixture tanks ready for high altitude sorties

They failed to use almost all of their modern jets so far and establish air superiority, so might actually be possible. According to analysts several hundred Russian jets are sitting in bases near the border and haven't been used. Or pilots quit when they were given rations that expired before the fall of USSR.

Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 05:32 on Mar 2, 2022

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

I read an update in another thread that supposedly it was an 80 vehicle convoy and the initial report was fat-fingered into 800.

The location of the reported convoy matches a bunch of destroyed and abandoned units posted throughout the day yesterday. 80 sounds more reasonable

These pictures, specifically

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498829449223184387?t=Hh4nwVeF5vEvlcJmWkLuzg&s=19

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME
I wonder if at this point the EU/"West" basically have to crush Russia and Putin any way they can now (in their minds at least)

It's hard to imagine them going "oh dang, well, Ukraine is lost now, gg, sorry about the sanctions"

No matter what happens now it seems like "punish Russia" and dethrone Putin might be the end game and letting that go is a defeat larger than Ukraine

Again, all in their thinking

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498707935735820291

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Lol if you think the Russians have good oxygen mixture tanks ready for high altitude sorties

In any case it would require guided munitions which they may simply not have that much of.

Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

Levitate posted:

No matter what happens now it seems like "punish Russia" and dethrone Putin might be the end game and letting that go is a defeat larger than Ukraine

Again, all in their thinking

If there is a peace deal it will 100% include ending (almost all) sanctions. Russia will demand that. I don't see how Europe can say, "nah, let's just continue the war".

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Owling Howl posted:

In any case it would require guided munitions which they may simply not have that much of.

I don't think accuracy would be needed in this type of bombing campaigns I mean theydbjust drop entire payloads somewhere near the city and fuckoff back to Belarus the last SSR.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Dante posted:

It's absolutely going to wreck certain sectors of the economy yeah.

Fair, I get what you're saying but I think this isn't going to cause a recession and these industries are the nervous system of global economies. It's going to be closer to a full blown depression for possibly years, a decades or even more.

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1498797380686209036?s=20&t=2KvQOkhQVhZTYTDuYUnHPg

Russia is beginning to crack down hard on domestic dissent. According to the article they even straight-up cancelled a state TV show because the host posted a black square on instagram with the words "Fear and pain. No to war" under it.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Shes Not Impressed posted:

We know to take the Ukrainian claims with a grain of salt because it's coming from the Ukrainian government, not twitter.

What if we assumed everyone is doing that instead of the opposite where we're all just HIGH ON HOPE or something.

I think the vast majority of people in here are taking stuff with a grain of salt, a few people are just prolifically reposting any and everything they see on twitter tho

KitConstantine posted:

The location of the reported convoy matches a bunch of destroyed and abandoned units posted throughout the day yesterday. 80 sounds more reasonable

These pictures, specifically

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498829449223184387?t=Hh4nwVeF5vEvlcJmWkLuzg&s=19

it might be, but again, that's 3 vehicles out of an alleged 800, or even 80

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



I can't help but feel a little :tinfoil: over how many Russian assets are being abandoned and subsequently picked up by Ukraine.

Like what happens when all of a sudden millions of Russians pop out of them?! (Okay not exactly it's just hard to believe that Russia is that bad at this)

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

Rad Russian posted:

If there is a peace deal it will 100% include ending (almost all) sanctions. Russia will demand that. I don't see how Europe can say, "nah, let's just continue the war".

Well that's kind of what I'm wondering...what's the peace deal that will be agreed to now that both sides will accept? Obviously I'm speculating but I'm wondering what kind of deal the EU will accept that doesn't put some serious shackles on Putin and Russia to prevent something like this again, and then whether Putin would ever accept that.

Basically, I worry the escalation may be more of both sides demanding capitulation while Ukraine burns

I dunno, it's ugly

e: and I mean yeah while a peace deal woudl be between Ukraine and Russia there is indeed the sanctions aspect that isn't controlled by Ukraine so the deal has to be something the other parties will agree to

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Rad Russian posted:

If there is a peace deal it will 100% include ending (almost all) sanctions. Russia will demand that. I don't see how Europe can say, "nah, let's just continue the war".

Probably depends on whether it's a peace deal or a capitulation.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Another day is dawning over Kyiv - and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:

May God bless the people of Ukraine with the stubborness to defend their homes against these vile attackers. You are fighting for peace, for freedom, and for self-determination - for the opportunity to die as a Ukrainian rather than live as a Russian.

I admire you greatly and will support however I can in the tough days ahead. I love and admire you all.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


cr0y posted:

I can't help but feel a little :tinfoil: over how many Russian assets are being abandoned and subsequently picked up by Ukraine.

I'm super confused about this too, Russia is literally losing some of their most advance anti-war weaponry that could even significantly hurt their air superiority. My only guess is that the crew got lost, surrounded, etc. and bailed but maybe they at least destroyed all of the electronics leaving it just a metal hulk.

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

Levitate posted:

Well that's kind of what I'm wondering...what's the peace deal that will be agreed to now that both sides will accept? Obviously I'm speculating but I'm wondering what kind of deal the EU will accept that doesn't put some serious shackles on Putin and Russia to prevent something like this again, and then whether Putin would ever accept that.

Basically, I worry the escalation may be more of both sides demanding capitulation while Ukraine burns

I dunno, it's ugly

This is what war is about : the Russians will seek to damage the Ukrainians until they accept their peace terms, while the Europeans/Ukrainians will do the same to the Russians. Both sides will hurt each other until the acceptable range of negotiated settlements overlap.

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

Levitate posted:

Well that's kind of what I'm wondering...what's the peace deal that will be agreed to now that both sides will accept? Obviously I'm speculating but I'm wondering what kind of deal the EU will accept that doesn't put some serious shackles on Putin and Russia to prevent something like this again, and then whether Putin would ever accept that.

Basically, I worry the escalation may be more of both sides demanding capitulation while Ukraine burns

I dunno, it's ugly
Yeah, I think the concerning thing for the course of things going forwards is that there's no clear off-ramps to the current path of continued escalation. I've yet to see anyone propose terms which Putin and Ukraine both will realistically accept, so where would diplomacy even begin yet.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I'm super confused about this too, Russia is literally losing some of their most advance anti-war weaponry that could even significantly hurt their air superiority. My only guess is that the crew got lost, surrounded, etc. and bailed but maybe they at least destroyed all of the electronics leaving it just a metal hulk.

Desertion.

Or they get arrested on the hunt for food, they could get boozed up and pass out in a farm I mean there's many reasons.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Dante posted:

Yeah, I think the concerning thing for the course of things going forwards is that there's no clear off-ramps to the current path of continued escalation. I've yet to see anyone propose terms which Putin and Ukraine both will realistically accept, so where would diplomacy even begin yet.

Escalation is an off ramp I read somewhere, as it creates the perception he left the field as an equal. I have no idea what that means.

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jmnmu
Nov 21, 2004
f

Deteriorata posted:

Another day is dawning over Kyiv - and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:



I will never get tired of seeing this posted! My heart goes out to everyone facing hard times because of the lunatic Vladimir Putin.

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