Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017




More like Vladimirobitch right?!

...I'll see myself out

Also you don't want people calling bluffs on whether Russia's nukes still work. Extremely bad things if you guess wrong.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Seth Pecksniff
May 27, 2004

can't believe shrek is fucking dead. rip to a real one.

Ynglaur posted:

Operations speculation chat:
Ukraine is an interesting position from an operational perspective. On the one hand, to some degree they only have to not lose. Keep a conventional army in existence, and hold out. On the other hand, to do that they probably have to take some tactical and operational risks, including counter-attacks.

For reasons discussed elsewhere ITT, trying to mobilize new mechanized units is impractical for the foreseeable future. What Ukraine does have is a lot of people willing to fight. They could stand up new light/motorized formations. Historically, infantry gets annihilated by artillery (which is why everyone likes putting them into armored vehicles when they're on the move), but as one of the Twitter posts from some US general mentioned earlier, this isn't maneuver warfare: it's positional warfare. Things will get a lot dicier in the summer when the ground dries out, but for now Russian forces have to punch straight ahead, as it were. It's probably one of the reasons they kept sending in VDV units, even while everyone ITT was lamenting the foolishness of doing so again and again under Ukraining anti-air coverage.

Russia may eventually just call up more and more reservists to keep numerical superiority, but if the West can keep Ukraine's forces supplied with modern kit, that could drag out the conventional war for a long time. But getting a lot of infantry formations stood up quickly--and getting them trained/re-trained--is important.

When thinking about numbers in the context of an infantry fight, consider this: in the Battle of Mosul, ISIL had ~10,000 troops. Iraq and the Perhmerga used something like ~110,000 troops. ISIS was well-equipped, well-trained, and motivated. Iraq had several very competent units participate in that fight, and the Peshmerga are very good. It was still an awful, terrible fight from the attackers' perspective. I'll bet Kharkiv and Odessa have more than 10,000 defenders, nevermind Kiev. I don't think the Russians can successfully storm these cities short of leveling them first, and maybe not even then.

This is really interesting. Thanks for posting it :)

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



TheRat posted:

This plant uses a negative feedback loop which means if it goes to poo poo it dies out rather than ramps up. It can't have a chernobyl accident.

That doesn’t mean non Chernobyl plants can’t meltdown and cause a catastrophe, it just means it won’t happen the same mechanism as Chernobyl. If coolant is lost the core can still melt and rupture its containment. Particularly by building up hydrogen. See fukashima, 3 mile island, etc

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Djarum posted:

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1499450525724598274

First signs of US pre positioning hardware, which I don't have to really say is not a good sign.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_192695.htm

NATO has been positioning response units in NATO countries due to Putin likely not stopping with Ukraine.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

TheRat posted:

This plant uses a negative feedback loop which means if it goes to poo poo it dies out rather than ramps up. It can't have a chernobyl accident.

It has spent fuel storage on site. That seems like it would be bad to explode something in, but I'm not a nuclear surgeon

https://www.power-technology.com/projects/zaporizhzhya-nuclear-power-plant/

the article posted:

Zaporizhzhya spent-fuel dry storage facility

Following the breakup of the USSR, spent-fuel could no longer be transported to Russia, and the shortage of free space in the cooling pools demanded a spent-fuel dry storage facility (SFDSF) at the site. The State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine issued a license for the development of the first SFDSF at Zaporizhzhya NPP in July 2001. Zaporizhzhya is the first Ukrainian NPP with VVER type reactors to include an SFDSF with a 50-year service life.

The spent nuclear fuel from the reactors is stored in cooling pools for four to five years until the residual energy and radioactivity decrease. It is then transferred to the SFDSF.

The storage system can accommodate more than 9,000 spent-fuel assemblies in 380 ventilated storage casks of 144t each. The facility began operations in August 2004 and 167 casks have already been installed on the site.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


KitConstantine posted:

Oh, look! Looks like the Russians used the "humanitarian corridor" option in 2014 too.

And slaughtered people.
https://twitter.com/AndreaChalupa/status/1499449735480066053?t=9s7nBHG7XRpzoL5yVru0Cg&s=19

In a weird way that makes me feel marginally better since I'm assuming Ukraine will remember that moment and push for stronger safety guarantees like outside observers from China or India.

Videos of American military equipment on trains in Romania pop up from time to time and the chucklefuck nationalists will somehow use it to claim Western Imperialism is coming to get them and cite Operation Tidalwave as evidence of whatever.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Djarum posted:

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1499450525724598274

First signs of US pre positioning hardware, which I don't have to really say is not a good sign.

My impression is that the U.S. has been moving forces around throughout--I think it's supposed to both show Russia that the U.S. is committed to NATO defense, and show the NATO countries the same thing. But it could be something more meaningful, idk

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Sir John Falstaff posted:

My impression is that the U.S. has been moving forces around throughout--I think it's supposed to both show Russia that the U.S. is committed to NATO defense, and show the NATO countries the same thing. But it could be something more meaningful, idk
It’s the former

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

KitConstantine posted:

It has spent fuel storage on site. That seems like it would be bad to explode something in, but I'm not a nuclear surgeon

https://www.power-technology.com/projects/zaporizhzhya-nuclear-power-plant/

Spent fuel is a risk but at worst it can overheat. Its not likely to even become a chernobyl or be a thread outside the immediate area if the spent fuel pool is breached.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Grouchio posted:

Well why not?

Escalation to a general war would probably mean no more voting ever and you'll have to eat your pet if you have one

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Dr. Despair posted:

The uranium and plutonium decaying isn't really the problem, but a lot of more advance designs use things like tritium and whatnot to help boost yields, and those can have half lives measured in the 10 year range.

Not to mention explosives and wiring and whatnot degrading from age. They won't sit forever without some maintenance (although if there's one thing they aren't skimping money on maintaining it's probably this).

This is my concern as well. Most analysts and experts thought the state of Russian military and hardware was in pretty good shape before all this. I have a feeling there is serious concern in a lot of circles now about the state of their nuclear weapons. Inspectors going through and making sure there aren't active leaks and whatnot is one thing but they likely won't have access to the nuts and bolts to judge if they are viable and safe for actual use nor if there was even a chance of that the Russian government allowing them to see/know that.

I do wonder if that test launch a few weeks ago was them trying to project that everything is fine there when they very well might not be.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

CommieGIR posted:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_192695.htm

NATO has been positioning response units in NATO countries due to Putin likely not stopping with Ukraine.
So it's basically an extension of the 'NATO Task Force' set up to deter Russia from trying anything funny past Ukraine, right?

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Grouchio posted:

So it's basically an extension of the 'NATO Task Force' set up to deter Russia from trying anything funny past Ukraine, right?

Yes. also show of force for NATO members to show they are ready to move as needed.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Randarkman posted:

Just going to jump in ahead of this to say talking about and especially discussing whether the US could or could not conquer Russia is extremely stupid.

Nobody is talking about “conquering” Russia; and I think it’s fair to point out, because now it must be obvious to Putin as well, that the United States military specifically, and the major power NATO members militaries, are orders of magnitude more capable than the Russian Armed Forces.

Believe it or not, prior to Putin’s Ukraine war, NATO considered the Russian military a near peer in ability. It clearly is not, and this is very embarrassing for Russia.

I also hope China is watching what the Ukrainians are doing against what was rated by most military analysts as the second most powerful military in the world armed and advised by NATO, and reassess how seriously it might have once considered the possibility of a “successful” invasion of Taiwan.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

FlamingLiberal posted:

It’s the former

Without something more, that would be my assumption, yeah

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

I wonder if this "scoop" is gonna get some generals shot

https://twitter.com/carolelee/status/1499451600229875719?t=abjGHLwJeNiYk2i7iqVOBQ&s=19

Nfcknblvbl
Jul 15, 2002

Anyone else find it strange that American military hardware positioned in eastern Europe has desert camo?

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin
https://twitter.com/carolelee/status/1499451600229875719

Well good news this finally happening.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021


Why? This is good for Russia.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006


And also very bad news they published it

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

TheRat posted:

And also very bad news they published it

Feel like you guys don't understand this. This means that Russia can notify NATO about using things like strategic bombers and clarify that they aren't directed them at NATO forces. Similar thing happened in Syria.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Djarum posted:

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1499450525724598274

First signs of US pre positioning hardware, which I don't have to really say is not a good sign.

What is the big deal about this? On day 2 it was public knowledge that NATO activated its rapid reaction force and deployed those troops to potentially Russian threatened NATO states.

Biden even referenced this is the State of the Union address.

This is exactly what NATO was designed to do: deter attacks on NATO members and be in a position to defend those members if they are threatened.

It’s not some sort of crazy sudden NATO escalation.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Nfcknblvbl posted:

Anyone else find it strange that American military hardware positioned in eastern Europe has desert camo?

Not really. They likely came out of the Middle East since that would be one of the closest locations to pull them and they don't have enough time to change the camp pattern before deployment. If there is a need they can paint them where they will be stationed but even in the States a ton of hardware is still painted desert camo. It just isn't a priority until it needs to be.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

Nfcknblvbl posted:

Anyone else find it strange that American military hardware positioned in eastern Europe has desert camo?

No. Large amounts of US hardware is painted desert because that's where we were for the better part of 30 years. Honestly, fast-painting vehicles is something the US military should have solved for decades ago, but "paint vehicles faster" is not as sexy or grift-ridden as something like the F-35.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

FishBulbia posted:

Feel like you guys don't understand this. This means that Russia can notify NATO about using things like strategic bombers and clarify that they aren't directed them at NATO forces. Similar thing happened in Syria.

Yeah, this probably isn't something they're doing behind Putin's back.

uXs
May 3, 2005

Mark it zero!

FishBulbia posted:

Feel like you guys don't understand this. This means that Russia can notify NATO about using things like strategic bombers and clarify that they aren't directed them at NATO forces. Similar thing happened in Syria.

Yes, this is basically communicating to avoid accidentally running into each other and yeah, letting each other know we're not attacking each other.

DekeThornton
Sep 2, 2011

Be friends!
By deconflict movments around Ukraine I assume they mean NATO troops moving around outside Ukraine and that they are talking about ensuring that there is no misunderstandings about those movements being agressive.

Edit: Beaten by a mile.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

As far as I remember, this kind of back channel stuff is pretty common.

And, you know, a good idea when you want to keep things from escalating while everyone is twitchy.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

FishBulbia posted:

Feel like you guys don't understand this. This means that Russia can notify NATO about using things like strategic bombers and clarify that they aren't directed them at NATO forces. Similar thing happened in Syria.

It's extremely obvious that the US/NATO has been helping Ukraine with intel, so why would Russia do this? There are no NATO forces in Ukraine.

mustard_tiger
Nov 8, 2010

jaete posted:


So my argument is that, on the one hand, NATO membership would be useful to Finland. On the other hand, what would be the downsides of NATO membership?

Many people argue that in fact the USA regularly does bad things such as the invasion of Iraq, and as a member we'd be pulled into that. Well, to some extent that is true - but Iraq was not mandated by NATO, in fact, since Iraq never attacked the US, thus none of the NATO articles were applicable. It was more a "coalition of the willing" wasn't it.

One can certainly argue that the Finnish government would rush to kiss USA's butt even in sordid bullshit operations like that, and yeah, they probably would. Nevertheless, I think NATO membership would still be a good trade on balance. Looking at what a maniac Putin is, as he's demonstrating right now, and thinking that we might be spared a full-scale invasion in which thousands die... and sure perhaps we would instead decide to send like 30 young people to some Operation hosed Up Bullshit in 2026, some of whom would die... I mean, think about it :shrug:


I'd like to point out that Canada is one of the US closest allies and we didn't go into Iraq with them. Being a part of NATO doesn't necessarily mean you are automatically included in any of their wars.

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



I try to only spend so much of my day keeping up on this stuff because it's extremely distressing but is weaponry/supplies still flooding into Ukraine from pretty much the entire world?

Is there a realistic action that Russia could take to interfere with this supply line?

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

TheRat posted:

It's extremely obvious that the US/NATO has been helping Ukraine with intel, so why would Russia do this? There are no NATO forces in Ukraine.

Also look how Syria worked out for the Syrians. Maybe generals won't get shot, but it doesn't help the people in Ukraine.

In other news it's probably a good thing a bunch of Russian journalists got the gently caress out of dodge yesterday

https://twitter.com/EilishHart/status/1499451972004552704?t=g2EUe00-cjEz7S4ZyxLtNQ&s=19

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

ZombieLenin posted:

What is the big deal about this? On day 2 it was public knowledge that NATO activated its rapid reaction force and deployed those troops to potentially Russian threatened NATO states.

Biden even referenced this is the State of the Union address.

This is exactly what NATO was designed to do: deter attacks on NATO members and be in a position to defend those members if they are threatened.

It’s not some sort of crazy sudden NATO escalation.

Normally with NATO rapid reaction forces they are stationed at bases in the areas. If this report is true and they are staging at the border it means that NATO is taking a threat at that area more seriously. If I had to make a guess the map that Lukashenko showed off with the attack going into Moldavia likely is true and they are fortifying that border more than it was previously.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

cr0y posted:

I try to only spend so much of my day keeping up on this stuff because it's extremely distressing but is weaponry/supplies still flooding into Ukraine from pretty much the entire world?

Is there a realistic action that Russia could take to interfere with this supply line?

they have to conquer western ukraine to block it from getting into ukraine (and even then it's probably hard to avoid it being smuggled in)

they can cut off and surround cities to stop it from getting into the cities under siege, of course

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

TheRat posted:

It's extremely obvious that the US/NATO has been helping Ukraine with intel, so why would Russia do this? There are no NATO forces in Ukraine.

Same reason they did in Syria. US is helping Ukraine, but its not a NATO ally. Russia doesn't want to escalate to nuclear war, and removing ambiguity helps more with its tactical operations than it hurts.

Sandweed
Sep 7, 2006

All your friends are me.

They could threathen to declare war on the countries supplying arms.

EngineerJoe
Aug 8, 2004
-=whore=-



TheRat posted:

It's extremely obvious that the US/NATO has been helping Ukraine with intel, so why would Russia do this? There are no NATO forces in Ukraine.

If they launch an ICBM missile they can re-assure US that it is going to Ukraine and will reduce the risk of US retaliating.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Sandweed posted:

They could threathen to declare war on the countries supplying arms.

Yeah this one is going wonderfully so far, why not add another one?

They can bluster but nobody is taking their threats with any wieght at the moment.

TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Mar 3, 2022

Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



cr0y posted:

I try to only spend so much of my day keeping up on this stuff because it's extremely distressing but is weaponry/supplies still flooding into Ukraine from pretty much the entire world?

Is there a realistic action that Russia could take to interfere with this supply line?

They are bifurcating the country and surround the largest centers of resistance and urban centers. I believe population density in Western Ukraine is relatively low compared to the areas where Russian movements have focused. So in a sense, they can cut off the flow of arms this way.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

JerikTelorian
Jan 19, 2007




Excited for modders to add the fleshlite inventory slot to their ARMA3 packs.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5