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Boris Galerkin posted:For the last tweet, someone posted “proof” (as in twitter photos) of this last evening. That was me lol. There's also video of trucks coming in from Crimea as well as hotel blocks that were booked for the folks brought in. Apparently they arrived in Kherson last night. Edit: Ukraine reports they're gonna try and fake a referendum that supports Russian rule https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1499762511117172741?t=m-nnjOcGBtkf4zI4KyoQDw&s=19
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Mar 4, 2022 16:08
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah, i highly doubt it. at least right now. It would make sense tbh. If he stays in Kyiv, realistically it's just a matter of time. And if he falls that's an absolutely monumental blow to morale considering the icon he has become. Not to mention losing leadership at the top could cause a lot of chaos.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:09
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Tai posted:I'm assuming that the 2 B-52's doing doughnuts over Romania is just sabre rattling.. pretty sure the only sabre rattling is gonna be when a ukrainian farmer is on tiktok towing a soviet-captured/reverse-engineered F86 that somehow got sent into battle from russia
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Mar 4, 2022 16:10
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TheRat posted:It would make sense tbh. If he stays in Kyiv, realistically it's just a matter of time. And if he falls that's an absolutely monumental blow to morale considering the icon he has become. Not to mention losing leadership at the top could cause a lot of chaos. Not right now though, and certainly not to Poland.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:11
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Dwesa posted:What exactly are Italian media reporting according to that trumpist felon? That article is about something completely different, only at the end it says in one or two sentences 'Volodin says Zelensky fled, UA side did not confirm it.' Ukrainian PM survived at least three killing attempts. According to Russia he could be in Poland. Keep in mind that ansa is a news aggregator that nowadays is just barely better than clickhole in being accurate rather than parroting twitter/facebook noise. SlowBloke fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Mar 4, 2022 |
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Mar 4, 2022 16:11
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Ola posted:Yeah it can't be a simple has a disabled vehicle physically blocking perfectly good ones. Speculation: Some are disabled, some out of fuel, most are ok. But many smaller groups which are meant to be together are broken up, meaning supporting vehicles are split from the supported ones. So they don't want to move from their local air superiority in a disorganized way, because they spent the last few days learning what happens if you do that. I like when you see a gap, there's there's another vehicle, presumably with a smart guy in it noping out of joining the mass.....and then everyone behind him just creates another mass.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:12
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I honestly doubt Russias ability to take Kyiv at this point. They've left it too long to take it by storm, and their encirclement for a siege isn't working and also would have to hold against relief forces from Lviv. While the East of the country might eventually fall, I'm not sure how Kyiv can at this point absent a long grinding urban assault process.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:12
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drat this thread moves so fast, yet I haven’t seen anything about this? Russia shelled a nuclear power plant an hour or two ago and hit one of six reactors, luckily it was offline. Started a fire but they put it out before it spread. UN is supposed to meet about it. Was surprised to not see it posted in here in the last 3 hours of discussion? Maybe I’m retarded https://apnews.com/article/ddbace81e2e09028e0da1ec37619d148 Edit: I guess I’m  this happened 12 hours ago not 3-4
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Mar 4, 2022 16:13
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mitztronic posted:drat this thread moves so fast, yet I haven’t seen anything about this? Russia shelled a nuclear power plant an hour or two ago and hit one of six reactors, luckily it was offline. Started a fire but they put it out before it spread. UN is supposed to meet about it. It was last night.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:14
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https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1499760877729632256 The Russian wire agencies can't get their story straight I suppose
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Mar 4, 2022 16:14
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mitztronic posted:drat this thread moves so fast, yet I haven’t seen anything about this? Russia shelled a nuclear power plant an hour or two ago and hit one of six reactors, luckily it was offline. Started a fire but they put it out before it spread. UN is supposed to meet about it. Well this happened about 12 hours ago or so and it’s been discussed
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Mar 4, 2022 16:14
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mitztronic posted:drat this thread moves so fast, yet I haven’t seen anything about this? Russia shelled a nuclear power plant an hour or two ago and hit one of six reactors, luckily it was offline. Started a fire but they put it out before it spread. UN is supposed to meet about it. That was last night, more than 12 hours ago.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:14
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NTRabbit posted:That's from yesterday, they don't have any shots of today because of cloud cover and civilian satellites tend not to have ground penetrating radar (Source: my father worked on this stuff for decades. Primary clients were the USAF and NASA.)
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Mar 4, 2022 16:14
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mitztronic posted:drat this thread moves so fast, yet I haven’t seen anything about this? Russia shelled a nuclear power plant an hour or two ago and hit one of six reactors, luckily it was offline. Started a fire but they put it out before it spread. UN is supposed to meet about it. Yeah, nothing has happened. The reactors are stable, the fire was in a training building, the fire was not being purposefully directed at the reactors as far as anyone can tell. The IAEA is in touch with the Plant Manager, its all safe for now.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:14
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mitztronic posted:drat this thread moves so fast, yet I haven’t seen anything about this? Russia shelled a nuclear power plant an hour or two ago and hit one of six reactors, luckily it was offline. Started a fire but they put it out before it spread. UN is supposed to meet about it. This all happened more like 12h ago. Firefighting teams got to it, was ok.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:15
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TheRat posted:It would make sense tbh. If he stays in Kyiv, realistically it's just a matter of time. And if he falls that's an absolutely monumental blow to morale considering the icon he has become. Not to mention losing leadership at the top could cause a lot of chaos. I don't think it's gonna happen any time soon. And I think he'd be more likely to be a martyr than anything else. Regarding Poland - I posted this yesterday but I think it got missed. The Polish Ambassador is still in Kyiv working directly with the Ukrainian government. So the Ukrainians have a direct line to NATO/Poland still in country. Here's the article - https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/poland-ambassador-kyiv-invasion Pro-read btw. The guy is a total badass with a very dry sense of humor. He's still sleeping in the Polish embassy because it was built to survive a nuke during the Cold War. Asked if he would leave any time soon quote:“Why?” Cichocki asked. “People sleep in beds.”
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Mar 4, 2022 16:15
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Nothingtoseehere posted:I honestly doubt Russias ability to take Kyiv at this point. They've left it too long to take it by storm, and their encirclement for a siege isn't working and also would have to hold against relief forces from Lviv. While the East of the country might eventually fall, I'm not sure how Kyiv can at this point absent a long grinding urban assault process.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:15
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mitztronic posted:drat this thread moves so fast, yet I haven’t seen anything about this? Russia shelled a nuclear power plant an hour or two ago and hit one of six reactors, luckily it was offline. Started a fire but they put it out before it spread. UN is supposed to meet about it. It was last night and they RPGd an office building when they took control over the plant. The IAEA says there's no detected radiaton leak
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Mar 4, 2022 16:15
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Maera Sior posted:Not sure why you're bringing up GPR. All you need is the right kind of satellite data and the software to strip out the atmospheric noise, and it's not all classified, just expensive. You can't magic up visual spectrum images from satellites and see through clouds by stripping out noise with algorithms. You can compensate for it in some wavelengths like some IR ones, but clouds block light.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:19
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Have NATO & the US stopped escalating sanctions, or is that news just being buried due to the invasion?
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Mar 4, 2022 16:19
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Nothingtoseehere posted:I honestly doubt Russias ability to take Kyiv at this point. They've left it too long to take it by storm, and their encirclement for a siege isn't working and also would have to hold against relief forces from Lviv. While the East of the country might eventually fall, I'm not sure how Kyiv can at this point absent a long grinding urban assault process. If Russia really brings the full strength of their forces to bear, they can almost certainly "take" Kyiv, but "taking" it likely means massive destruction to buildings and infrastructure and high casualties. I'm not sure they're necessarily interested in that with how much the world is watching.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:19
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This thread moves pretty fast, but there's something universal that I've been thinking about, and want to talk about. There's still a dozen different ways that this might turn out to be a short war, if Putin's military, the home front, or his inner circle turn out to be more brittle than he expects. But a bunch of military experts and analysts are more sober about the prospects, and present either a conflict that will last years or even decades, or a peace settlement that will result in at least a split country, as it seems highly unlikely that Russia will give up territory without having its military forcibly removed. So if stable front lines develop (still a big if!), that still won't be enough for Ukraine to successfully defend its territorial integrity. There's a psychological effect, that some management author has a bit hyperbolically termed "the Stockdale Paradox." What it boils down to is, if you're stuck in a miserable situation for an indeterminate duration, the optimists give up hope first. James Stockdale was a U.S. naval aviator and a high ranking POW in Vietnam. He was an organizer of prison resistance, and held a strong Stoic personal philosophy. When asked about what distinguished the prisoners who didn't make it until the end of the war, he said this: quote:Oh, that's easy, the optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, 'We're going to be out by Christmas.' And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they'd say, 'We're going to be out by Easter.' And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart. This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be. A lot of posters in this thread have friends or family in Ukraine, Russia or Belarus. So if there's anything practical I can contribute by posting, that they might be able to share, it's this advice. Don't be an optimist. Temper your hopes for a quick success with the endurance and discipline necessary for the long haul. It took 45 years for the divided Germany to unite again, and Korea is still separated.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:19
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For what it's worth there were rumors yesterday that Russian news outlets would be putting out fake stories about Zelensky leaving Kyiv.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:20
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NTRabbit posted:At this point everything demonstrated about the numbers and capabilities of their so called advanced weapons, and their lack of training, coordination, communication, and logistics, unavoidably lead to the conclusion that a conventional war between Russia and the USA would be roughly akin to the fight between the human militaries and the aliens in PYF invasion movie. Oh, that’s very clear; and it is somewhat dangerous because now Putin will no longer be able to position for strategic realignment with the West based on the strength and assumed capability of the Russian armed forces. Like I keep saying, his invasion has put on display that not only would Russia lose a conventional war with NATO—everyone already knew this—but also that the Russian military does not have the capability to make such a war costly to NATO. This assumption that the costs of a conventional war with Russia would be high for NATO was very useful leverage. Leverage Putin no longer has.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:21
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Randarkman posted:For what it's worth there were rumors yesterday that Russian news outlets would be putting out fake stories about Zelensky leaving Kyiv. Ah good, so the denazification was a success! no need to be in unkraine anymore, mission accomplished!
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Mar 4, 2022 16:22
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Nothingtoseehere posted:You can't magic up visual spectrum images from satellites and see through clouds by stripping out noise with algorithms. You can compensate for it in some wavelengths like some IR ones, but clouds block light. Correct, they weren't just using the visual spectrum. Hence the need for special satellites, but those are far cheaper than they used to be. It's not just military usage. ETA: I was originally responding to a post suggesting ground penetrating radar was what was needed. Maera Sior fucked around with this message at 16:29 on Mar 4, 2022 |
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Mar 4, 2022 16:23
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I know that no-fly zones are cool today, since the mention was dropped by 1 Spanish dude, but I’d nonetheless like to ask people to calm down with nuclear first trikes and other WW3 chatter at the very least until there’s a broader NATO announcement that it’s something in the works (which won’t happen). It’s not terribly interesting to read someone make 50th post saying “well if NATO implements no-fly zone, they’ll need to strike AA encampments in Russia”.KitConstantine posted:Apparently Russia is officially trying to push the line that Zelensky has fled. I don't think it will work. Italy is probably more dependent on Russia than Germany is.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:23
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Randarkman posted:For what it's worth there were rumors yesterday that Russian news outlets would be putting out fake stories about Zelensky leaving Kyiv. They're trying, but can't get their own stories straight internally. https://twitter.com/joeabodnar/status/1499766235445219334?t=f7TNnLTD83rF5mQ6xcMnwQ&s=19 How do you gently caress up messaging this bad when the government is in control of pretty much all the media still operating in Russia right now???
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Mar 4, 2022 16:25
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Is the goal to make Zelensky prove he's still in Kyiv so Russia can merc him as soon as he pops his head out of the bunker?
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Mar 4, 2022 16:26
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Kraftwerk posted:I’m starting to wonder if that doom convoy is just a feint by the Russians to force the Ukrainians to concentrate their best troops North of Kyiv while the rest of the country falls in the south to occupation. I originally thought he would just negate Kyiv, grab the two states on the east and link them all to Crimea and call it a day. I didn't factor in so much hatred for the Ukranian people from one man. 
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Mar 4, 2022 16:27
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pippy posted:Is the goal to make Zelensky prove he's still in Kiev so Russia can merc him as soon as he pops his head out of the bunker? i think Putin realized how badly they were being crushed in the meme war so now they're just flailing, trying to find any narrative to latch on to.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:27
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fatherboxx posted:Yes, he doesnt touch some people out of strange honor type deals made in the 90's - Yeltsin family, Sobchacks, Anatoly Chubais In other words it's a "Nothing must happen to Fredo while my mother is alive" sort of deal.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:28
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KitConstantine posted:They're trying, but can't get their own stories straight internally. sowing confusion can be just as effective
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Mar 4, 2022 16:28
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Apparently the Ukrainian military cleared the Russians far enough away from Kharkiv that rescue missions and mine clear out are an option   https://twitter.com/EilishHart/status/1499768064681947136?t=YFULH3L1MxacG3x5Andsvg&s=19
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Mar 4, 2022 16:29
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ZombieLenin posted:Oh, that’s very clear; and it is somewhat dangerous because now Putin will no longer be able to position for strategic realignment with the West based on the strength and assumed capability of the Russian armed forces. probably. i suspect all putin has now is nukes and maybe some weird 5th column types who would gently caress poo poo up if he made enough noise suggesting it. like i could see putin trying to reconize trump as the REAL president and hoping trump or the chuds act on it. would it work, gently caress no, but it would be something.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:30
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Rinkles posted:sowing confusion can be just as effective Confusion for who? No one in Ukraine is getting their news from Russian state media sources and no one outside Ukraine matters as a target for this news
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Mar 4, 2022 16:30
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This is like Iran releasing an assassination video of Rep. Bruce Westerman.
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Mar 4, 2022 16:31
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https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1499768740673732613
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Mar 4, 2022 16:31
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KitConstantine posted:They're trying, but can't get their own stories straight internally. Russian propaganda, both internal and outward-facing, is heavily siloed and not coordinated. Like a lot of other government systems, it's a lot of little autocrats doing and saying things they think Putin would like. One side effect domestically is that citizens know that the media is full of lies, and give up on trying to identify the truth. This is fantastic for killing off civil society, discourse and possible dissent. People who have given up in this way also start self-selecting for sources they want to hear, or making anchoring errors about what embedded or implicit claims are true. This makes their beliefs easier to manipulate, even if your specific claims are an uncoordinated mess. Think of it this way- they don't care why you believe that democratic participation is futile, but they definitely want you to believe it. Any path you take to get there works. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 16:39 on Mar 4, 2022 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This is like Iran releasing an assassination video of Rep. Bruce Westerman. Also reportedly this was literally one of their opening actions for this whole war. No news worth crowing about since then? Interesting Edit: removed the exact date because I think it was wrong. KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 16:35 on Mar 4, 2022 |
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Mar 4, 2022 16:32
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