Charlz Guybon posted:Woah...this guy doesn't link to the video, but some of the replies do. It is by far the most graphic I've seen so far. So only check it out if you have a strong stomach.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:40
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Kaal posted:Ukrainian Llama Recipe: Stolen Russian vodka will work, in a pinch
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Mar 5, 2022 01:41
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Charlz Guybon posted:Woah...this guy doesn't link to the video, but some of the replies do. It is by far the most graphic I've seen so far. So only check it out if you have a strong stomach. If this continues for the rest of the month I simply cannot fathom a full scale war lasting that much longer. Russia might be a dictatorship but people don't like fighting losing war especially when they've just been told their isn't a war!
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Mar 5, 2022 01:41
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Charlz Guybon posted:Woah...this guy doesn't link to the video, but some of the replies do. It is by far the most graphic I've seen so far. So only check it out if you have a strong stomach. Gore really bothers me but this is so gory it doesn't even feel real. Like a bad Halloween decoration  Edit: This isn't even a good description of that video but I'm still going to spoil it because... because.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:43
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That Italian Guy posted:I'm not clicking that and I don't want any gory details, but...were the russians trying to catpure Hostomel again and were they repealed again? Is this recent news?  BE Warned! The video is linked in there...its brutal. There's gore.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:43
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HonorableTB posted:Punching a nazi is one thing. Causing global thermonuclear exchanges is another thing entirely. Mods can we have a Clancy-chat exemption based on the fact that this is interesting. Dante fucked around with this message at 01:45 on Mar 5, 2022 |
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Mar 5, 2022 01:43
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I feel like this statement would really piss off a famous Russian author but I'm not sure which one. Varlam Shalamov?
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Mar 5, 2022 01:43
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HolHorsejob posted:Stolen Russian vodka will work, in a pinch I considered adding an optional liberated BTR-90 to the end of the recipe, but decided to just play it straight.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:44
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:If this continues for the rest of the month I simply cannot fathom a full scale war lasting that much longer. Russia might be a dictatorship but people don't like fighting losing war especially when they've just been told their isn't a war! Both the Russo Japanese war and world war 1 ended in revolutions precisely because there were enormous casualties and they still lost
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Mar 5, 2022 01:44
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gay picnic defence posted:Did those Ukrainian pilots allegedly flown to Poland ever come back with new jets? The pro move would be to give them a 2 week crash course in flying F-16s or something so they can get replacement planes and missiles direct from the US. Enable Ukraine to fire modern anti radar missiles and there won't be any need to enforce a NFZ. Minimum 6 months really. 9 months I think is what the Air Force does. I believe the Navy it is almost 12 months but the squeeze the both the basic instrument flying and whatnot along with advanced combat and carrier operations in one swoop where the Air Force separates it. I believe the F-14 pilots needed 6 months to be qualified for the F-18 when squadrons switched. Moving from a Soviet era airframe to a F-16 isn't an easy thing. They are vastly different beasts with almost everything about them is different. Hell even the Stick is on the side instead of between the legs. Really if that was the long term solution, and really it should be, the idea would be sending a handful of pilots and maintenance recruits to start getting trained now. A 100-150 trainees for that role is a lot more useful getting that right now instead of what they would be doing in country. Same with potential US/NATO provided Anti-Air solutions. Losing 500-750 recruits to get this training now will pay off tenfold in months since the threat from Russia isn't going away any time soon.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:45
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Morrow posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1499891142107693057 GhostofJohnMuir posted:if the ground off the roads is bogging down the russians, it'd do the same to the ukranians. they don't need to invest every foot around the city like a medieval siege, they just need to control every major highway and road, and that includes positioning guns in spots that can reliably hit the roads when spotters request fire. You are correct in that they don't need a 90km trench line but neither can they just put a bunch of stuff sitting on the crossroads into Kyiv and call it a day since it assumes the Ukrainians will do nothing. That is the "loose" cordon that he is referring to and that can be effective only if assuming the Ukrainians don't have additional units to breach the sieging units. Hence the concept of the inner and outer cordon. Two sets of units, one sealing the defenders in and another unit ensuring that relief forces can't penetrate the cordon in at certain points to run convoys through. The big unknown is just how many units the Ukrainians have left in reserve and of what quality. If the Ukrainians get grounded down to the point where they can't effectively mount a relief attack to sneak supplies in then the cordon could be very loose and take up very little manpower indeed. So far the Ukrainians have held the line in the West and according to their General Staff, the Russians have already put in their reserves and gotten nowhere. Units are now being moved from other sectors and are being redirected towards Kyiv. If Russian social media is to be believed before it got shut down, out of theatre units are also being moved in. I missed the US DoD presser though so I can't tell if the Americans have confirmed/denied that. That Italian Guy posted:I'm not clicking that and I don't want any gory details, but...were the russians trying to catpure Hostomel again and were they repealed again? Is this recent news? This probably happened 2 nights ago Ukrainian time. It was released at 4am Eastern (so morning in Ukraine). Russian armored vehicles with their upper hulls blown off and charred Russian bodies lying on the street next to them in some unfortunate poses. One poor sod hanging upside down off a small turret. The airport is along one of the routes into Kyiv. Basically every major road into Kyiv is the scene of fighting though some Russian units have apparently switched over to the defensive. All this is via the Ukrainian military so take with a grain of salt. MikeC fucked around with this message at 01:52 on Mar 5, 2022 |
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Mar 5, 2022 01:46
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madeintaipei posted:Varlam Shalamov? I was thinking more Tolstoy at the end of his life when he hated everything, but he was also a devout Christian and hating the idea of having a purpose in life doesn't seem particularly Christian. My Russian lit undergrad class was a long, long time ago.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:48
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Morrow posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1499891142107693057 That particular point doesn't hold. He's thinking too quantitatively and seems to realize it when he doesn't finish the calculation to 90 you did. As if somehow a BTG cannot attack a target 1001 m away? Or that the Russians are limited to the roads due impassable mud, but incoming supplies can float over the mud between two BTGs that are 1001 m to each side? Of course not. But the gist of his thread stands, it doesn't seem like this force is up to it when it has to deal with the rest of the country as well.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:49
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Both the Russo Japanese war and world war 1 ended in revolutions precisely because there were enormous casualties and they still lost Not the first one
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Mar 5, 2022 01:49
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:If this continues for the rest of the month I simply cannot fathom a full scale war lasting that much longer. Russia might be a dictatorship but people don't like fighting losing war especially when they've just been told their isn't a war! If this continues for the rest of the month in the same fashion the war will be over because there won't be a russian army left to continue it. Ukraine may run out of cities but Russia is well on track to running out of soldiers at this rate.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:51
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Both the Russo Japanese war and world war 1 ended in revolutions precisely because there were enormous casualties and they still lost If anything, going full Grozny or Aleppo on Kiev, this special place in Russian hearts (I keep reading) is going get some very bad reactions in Moscow. Or is that "special place in Russian hearts" all bullshit?
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Mar 5, 2022 01:51
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That Italian Guy posted:I'm not clicking that and I don't want any gory details, but...were the russians trying to catpure Hostomel again and were they repealed again? Is this recent news? It's swapped hands a few times now. Sending airborne guys to capture and hold it without immediate support has been one of Russia's bigger blunders so far. They also lost some very modern helicopters flying them in and out.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:54
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:If this continues for the rest of the month in the same fashion the war will be over because there won't be a russian army left to continue it. Russia has a massive army and could easily mobilize reservists or more conscripts. They'll probably run into production bottlenecks for military vehicles before they run out of people.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:54
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:god bless kherson llama wouldn't it be funny if it walked up to the occupiers and spit on them
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Mar 5, 2022 01:55
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:god bless kherson llama  What a sweetie. And he might even be useful, llamas make great pack animals! Ideal for carrying away Russian loot.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:55
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Even if Russia gets ground down, it might cost the Ukrainian army so badly they are unable to counterattack and regain all the land lost to Russia so far - which wouldn't be a great position to prepare for a round 2 (which Putin would probably go for by his latest mindset)
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Mar 5, 2022 01:55
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:If this continues for the rest of the month I simply cannot fathom a full scale war lasting that much longer. Russia might be a dictatorship but people don't like fighting losing war especially when they've just been told their isn't a war! Most Russians aren't seeing any of sort of stuff.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:56
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Both the Russo Japanese war and world war 1 ended in revolutions precisely because there were enormous casualties and they still lost May you expand upon this? I'm not well versed World War 1 history. Hieronymous Alloy posted:If this continues for the rest of the month in the same fashion the war will be over because there won't be a russian army left to continue it. How many total causalities do they have? Dante posted:Russia has a massive army and could easily mobilize reservists or more conscripts. They'll probably run into production bottlenecks for military vehicles before they run out of people. This is honestly the main point of sanctions. Even the Russian military is dependent upon western technology supply chains.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:56
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Dante posted:Mods can we have a Clancy-chat exemption based on the fact that this is interesting. No.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:57
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I am not sure how many of you listened to this report but for me it was pretty chilling. Reportedly Putin has been considering using nukes in the war in Ukraine from the start. The parts where nukes are discussed are approximately at timepoints: 4:20 23:40 26:40 I know the resistance to Clancy talk in this thread but Bellingcat does not just throw around conspiracy theories.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:57
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Despera posted:Not the first one Russo Japanese war heavily contributed to the 1905 revolution, which was admittedly a bit less successful
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Mar 5, 2022 01:57
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Dante posted:Russia has a massive army and could easily mobilize reservists or more conscripts. They'll probably run into production bottlenecks for military vehicles before they run out of people. Having a nominal number of newly conscripted bodies holding rifles isn't really meaningful if they don't have training, leadership, or a way to get to the combat theater other than walking.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:57
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Ola posted:That particular point doesn't hold. He's thinking too quantitatively and seems to realize it when he doesn't finish the calculation to 90 you did. As if somehow a BTG cannot attack a target 1001 m away? Or that the Russians are limited to the roads due impassable mud, but incoming supplies can float over the mud between two BTGs that are 1001 m to each side? Of course not. But the gist of his thread stands, it doesn't seem like this force is up to it when it has to deal with the rest of the country as well. It's true that war isn't a pure game of numbers, but back of the napkin calculations are valuable for giving us a sense of what is possible. They don't have enough troops to fully encircle Kyiv, defend their exterior lines, and conduct operations elsewhere. That means they need to take one or more of these cities by assault.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:57
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That Italian Guy posted:I'm not clicking that and I don't want any gory details, but...were the russians trying to catpure Hostomel again and were they repealed again? Is this recent news? Video description for those who understandably do not want to view it (40 seconds long): Caption: Bloodbath for Russians in Hostomel near Kyiv which has been the scene for the fierce clashes between Russian and Ukranian forces. Video was posted by one of the Ukrainian telegram channels. Allegedly this is from this morning. Video posted about 2:30 AM on the 4th. Portrays a street damaged by war, with multiple tanks in it. The camera pans over several of them. The first appears to be basically melted where the turret connects, with no turret on the machine, just an empty gaping hole. On the ground in front are two corpses. The first is in very bad shape, seeming burnt, and the second has numerous wounds. The camera pans to another corpse lying on the ground facedown in the middle of the street, before showing a second destroyed tank. A dead body is dangling out of the tank. The camera finally shows two more corpses lying on the side of the road, the puddles on the ground slightly red from their blood. Video ends there. There are things which I can't really tell what they are but I think may be severed body parts. EDIT: I'm not familiar with the military so I can't tell you any useful info about things like what part of the army they're from (IE VDV vs regular army), makes of the tanks, etc. see no weevil fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Mar 5, 2022 |
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Mar 5, 2022 01:58
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:This is honestly the main point of sanctions. Even the Russian military is dependent upon western technology supply chains.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:58
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I was thinking more Tolstoy at the end of his life when he hated everything, but he was also a devout Christian and hating the idea of having a purpose in life doesn't seem particularly Christian. Shalamov took issue with Solzhenitsyn's optimistic lesson of the Gulag that, "Only when they have taken everything from you, are you truly free." I'll paraphrase Shalamov's argument as, "No, dammit! You just end up hungry, sick, and then dead. gently caress, my lungs hurt." He's a rough read sometimes.
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Mar 5, 2022 01:58
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499649093802541057?s=20&t=4K8UIG92YUc9pQSY5QoaMw
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Mar 5, 2022 02:00
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Dante posted:Russia has a massive army and could easily mobilize reservists or more conscripts. They'll probably run into production bottlenecks for military vehicles before they run out of people. It would be a lot easier to believe their alleged infinite reserve of people would mean something if it was an ideological war of survival and not a poorly understood war against fellow slavs. Training more and more people to fight against their will to do something that is causing at least some of them to actively sabotage their own vehicles (if that's true) is not good news for the regime in the long run. Masses of disaffected soldiers made the Russian revolution possible. Training lots and lots of young men then dumping them back into a collapsed economy after a failed war his how we got the Soviet union in the first place.
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Mar 5, 2022 02:01
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SirTagz posted:I am not sure how many of you listened to this report but for me it was pretty chilling. I had the same fears listening to this yesterday but didn't post it due to clancychat. Since its been brought up anyway, I'll just make the point that the prevailing winds in the Ukraine blow right to Russia, so any use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would lead to bathing Russia in the fallout.
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Mar 5, 2022 02:02
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Dante posted:Is it though? I have no idea, but presumably someone in the Russian system would think that having the military supply chain depend on your main geopolitical rival for the past 70 years would be ill-advised. Russia has a large domestic arms industry, but it was at least a decade behind at the end of the Cold War. Part of their recent modernization relied on importing some advanced technology from the west that they couldn't produce domestically, plus savings costs by outsourcing some supply chain elements elsewhere.
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Mar 5, 2022 02:02
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:This is honestly the main point of sanctions. Even the Russian military is dependent upon western technology supply chains. Apparently they were getting a lot of their steel from Slovenia, Poland, and I think Germany. Russia has its own steel industry but it would have to majorly ramp up production and how they hell are they going to do that with no money?
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Mar 5, 2022 02:03
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Morrow posted:It's true that war isn't a pure game of numbers, but back of the napkin calculations are valuable for giving us a sense of what is possible. They don't have enough troops to fully encircle Kyiv, defend their exterior lines, and conduct operations elsewhere. That means they need to take one or more of these cities by assault. surely if you don't have the troops to besiege a major city, you definitely don't have the troops to grind through block by block? even if you use thermobarics to reduce the entire city to rubble it'd still be a meat grinder to clear
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Mar 5, 2022 02:03
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That Italian Guy posted:I'm not clicking that and I don't want any gory details, but...were the russians trying to catpure Hostomel again and were they repealed again? Is this recent news? Russians have been in control parts of Hostomel from....like day 2. They still are
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Mar 5, 2022 02:03
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So during my Sabbatical did I take a break from twitter? Lol no, I am become news, destroyer of worlds. So a bunch more yachts got seized. Handy map of which are seized, which are still seas-ed, and where they are below! https://twitter.com/PutinIsAVirus/status/1499872383796137998?s=20&t=ES-kgY0rEBNezaD39PxozA Speaking of seas, it's weirdly hard to find anything concrete about whats going on in Odesa. Apparently the Russian Navy is going to make their move tonight, but they said that last night too. Current ship totals and last known positions of the Black sea fleet are in the clickthrough images below. I can post them separately if anyone wants. https://twitter.com/TheShipYard2/status/1499796044309315597?s=20&t=ES-kgY0rEBNezaD39PxozA UK Defense intelligence assessment of the air situation is more measured than the US - stating that Russia has merely failed to gain air superiority https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499889915924033540?s=20&t=ES-kgY0rEBNezaD39PxozA Also lol if you think we can have only one major crisis at a time. Just lol. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1499898705805258752?s=20&t=ES-kgY0rEBNezaD39PxozA I'm gonna try and curate/space out my news stuff so I don't overwhelm the thread
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Mar 5, 2022 02:03
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That Italian Guy posted:I wonder if Trump, Brexit and Putin's folly in Ukraine are going to be some kind of reality check/pressure release in the grand scheme of things instead of being herald of worse things to come. Each of these is horrible, but their intrinsic failures may have prevented something even worse from materializing - like the immediate Brexit aftermath stealing the wind from a lot of anti-EU nationalist parties in the rest of Europe or everyone realizing how bad of an idea it is to start a war with a semi-peer western country. Guess one could argue that Trump has also somehow split the GOP, but it doesn't seem so clear cut. id say trump has damaged conservatism for alot of Americans especially U40s, like yeah he just took the mask off and etc etc but it will be interesting to see what happens to the GOP when he dies and or fucks up in 2024. putin basicaly imploded all his soft power which will probably hurt the international hard right(as well as some tankies and other groups). SirTagz posted:I am not sure how many of you listened to this report but for me it was pretty chilling. i wouldnt be shocked if he tries some low yield smaller thing on kyiv or something, but i am pretty sure he would die if he ordered that but i dont think he will order it. my guess is chemical weapons. Charlz Guybon posted:Woah...this guy doesn't link to the video, but some of the replies do. It is by far the most graphic I've seen so far. So only check it out if you have a strong stomach. yeah, they are throwing green troops/etc with armor with no combined forces OR etc.
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