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fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Boris Galerkin posted:

From that translated letter:



Is this passage implying that the analysts are pressured to downplay problems?

As in some officer asks a guy to come up with scenarios in the case of x happening, and the guy doing the analysis reports only the positive aspects (or massively downplays the negatives) because he knows that the officer’s higher ups only wants to hear good news?

Yes, this kind of thing is built in Russian civil service, military and police. Implies that the invasion was someone's pet project that was presented to Putin as managable.

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cynic
Jan 19, 2004



Nessus posted:

That's their domain codes and UA is easier to type than UKR (and just UK has some risk of confusion, Putin isn't landing at Bristol... yet)

Bristol is well overdue a de-hipsterification.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
Uhhhh, how are people in Russia supposed to pay for anything? Is Visa/Mastercard as ubiquitous there as it is in the U.S.?

Edit: Oh I see someone clarified above, sounds like Visa/Mastercard will work within Russia still but only for cards issues there.

Popete fucked around with this message at 00:31 on Mar 6, 2022

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Boris Galerkin posted:

From that translated letter:



Is this passage implying that the analysts are pressured to downplay problems?

As in some officer asks a guy to come up with scenarios in the case of x happening, and the guy doing the analysis reports only the positive aspects (or massively downplays the negatives) because he knows that the officer’s higher ups only wants to hear good news?

It says they are busy with real problems, so when somebody asks for a report on some bullshit (invasion of Ukraine, lol, imagine that), they just write what the bosses want to read, i.e. we have the resources to theoretically achieve our objectives. But then everybody goes back to work on the real issue and nobody remembers the report on Ukraine even got commissioned, so when the order comes saying "you have 24 hours to put your plan for Ukraine into action", it is as though there were no plan, because it was written only perfunctorily, and because nobody has bothered to study it and make sure at least its basic preconditions remain true.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

fatherboxx posted:

Yes, this kind of thing is built in Russian civil service, military and police. Implies that the invasion was someone's pet project that was presented to Putin as managable.

Also may imply that they're still passing that kind of report up the chain--i.e., some higher-up people, even Putin, may not properly understand what they're facing.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Popete posted:

Uhhhh, how are people in Russia supposed to pay for anything? Is Visa/Mastercard as ubiquitous there as it is in the U.S.?

Internal transactions would still work, it would just be impossible to use with any outside service or outside of Russia.

Missing Name
Jan 5, 2013


Naturally, I've been seeing lots of posts using Kino's Группа Крови (Blood Type)* in the background because drat is it a good anti war song

Granted it was written to protest Afghanistan but apparently people are still using it today

*this version is the harder to find re-recorded version, not the original

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

Boris Galerkin posted:

From that translated letter:



Is this passage implying that the analysts are pressured to downplay problems?

As in some officer asks a guy to come up with scenarios in the case of x happening, and the guy doing the analysis reports only the positive aspects (or massively downplays the negatives) because he knows that the officer’s higher ups only wants to hear good news?

That seems like pretty classical behaviour to me.
During the so called Great Leap Forward in China there had been massive food shortages due to awful harvests, but since nobody wanted to bring bad news, a lot of local leaders transported the planned amount of crops to the capital, starving their local population. Some went even so far that they greatly exceeded their pension.
This did not end well...

Congrats for placing it in a negative light, SA is now banned in China!

cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 00:35 on Mar 6, 2022

Xarn
Jun 26, 2015

Tuna-Fish posted:

In the US, the credit card company takes a ridiculously huge cut in merchant fees. Then they have all kinds of programs to kick part of these back to the consumer in "points" to compete with each other.

In the EU, the fees paid for credit card transactions are capped at 0.3% by law. Not much room for weird kickback schemes.

That actually explains a lot. I was often wondering why my experience of using cards here is so different from what I hear from Americans. (Not enough to go digging, though :v:)

EscapeHere
Jan 16, 2005

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

China can come into Russia and turn the country even more capitalist with the Russian economy tied to cheap Chinese credit.

gently caress

Or, once this is all over, the west could do a Marshall Plan 2.0 for Russia and Ukraine (And Belarus if it falls as collateral damage).

But it probably won't, because short term gains are better than long term strategic interests apparently.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

Boris Galerkin posted:

From that translated letter:



Is this passage implying that the analysts are pressured to downplay problems?

Yes, and they've also been told it doesn't matter, because the scenario is entirely fictional.

Liquid Chicken
Jan 25, 2005

GOOP

Only credit card left in Russia - Russian Express, "Don't leave home".

with a rebel yell she QQd
Jan 18, 2007

Villain


Popete posted:

Uhhhh, how are people in Russia supposed to pay for anything? Is Visa/Mastercard as ubiquitous there as it is in the U.S.?

Edit: Oh I see someone clarified above, sounds like Visa/Mastercard will work within Russia still but only for cards issues there.

My wife lives with me in Hungary, but gets her salary in Russia. A significant amount of her savings are in Russia (because transferring money out of the country has been limited for years), now we can wave good bye to it all. loving fantastic. Basically she just lost her savings and her job, and shes been crying all evening before this news even came in.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Xarn posted:

That actually explains a lot. I was often wondering why my experience of using cards here is so different from what I hear from Americans. (Not enough to go digging, though :v:)

I always wondered why Americans were so excited to have CC companies steal their money in exchange for some stupid prizes and points.

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

steinrokkan posted:

I always wondered why Americans were so excited to have CC companies steal their money in exchange for some stupid prizes and points.

I always assumed that was because using credit cards is the only way to built credit score over there. Some Stockholm syndrome situation.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

with a rebel yell she QQd posted:

My wife lives with me in Hungary, but gets her salary in Russia. A significant amount of her savings are in Russia (because transferring money out of the country has been limited for years), now we can wave good bye to it all. loving fantastic. Basically she just lost her savings and her job, and shes been crying all evening before this news even came in.

It seems like a really stupid move because it only hurts Russian expats and foreigners in Russia. I'd even go so far as to say that something like this plays right into the hands of the Russian gov and their capital controls.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

with a rebel yell she QQd posted:

My wife lives with me in Hungary, but gets her salary in Russia. A significant amount of her savings are in Russia (because transferring money out of the country has been limited for years), now we can wave good bye to it all. loving fantastic. Basically she just lost her savings and her job, and shes been crying all evening before this news even came in.

That blows rather hard. I guess one could hope that the ruble will rise again? Well, you could hope.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


steinrokkan posted:

I always wondered why Americans were so excited to have CC companies steal their money in exchange for some stupid prizes and points.

You don’t pay interest on credit cards if you pay the balance off immediately or at the end of the month in which case it’s just a bank card with points. Plus it helps build your credit rating which lets you get better rates for loans and mortgages. It also protects you from scams and poor service because you can cancel charges whereas if you use your bank card it’s just gone.

Credit cards are a doubled edged sword if you pay them off immediately they’re better in every single way than bank cards. If you use them to spend money you don’t have or you forget and didn’t set up autopay they will loving destroy you.

tractor fanatic
Sep 9, 2005

Pillbug
Credit card fees are charged to the merchant, not to the customer. Some higher end cards do have annual fees though

MrMidnight
Aug 3, 2006

with a rebel yell she QQd posted:

My wife lives with me in Hungary, but gets her salary in Russia. A significant amount of her savings are in Russia (because transferring money out of the country has been limited for years), now we can wave good bye to it all. loving fantastic. Basically she just lost her savings and her job, and shes been crying all evening before this news even came in.

Sorry to hear this, hope things turn out ok

Gatts
Jan 2, 2001

Goodnight Moon

Nap Ghost

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

China can come into Russia and turn the country even more capitalist with the Russian economy tied to cheap Chinese credit.

gently caress

That is pretty much going to be a fallout of this I think. I think China has a lot to win out here with influence over Russia to get it back on feet. While I’m sure Putin would gnash his teeth he’ll probably have to let them in to survive.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!
Also keep in mind re: credit cards is that at least in countries like Belgium and Netherlands a credit card needs to be paid in full every month, whereas in the US it’s basically a loan with a 25% rate for most people. A lot of people are using credit cards out of necessity for literally not having enough cash to pay for things otherwise.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

steinrokkan posted:

I always wondered why Americans were so excited to have CC companies steal their money in exchange for some stupid prizes and points.

For me, I pay mine off every month and so I pay no fees or interest, so it costs me nothing, plus I get points on payments I would have made anyway through some other means and I build my credit.

Other people use them differently, though.

Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 00:52 on Mar 6, 2022

Hand Row
May 28, 2001

steinrokkan posted:

I always wondered why Americans were so excited to have CC companies steal their money in exchange for some stupid prizes and points.

The merchants are the ones who pay the fees unless you are arguing the merchant is raising their prices accordingly. Besides rewards the fraud and security protections of a cc makes it much better to use as well. If you get bogus charges it’s vastly easier dealing with a CC vs debit.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

fatherboxx posted:

Yes, this kind of thing is built in Russian civil service, military and police. Implies that the invasion was someone's pet project that was presented to Putin as managable.

I’m picturing Russia’s version of the my pillow guy walking up to Putin with a folder of papers titled “invasion of Ukraine.”

Vando
Oct 26, 2007

stoats about

fatherboxx posted:

Yes, this kind of thing is built in Russian civil service, military and police. Implies that the invasion was someone's pet project that was presented to Putin as managable.

It's also built into most bureaucratic systems that rely on reports being fed up the chain: if someone asks you how things are going, for the most part people are going to paint a rosy picture and think "if something comes up, it's only a small setback and we can handle it before it affects anything so we won't mention it".

Then all of a sudden you try to perform an operation that requires many moving parts, each of those moving parts has unrevealed weaknesses that aren't accounted for in timetabling, resource management etc and all of a sudden the entire system comes crashing down.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Another convoy abandonment. Out in the middle of nowhere. Where do these abandoners go?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1500206061403443203?cxt=HHwWhsC4vdzd5tEpAAAA

Bell_
Sep 3, 2006

Tiny Baltimore
A billion light years away
A goon's posting the same thing
But he's already turned to dust
And the shitpost we read
Is a billion light-years old
A ghost just like the rest of us

PerilPastry posted:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1500168055850213382?s=20&t=0rl4bw0Mv1HCXzRfWilVWg

Was this discussed?

The full quote, thankfully, seems a good deal softer.

""These sanctions that are being imposed are akin to a declaration of war but thank God it has not come to that," Putin said, speaking to a group of flight attendants at an Aeroflot training centre near Moscow."

He also emphasizes that a no-fly zone in Ukraine *would* be considered by Russia to be a step into the military conflict so it seems like their red line remains the same.
Gerasimov made the comparison some years back, and I'm sure the Kremlin has considered it so in their world of zero-sum perspectives.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


It’s Kharkiv just like walk a bit and you’re in Russia again

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

the popes toes posted:

Another convoy abandonment. Out in the middle of nowhere. Where do these abandoners go?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1500206061403443203?cxt=HHwWhsC4vdzd5tEpAAAA

That's a lot of riot gear.

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

Hannibal Rex posted:

It's been a bit that I watched it, so i might get some of his wording wrong, but a pretty glaring mistake he makes is that he conflates America and the EU as "the West". It's easy to declare Russia a regional power that's of no threat to America, and that the real focus of America should be on China. But Russia and Ukraine are very much an existential issue to Europe. Either Europe expands democracy East, or Russia expands authoritarianism West. It's been the assumption that Europe can afford to be patient, eventually Russia would acculturate, and Ukraine could serve as a bridge between them in the meantime. Putin has categorically taken that option of the table, as long as he and his clique remain in power. Europe really, really can't ignore that.

Mearsheimer seems to think America can afford to ignore Russia and abandon Europe, in order to focus on China.

I believe the segment you are thinking of is when he said that as time goes on more focus is going to be put on China which is 100% correct. Russia is a dying and decaying power that is losing influence as each day passes. The invasion of Ukraine isn't them flexing their power, it's a death throes. The fact that Ukraine has held Russia off to this degree is further proof of that. Meanwhile China is a rising superstar that already has the highest GDP PPP in the world and with a larger population than the U.S., EU, and Russia combined it has a lot more room to grow. IIRC there was a post today stating that China increased it's military budget by 7% this year and that seems to be a trend.

He never stated in the video to take focus off Russia completely, but that in the future new powers will rise and world politics will gradually be something closer to a few existing great powers rather than the single sole hyperpower world we have today.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

steinrokkan posted:

I always wondered why Americans were so excited to have CC companies steal their money in exchange for some stupid prizes and points.

Well before the late 70s/early 80s the credit card was basically non-existent. There were some individual big stores that had a primitive version of credit for big, longtime customers but that was about it. Most Americans saved their money in the banks and bought things when they had the means to outside of big purchases like a home where you would need a loan. Even auto loans weren't super common back then.

Then you had Reagan and the deregulation of the banking and financial sectors in so many ways and the rise of the credit card. For many years credit was something that only well off people had for a lot of reasons, but in the early to mid 90s the credit companies had grown and started to try to get not only lower income customers but also compete against each other for existing customers. See the rise of "value plus" cards which you have points, miles, prizes and then later cash back.

Europe has better consumer protections thankfully but in the United States the credit industry runs wild.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!
Also “meteorites?” Are Russian missiles/artillery/shells called meteorites and the translation just translated it literally?

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Chalks posted:

It seems like a really stupid move because it only hurts Russian expats and foreigners in Russia. I'd even go so far as to say that something like this plays right into the hands of the Russian gov and their capital controls.

I mean, I think that is the point, they don't want foreigners dealing with russia. That is kinda what a sanction does. They wouldn't want russia to feel the strain of isolation then have a bunch of foreign money streaming in from like, bargain seeking tourists or something.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

the popes toes posted:

Another convoy abandonment. Out in the middle of nowhere. Where do these abandoners go?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1500206061403443203?cxt=HHwWhsC4vdzd5tEpAAAA

Probably either surrender or try to find shelter.

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

Boris Galerkin posted:

Also keep in mind re: credit cards is that at least in countries like Belgium and Netherlands a credit card needs to be paid in full every month, whereas in the US it’s basically a loan with a 25% rate for most people. A lot of people are using credit cards out of necessity for literally not having enough cash to pay for things otherwise.

Yeah, Credit Cards used like that are pretty much just convenient loan sharks preying on the desperate. Your little Visa card would totally break your kneecaps if it could.

E Depois do Adeus
Jun 3, 2012


Nobody has better respect for intelligence than Donald Trump.


The perfidious Dutch strike again

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

the popes toes posted:

Another convoy abandonment. Out in the middle of nowhere. Where do these abandoners go?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1500206061403443203?cxt=HHwWhsC4vdzd5tEpAAAA

Looks like crowd control/riot equipment? A symptom of their over-optimistic planning I guess - I wonder how much of their supply convoys contain equipment that's completely useless at this stage of the conflict.

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse

the popes toes posted:

Another convoy abandonment. Out in the middle of nowhere. Where do these abandoners go?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1500206061403443203?cxt=HHwWhsC4vdzd5tEpAAAA

I guess the classic scenario is that the point vehicle gets RPG-d or Javelined. The convoy stops, everybody bails out and once the situation calms down they just board one of the trucks, turn around and get back to wherever they came from.

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Big K of Justice
Nov 27, 2005

Anyone seen my ball joints?

Family Values posted:

"The Day After"

That movie reminded me of how obvious people can be to current events, that even in face of some huge danger they'll be in denial to the end. I figured.. well that's disaster movies for you, but if Covid and this crisis is proving, yeah it's not a movie thing at all.

Some lady at Costco today didn't understand why gas prices were up a buck a gallon since last week, I shook my head.

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