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Rincewinds
Jul 30, 2014

MEAT IS MEAT

Grape posted:

Georgia is no surprise at all, but it is funny how quickly Kazakhstan slides into Angry Russian Nationalist Talking Point.
Tokayev must be making so many calls to Beijing these days. I know I would be.

The famines that followed when Soviet desided to turn the nomadic Kazakhs into collectivized farmers killed about a third of them, and the following deportation of russians made the Kazahks into a minority in their own state, until they became independent. Even today about 20% is russian, so Kazakhstan usually follow the russian line quite diligently, to avoid that the northern parts suddenly becoming a part of Russia.

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MechanicalTomPetty
Oct 30, 2011

Runnin' down a dream
That never would come to me
I'm not sure if this really can last a long time; most of the frozen conflicts of the last few decades were because both sides were too weak to maintain aggression or because an outside great power swept in to prop them up. This time the main aggressor IS a "great power" (historically and on paper anyways), nobody is going to swoop in to help them (maybe Belarus and Kazakhstan if things get really bad but their militaries are peanuts compared to Russia) and Ukraine basically has the full support of the EU and NATO to fall back on. Its going to be a horrific bloodbath of a meatgrinder but however things shake out I imagine will start to crystalize over the next month or so.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

It could last years depending on if we start seeing trenches forming and defensive ramparts being created at specific lines.

Aswell as depending on the aide from Europe. If we start seeing tanks and the likes being given to Ukraine we will never see the end of this.

The other thing, if Putin's rhetoric keeps going up and up in terms of vengeance for supplying Ukraine, then the war will need to be kept going just to push the answer to the question out longer and longer. As in what happens when Ukraine is over?

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Okay, let me rephrase it another way. Russian announcements in Russian language very arrogantly have been proclaiming total annihilation of anything relevant for two days now, and suddenly they have a whole load of bombing yet to do. On the targets we’ve already seen struck in the recent days. Hence, I’m mildly amusing, and wondering why they feel like saying that at this moment.

There must be a misunderstanding then because you said Russian news said they destroyed “military facilities” and the tweet we’re talking about was iirc them announcing that they’re going to be bombing the defense industry enterprises.

To me military facilities and the defense industry are not the same things. The people working at Raytheon and Northrop Grumman are not working for the military, are not working inside military facilities, and are not related to the military at all. They are just regular people working inside civilian office buildings who may or may not even be working on defense related stuff. For example if some country were to bomb Northrop offices in the LA area then they not only murder people designing weapons but also people working on things like James Webb.

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea

KitConstantine posted:

Russian politician sweeping Georgia and Kazakhstan into the bio weapon conspiracy
https://twitter.com/DrewOCCRP/status/1500432166668410881?t=uzZdomGje1dOtMV-MpFHIA&s=19

"Yes, neighbouring countries are conducting indiscriminate bio warfare against our country."

"What am I doing about this horrific crime against humanity? Uhhhhh...."

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

It could last years depending on if we start seeing trenches forming and defensive ramparts being created at specific lines.

Right. I could definitely see this turning into a trench warfare scenario.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Shibawanko posted:

so by all accounts now this is going to last for a long time? raab said it might last years, how realistic is that?

It really depends. At the rate that Russia is losing material that they are unable to replace any time soon I have my doubts that they will be able to field much more offense for that much longer. I think you are starting to see desperation from them in terms of going to leveling population centers which the did not want to do and likely going to use both older, worse weapons and newer, irreplaceable ones to try to eck out a "win".

Bigger issue is even if they "win" they are going to have a heavily hostile country that is going to have a flood of NATO weapons and support coming in. If you know anything about the Russian ordeals in Afghanistan this will be 100x worse.

Effectively they are like a gambler that lost what budgeted and more and now has to take out a loan from the mob to try and win it all back. Stupid high risk and little chance of success.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Helmetcam footage of Ukranian SF engaging tanks with RPGS (no gore, but burning tanks in the background at the end): https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1500544341554700291

I can just about imagine what it would be like to be drafted into a war and stand where I'm told to stand and shoot in the direction I'm told to shoot and probably end up dying in some way I couldn't possibly avoid. But you see over and over again in accounts from WW2 - there's a certain proportion of people who find themselves in a war and rather than keep their head down decide they are going to go hunt tanks.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1500550763516465155?s=20&t=B6n9bT8fctmVNuWRvwyazw

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




OddObserver posted:

They already bombed some of that stuff (and supposedly stuff that's purely industrial), though dunno how much damage that did.

They also bombed power stations and then put out a bunch of propaganda saying that the Ukrainian authorities were deliberately cutting off their people from electricity.

Or at least they tried to? It seems like they were a lot less successful at that than they're making things out to be.

Anubis
Oct 9, 2003

It's hard to keep sand out of ears this big.
Fun Shoe

Welp, time to weaponize old early/mid 2000 FYAD and get these guys to walk off the job.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

They should play nice and give the missiles back to Russians.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


Nenonen posted:

They should play nice and give the missiles back to Russians.

Beppo Schmid reports to Putin that they shot down more Ukrainian aircraft than numerically possible. 0 Russian losses.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Nenonen posted:

They should play nice and give the missiles back to Russians.
Oh I'm sure they will

MRLOLAST
May 9, 2013

Kraftwerk posted:

How are a lot of these countries going to get the required personnel they need for their militaries when West European populations have been in decline and they’re adverse to immigration. Much of the benefits and reasons many Americans sign up for the US military are already provided for in the social safety net of these nations. A German isn’t gonna sign up to serve in the Bundeswehr for GI bill related benefits because it only costs them like 300 Euro to go to university.

You have plenty of impoverished flyover states and family military dynasties in the US to draw on recruits by comparison.

Same as always, conscription. You need to increase the reserve officer corpse and the warrant officers for long term professionals but so long as it is for defense it doesn't have to be super complicated high tech super soldiers you are training.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Those look like the first model Iglas made only in 1981-83. If so, it's strange the Russians are bringing along what should be bottom of the barrel of their stocks?

E: Or maybe not, hard to tell

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


steinrokkan posted:

Those look like the first model Iglas made only in 1981-83. If so, it's strange the Russians are bringing along what should be bottom of the barrel of their stocks?

E: Or maybe not, hard to tell

We're about to find out if the Russian air force has trained to be fired on by their own weapons!

MRLOLAST
May 9, 2013

Alchenar posted:

Helmetcam footage of Ukranian SF engaging tanks with RPGS (no gore, but burning tanks in the background at the end): https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1500544341554700291

I can just about imagine what it would be like to be drafted into a war and stand where I'm told to stand and shoot in the direction I'm told to shoot and probably end up dying in some way I couldn't possibly avoid. But you see over and over again in accounts from WW2 - there's a certain proportion of people who find themselves in a war and rather than keep their head down decide they are going to go hunt tanks.

These are sf, they probably decided a long time ago that they wanted to be proffesional soldiers.

DeeplyConcerned
Apr 29, 2008

I can fit 3 whole bud light cans now, ask me how!

Anubis posted:

Welp, time to weaponize old early/mid 2000 FYAD and get these guys to walk off the job.

scroll scroll scroll *immediately projectile vomits*

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

surf rock posted:

I just looked at it and it's literally just all Russian propaganda

ASB is literally one of the three or four main english language russian nationalist accounts.

Dick Trauma
Nov 30, 2007

God damn it, you've got to be kind.
The number of vehicles and amount of other war materiel being captured by Ukraine is mind-boggling.

MRLOLAST
May 9, 2013

PederP posted:

Actually having surface-to-air capability and basic ammunition stores will also be a nice improvement over the current state of affairs.

Maybe you can finally get a submarine that is not built by a murderer.

Yudo
May 15, 2003

Anubis posted:

Welp, time to weaponize old early/mid 2000 FYAD and get these guys to walk off the job.

I remember the good old days when 90% of SA forum content was reg date elitism and goatse. Thanks for bringing up good memories in the bleak time.

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




Anubis posted:

Welp, time to weaponize old early/mid 2000 FYAD and get these guys to walk off the job.

Lol that'd be a quick way to expand the Federal List of Extremist Materials.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

St. Petersburg as portrayed by fascist Ukrainian photoshoppers.

Things appear to be accelerating

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

the popes toes posted:

St. Petersburg as portrayed by fascist Ukrainian photoshoppers.

Things appear to be accelerating



:lol: Nice. Putin has always loved his hometown, so hopefully this just twists the knife.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

First time in a long time that the historical and modern definitions of the word "decimate" apply
https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1500551253226573826?t=DQmhUZDcsghKJbNMMmZpEQ&s=19

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

So why are we saying that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged when we were just talking about the army perhaps collapsing on monday?

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Grouchio posted:

So why are we saying that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged when we were just talking about the army perhaps collapsing on monday?

Nobody was talking about the army collapsing on Monday.

Also, what does "collapsing" mean

Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God

Alchenar posted:

Helmetcam footage of Ukranian SF engaging tanks with RPGS (no gore, but burning tanks in the background at the end): https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1500544341554700291

I can just about imagine what it would be like to be drafted into a war and stand where I'm told to stand and shoot in the direction I'm told to shoot and probably end up dying in some way I couldn't possibly avoid. But you see over and over again in accounts from WW2 - there's a certain proportion of people who find themselves in a war and rather than keep their head down decide they are going to go hunt tanks.

Those aren't guided, are they? That looked like a hell of a shot.

And one of the most fascinating things I find about these videos is how casual and matter of fact the Ukrainian soldiers seem to be about it. I've seen multiple videos where it's just some soldiers casually walking over, maybe giving a thumbs up to the camera, and then aiming a rocket launcher and blowing up a tank. I know Russia likes to portray their soldiers as hardened badasses but they are clearly losing that image to the Ukrainians.

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

Grouchio posted:

So why are we saying that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged when we were just talking about the army perhaps collapsing on monday?

It's just inconceivable that Russia, the inheritors of the Soviet military stockpiles and codifiers of the endless Eurasian horde, don't have men and material to grind Ukraine down.

But they might not.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

"Mirock's Workshop" is a YouTube channel I follow. Mirock is a Ukrainian craftsman who does absolutely amazing work. Apparently he lives near Bucha (NW of Kyiv) where a Russian convoy got destroyed. He posted this on his channel yesterday:

[no gore, lots of smoking wrecks. All bodies have been removed AFAICT]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWmvtjGFVP0

Franks Happy Place
Mar 15, 2011

It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

KitConstantine posted:

First time in a long time that the historical and modern definitions of the word "decimate" apply
https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1500551253226573826?t=DQmhUZDcsghKJbNMMmZpEQ&s=19

Look at this absolute historical ignorance here, what a rube, can't understand latin.

Some of those Guards regiments are well over 20 per cent losses, not ten, idiot

It's a joke I'm joking, hope you've met a classics scholar

Redgrendel2001
Sep 1, 2006

you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.

Trolling by phone.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1500536652313284611?t=hc2kGC9JeJ6-oUXej_y54Q&s=19

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Grouchio posted:

So why are we saying that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged when we were just talking about the army perhaps collapsing on monday?

IIRC it wasn't so much the entire Russian army collapsing but the forces earmarked for the invasion starting to have an even more severe supply crisis because all the allocated supplies would have run out by then and Russia is clearly scrambling for more given all those civilian vehicles being shipped to the front.

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

KitConstantine posted:

First time in a long time that the historical and modern definitions of the word "decimate" apply
https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1500551253226573826?t=DQmhUZDcsghKJbNMMmZpEQ&s=19

It would surprise me if Russians are killing every tenth truck themselves for disciplinary reasons.

Grouchio posted:

So why are we saying that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged when we were just talking about the army perhaps collapsing on monday?
The Russian army won't actually collapse on monday, people are kinda getting high on literal propaganda posted on twitter. The majority of military analysts who've commented or been interviewed has said the advance has stalled because of poor logistics and tactics. They also almost universally agree that Ukraine is simply too large and too averse to Russia to be successfully occupied. Putin will probably keep throwing the Russian army at this until something breaks.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Bremen posted:

Those aren't guided, are they? That looked like a hell of a shot.

And one of the most fascinating things I find about these videos is how casual and matter of fact the Ukrainian soldiers seem to be about it. I've seen multiple videos where it's just some soldiers casually walking over, maybe giving a thumbs up to the camera, and then aiming a rocket launcher and blowing up a tank. I know Russia likes to portray their soldiers as hardened badasses but they are clearly losing that image to the Ukrainians.

That looks like an RPG :wtc:

I tend to avoid watching these videos but another one I've seen was also "casual" and I'm wondering if it they weren't just shooting an abandoned BMP

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse

Bremen posted:

Those aren't guided, are they? That looked like a hell of a shot.

And one of the most fascinating things I find about these videos is how casual and matter of fact the Ukrainian soldiers seem to be about it. I've seen multiple videos where it's just some soldiers casually walking over, maybe giving a thumbs up to the camera, and then aiming a rocket launcher and blowing up a tank. I know Russia likes to portray their soldiers as hardened badasses but they are clearly losing that image to the Ukrainians.

This tank is obviously abandoned. I doubt they'd take thumbs up pictures during active combat.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Grouchio posted:

So why are we saying that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged when we were just talking about the army perhaps collapsing on monday?

The Russia units in the north are either near or mid collapse from what we can tell.

The Russian units in the South dont' have nearly as long supply lines and seem to actually be taking and holding territory. This may change once the Ukrianian units in the north can move to assist the South.

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Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Alchenar posted:

Helmetcam footage of Ukranian SF engaging tanks with RPGS (no gore, but burning tanks in the background at the end): https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1500544341554700291


What in the gently caress. That's the least fancy RPG you could be using against a loving tank and it just turns it into a bonfire. What on earth is Russia using in that offensive.

But also, there's no small arms fire and no supporting troops around that tank when there should be, so perhaps they are fairly relaxed simply because that tank is abandoned.

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