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FishMcCool posted:It wouldn't have come cheap for Russia, but that would enshrine the Ukrainian territorial losses with no legal recourse down the line, not to mention the forfeiture of any possible war reparations, leaving a ravaged and diminished country constitutionally bound to exist as a neutral buffer zone at the whim of its neighbour's "good will". And with Ukraine's acceptance of the terms, you'd expect most western sanctions to eventually be rolled back. With no demilitarization clause, Ukraine retains a hefty deterrent for further war. Russia is not gonna jump back into conflict after being humiliated. It doesn't leave Ukraine defenseless, but this would give Russia something to hang its hat on and call a win. Reparations are not realistic. Ukraine regaining Crimea and Donbas are not realistic. This is essentially returning Ukraine to the status quo just before the war. Again, if it isn't a deception then they would be foolish to not accept. It requires a referendum to even do the amendment so for it to happen, Russia needs to turn their guys around and leave. It seems like something that they can live with - yes, not ideal, but it seems do-able.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:35
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Ola posted:Oh man, this guy and that meme format. Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania even...
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Mar 7, 2022 13:37
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The status quo, but with tons of destroyed infrastructure and a much worse future outlook. Russia isn't exactly fighting a clean war here.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:38
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uncleTomOfFinland posted:This is what Finland pretty much agreed to after WW2 and it wasn't exactly the worst thing ever. Well that's a username/post combo
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Mar 7, 2022 13:39
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Concerned Citizen posted:With no demilitarization clause, Ukraine retains a hefty deterrent for further war. Russia is not gonna jump back into conflict after being humiliated. It doesn't leave Ukraine defenseless, but this would give Russia something to hang its hat on and call a win. Do you really think the Ukrainians are going to vote in favor of such a proposal? Anyway Russia isn't asking for a referendum to change the Ukrainian constitution, they're just asking that it be changed, now.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:39
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steinrokkan posted:Third round of peace talks, I guess they are taking the dead guy along What's this dead guy people are talking about?
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Mar 7, 2022 13:39
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Concerned Citizen posted:With no demilitarization clause, Ukraine retains a hefty deterrent for further war. Russia is not gonna jump back into conflict after being humiliated. It doesn't leave Ukraine defenseless, but this would give Russia something to hang its hat on and call a win. If the talk is about realpolitik, why not keep the screws on Russia and see what happens? If it's about morality, why reward aggression?
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Mar 7, 2022 13:40
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Concerned Citizen has posted pretty much this exact posting repeatedly and incessantly from the first day of this war, claiming Ukraine is just simply too stubborn to make a deal, and that they should acquiesce to whatever Putin wants.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:40
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Concerned Citizen posted:With no demilitarization clause, Ukraine retains a hefty deterrent for further war. Russia is not gonna jump back into conflict after being humiliated. It doesn't leave Ukraine defenseless, but this would give Russia something to hang its hat on and call a win. Ah yes, because Russia has honored all the ceasefires they've offered so far. Also they're stating that they want all of this ALONG WITH Ukraine's surrender. They will not go easy on a Ukraine that surrenders. They haven't even gone easy in the now formerly pro-Russian territories of Ukraine. You keep accusing us of making them fight, but they're the ones who do not wish to surrender. If they want to surrender, they can, but if they don't, then they should not.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:41
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"Hahaha no of course these civilians wouldn't be hostages! Why would you think that?" https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1500812280170168324?s=20&t=TrEN7A1DtDWo7YH8MFAMUQ
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Mar 7, 2022 13:41
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If they were to accept, that's not a peace agreement, that's a ceasefire for a few years at most.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:42
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Fame Douglas posted:The status quo, but with tons of destroyed infrastructure and a much worse future outlook. Russia isn't exactly fighting a clean war here. And an official end to the territorial disputes which underpin the western sanctions. I don't think those terms would be bad for Russia at all.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:42
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Do you really think the Ukrainians are going to vote in favor of such a proposal? I would suspect yes, they would. People tend to not like being invaded and there are alternative structures to defend Ukraine. Like, Finland isn't a member but also is a close ally and very integrated with NATO. We don't know what the timeline is, presumably Russia can also read the Ukrainian constitution and understands what the legal process is if they're asking for it to be changed rather than ripping it up.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:42
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Xachariah posted:What's this dead guy people are talking about? One of their negotiating team was killed in unclear circumstances.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:43
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Concerned Citizen posted:The alternative to a peace deal is mass death from urban fighting in Kyiv and generational destruction for Ukraine. You guys basically want to reject literally any peace deal. Russia isn't going home empty-handed, they just offered a deal that leaves Ukraine in basically the exact same spot it was in prior to the war. This is a good thing. Russia's "peace deal" is coming back 5 years later to take more territory, with an even more neutered Ukraine Russia CAN go home empty handed because they are the only remotely belligerent party here and can gently caress the hell off. Like yeah I would have told Hitler to go the gently caress home empty-handed from the Sudatenland as well. But again, Ukraine's decision to make
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Mar 7, 2022 13:43
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Concerned Citizen posted:We don't know what the timeline is, presumably Russia can also read the Ukrainian constitution and understands what the legal process is if they're asking for it to be changed rather than ripping it up. Noted respector of legal norms, Russian Federation
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Mar 7, 2022 13:43
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Kchama posted:Ah yes, because Russia has honored all the ceasefires they've offered so far. Also they're stating that they want all of this ALONG WITH Ukraine's surrender. They will not go easy on a Ukraine that surrenders. They haven't even gone easy in the now formerly pro-Russian territories of Ukraine. You keep accusing us of making them fight, but they're the ones who do not wish to surrender. If they want to surrender, they can, but if they don't, then they should not. Correct. We do not decide for Ukraine what it will and will not accept. They are the ones invaded by a foreign power that wants to carve off pieces of the territory of Ukraine for themselves. Honestly? My take is this communicates desperation on the part of Putin of Russian demands have really changed. From a strategic perspective I think it’s best to let it go for another week or so then reassess; however, that’s a difficult call because a lot more people will die in the process. Again though, that’s a decision for the government of Ukraine and not you, me, or the West to make.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:45
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Concerned Citizen posted:I would suspect yes, they would. People tend to not like being invaded and there are alternative structures to defend Ukraine. Like, Finland isn't a member but also is a close ally and very integrated with NATO. I would suspect that the fact that people tend to not like being invaded is why Ukraine is not so keen on giving Russia everything they want. They've seen what happens when they give Russia what they want.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:45
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Xachariah posted:What's this dead guy people are talking about? Ukraine first announced they had killed one of their negotiators when he resisted arrest, claiming he was a traitor. Then a bit later they announced he was a hero and had been killed by Russian saboteurs. Nobody really knows what the gently caress is going on, but he's dead.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:45
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Fame Douglas posted:Concerned Citizen has posted pretty much this exact posting repeatedly and incessantly from the first day of this war, claiming Ukraine is just simply too stubborn to make a deal, and that they should acquiesce to whatever Putin wants. Why bother attacking a straw man? What's the point of going after an argument no one made? Russia declared war for maximalist objectives, to turn Ukraine into a pro-Russia entity. Ukraine could obviously never agree to that. But this is new stuff, it seems like pretty good progress and they would be foolish to turn down this deal, this one deal that was never on the table before.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:45
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This seems like a bit of a shift for Orban. Hungary has been allowing Ukrainians to evacuate via their territory but this seems like a slight escalation from that. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1500812320884277250?s=20&t=TrEN7A1DtDWo7YH8MFAMUQ Still not allowing weapons shipments to Ukraine via Hungary.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:46
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Do you really think the Ukrainians are going to vote in favor of such a proposal? Honestly, yes. Crimea is full of russians and the Donbass is poor as dirt. They might not get in Nato or UE but they could reap the benefits of a mini marshall plan. And a constitutional change made under duress is worthless. This being a post truth world they could just say "LOL PWNED" and ally with Nato whenever they please. Tafferling fucked around with this message at 13:48 on Mar 7, 2022 |
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Mar 7, 2022 13:46
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I'm not an expert in international relations but it seems like the only reason you don't want someone to join a defensive alliance would be because you plan to invade them. Ukraine would be foolish to agree to neutrality.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:46
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https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500812687009267712 https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500728148996018176
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Mar 7, 2022 13:46
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Xachariah posted:What's this dead guy people are talking about? A member of Ukrainian negotiations team died two days ago. Initially it was claimed that he was a Russian mole shot by Ukrainian FBI, but later Ukrainian CIA released a statement that he was their employee, and died in line of duty.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:47
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Tuxedo Gin posted:I'm not an expert in international relations but it seems like the only reason you don't want someone to join a defensive alliance would be because you plan to invade them. Ukraine would be foolish to agree to neutrality. Whoa, buddy, you can't use that Realism, only one possible interpretation of actions can come from Realism.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:48
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Concerned Citizen posted:Why bother attacking a straw man? What's the point of going after an argument no one made? Russia declared war for maximalist objectives, to turn Ukraine into a pro-Russia entity. Ukraine could obviously never agree to that. But this is new stuff, it seems like pretty good progress and they would be foolish to turn down this deal, this one deal that was never on the table before. What new stuff? There's no new stuff. And no, you repeating your same tired talking point for almost two weeks isn't "attacking a strawman"
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Mar 7, 2022 13:48
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Concerned Citizen posted:Why bother attacking a straw man? What's the point of going after an argument no one made? Russia declared war for maximalist objectives, to turn Ukraine into a pro-Russia entity. Ukraine could obviously never agree to that. But this is new stuff, it seems like pretty good progress and they would be foolish to turn down this deal, this one deal that was never on the table before. "New stuff" in that this was actually part of their demands leading up to their invasion. They want the same stuff. And again, why do you trust them? And according to reports, they also want a Russian stooge to actually be in charge of Ukraine. So... they want them to be a pro-Russia entity. Still.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:48
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Tuxedo Gin posted:I'm not an expert in international relations but it seems like the only reason you don't want someone to join a defensive alliance would be because you plan to invade them. Ukraine would be foolish to agree to neutrality. The issue is if Ukraine joins NATO then NATO can station weapons much closer to Russia. Russia also probably plans on invading them again or whatever, but the request does have a rational basis outside of Putin's psychotic behaviour.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:49
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cinci zoo sniper posted:A member of Ukrainian negotiations team died two days ago. Initially it was claimed that he was a Russian mole shot by Ukrainian FBI, but later Ukrainian CIA released a statement that he was their employee, and died in line of duty. I wouldnt be surprised to see him alive today in the repeat of the ridiculous Babchenko affair few years ago
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Mar 7, 2022 13:49
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https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1500814528514306054?s=20&t=YjLcq8-N0tjS8AjWxrK5og
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Mar 7, 2022 13:49
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the popes toes posted:No, not creepy at all. And why are you saying "reminiscent"? To be fair to that guy... he looks like a kid. Is he even 20? His coaches and the Russian sports functionaries probably have a huge influence over him, it might not even have been his decision to wear that Z. Of course maybe he's a tool, that's always a possibility, too. But the Russian/Soviet sports teams have always been part of their propaganda apparatuses, so I wouldn't at all be surprised to see many more professional Russian athletes wearing the Z. As an aside, a guy this young looking with these arms looks really strange/creepy.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:49
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Tuxedo Gin posted:I'm not an expert in international relations but it seems like the only reason you don't want someone to join a defensive alliance would be because you plan to invade them. Ukraine would be foolish to agree to neutrality. Russia does not believe NATO is a defensive alliance. Again, I wonder whether they intend to try and block the EU entry as well. That would be much more difficult to agree to than NATO. In some hypothetical world where Russia invades again, Ukraine is even tougher to crack than it is today - Russia really has to win this time, coming back in a few years would be pointless.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:49
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Judging from the fact that this was set up while the current 'negotiations' are still ongoing it doesn't seem like Russia is expecting Ukraine to take the deal they're offering at the moment either https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1500810822855106561?s=20&t=TrEN7A1DtDWo7YH8MFAMUQ Article corroborating: https://www.aa.com.tr/fr/monde/diplomatie-une-r%C3%A9union-tripartite-turquie-russie-ukraine-jeudi-%C3%A0-antalya-/2526477
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Mar 7, 2022 13:50
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FishMcCool posted:https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1500786876172713986 Lol absolutely not, China doesn't want Taiwan and state mentioned in the same sentence by any country regardless of context. Edit. Unless the sentence is "Taiwan is absolutely not a state and totally just a bit of China."
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Mar 7, 2022 13:51
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Concerned Citizen posted:Russia does not believe NATO is a defensive alliance. Again, I wonder whether they intend to try and block the EU entry as well. That would be much more difficult to agree to than NATO. In some hypothetical world where Russia invades again, Ukraine is even tougher to crack than it is today - Russia really has to win this time, coming back in a few years would be pointless. Why do you keep repeating this claim? Russia very obviously doesn't believe NATO to be an offensive alliance at all, otherwise they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine for fear of military repercussion. What better excuse for NATO turning into an offensive force would there be but Russia starting a war of aggression. This is just a talking point, not any kind of actual worry Putin has.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:52
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Concerned Citizen posted:I would suspect yes, they would. People tend to not like being invaded and there are alternative structures to defend Ukraine. Like, Finland isn't a member but also is a close ally and very integrated with NATO. Historically, terror bombing and invasion make people angry, not acquiescent. The Blitz didn't make people want to surrender to Germany, the invasion of Iraq didn't make the Taliban less popular, hell Britain is not exactly Hella popular in India.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:52
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Ola posted:I can hear the photographer now. "C'mon work it Macron, look even sadder. Think about your grandma getting served cold onion soup on her birthday, or a corked Chateau Margeaux, you got this." Reminder that Macron spent 4-6 hours listening to Putin's unhinged alternate history rants about Russia's historical grievances That face is 100% real
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Mar 7, 2022 13:52
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Kchama posted:"New stuff" in that this was actually part of their demands leading up to their invasion. They want the same stuff. And again, why do you trust them? And according to reports, they also want a Russian stooge to actually be in charge of Ukraine. So... they want them to be a pro-Russia entity. Still. I mean, they dropped the demands for denazification and demilitarization in that tweet, so again, IF THAT IS ACCURATE, they have lowered their demands and that is a good thing. It means a deal is possible. Literally no peace deal has ever been reached by two warring powers that trusted each other. Luckily, the only thing Ukraine needs is for Russia to exit the country and nothing else. This isn't a "victory or death" scenario here, Ukraine isn't going to rout Russia off the field. Both sides need a deal.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:53
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Xachariah posted:What's this dead guy people are talking about? Denis Kireyev, negotiator who was on the peace talks team for Ukraine. Ukrainian propaganda outlets (sourced by parliament member Alexander Dubinsky) alleged that he was a Russian double-agent and was killed for state treason, then that he was resisting arrest, then other Ukrainian sources claimed that he was actually a GUR operative, who died on special assignment. Plenty of red meat for groups to assume he was either Jayms Bondisky, Alec Trevelyan, or a diplomat who was too soft on Russia and punished for it.
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