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Asproigerosis
Mar 13, 2013

insufferable
Actually at any given moment in time there are genuine cancer cells in your body. It's just that they end up getting properly dunked on by your body's apoptosis machine or they kill themselves or just don't do anything and die off. I think a big problem is that everyone envisions infections as some sort of ice nine strange matter poo poo where just a single viron getting in means it's all ogre. That's not how biology works.

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Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

T-Paine posted:

wait are people even here doing the "it doesn't protect 100% of the time, therefore useless" thing? gently caress

Nah.

They can reduce your exposure by factors of hundreds or thousands. This easily brings the true risk of COVID at the zoo to less than the risk of a fatal car crash on the way there.

I do all kinds of unnecessary stuff in my respirator, like foregoing curbside pickup to get good produce or visiting museums.

Respirators are great, but let’s not make up myths about them.

Zerg Mans
Oct 19, 2006

I only wear respirators made of 3 angstrom zeolite molecular sieves. Jokes on you, if water can't penetrate it than neither can droplets.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Asproigerosis posted:

Actually at any given moment in time there are genuine cancer cells in your body. It's just that they end up getting properly dunked on by your body's apoptosis machine or they kill themselves or just don't do anything and die off. I think a big problem is that everyone envisions infections as some sort of ice nine strange matter poo poo where just a single viron getting in means it's all ogre. That's not how biology works.

The single‐hit hypothesis is biologically plausible.

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

zegermans posted:

they release positrons, not ionizing radiation.

im not a science man but I think if a positron hits an electron it's gonna mess up that atom

BIG-DICK-BUTT-FUCK
Jan 26, 2016

by Fluffdaddy

kreeningsons posted:

this is kinda where I’m at and if someone can explain to me how the small but in my opinion not insignificant number of extremely disciplined respirator crew posters managed to get covid, and how to prevent that for myself besides avoiding unnecessary social interaction, then sure I’ll loving live it up in my P100

them getting exposed via fomite is more likely than it penetrating their well fitting respirator

Tulip
Jun 3, 2008

yeah thats pretty good


T-Paine posted:

wait are people even here doing the "it doesn't protect 100% of the time, therefore useless" thing? gently caress

i'm not seeing any posts suggesting that

i'm seeing posts that suggest that some other posts are suggesting that, but not seeing posts suggesting that

Zerg Mans
Oct 19, 2006

Rutibex posted:

im not a science man but I think if a positron hits an electron it's gonna mess up that atom

neither of those are real depending on the speed

Zerg Mans
Oct 19, 2006

hrm a quick wiki perusal indicates I'm completely wrong, which is possibly a first

Iron Crowned
May 6, 2003

by Hand Knit
Respirators make it so that COVID has to roll two natural 20's to get in.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

kreeningsons posted:

this is kinda where I’m at and if someone can explain to me how the small but in my opinion not insignificant number of extremely disciplined respirator crew posters managed to get covid, and how to prevent that for myself besides avoiding unnecessary social interaction, then sure I’ll loving live it up in my P100

They probably didn’t get infected through their respirators. It’s physically possible, but even with the numbers of respiratory crew present here, more likely than not, it’s not actually happened to any of us.

Maybe they got gotten by fomites or while outside and unmasked or in their own cars or drifting in an open window. These are all very unlikely, but so is respirator penetration leading to infection.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Pingui posted:

While you can gently caress in a respirator, you really can't suck.

didn’t the mass effect people figure this out

T-Paine
Dec 12, 2007

Sitting in the Costco food court unmasked, Bible in hand, reading my favorite Psalms to my five children: Abel, Bethany, Carlos, Carlos, and Carlos.

Platystemon posted:

Nah.

They can reduce your exposure by factors of hundreds or thousands. This easily brings the true risk of COVID at the zoo to less than the risk of a fatal car crash on the way there.

I do all kinds of unnecessary stuff in my respirator, like foregoing curbside pickup to get good produce or visiting museums.

Respirators are great, but let’s not make up myths about them.

I must have worded that post poorly because I agree with all this, I've heard too many times irl that "masking doesn't do anything anyway" by the worst people

Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug
Leonardi is tweeting about BA2 causing another wave. Hackles status: raising.

I was still in wait and see mode w/ Pillowpants’ data and people like the @Gab_H_R account going on about it.

@DrEricDing tweeted about the rising prevalence of BA2, that it’s “not good”, that it has wrecked hong kong and increased hospitalizations in england. But he stopped short of saying there will be a wave.

I am listing the account names for whoever wanted accounts to follow. Others that are good:

@wsbgnl
@DGlaucomflecken
@EricTopol
@yaneerbaryam
@jmcrookston
@COVIDnewsfast

Asproigerosis
Mar 13, 2013

insufferable
I wouldn't be surprised if the respirator cavers that got covid either put themselves in incredibly dangerous situations out of hubris and/or were frauds that talked big game about their nerdsecureclicks but were still loving and sucking or had roommates/spouses/etc that were living biden and obviously weren't wearing elastomer 24/7.

The notion that elastomer babies got covid because they were in sheetz with another human being at some point does not square with say how I've gone the whole pandemic so far scanning actual peak virility acute dying covid patients with several occasions where I only had a surgical mask as they breathed in my face without any mask and have still not had covid (claims void if I happened to have an asymptomatic case at some point).

It is almost certain the 3M cosplayers that got covid hosed up at some point where the respirator was not a relevant factor anyway (ie their immoral interpersonal relationships)

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Platystemon posted:

They probably didn’t get infected through their respirators. It’s physically possible, but even with the numbers of respiratory crew present here, more likely than not, it’s not actually happened to any of us.

Maybe they got gotten by fomites or while outside and unmasked or in their own cars or drifting in an open window. These are all very unlikely, but so is respirator penetration leading to infection.

i still think its more likely they got fake filters from amazon than their filters didnt work

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster

Pingui posted:

While you can gently caress in a respirator, you really can't suck.

[COVID]

Asproigerosis
Mar 13, 2013

insufferable

Platystemon posted:

The single‐hit hypothesis is biologically plausible.

Yeah but so is the instantaneous creation of a black hole.

kreeningsons
Jan 2, 2007

for the record I do trust my respirator to reduce my risk of infection by hundreds or thousands and that’s why I don’t leave the house without it

Kylaer
Aug 4, 2007
I'm SURE walking around in a respirator at all times in an (even more) OPEN BIDENing society is definitely not a recipe for disaster and anyone that's not cool with getting harassed by CHUDs are cave dwellers. I've got good brain!

Rutibex posted:

you could move to china

Last I remember reading was that they don't allow permanent residents or naturalized citizens.

Platystemon posted:

Nah.

They can reduce your exposure by factors of hundreds or thousands. This easily brings the true risk of COVID at the zoo to less than the risk of a fatal car crash on the way there.

I do all kinds of unnecessary stuff in my respirator, like foregoing curbside pickup to get good produce or visiting museums.

Respirators are great, but let’s not make up myths about them.

Fair enough, I'll say ~0% instead of 0% in the future. I guess anything is possible. Never happened in 25 years at that Texas tuberculosis hospital though, so those are odds I'm comfortable with.

Gwyneth Palpate
Jun 7, 2010

Do you want your breadcrumbs highlighted?

~SMcD

Gotta layer your protections. Get vaccinated, wear the cave-adaptation dwarf mask, limit exposure.

Asproigerosis
Mar 13, 2013

insufferable
If anyone wants to hear either hopeful news or truly doomer news, right now in my hospital covid is at a post alpha low in cases. It's not a testing thing, as they haven't quite given up wasting money testing everyone that comes in the ED. So we're in for the most open biden spring since trump wasn't cheated out of his reelection.

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


Nocturtle posted:

Repeating some of my recent posts and apologies for the length, but summarized recent PASC studies for my own understanding and thought my notes might be of interest here. Would appreciate if people could point to any large scale studies of PASC impacts I missed.

PASC overview
-PASC encompasses a range of conditions that might occur after a COVID infection
-conditions include cardiovascular, neurological and immune disorders
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2021.698169/full
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/02/19/science/long-covid-causes.html
-several large scale studies and labor force analyses attempt to evaluate PASC rate, severity
-ignoring COVID-related mortality as it’s better understood, effectively reduced with vaccines

PASC rate estimates from major studies
-focus here on PASC rates for mild cases in <65 year olds where possible
-ideally account for vaccination impact, most large completed studies done pre-vaccine

Post-acute symptoms, new onset diagnoses and health problems 6 to 12 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection: a nationwide questionnaire study in the adult Danish population
-large scale study, 152880 participants, evaluated at 6-12 months, pre-vaccine availability
-long-term symptoms maximal for 30-60 year old
-”significant” post-infection symptoms:
-~40% risk of physical exhaustion, 35% risk of mental exhaustion
-~28% chance of memory and concentration issues
-~8% fatigue

Long COVID in a prospective cohort of home-isolated patients
-followed up 312 home-isolated (non-hospitalized) Norwegian patients from the early pandemic
-study found that 52% (32/61) of home-isolated young adults, aged 16–30 years, had symptoms at 6 months
-”significant” post-infection symptoms:
-impaired concentration (13%, 8/61)
-memory problems (11%, 7/61)
-fatigue (21%, 13/61)

Long-term cardiovascular outcomes of COVID-19
-157000 VA patients, predominantly older white males, with contemporary and historical control groups
-study period 2020-2021, pre-vaccine
-4.5% elevated risk of any cardiovascular outcome in entire cohort
-roughly 2.5% elevated risk of any cardiovascular outcome for mild cases

Six-month sequelae of post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection: a retrospective cohort study of 10,024 breakthrough infections
-10024 vaccinated individuals, 9479 matched against unvaccinated controls
-evaluated pre-Omicron
-two doses had no impact on “long-COVID” features, several other disorders
-this study might be more focused on evaluating difference in long-term outcomes between vaccinated vs unvaccinated and not so much the absolute rates
-”significant” post-infection symptom:
-60% outcome of long-COVID (any) by day 150, vaccinated or not (!?!?!?)
-cognitive symptoms 10% at 150 days, vaccinated or not
-fatigue 20% at 150 days, vaccinated or not

Indirect PASC impacts from labor statistics

Is ‘long Covid’ worsening the labor shortage?
-assumes ~100 million workers infected by Oct 2021
-roughly estimates ~1.1 million people out of work due to long COVID at any given time

COVID-19 Likely Resulted in 1.2 Million More Disabled People by the End of 2021
-additional 1.2 million people in the US civilian institutional population with a registered disability in 2021 compared to 2020
-total labor force without disability is down ~2 million since the start of the pandemic
-large increase in workers with disability likely due to PASC, ~1% of infected workers

Summary
-multiple PASC research studies suggests >10% chance of “significant” long-term impact from COVID infection, esp fatigue and cognitive symptoms (estimates vary around 10-20%)
-additional risk of cardiovascular disease after mild infection is ~2.5%
-vaccines did not protect against all PASC conditions (estimates vary between 50% reduction to no effect, depending on the condition)
-vaccine protection has likely not improved with Omicron dominant given lower protection against symptomatic infection
-labor statistics suggest >1% of infected workers either disabled or too sick to continue working at least temporarily
-current overall picture is >1%-10% of COVID infections result in “significant” long term impacts, with large uncertainties in actual rates but these are likely lower bounds

Outstanding Questions/TBD
-is seriosu PASC post-COVID infection a ~1% or a ~10% outcome? PASC and labor statistic studies disagree
-is risk of PASC cumulative with reinfection? Likely yes, given PASC likely arise from factors associated with symptomatic infection
-are reinfections likely? Likely yes, given short vaccine induced neutralizing antibody lifetime and continued viral evolution
-how do PASC risks compare with other common risks? Likely significantly worse for people getting regularly infected (teachers, HCWs, parents with children in school)
-are there long term prospects for improved treatments and reduction of risks? ????
go outside

Covok
May 27, 2013

Yet where is that woman now? Tell me, in what heave does she reside? None of them. Because no God bothered to listen or care. If that is what you think it means to be a God, then you and all your teachings are welcome to do as that poor women did. And vanish from these realms forever.
Didn't a lot of respirator crew say here that their job demanded they return to work, their loved ones were antivax, or something to the sort? Like, I remember one respirator crew member lamenting their kid's mom was refusing to let their son get vaxxed. I feel these factors probably had a lot to do with their infections.

Heck, my roommates refused to not go over to their families for Christmas this year and only told me weeks later that one of the people there was literally openly sick and coughing with a running nose yet constantly ensuring them it wasn't COVID. Like, that and my job refusing to allow for WFH didn't help. Though, I only got infected back in 3/2020 before we knew it was on the Island. Well, known infection, I suppose.

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Covok posted:

Didn't a lot of respirator crew say here that their job demanded they return to work, their loved ones were antivax, or something to the sort? Like, I remember one respirator crew member lamenting their kid's mom was refusing to let their son get vaxxed. I feel these factors probably had a lot to do with their infections.

Heck, my roommates refused to not go over to their families for Christmas this year and only told me weeks later that one of the people there was literally openly sick and coughing with a running nose yet constantly ensuring them it wasn't COVID. Like, that and my job refusing to allow for WFH didn't help. Though, I only got infected back in 3/2020 before we knew it was on the Island. Well, known infection, I suppose.

there are two diseases going around, covid and the brain-worms. you must avoid people carrying both to survive

Asproigerosis
Mar 13, 2013

insufferable

Covok posted:

Didn't a lot of respirator crew say here that their job demanded they return to work, their loved ones were antivax, or something to the sort? Like, I remember one respirator crew member lamenting their kid's mom was refusing to let their son get vaxxed. I feel these factors probably had a lot to do with their infections.

Heck, my roommates refused to not go over to their families for Christmas this year and only told me weeks later that one of the people there was literally openly sick and coughing with a running nose yet constantly ensuring them it wasn't COVID. Like, that and my job refusing to allow for WFH didn't help. Though, I only got infected back in 3/2020 before we knew it was on the Island. Well, known infection, I suppose.

Yeah it's going to always be this stuff, where the fake crew swear up and down they were perfect in protection at all times and it was their respirator that failed them but also that Christmas dinner where cousin was headcold. In fact, it seems like all of these people were rightfully punished by the elastomer gods for not adhering to the Holy scripture of always trust your respirator and even the BLASPHEMY of saying it was the respirator that failed them! No, it was you that was found wanting.

Rescue Toaster
Mar 13, 2003
The way I try to look at it as someone who is on the high end of careful (and the high end of risk) by this thread's standards:
A) There are millions and millions of people being less careful or way the gently caress less careful or way the gently caress more exposed than you who haven't caught it.
B) There are plenty of people being even more careful than you who have.

Yeah those same unlucky chances that caught them might get you. Your PPE might be defective or not fit properly one time, fomite or ocular introduction might be more common than we think since it's really not testable in the wild, someone you live with might gently caress up because they're slightly less careful than you, you might have a medical procedure that makes wearing PPE the entire time impossible. You cannot control or eliminate all those risks, so eliminating the ones you CAN keeps the odds in your favor as much as possible for as long as possible.

I've been in that same headspace a lot, not "Oh masks aren't perfect so why bother." but the "This is going to go on for the next decade how could I possibly avoid it the entire time no matter what I do." So for now I choose the fact that there's a certain unavoidable/unpredictable risk doesn't mean do nothing it means do everything else. At least holding out until either I get a bad dice roll or the situation changes enough that relaxing about it is reasonable.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Asproigerosis posted:

If anyone wants to hear either hopeful news or truly doomer news, right now in my hospital covid is at a post alpha low in cases. It's not a testing thing, as they haven't quite given up wasting money testing everyone that comes in the ED. So we're in for the most open biden spring since trump wasn't cheated out of his reelection.

Sounds like a great time to ramp up mitigations and stamp out this virus for good! Assume that's precisely what our evidence-based CDC is recommending.

Sorry, turns out they recommend maximizing exposure when hospital cases are low. My mistake!

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

oh, hey. half of americans having brain damage from leaded gasoline is pnas official now. i couldn’t sleep last night after reading this.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2118631119

Half of US population exposed to adverse lead levels in early childhood

The average lead-linked loss in cognitive ability was 2.6 IQ points per person as of 2015. This amounted to a total loss of 824,097,690 IQ points, disproportionately endured by those born between 1951 and 1980.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Ok, so Despite Tuesday being deemed the "10% of hospitals just dont report anything COVID day"

https://twitter.com/patricklsimpson/status/1501186435814023168?s=20&t=0GVrtOUOz4-bKKwpRAch5w

In terms of overall hospitalizations, despite 500 less hospitals and 42000 less hospitalizations nationwide, increases were still happen in NM, MD/DE, LA, RI/VT
https://twitter.com/patricklsimpson/status/1501186435814023168?s=20&t=0GVrtOUOz4-bKKwpRAch5w

In terms of COVID Hospitalizations, same Caveat

https://twitter.com/patricklsimpson/status/1501198435847864320?s=20&t=0GVrtOUOz4-bKKwpRAch5w

Tomorrow will have a better picture - with the Nowcast BA.2 update later today and Wednesday being the best hospital reporting day.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Asproigerosis posted:

Yeah but so is the instantaneous creation of a black hole.

A black hole is pretty much where biology stops being biology and starts being physics.

Anyway, I will say that I think the single‐hit model is most plausible for viral infections of naive hosts. When bacteria (like TB) or serum antibodies become involved, yeah, it probably breaks down.

When neutralizing antibodies are present, even at low concentration, there may be a sort of reciprocity failure. Getting hit with a thousand virions all at once is probably worse than getting one per day for three years.

That’s just my opinion, though. If we had solid evidence for one model or another, they wouldn’t all be hypotheses still.

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Rauros posted:

oh, hey. half of americans having brain damage from leaded gasoline is pnas official now. i couldn’t sleep last night after reading this.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2118631119

Half of US population exposed to adverse lead levels in early childhood

The average lead-linked loss in cognitive ability was 2.6 IQ points per person as of 2015. This amounted to a total loss of 824,097,690 IQ points, disproportionately endured by those born between 1951 and 1980.

:ohdear:
no wonder the boomers are so dumb. this explains our entire society

Loucks
May 21, 2007

I’m perfectly chill. Perfectly chill. The most innocuous comment set you off, not me. People are shockingly stupid, except for me. If that upsets you please shut the fuck up.

Asproigerosis posted:

In fact, it seems like all of these people were rightfully punished by the elastomer gods for not adhering to the Holy scripture of always trust your respirator and even the BLASPHEMY of saying it was the respirator that failed them! No, it was you that was found wanting.

Respirators cannot fail, they can only be failed. But for real and not as a bit.

Now to oil and brush my long, luxuriant goonbeard.

Mr. Pizza
Oct 5, 2009


Asproigerosis posted:

I wouldn't be surprised if the respirator cavers that got covid either put themselves in incredibly dangerous situations out of hubris and/or were frauds that talked big game about their nerdsecureclicks but were still loving and sucking or had roommates/spouses/etc that were living biden and obviously weren't wearing elastomer 24/7.

The notion that elastomer babies got covid because they were in sheetz with another human being at some point does not square with say how I've gone the whole pandemic so far scanning actual peak virility acute dying covid patients with several occasions where I only had a surgical mask as they breathed in my face without any mask and have still not had covid (claims void if I happened to have an asymptomatic case at some point).

It is almost certain the 3M cosplayers that got covid hosed up at some point where the respirator was not a relevant factor anyway (ie their immoral interpersonal relationships)

you've been micro dosiong, keeping your immunity system strong

Mr. Pizza
Oct 5, 2009


you can't see a virus

Iron Crowned
May 6, 2003

by Hand Knit

Loucks posted:

Respirators cannot fail, they can only be failed. But for real and not as a bit.

Now to oil and brush my long, luxuriant goonbeard.

:lol:

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003


Rauros posted:

oh, hey. half of americans having brain damage from leaded gasoline is pnas official now. i couldn’t sleep last night after reading this.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2118631119

Half of US population exposed to adverse lead levels in early childhood

The average lead-linked loss in cognitive ability was 2.6 IQ points per person as of 2015. This amounted to a total loss of 824,097,690 IQ points, disproportionately endured by those born between 1951 and 1980.

It was well known when leaded gasoline was invented that lead was extremely toxic, too, so the guy who invented it went through all sorts of lengths to disassociate from that, including calling it "ethyl gasoline" and doing a bit where he poured a bunch on his hands to prove it was safe (and then got a bunch of chelation therapy).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Midgley_Jr.

We've always been a country of utter bastards.

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

It was well known when leaded gasoline was invented that lead was extremely toxic, too, so the guy who invented it went through all sorts of lengths to disassociate from that, including calling it "ethyl gasoline" and doing a bit where he poured a bunch on his hands to prove it was safe (and then got a bunch of chelation therapy).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Midgley_Jr.

We've always been a country of utter bastards.

his death is the best

T-Paine
Dec 12, 2007

Sitting in the Costco food court unmasked, Bible in hand, reading my favorite Psalms to my five children: Abel, Bethany, Carlos, Carlos, and Carlos.

Radirot posted:

his death is the best

lol I forgot about that "In 1940, at the age of 51, Midgley contracted polio, which left him severely disabled. He devised an elaborate system of ropes and pulleys to lift himself out of bed. In 1944, he became entangled in the device and died of strangulation."

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NeonPunk
Dec 21, 2020

https://mobile.twitter.com/EnemyInAState/status/1500951689351909383

Hmm, not sure of the verifications of this tweet. I thought Covid was over

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