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I'm aware that Germans made a Faustian deal over the past 30 years on their home heating, but like, put on a loving coat? It's March and most of the country won't go below freezing for the rest of the year. This is a better reason to be soft than Italians wanting to keep selling Gucci bags, but only barely. There are other sources of gas.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:33
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Chalks posted:It'll only buy a limited amount of time, but Germany basically saying "we can't do that, it'll ruin our economy" is so dumb I don't know what they expected. The problem is that it's obvious to everyone, including Russia, that this is the case.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:34
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CommieGIR posted:https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1501263231947612162?s=20&t=twe1L13mJ3TmCAOx3ZFdTQ Oh man, I hope Putin really does cut off the gas completely. That way it will be literally his fault that Europe suffers from a lack of gas; he will not get the money; and it will (even more) incentivise getting rid of the current gas dependency in Europe. Hopefully it would help our politicians channel the backlash from all the gas price suffering straight to Putin where it belongs. As a Finn: loving loving gently caress  So now we have Hitler 2.0, ok what's the verdict Sweden? "Well we thought about it for two days and decided to do literally nothing." Great, thank you so much I do hope that literally every other party and voter in Sweden is pro-NATO though... but it doesn't seem likely, given that this is the prime minister. Hmmh. I really would have liked this old stereotype of Swedes (warning: somewhat impolite) to be proven incorrect
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Mar 8, 2022 20:34
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Pook Good Mook posted:I'm aware that Germans made a Faustian deal over the past 30 years on their home heating, but like, put on a loving coat? It's March and most of the country won't go below freezing for the rest of the year. This is a better reason to be soft than Italians wanting to keep selling Gucci bags, but only barely.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:34
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Nessus posted:Sure, but what I have read makes it sounds like it was almost more of a deliberate pivot to become economically dependent on Russian gas supplies. Not just "it's the best of a bad choice set." So Germany has a theory of economic dependence as foreign policy that probably is too involved to really get into in this thread, but broadly can be seen as "If we're all deeply connected financially then political problems will have to be resolved diplomatically". With that in mind, they've been intentionally creating a system similar to the American policy of economic engagement with China, where we have become so deeply involved that it would be very difficult to separate our economies. Sort of a peace through mutually assured stock market destruction. But the United States in particular and Europeans generally have been vehemently objecting to this project for decades, specifically because they saw it as too unstable.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:35
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Pook Good Mook posted:I'm aware that Germans made a Faustian deal over the past 30 years on their home heating, but like, put on a loving coat? It's March and most of the country won't go below freezing for the rest of the year. This is a better reason to be soft than Italians wanting to keep selling Gucci bags, but only barely. That's an extremely good way of not getting re-elected for a generation.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:35
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Morrow posted:The thing is, China is asking themselves if Russia is worth having as a junior partner/client/vassal right now, because China wants to take over the global system, not get frozen out of it. I'm also not sure China would trust Russia to be an obedient client state. I know Dugin isn't the chief ideologist that many make him out to be, but even as a partial echo, China must be somewhat unhappy at reading Dugin's thoughts on how Russia should eventually annex Tibet, Mongolia (Inner and Outer) and 'dismantle' China. Russia, with current leadership and territory, makes for a horribly unruly and untrustworthy client. I think China would prefer an strong, indebted, stable ally over weak, dependent, volatile client. My gut feeling is still that China has Russia's back in public, but are planning contingencies if Russia breaks itself on Ukraine. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up turning their backs on Putin somehow. I expect they'll try to drive a wedge between Europe and the US somehow, by offering Europe to fix the problem, but only if the US isn't part of the solution. Something like making the EU the preferred framework for security and stability in Eastern Europe.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:35
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Nessus posted:They also regularly take the engines off and reattach them, don't they? So in that case the airframe would make sense as the thing to track. Exactly, planes are tracked by the airframe via tail number which is a unique serial number. If you look at the equipment loss trackers, they talk about tail numbers quite a bit.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:35
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https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1501279796671782916 another source, and note that the products to be covered will be determined by the government: again, this is a threat they might do it in the future not actually doing it
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Mar 8, 2022 20:35
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Nessus posted:Do they have some degree of stored-up gas, at least? Or has it all or mostly been just-in-time supply from Russia? They do but the stores were low before this kicked off.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:36
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PederP posted:They still have their F-16s. And the entire NATO's air forces.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:36
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Nessus posted:Do they have some degree of stored-up gas, at least? Or has it all or mostly been just-in-time supply from Russia? europe has large amounts of gas storage facilities but russia purposefully failed to fill europe's gas storage to required levels this winter in order to maximize energy pressure.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:36
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TheRat posted:The problem is that it's obvious to everyone, including Russia, that this is the case. Well they're going to have to make it work now! It's all about how much pain Germany is willing to take and how easily they think they can cushion the blow. Russia might be pretty sure it'd be really bad but a good bluff could very easily give them pause. Every day they don't cut the supply is important here if you know it is going to happen eventually. There's no benefit to anyone in Germany admitting how vulnerable they are to Russia doing this. Just bluff! Worst case is Russia does this exact thing, but hopefully it at least buys you some more time.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:38
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CommieGIR posted:Germany, as of this immediate second, gets 16% of its overall electricity from Natural Gas. 10.4Gw. That is not a small amount and you are being misleading. Your claim was that gas replaced a lot of nuclear. That is false. Gas took up some of the slack from a reduction in coal and nuclear at the same time, but not by much. Kaal posted:Yup. Hopefully they turn on some of their recently deactivated nuclear plants too. Ultimately it’s going to be fine, just disruptive. Germany is paying a price for Merkel’s decision to become so dependent on Russian fossil fuels. Not how nuclear plants work. And don't let the CDU off the hook like that. The party literally destroyed tens of thousands of jobs in renewables and renewable R&D on purpose. They actively hindered insulation efforts. That's not just Merkel, that's the entire party.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:39
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:europe has large amounts of gas storage facilities but russia purposefully failed to fill europe's gas storage to required levels this winter in order to maximize energy pressure. Right. The entire European "gas crisis" was kicked off by Russia shutting down fuel supplies in response to European pushback on the NordStream 2 pipeline that would have subjected it to their carbon tax regulations. Germany is estimated to have around six months of energy available.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:40
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Pook Good Mook posted:I'm aware that Germans made a Faustian deal over the past 30 years on their home heating, but like, put on a loving coat? It's March and most of the country won't go below freezing for the rest of the year. This is a better reason to be soft than Italians wanting to keep selling Gucci bags, but only barely. Yeah, for all this thread has been talking about nuclear and renewables, and those are both great don't get me wrong, it seems like the key here for Europe in the short term is conservation, not alternatives. Launch a big government program to get people to turn the thermostat down, conserve power, and carpool to work. That sort of thing used to happen all the time, and you've got ready made messaging because the whole world is watching Russia turn Saturday morning cartoon villain, and now it's not even the sanctions at fault, it's specifically Putin cutting off the supply. Obviously conservation can't cut things down to nothing, but not all of Germany's gas/oil/etc is from Russia. Cutting demand would be a huge help here. And to be fair, I'm not even being specific to Europe here. It would be nice if the US and other countries used this as an opportunity to start pushing conservation measures, too. If we sanction Russian oil countries that won't participate in the sanctions will just buy it cheap, so reducing the global demand for oil as much as possible seems like the smart play. Nenonen posted:And the entire NATO's air forces. And a lot of NATO's ground forces, since I believe they've been shifting them into Poland since the invasion started. Bremen fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Mar 8, 2022 |
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Mar 8, 2022 20:40
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Pook Good Mook posted:I'm aware that Germans made a Faustian deal over the past 30 years on their home heating, but like, put on a loving coat? It's March and most of the country won't go below freezing for the rest of the year. This is a better reason to be soft than Italians wanting to keep selling Gucci bags, but only barely. For real how many people need to die because you won’t sleep with socks on. Not to mention that we should be using less oil and gas anyway.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:41
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Pook Good Mook posted:I'm aware that Germans made a Faustian deal over the past 30 years on their home heating, but like, put on a loving coat? It's March and most of the country won't go below freezing for the rest of the year. Like obviously demand needs to go down but popsicle Oma is a political nonstarter here.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:41
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Nessus posted:Sure, but what I have read makes it sounds like it was almost more of a deliberate pivot to become economically dependent on Russian gas supplies. Not just "it's the best of a bad choice set." Let me introduce you to Gerhard Schröder, personal friend of Putin, board member of Gazprom, former German Chancellor and architect of the pivot to becoming 'Europe's hub for Russian gas distribution'. That man is more than a little responsible for what is going on in Ukraine right now - and not just as an unaware tool - he's profited personally from this. This is Putin's presidential inauguration - Schröder isn't a background figure: 
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Mar 8, 2022 20:41
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Kaal posted:So Germany has a theory of economic dependence as foreign policy that probably is too involved to really get into in this thread, but broadly can be seen as "If we're all deeply connected financially then political problems will have to be resolved diplomatically". With that in mind, they've been intentionally creating a system similar to the American policy of economic engagement with China, where we have become so deeply involved that it would be very difficult to separate our economies. Sort of a peace through mutually assured stock market destruction. But the United States in particular and Europeans generally have been vehemently objecting to this project for decades, specifically because they saw it as too unstable. So they've completely regressed to pre-World War One thinking?
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Mar 8, 2022 20:42
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:So they've completely regressed to pre-World War One thinking? I don't think Bismarck was that naive.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:44
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:So they've completely regressed to pre-World War One thinking? Yeah Germany literally being the case study twice in the 20thC for why 'A country that's economically dependent on trade with me would never declare war for ideological reasons' is bad thinking is something I've always found amusing about this foreign policy.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:44
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Oh speaking of loving Schröder:Tagesschau posted:Criminal charges have been filed against former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder for crimes against humanity. As reported by the "Badische Neuesten Nachrichten", the criminal complaint was received in Hanover last week and was forwarded to the Federal Prosecutor General in Karlsruhe on Monday. Note: "Criminal charges" is certainly a mistranslation by deepl, but I have no idea how to translate the concept of an "Anzeige" to English. "Report" perhaps? It's reported to the prosecutor, who is now required to decide on the merit. I doubt anything will happen, but seriously, gently caress this guy.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:45
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europe will be in the strange position of wartime rationing while not technically being at war.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:46
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PederP posted:[...] That goes without saying. However, at the current juncture, there just doesn't seem to be any path for Russia to become strong, stable, and not be a major diplomatic ball-and-chain for its allies anytime soon.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:47
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Antigravitas posted:Your claim was that gas replaced a lot of nuclear. That is false. Gas took up some of the slack from a reduction in coal and nuclear at the same time, but not by much. German closure of nuclear plants between 2011-2020 amounts to 60 TWh of lost energy production. They then shuttered a further 30 TWh in 2021, and want to finish off their last 30 TWh this year. Meanwhile their total gas electricity production is equivalent to 60 TWh. quote:Not how nuclear plants work. Nuclear plants can definitely be turned back on.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:47
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Does the German language have a crisp one word espression for "Due to my unlimited arrogance, I am completely hosed. But I am still right, of course"?
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Mar 8, 2022 20:48
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https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1501248112005988357?cxt=HHwWioC-vYbNwNUpAAAA
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Mar 8, 2022 20:48
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I assume turning back on here would mean more doing maintenance on the structures, perhaps refueling them, and carefully reactivating them rather than literally flipping a switch. Which sounds like something that could be done in a few months.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:48
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Antigravitas posted:Your claim was that gas replaced a lot of nuclear. That is false. Gas took up some of the slack from a reduction in coal and nuclear at the same time, but not by much. Okay, gas and coal, I stand corrected, but either way not a great transition. And that's still a massive problem for the gas generation they do have. Kaal posted:Nuclear plants can definitely be turned back on. Not really, and this is where it gets REALLY sketchy: Germany renders their retired nuclear plants unusable by pouring acid into the core after defueled, rendering the core's steel useless. There are a few recently retired plans they can turn back on if they so chose to, but they likely will not.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:48
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With McDonald's closing 800 stores in russia, that gives Putin another 3,200 soldiers to send to western front.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:48
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Not to defend my countries dumbass politics especially in recent years (thanks, Merkel!), But most people I speak to and public sentiment politically is just as pro Ukraine and anti Russian as everyone's. Our government has already stated that we have enough gas saved to last the rest of the year even if this happens. The gamble is just to keep as much Russian gas flowing as possible while still hurting Russia as much as possible, which as it turns out is not working too great. Germany will not buckle under Putin and most people are prepared to live with some hardships, but after 2 years of corona the brand new government (made up of liberals, social democrats and greens) doesn't want to gently caress up people's lives any more than necessary, which is, well, naive but at least understandable. Also as a renewable energy engineer I agree that shutting off the nuclear power plants without replacements was a dumb move, but they're not gonna be reactivated in any timely fashion and nuclear is not the easy fix most goons tend to think it is. But that's for another thread!
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Mar 8, 2022 20:49
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Son of Rodney posted:Also as a renewable energy engineer I agree that shutting off the nuclear power plants without replacements was a dumb move, but they're not gonna be reactivated in any timely fashion and nuclear is not the easy fix most goons tend to think it is. But that's for another thread! Shutting them off at all was a dumb move as they double down on coal. Its really the greatest irony of people upholding Germany as some renewables success.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:51
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I've been out of the loop - does Russia now have full control over Mariupol? Kharkiv fortunately still seems to be holding out, though in the south Russia's been advancing more than I would have liked.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:52
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bad_fmr posted:Does the German language have a crisp one word espression for "Due to my unlimited arrogance, I am completely hosed. But I am still right, of course"? According to Google translate the "me sowing/me reaping" meme translates to: Me Säen: ha ha ha ha das ist genial Ich ernte: was zum Teufel ist die Scheiße
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Mar 8, 2022 20:52
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CommieGIR posted:Not really, and this is where it gets REALLY sketchy: Germany renders their retired nuclear plants unusable by pouring acid into the core after defueled, rendering the core's steel useless. Uh, why? Is there an actual reason or is this some scorched earth poo poo?
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Mar 8, 2022 20:52
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Morrow posted:The thing is, China is asking themselves if Russia is worth having as a junior partner/client/vassal right now, because China wants to take over the global system, not get frozen out of it. Russia has vast resource reserves. So historically that answer has been categorically "yes."
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Mar 8, 2022 20:52
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The wildest claims keep getting thrown around and it's hard in other places to find the appropriate pushback on poorly sourced claims. Did Ukraine sink the Vasily Bykov?
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Mar 8, 2022 20:52
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Phlegmish posted:I've been out of the loop - does Russia now have full control over Mariupol? Kharkiv fortunately still seems to be holding out, though in the south Russia's been advancing more than I would have liked. Mariupol holds strong. It is being starved out though.
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Mar 8, 2022 20:53
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How much of this natural gas no longer being shipped out can instead be rerouted to the Russian war effort? Would it relieve stress elsewhere or is there a bottleneck to its benefit? Obviously the surplus oil can be refined into fuel for the vehicles (even if it has a hard time getting to the front line). But what about refinery capacity? Just shut/taper wells for the time being? Fuel does have a shelf life... Missing Name fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Mar 8, 2022 |
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Mar 8, 2022 20:53
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