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There's a pretty neat and clear Fata Morgana illusion in that ship sinking tweet.KitConstantine posted:https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1501580160046448644?t=_VbnEivlgNdAYv-JNY6kkQ&s=19
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Mar 9, 2022 17:19
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Doesn’t look like an admission of an American bioweapons lab programme running in Ukraine, which you implied. They're not any ~biological research labs~, those ones are working in collaboration with The U.S. Department of Defense’s Biological Threat Reduction Program https://ua.usembassy.gov/embassy/kyiv/sections-offices/defense-threat-reduction-office/biological-threat-reduction-program/ So they probably have some nasty virus samples in them, even if they have nothing to do with bioweapons program. Remember Powell's anthrax vial WMD? That's just a cattle disease, could as well be in those labs too.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:20
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Vahakyla posted:Really cool and all but what does this have to do with the matter at hand: Russian tanks coming down the streets of a people wanting to be free? Nothing? I was addressing the claim that being anti-war was the same as being a "tankie"
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Mar 9, 2022 17:20
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KitConstantine posted:Ukrainian Navy confirmed that they sank a russian boat. Different name though - the Ivan Bykov rather than Vasily Bykov. The guy tweeting this news can't even get the name right. It's Vasily Bykov in the article that he is referring to not Ivan.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:21
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FishBulbia posted:NATO will step in if Russia attacks a NATO country. That's it. They're not going to unilaterally declare war on Russia in response to an invasion of a non-ally. alex314 posted:That's a good point. Russia is well within their power to take all the land between Donetsk and Odesa in the next couple weeks and entrench themselves, then retreat from Kiyv and Kharkiv and just go "well, gently caress you, we're not moving, want to stop hostilities for good or we're going North/South Korea route?"
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Mar 9, 2022 17:21
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I have been similarly unimpressed (as a member) with the DSA's position that sanctions are universally bad considering there is literally a BDS working group in the DSA. That's what you get when your org opposes demcent I guess.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:22
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His Divine Shadow posted:Good reasons for countries to support domestic agriculture in order to be less reliant on external food sources. Yeah I guess all the poor countries that are about to starve due to the war and sanctions should just magically transform their entire system of agriculture overnight to pull themselves up by their bootstraps.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:23
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KitConstantine posted:
People have to understand that Russia is known for targeting hospitals. They have used UN hospital lists in Syria as a target list of exactly what to bomb. This is nothing new.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:23
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Russians appear to have deliberately targeted a children's and maternity hospital in Mariupol. Video of aftermath only, no apparent injuries, but video shows civilians walking through bombed out area
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PerilPastry posted:Maybe as a plan B? Isn't the consensus among military analysts that they're going after Kiyv and are planning on going full Aleppo on it if Zelensky doesn't come to the negotiation table hat in hand? I'm not sure Russian leadership has accepted Plan B yet, because it means the end of the grand geopolitical goal getting the band back together. It's realistic, but we're going to see some bloody attempts to beat Kyiv and Kharkiv into submission at the very least.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:24
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alex314 posted:Not much modern USSR based SAM systems in EE left. I guess some countries could spare missiles, but we're talking issues of national security there. It's not like they can replace the missiles locally, or ask China for some OTC analogues. If Poland sends SA-6 and SA-8 then there's no short-range air defense left. It's not like with USA that has a fuckton of Patriots to go around. Actually, US is deploying 2 Patriot systems to Poland… alex314 posted:They sacked the dude that was vocally for the invasion, and officially support their staff that works from Ukraine. Also gave some money to charity working there. I see no reason to avoid them. Man, it’s like Dota but with literal and proverbial tankies. There are some very real reasons to avoid it, that I may or may not confirm from personal experience.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:24
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Fray posted:Am I the only one thinking that SAM systems and drones would be of much better use to Ukraine than jets that carry heavy support requirements and are harder to hide from missile attack. I was thinking the same thing. How many turkish drones, SAM systems can you get for the money/ground crew you need to have these migs in the air? And it seems to be politically a lot less dangerous and has less risk of pulling NATO into the war?
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Mar 9, 2022 17:25
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PerilPastry posted:This is true. Every action and statement put out by NATO confirms that their chief aim is to ensure the war does not spread beyond Ukraine to involve member nations. Yeah, but it was always drilled that Soviet military will flow the forces where there's least resistance, and so far it looks like southern push is the most successful one. Establishing Novorossiya was one of the original goals of 2014 invasion, and it looks like the only goal that's within reasonable reach.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:25
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FishBulbia posted:That's not possible without attacking Belarus and Russia. S-400s have a 400km range. Against what, at what aspect, in what terrain, at what altitude? Can we stop with the breathless copy/pasting of Russian ad copy from Wikipedia like there isn't a billion factors that go into that number, not even counting the "Russia may be full of poo poo about it's capabilities given recent operational performance" angle. Just because the frictionless sphere model has a theoretical max range of 400km if fired in perfect conditions against something with the RCS of a 737 doesn't mean we just draw a 400km exclusion zone around them. If we're taking MIC press releases at face value the US also claims an S400 can't detect an F35 outside of 20NM. Jarmak fucked around with this message at 17:29 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 17:26
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KitConstantine posted:Ukrainian Navy confirmed that they sank a russian boat. Different name though - the Ivan Bykov rather than Vasily Bykov. Awesome tactic if true, yet another data point on how stupid and incompetent the Russians are. It's almost like there's some evolutionary force that drives towards democratic freedom, because you can't be an autocrat without corruption, and corruption saps your military capability.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:27
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Ola posted:It's almost like there's some evolutionary force that drives towards democratic freedom, because you can't be an autocrat without corruption, and corruption saps your military capability. Victor Davis Hanson, is that you?
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Mar 9, 2022 17:28
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Jarmak posted:Against what, at what aspect, in what terrain, at what altitude? https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1501281167210856449?t=zsNvGHu-P8D0Qlp1ZrLNBA&s=09 A "NFZ" isn't a real thing being considered by policy makers. It's mainly being pushed by fake news accounts. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 17:33
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Ola posted:Awesome tactic if true, yet another data point on how stupid and incompetent the Russians are. It's almost like there's some evolutionary force that drives towards democratic freedom, because you can't be an autocrat without corruption, and corruption saps your military capability. I think this sort of assertion of a selective pressure towards democracy is somewhat dangerous, because it paints them as an inevitable outcome.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:34
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People are angry at the DSA because of their first statement which didn’t mention Russia once and entirely blamed NATO. They’ve walked it back quite a bit.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:36
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Video showing the sheer scale of the bombardment of Kharkiv  https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1501587375423692801?t=OSaWWOr-wbyhmUfYqNmcuw&s=19 Somehow still under Ukrainian control
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Mar 9, 2022 17:37
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even if an S-400 has half that range it could still shoot down NATO planes over Kyiv. I guess NATO could try to maintain the airspace there as long as they accepted that most missions aren't coming back as they are not allowed to hit air defenses.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:39
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1501281167210856449?t=zsNvGHu-P8D0Qlp1ZrLNBA&s=09 What do you think that context-less tweet you just dumped without any commentary has to do with what I posted? If that's from the same source I was just reading you left out the context that he's talking about AA missile systems Russia has moved into Ukraine. So not 400km S400 shots.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:39
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Upgrade posted:People are angry at the DSA because of their first statement which didn’t mention Russia once and entirely blamed NATO. They’ve walked it back quite a bit. Lol, loving assholes.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:39
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Upgrade posted:People are angry at the DSA because of their first statement which didn’t mention Russia once and entirely blamed NATO. They’ve walked it back quite a bit. I think the last initial in DSA explains this; as American the things I can (ostensibly, imo not really) affect are American (and by extension) NATO decisions. I can’t yell at Russia loud enough to matter one whit. Talking to other Americans and complicating their understanding (in the good way, the way that your job is more complicated than laymen understand it to be) of world events is a good thing, I think,
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Mar 9, 2022 17:41
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There Bias Two posted:I think this sort of assertion of a selective pressure towards democracy is somewhat dangerous, because it paints them as an inevitable outcome. It would feel good for us, not for them, lets put it like that.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:42
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Ola posted:Awesome tactic if true, yet another data point on how stupid and incompetent the Russians are. It's almost like there's some evolutionary force that drives towards democratic freedom, because you can't be an autocrat without corruption, and corruption saps your military capability. It depends on how you define autocrat. Would one think that Cyrus the Great and Darius the Great were autocrats? They were certainly one-man shows but they were also supremely talented military commanders who were the heads of some of the greatest armies in history. There may have been some corruption, sure, but that was normally stamped out with impunity because the state was what mattered above all. Maybe I'm going back too far into history, and apologies if this is a derail. It's that I think it's more apt to think in modern terms I suppose, because corruption is certainly rife in modern autocracies. I think it's less the fact that it's just because autocracies exist doesn't mean that the arc of the political universe tends towards democratic freedom. As we've seen in the last decade, democratic freedom a pretty fragile thing and easily bent and broken by those who would be king. As There Bias Two noted, democracy isn't inevitable for any country. I would argue that it's much easier to slip back into autocracy than it is to create a fundamental charter of freedoms.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:43
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Jarmak posted:What do you think that context-less tweet you just dumped without any commentary has to do with what I posted? It's easy to get caught up in the fake news, but a no fly zone isn't a real thing. establishing air-superiority means destroying AD in Belarus and Russia. This is why NATO has been extremely clear that such stories are fake.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:43
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Earlier mentioned but appears now they'll go through with it. No reason to have a cold grill at McD's just sitting there. https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1501573193412366339
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Mar 9, 2022 17:44
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BigRed0427 posted:Lol, loving assholes. For a group that is supposed to be the practical socialists the DSA sure go out of their way to be impractical.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:45
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selec posted:I think the last initial in DSA explains this; as American the things I can (ostensibly, imo not really) affect are American (and by extension) NATO decisions. I can’t yell at Russia loud enough to matter one whit. Talking to other Americans and complicating their understanding (in the good way, the way that your job is more complicated than laymen understand it to be) of world events is a good thing, I think, This still implies any bit of this was NATOs fault.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:46
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the popes toes posted:How does one get conscripted in Russia? Is it a lottery? fool of sound posted:Yes, lottery of 18 to 27 year old men. They draft twice annually and conscripts serve a year. Every young male is drafted, there’s no lottery. There only are some exceptions, like if you have a serious medical condition, or a young child, or rich parents. KitConstantine posted:Ukrainian Navy confirmed that they sank a russian boat. Different name though - the Ivan Bykov rather than Vasily Bykov. There’s no Russian ship called Ivan Bykov. Black Sea Fleet has Vasiliy Bykov, and (a much larger, different type ship) Ivan Khurs.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:46
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the popes toes posted:Earlier mentioned but appears now they'll go through with it. No reason to have a cold grill at McD's just sitting there. I am all for nationalizations generally speaking, but in this context… Russia would be doubling down on its global isolation and lack of institutional investment from outside the country for a generation or more.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:46
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the popes toes posted:Earlier mentioned but appears now they'll go through with it. No reason to have a cold grill at McD's just sitting there. Once again 
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Mar 9, 2022 17:46
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 Also, please shut up about DSA and take it to USPol.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:47
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the popes toes posted:Earlier mentioned but appears now they'll go through with it. No reason to have a cold grill at McD's just sitting there. Ok, but I ask again, with what money? If you're importing a lot of food, how are you going to keep McDonalds or Starbucks open? It's not like Russia is a great producer of coffee beans (I don't know about beef but I assume they could probably get it from China)
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Mar 9, 2022 17:48
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Seth Pecksniff posted:It depends on how you define autocrat. Would one think that Cyrus the Great and Darius the Great were autocrats? They were certainly one-man shows but they were also supremely talented military commanders who were the heads of some of the greatest armies in history. There may have been some corruption, sure, but that was normally stamped out with impunity because the state was what mattered above all. The democracy is militarily superior to autocracy argument usually starts with hero Greeks beating up decadent Persians, which imo shows how it's meant to be a feel good story about Western supremacy as much as it is about democracy vs autocracy.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:48
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Every young male is drafted, there’s no lottery. There only are some exceptions, like if you have a serious medical condition, or a young child, or rich parents. This ship has been burning over the horizon of Odessa for a few days at least. Initially people thought it was a tanker that got hit. My guess is its either that or one of the small swift boat like craft that both Ukr and Ru have in the black sea.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:48
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Vahakyla posted:Really cool and all but what does this have to do with the matter at hand: Russian tanks coming down the streets of a people wanting to be free? I'd say thats our job (EU) and not yours. Being to dependant on you is what put us in this mess in the first place.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:48
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As far as international intervention goes, I think we've seen all there's going to be short of a massive world ending escalation. Western arms and intel will flow into Ukraine, sanctions will continue to be added in every possible way people can think of, but all the big stuff is basically done already. It's now just a case of seeing what actual impact it has over a longer time frame. Can Ukraine hold on? What state is the Russian military actually in? How quickly will Russia collapse due to sanctions? These are the questions that matter. "What will the west do next?" isn't really up there.
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Mar 9, 2022 17:49
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Phlegmish posted:Once again Honestly can't wait to try Russian McDonalds (no relation to American company) in 15 years once this has all blown over
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Mar 9, 2022 17:49
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https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1497670934244872199?s=20&t=nD2Y-PlCpbnYIKbejKC3Kw I haven't cross-verified all of the sources that went into these maps, but these are some good operational maps that seem to largely match OSINT that I've been following. It probably can't be understated how important it is for Ukraine to get reserve formations mobilized and moved to the front as soon as possible. Putting Ukrainian Foreign Legion forces northwest of Kiev, if accurate, is interesting. When fighting ISIS, the Peshmerga and other Kurdish groups tended to keep Westerners in support roles: they wanted to avoid dead or captured Westerners on media for fear of losing Western popular support. Northwest Kiev will obviously be in the thick of things.
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