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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:cawthorn is one of those politicans who has no real principles themselves, but lusts for attention and power, and recognizes that you can get both by running as a republican in a dying rural area while making being an incredibly obnoxious blowhard your campaign strategy He's also an alleged rapist and abuser so you know, rising star in the GOP 
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Mar 10, 2022 20:01
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https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1501825074789236740 Disregarding that it's a bit silly to delineate this clearly between ethnicities (many people are of mixed heritage), this is a much higher number of (primarily) ethnic Russians than I expected. Putin really is making drat sure that any fuzzy outlines in the Ukrainian national identity are erased. If any of the survivors of this barbaric siege previously held ambivalent feelings about their national identity, I suspect a lot of them will have a changed perspective on the other side. I really hope (and assuming this eventually ends with sovereign, non-totalitarian on both sides of the Ukrainian border) that they somehow all manage to find a way to not hate each other for generations. Sweden and Denmark are (as far as I know) the two countries with the highest number of historical wars against each other, we did a fair bit of genocide on each other, and today we're reasonably well behaved towards each other. So it is possible to mend the wounds. Then again, the Balkans show it doesn't always work itself out in a couple of hundred years.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:02
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mobby_6kl posted:Some of them are saying it's a decoy. I dunno, would a decoy explode like that or is that just the warhead? That's not just the warhead. There are very clear secondary explosions. Of course, it could still be a decoy if for some insane reason the Russians are putting explosives in their decoys. (... I wouldn't bet on it.)
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Mar 10, 2022 20:05
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TheRat posted:Am I understanding it right that they only lost two vehicles in that inferno? Looks like it, plus a lot of dead & wounded.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:11
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Have Some Flowers! posted:I think one of the most surprising parts about all of this is that it all feels like such an unforced error on Putin's part. He was winning - America was/is eating itself alive in Russian disinformation and was close to withdrawing from NATO or fatally undermining it. Europe was settling in for more dependence on Russian energy exports. I don't recall if I've shared my thoughts in this specific topic before, but my view on Putin from years of tracking his moves and their consequences is that of an opportunist maximalist without an ounce of long-term strategic acumen. This makes him unpredictably dangerous from a geopol perspective as he plays the shortest good hand he has as hard as he can, and until now he's had a good record of chaining together successes into something resembling strategic geopolitical victories, but a Big War requires a sort of insight he simply hasn't really demonstrated through his career. In this situation, I was fairly sure the invasion would happen as far back as November because from his perspective he had a good hand, and that's all he traditionally needs to commit (granted, he exceeded my expectations of how hard he'd play it), but he hosed up and every advantage he thought he had flipped around. As to why risk the big move in the first place, there were some elements of a desperation play here I could see since the Russian situation was as good as it could get an would probably worsen in the future (primarily, if Ukraine continued to advanced their military capabilities then a kinetic intervention in the future would only get costlier), but I also believe he wanted this to be his Legacy Project: upend the Rules Based International Order, beat back NATO expansion, win a Big War with the reformed military, make the map bigger to restore ~Historic Russia~. The mask-off aggressive rhetoric he used to justify it, which throws away his previously carefully calculated ambiguity in public appearances, is consistent with that.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:13
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KitConstantine posted:A can of beans is around 450 grams. So they get a little over half a can of beans each. Per day. I would imagine de-mobbing these guys presents a devilish proposition. A returning force of close to 200,000, all with grievances, all feeling mistreated, lied to, thrown naked into a furnace. It will have an impact on Russian civil society. Sure, initially these abandoned guys will get, "You loving lost to nekulturny farmers?" from the older crowd. But their stories will infiltrate society in ways pernicious to Putin. I'm not sure he wants them back, honestly.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:13
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Just Another Lurker posted:Looks like it, plus a lot of dead & wounded. Yep, they got a quick barrage of artillery. The tanks were mostly fine as you'd expect, but I have a feeling at lot of the dismounted infantry were... not.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:17
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It doesn't matter that Madison Cawthorne was married to a Russian asset or not. He still shills for the Russian government for the same reason lots of Republicans do, which is that hes a hardcore right wing Nazi and Russia is the leader of the right wing world these days.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:18
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ZombieLenin posted:You are imaging the Russian Armed forces, probably because of the Cold War perceptions mixed with pre Russo-Ukrainian war faulty analysis of Russian capabilities, are something like the American military. I think the US has as much corruption in it's military but different corruption priorities. We will spend 1000x the money it should actually cost to bribe senators and create defense contract billionaires to create something kind of lovely that actually works, or we will overbuild and maintain 100x the amount of something we need to keep up elaborate defense contractor subscription and maintenance plans. At the end of the chain we still are worried about being effective. The grift manages to become 90% of the process without destroying it completely. If US tank battalions were deployed and it turned out Fort Bragg's commander had taken bribes to sell all of the munitions to mexican cartels and then the tanks that don't seize up run out of gas because the resupply convoy broke down due to lack of paid for parts and maintenance which causes the tanks to be destroyed because an entire platoon of defensive soldiers only existed on paper to get government funding it would be the same. We are more likely to spend a trillion dollars over designing a lovely overly complicated encrypted communications device that should have cost ten million that requires special training and fleetwide tank upgrades once it's rolled out while Russia is more likely to have someone sign off that the new encrypted communication devices were developed or purchased then go into battle with cellphones velcroed to the dash. Both prioritize generating yachts for the corrupt officials and politicians involved but have completely different standards.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:21
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What is happening in the right-wing media ecosystem that leads him to say the Ukrainian government is "woke"? That's bizarre.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:22
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Sax Mortar posted:My favorite woke ideology is "we should be allowed to exist" tbf this actually is the essence of much 'woke ideology' in a very real way
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Mar 10, 2022 20:23
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PederP posted:https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1501825074789236740 That's an interesting little tidbit. But to be fair that's only true because all of those wars were relatively short, while for example China has continuously clashed with Vietnam for literally millennia. But on the other hand I guess defining those as "China" and "Vietnam" would be a bit inaccurate for those periods.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:26
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People were convinced Hitler was a strategic genius from the mid-30's until around 1940 when it became apparent that he was actually just a compulsive risk taker. It turns out you can get away with a lot when you kinda want a war and the people you are opposing really don't, right up until you try that trick against someone who decides to fight.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:26
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DutchDupe posted:What is happening in the right-wing media ecosystem that leads him to say the Ukrainian government is "woke"? That's bizarre. The actual idea, inasmuch as there is one, is that Ukraine is attached to "the West" and the West is the "woke power" as opposed to Russia's staunch traditionalism (read: anti-LGBT policies). It's an extremely ugly notion.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:26
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DutchDupe posted:What is happening in the right-wing media ecosystem that leads him to say the Ukrainian government is "woke"? That's bizarre. He barely has 2 brain cells to rub together so he defaults to whining about things being woke. Cawthorn is a dumb bag of poo poo. It hurts to read the stupid stuff he says.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:27
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DutchDupe posted:What is happening in the right-wing media ecosystem that leads him to say the Ukrainian government is "woke"? That's bizarre. its a meaningless snarl word, like "CRT". republican voters hate this word and whatever it vaguely means so republican politicans call things "woke" when they want their constituents to be upset about something because cawthorn has no guiding principles around which to build a constituency and does not actually do his job of sitting on committee and advancing legislation, his best option for continuing to grow as a politician is just by staying in the spotlight by saying meaningless but controversial things Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 20:30 on Mar 10, 2022 |
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Mar 10, 2022 20:27
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DutchDupe posted:What is happening in the right-wing media ecosystem that leads him to say the Ukrainian government is "woke"? That's bizarre. They all have Brain Problems Long answer: Tucker Carlson, Fox News, and much of the GOP was very Pro Russia as of late, especially with Trump's influence. Now that Putin blew up all their funding and troll farms the GOP is trying to do an about face on Russia except for the few probably compromised hold-outs, and they can't say that the Ukranian government is full of Nazis because that only works on Tankies, and right wingers love Nazis So their messaging right now is all sorts of confused and "Woke" has become their vague buzzword thanks to Tim Pool / Tucker Carlson spreading it about the "woke mob" (IE Popular policies to the majority) for anything they dislike and is not right wing Also Cawthorne in particular is a massive loving idiot and the older GOP would very much like to be rid of him and MTG and Boebart, so they didn't get the Rubio memo of being hard on Russia again
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Mar 10, 2022 20:29
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Republicans think it's "woke" to not take horse dewormer when you get covid.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:30
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Rectal Death Adept posted:I think the US has as much corruption in it's military but different corruption priorities. Can confirm. I remember looking up the SSN of a 45 degree aluminum pipe joint for the auxiliary power unit. It cost $2,000 for about $60 worth of metal.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:30
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India WHY. https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1502001022301970432?t=yWnWeDvbuskQ-3HzBG47WA&s=19 Article: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-seeks-answers-india-after-crash-mystery-flying-object-2022-03-10/ NOT the time
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Mar 10, 2022 20:31
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DutchDupe posted:What is happening in the right-wing media ecosystem that leads him to say the Ukrainian government is "woke"? That's bizarre. Because a Democratic President is in charge while this is happening so they want the side he's supporting to lose and they want their suckling pigs to be angry if the side he's supporting wins. That's it, that's the entire thought.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:31
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KitConstantine posted:India WHY. Sure, why not
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Mar 10, 2022 20:32
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Tesseraction posted:Do you mean the one he married in 2020 and who left him in 2021? Makes me wonder if she made an embarrassing video of him doing... something... with her.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:33
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By the way, if you speak French or German: Arte is doing a lot of good work covering not just the conflict, but a lot of the context. They are also uploading a few of their documentaries with English subtitles, but by far not all of them.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:34
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KitConstantine posted:India WHY. Oof of all the times to do a failed missile test into the territory of a nation that doesn't like you...
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Mar 10, 2022 20:34
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KitConstantine posted:India WHY. Modi saw Russia becoming a hermit kingdom and getting hosed up, and went "how can I get me some of that?!"
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Mar 10, 2022 20:36
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Deteriorata posted:Russia needs to get their poo poo together in the next week or so or they will effectively lose their ability to fight offensively. Their losses are quite unsustainable. the ability to pursue occupation of Ukraine in the medium term, that will supposedly come about, now requires an assumption that the institution that revealed itself to be so incomparably unequipped and incompetent for actual warfare will spontaneously apply reform strong enough to unfuck the situation they created. So I don't think occupation will be successful. But the ability to invade and displace Ukrainians could still default to the question of if putin is willing to throw his own troops in a meatgrinder to forestall the appearance of weakness. So things still aren't great for Ukrainians... but they're even worse for russian soldiers.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:38
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KitConstantine posted:Okay, so they're only serving a tenth of the dudes they have using those 6 tons - one part of the front. That's 270 grams! Wow! It makes a lot more sense to calculate the other way. A BTG has about 800 dudes, consuming at least 6 lbs a day (rough MRE weight). So that's like two or three BTGs worth of food being supplied, out of the what, 115 in theater? Hmm.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:41
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Murgos posted:Unroll of the thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500301348780199937.html It has been confirmed by Bellingcat's Christo Grozev.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:41
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Staluigi posted:But the ability to invade and displace Ukrainians could still default to the question of if putin is willing to throw his own troops in a meatgrinder to forestall the appearance of weakness. at this point even the 'meatgrinder' may not be an option, both russia and ukraine have fairly equivalent force levels as ukraine is able to spin up and deploy their massive reserve forces. ukraine also has better supply lines and an open source of supply/money from the west which russia can't interdict. on top of that, ukraine has the morale high ground - ukrainian soldiers are motivated by national defense and revenge, where russian soldiers are motivated by flimsy nationalism, a sense of duty, or threats of reprisal if they do not fight
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Mar 10, 2022 20:42
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:My grandmother-in-law's (babushka-in-law's? 
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Mar 10, 2022 20:42
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) neighbours back in Altay Kray just learned their kid got killed. A week ago. poo poo sucks like I can't imagine. Thank god there are no conscripts being sent to Ukraine.
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:It makes a lot more sense to calculate the other way. A BTG has about 800 dudes, consuming at least 6 lbs a day (rough MRE weight). So that's like two or three BTGs worth of food being supplied, out of the what, 115 in theater? Hmm. We've been over this. There's so many ways that simple math doesn't support this invasion.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:43
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Lighter note - new entry in the Ukrainians trolling Russians saga https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1501992242562711558?t=f8CptPTZ3XSmqIzCN_4M2A&s=19 Though I wouldn't wanna be Shoigu if that letter gets too much press Also the Ukrainian Defense Minister post mentioned above: https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1501949185175654412?t=gFwMWif_AwKEranc4ZEp7Q&s=19 He posts like a Facebook mom, so many emojis 
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Mar 10, 2022 20:43
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:at this point even the 'meatgrinder' may not be an option, both russia and ukraine have fairly equivalent force levels as ukraine is able to spin up and deploy their massive reserve forces. ukraine also has better supply lines and an open source of supply/money from the west which russia can't interdict. on top of that, ukraine has the morale high ground - ukrainian soldiers are motivated by national defense and revenge, where russian soldiers are motivated by flimsy nationalism, a sense of duty, or threats of reprisal if they do not fight On top of that half the bachelor veterans in the western world are triangulating on Ukraine to hunt Russian conscripts for sport or something. Half good for Ukraine half the most dangerous game liveshow.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:44
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Imo russian soldiers abandon so much equipment in order to gtfo asap. I read somewhere that when a BTG loses half of their stuff it is considered unfit to fight and must regroup to be refitted.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:45
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Majorian posted:Sounds like woke Ukrainian fake news to me. yeah. my guess is MBS rebuffed them but UAE didn't. MBS is loving piece of poo poo inbred fuckstain and i am glad the US told him to suck poo poo(though not loudly or publicaly enough), the UAE is also hosed up rulers but much better then MBS.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:46
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Staluigi posted:So I don't think occupation will be successful. https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1501799561286856707 I guess city busting is a force multplier but one Russian conscript per 266 Ukrainians does seem optimistic. The rest of the twitter thread is pretty good.
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Mar 10, 2022 20:46
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:at this point even the 'meatgrinder' may not be an option, both russia and ukraine have fairly equivalent force levels as ukraine is able to spin up and deploy their massive reserve forces. ukraine also has better supply lines and an open source of supply/money from the west which russia can't interdict. on top of that, ukraine has the morale high ground - ukrainian soldiers are motivated by national defense and revenge, where russian soldiers are motivated by flimsy nationalism, a sense of duty, or threats of reprisal if they do not fight Can't Russia just pull a Sarajevo on every city that resists, for years if need be?
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Mar 10, 2022 20:47
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DutchDupe posted:Can't Russia just pull a Sarajevo on every city that resists, for years if need be? they certainly can try but there's no guarantee the army will stick around, or that russia will be able to afford bullets and food in a few months
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Mar 10, 2022 20:49
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DutchDupe posted:What is happening in the right-wing media ecosystem that leads him to say the Ukrainian government is "woke"? That's bizarre. 
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Mar 10, 2022 20:53
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