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Somaen posted:https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502207976286953476 Considering how people crossing from Belarus are treated they have more chance by simply switching sides and getting that promised Ukrainian citizenship..
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Mar 11, 2022 10:28
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502207704739233794?s=20&t=JUEJQp_-wJt7iMNiqtYsIw Putin looks kinda strange in this video. Like uncomfortable (or constipated).
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Mar 11, 2022 10:28
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Somaen posted:https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502207976286953476 Don't post NEXTA, it's very unreliable
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Mar 11, 2022 10:31
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Bringing in tens of thousands of foreign fighters doesn't seem like the sort of thing you'd need to do if things were going swimmingly.
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Mar 11, 2022 10:31
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fez_machine posted:Don't post NEXTA, it's very unreliable Is it wrong? No? Well okay then
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Mar 11, 2022 10:31
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gay picnic defence posted:Bringing in tens of thousands of foreign fighters doesn't seem like the sort of thing you'd need to do if things were going swimmingly. You wouldn't have to answer to anyone at home if they all died. I'm also guessing that if they're Russian-aligned from Syria they probably have a ton of experience in not being very nice.
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Mar 11, 2022 10:34
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gay picnic defence posted:Tanks seem pretty easy to kill these days too. And with an infantry screen (presumably with some ATGMs of their own) is tank on tank combat likely to occur? You see destroyed tanks and videos of them being taken down. You do not see videos where people cannot engage a tank (non-suicidally) because they lack heavy anti-tank (AT) weaponry. Tanks are vulnerable, but nowhere near as vulnerable as light vehicles. If infantry faces a main battle tank (MBT) without heavy AT or air support, they're generally in trouble. These "light vehicles with big guns" are a thing that pop out all the time and have been used extensively. Armies pivot away from them hard as soon as they can. Their problem is that they're vulnerable to stuff like LAWs, RPGs and other ATweapons. These light AT weapons are cheap and light - a modern M72, a simple anti-tank rocket tube, is about 3.5 kgs and is so cheap they hand them out like candy. RPG-7s and more modern AT-4s, both very common light AT weapons, weigh about 7 kgs. They also cost like what, $1000 a piece to produce. These are examples of common light weapons infantry uses to kill trucks, armoured personell carriers and other vehicles that are not that heavily armoured. These light AT things pretty much cannot really hurt main battle tanks except in optimal conditions, and even then the odds of success aren't that high. Infantry really needs heavier stuff explicitly designed to hurt MBTs. So, these Javelins people talk about? They cost about $180k. They weigh over 20 kilograms. The MBT LAW (NLAW) you also see pop up in the news? Cheaper weapon - only about $30k, and weighs about 12 kilograms. We have moved from stuff that is on the level of "give almost everyone 1-2 and it won't significantly hamper their overall combat capability" to "we need specialized soldiers and ammo carriers for one weapon system, and their combat effectiveness in other roles is reduced because they're draggin 12 kg of extra stuff". And they cost so much more. So if you make some sort of combat vehicle that is light and has a big gun you have to get the gun somewhere where it is usable, but if it's light enough it can be taken down with much cheaper and widespread weapons than a real tank. And once you count in crew training, logistics and supply you're basically risking a lot of money while you would probably get the job done better with just a tank. Theoretically, you could just park them at 2 kilometers and shoot poo poo, but that's not how war ever works. El Perkele fucked around with this message at 10:40 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 10:37
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Rinkles posted:Putin looks kinda strange in this video. Like uncomfortable (or constipated). He seems very nervous which is a good sign! Rinkles posted:Remarkably accurate predictions about the war so far, in this seemingly far-fetched and cynical op-ed. From April 2021. Former Russian MP Alexander Nevzorov, (also a journalist, publicist and director). I've posted about this before in the EE thread but Sokurov (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Sokurov), a liberal representative of "the president's council on human rights and development of civil society" predicted a war with Ukraine, the Russian controlled Caucasus and possibly Kazakhstan back in 2008: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYToDWUoS3M I don't think it was planned so far back, but as a government liberal he probably saw the vibes and the moods in the government offices He also made Putin very mad last year by publicly suggesting Russia should let go of the Caucasus (i.e. de-imperialise) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hH_wMIfQ5-o Somaen fucked around with this message at 10:42 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 10:39
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Ah yes, lets send these Middle Eastern guys to Ukraine in late winter without proper logistics support.
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Mar 11, 2022 10:39
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Dick Ripple posted:Ah yes, lets send these Middle Eastern guys to Ukraine in late winter without proper logistics support. Here's your complimentary ushanka comrade, good luck.
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Mar 11, 2022 10:47
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the popes toes posted:And number #62 on the list of stupid things is I found an old cassette tape with Tchaikovsky last night, good stuff actually.
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Mar 11, 2022 10:49
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Rinkles posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502207704739233794?s=20&t=JUEJQp_-wJt7iMNiqtYsIw He is in a strange posture, like he leans at the table to stop his right hand from shaking. There was a video of him meeting Lukashenka just before the war, where jis right hand was shaking strangely. Maybe the rumours of Parkinson's are true.
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Mar 11, 2022 10:50
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ik edit:  tank column getting partially blown uphttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tcUMsD4uO8 Retired US general suggesting NATO help Ukraine by 'Taking Putins eye off the ball' by threatening to retake Kaliningrad. Also the male reporters face when he is suggesting this. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 13:16 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 10:51
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Somaen posted:Is it wrong? No? Well okay then Do you have a corroborating source? Then post that instead!
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Mar 11, 2022 10:52
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TheRat posted:You wouldn't have to answer to anyone at home if they all died. I'm also guessing that if they're Russian-aligned from Syria they probably have a ton of experience in not being very nice. Yeah I can imagine it would get even more war crimey over there if a bunch of Assad's soldiers decided to head over to Ukraine. Not sure what Assad would think of losing a chunk of experienced troops though - maybe that's the price you pay for having Russia prop up your regime.
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Mar 11, 2022 10:53
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fez_machine posted:Do you have a corroborating source? Then post that instead! I read the original news in Russian and I already spend too much time looking for english translated links to post for this dumb forum full of tankies and genocide deniers, so if Nexta came out announcing exactly what Shoigu said I am just going to post that and not look for a more palatable source in english (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 11, 2022 10:57
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Ataxerxes posted:He is in a strange posture, like he leans at the table to stop his right hand from shaking. There was a video of him meeting Lukashenka just before the war, where jis right hand was shaking strangely. Maybe the rumours of Parkinson's are true. I know there's been rumours about Putins right hand before because he doesn't move it much while walking but the reason he doesn't move it much is because it's an old KGB thing that he's internalized, where you always got to keep your main hand close to your holster so you can pull out your gun quickly if needed. A lot of old KGB-guys walk like Putin because of this.
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Mar 11, 2022 10:57
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It is my feeling that Russian soldiers aren't super into letting Kadyrov's crew have their way in eastern Ukraine. Imagine how great for morale it would be to see a bunch of Syrians pillage regions that are at least 50% ethnic Russians, and share the same ethnicity, language and religion to Russian soldiers..
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Mar 11, 2022 10:59
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Rinkles posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502207704739233794?s=20&t=JUEJQp_-wJt7iMNiqtYsIw where do you find 16,000 middle eastern fighters worth fielding against a modern regular army in a conventional war? syria doesn't have anywhere near that many high-quality regular forces, and i find it impossible to believe that iran would want to be dragged into this conflict now that the fighting in syria has finally died down. i guess the idea is that even if syrian rank and file don't have much experience fighting a regular army, their urban combat experience will make up for it (which ignores that they were carried to victory by russian air supremacy, and took most major urban centers by siege, not assault)? the optics of it are kind of boggling. i still think this is russia's war to lose, but why do they need to supplement their own forces like this?
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Mar 11, 2022 11:00
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nexta sucks but it's also been floating around in the news for several days that Russia is trying to get basically everyone to come fight and a bunch of the rejections of those requests have been posted in the thread, too, so it's pretty clearly a thing.GhostofJohnMuir posted:where do you find 16,000 middle eastern fighters worth fielding against a modern regular army in a conventional war? syria doesn't have anywhere near that many high-quality regular forces, and i find it impossible to believe that iran would want to be dragged into this conflict now that the fighting in syria has finally died down. i guess the idea is that even if syrian rank and file don't have much experience fighting a regular army, their urban combat experience will make up for it (which ignores that they were carried to victory by russian air supremacy, and took most major urban centers by siege, not assault)? Primarily Iran, Hezbullah, Syria all have quite competent fighters with significant military experience and have worked operationally with Russia recently. That's not to say that all of them would actually send anyone. Of those, Syria almost definitely would, Iran could possibly be talked into it, but I think that is unlikely barring some really massive offers that are probably beyond the scope of what Russia can credibly offer at the moment, and Hezbullah conceivably might if Russia promised to give them enough weapons, but I also wouldn't really hold my breath there, either. Azerbaijan also has a bunch of forces with recent experience fighting a very similar kind of conflict, though generally the Syrian war probably is where the majority of the skills that would transfer over directly to this war would be found. There are also the rest of the former soviet states, but adding more languages and more command integration issues and more inexperienced people to the mix probably isn't a huge benefit. SAA isn't super competent, but they're very experienced and in particular are good at shelling cities and running supply lines through areas stuffed full of AT launchers and fighting comparatively lightly armed militia, so they'd certainly be useful. comedy option: taliban Russia is not popular among the taliban, to put it lightly. They'd be more likely to go help Ukraine Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 11:12 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 11:02
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:and took most major urban centers by siege Isn't that what the Russians have been setting up for/doing after their initial 'rush the king' strategy failed?
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Mar 11, 2022 11:02
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Somaen posted:I read the original news in Russian and I already spend too much time looking for english translated links to post for this dumb forum full of tankies and genocide deniers, so if Nexta came out announcing exactly what Shoigu said I am just going to post that and not look for a more palatable source in english Feel free to add Russian sources as well, the last couple of months bumped the speed I read cyrillic and understand Russian (learned for a couple of years) and Ukrainian (zero experience) a lot. If you've got energy two sentences of tl;dr would be amazing, otherwise we're all capable of using google translate. I imagine there's quite some people that would simply be completely unable to find anything in Russian.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:03
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gay picnic defence posted:Yeah I can imagine it would get even more war crimey over there if a bunch of Assad's soldiers decided to head over to Ukraine. It's going to end up mostly being "reconciled" rebels, sent to get them out of the country.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:04
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more twitter diarrhea from Rogozin https://twitter.com/Rogozin/status/1502208856218288138 I really wonder how someone like him ended up being head of Roscosmos
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Mar 11, 2022 11:07
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TheRat posted:Isn't that what the Russians have been setting up for/doing after their initial 'rush the king' strategy failed? Yeah, but they probably don't have the luxury of months to reduce a city to rubble while there is potential for unrest back home, their economy is burning to the ground, and they are losing 10% of their forces every fortnight.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:07
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I see no reason why Iran would help Russia here. They are probably gleeful to finish their deal and take Russia's place as an oil supplier.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:07
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alex314 posted:It is my feeling that Russian soldiers aren't super into letting Kadyrov's crew have their way in eastern Ukraine. Imagine how great for morale it would be to see a bunch of Syrians pillage regions that are at least 50% ethnic Russians, and share the same ethnicity, language and religion to Russian soldiers.. They will most likely (so probably not) give them their own AO (area of operations) so they do not interact or let the Russians see them doing there thing to Ukrainian civilians. This is also something I have not really thought of. Your average Russian probably is not to fond of Chechens, and they are seeing them tearing up brother slavs. What are the chances they just to decide to do a little green on blue? Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 11:15 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 11:08
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Dwesa posted:more twitter diarrhea from Rogozin This is how he ensures that he keeps his job
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Mar 11, 2022 11:09
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gay picnic defence posted:Tanks seem pretty easy to kill these days too. And with an infantry screen (presumably with some ATGMs of their own) is tank on tank combat likely to occur? The reasoning behind tanks is still pretty much the same. You need boots on the ground to take positions. Soldiers are vulnerable to armoured vehicles with accurate guns, so to protect soldiers from getting turned to giblets by autocannons or automatic grenade launchers, a tank sitting at standoff distance protects the infantry. Combined infantry, IFV, and tanks protect each other and engage hostile targets efficiently. If two spherical armies set up like this engage in a frictionless vacuum, the side that loses its tanks first will then rapidly lose its other armoured vehicles, and then its infantry. And tanks kill other tanks really well outside of the range of infantry-carried missiles. I guess the biggest problem with this is that you need space to set it up, and Russia is currently constrained by terrain even if they have the organisation to pull it off.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:09
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Dwesa posted:really wonder how someone like him ended up being head of Roscosmos He was overqualified for the armed services department so he took what he could get
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Mar 11, 2022 11:10
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:where do you find 16,000 middle eastern fighters worth fielding against a modern regular army in a conventional war? syria doesn't have anywhere near that many high-quality regular forces, and i find it impossible to believe that iran would want to be dragged into this conflict now that the fighting in syria has finally died down. i guess the idea is that even if syrian rank and file don't have much experience fighting a regular army, their urban combat experience will make up for it (which ignores that they were carried to victory by russian air supremacy, and took most major urban centers by siege, not assault)? You also need soldiers to do "anti-partisan duty", historically things that were done by professional warcriminals like Dirlewanger, ROA or NKVD. People that will go house to house and search for arms and round up suspects.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:10
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What happens when Russia's economy is completely gutted and they are all sad?
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Mar 11, 2022 11:10
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There's no way they're sending 16k middle eastern fighters to Ukraine, guys.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:12
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Lampsacus posted:What happens when Russia's economy is completely gutted and they are all sad? They rise up, kill Putin, go through a difficult period of reconciliation, establish a liberal democracy, becomes a trusted nation in a world more peaceful and better suited for a long, sustainable, happy future than ever.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:14
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Radical 90s Wizard posted:There's no way they're sending 16k middle eastern fighters to Ukraine, guys. At least not quickly. If this thing drags out for months or years that can and will probably happen.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:14
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TheRat posted:Isn't that what the Russians have been setting up for/doing after their initial 'rush the king' strategy failed? sure, but if that's accomplished in ukraine it'll be the same way it was in syria, air supremacy and an overwhelming firepower advantage. syrian fighters aren't in any position to help that happen
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Mar 11, 2022 11:14
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Sekenr posted:I see no reason why Iran would help Russia here. They are probably gleeful to finish their deal and take Russia's place as an oil supplier. I don't think there's anything Russia could offer Iran that would make it seem worth getting significantly involved, but they're probably the major middle eastern army (and related institutions) that would be particularly impactful. Realistically, I could see Russia getting some number of Syrians (and there would almost certainly be some kind of deal of 'you get two brigades of good units if you take 10 brigades of amnestied rebels and strap them into trucks to be drone bait' and depending on how desperate Russia is, Assad could be leaned on to probably get some number of hesbullah committed, who historically have been willing to send people if you are willing to send them missiles. Also there are some central asian republics Russia could probably get token offers of support from in exchange for enough goodies. Overall I share much of the skepticism about just what kind of international support is actually available to them. Sadly, the amnestied syrian rebels (who took deals of join the SAA and get amnesty for time spent as a rebel... if you don't conveniently end up machine gunned in a roadside driveby) getting sent over to drive trucks is not at all implausible. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 11:23 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 11:18
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Antigravitas posted:
You gotta bring some proof for that here "organisation" you claim the Russians have Trump fucked around with this message at 11:22 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 11:19
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:the optics of it are kind of boggling. i still think this is russia's war to lose, but why do they need to supplement their own forces like this? Maybe just to be able to point to a coalition of the willing type deal? Russia is a dictatorship with a lot of people in it, I can't imagine they'll be short of fighting age men if they want to throw more into the gauntlet.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:19
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I'm sure you could find some people that would join Russian foreign legion for a promise of citizenship, some cash and maybe share of spoils. There are people that believe in Russia, or panslavism, or are even so anti-USA/west that they will fight in a proxy war. You can also give prisoners in Russia a deal if they want to fight, should also bring thousands. Only thing is training those dudes will take at least weeks, and will require a core of professionals so the unit is of any use.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:21
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