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the popes toes posted:So they got another yacht belonging to some joker named Melnichenko. Boat was sitting in Trieste. https://twitter.com/contractorwolf/status/1502494257642360833/photo/1
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Mar 12, 2022 09:05
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That boat is massive...no wonder they cost like a billion dollars
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Mar 12, 2022 09:07
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Think I saw Palladium at the harbor in Cabo. Guy said it was some russian oligarch who would rent it out for a week for 100k
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Mar 12, 2022 09:11
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ImpAtom posted:A statement doesn't but it will increase tensions and most importantly will be 100% meaningless. Because at the end of the day it isn't going to change anything because there is a difference between the different powers. There probably isn't a way to credibly guarantee Russia's borders, so an outright invasion would of course be out of the question. Any intervention by NATO forces would be a massive escalation, but the scale and scope of that deployment would not per se trigger nuclear war. I also think that you're almost certainly right that, if push came to shove, NATO would blink. But I do think that certain NATO countries, particularly the US, can absolutely look dumb enough to risk nuclear war. Or at least, appear to have politicians and populations willing to risk it. Also serving as a signal that, by willing to bluff to that irresponsible degree, commitments to current/additional sanctions and diplomatic isolation are quite strong. Re: "the good," I meant in the sense of the result of reducing the risk of massively increased civilian death from nuclear weapons/bioweapons, not as a label for the actions themselves. To the extent that all superpower actions are undertaken amorally, good outcomes are the best one can ask for.
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Mar 12, 2022 09:13
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the popes toes posted:It's a really big sailboat, the biggest. They'd really put some sails on that? I had to really stare at it to even make a guess they were going for that. Seriously, when I was scrolling that picture across my screen here the first time, I thought I was looking at three Waterpiks.
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Mar 12, 2022 09:19
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The Lone Badger posted:At a certain point you just have to concede that that's the ground's tank now. Like Poseidon's F35. As long as you water them and give them some fertilizer they'll sprout in spring and be in full bloom by late summer
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Mar 12, 2022 09:20
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Christ, I didn't realize that Rasputitsa was the Ukrainian word for quicksand e: fine, I'll add some substance. What do you think is going to happen to these tanks after the war? Gopniks will pose on them, sure. Will six bored dudes take a bottle of vodka and a thermos of tea and dig these out next winter? Take a torch and scrap them in situ when the ground is not a literal mire? What do you think the scrap value of a tank is? Gotta be some good components in there (electric motors, heavy bearings, LCD screens, pumps...) I wonder what kind of alloy the steel is. Something cheap like case hardened 4140? Something fancy like AR400? HolHorsejob fucked around with this message at 09:27 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 09:22
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slowdave posted:That boat is massive...no wonder they cost like a billion dollars According to the above chart that one was an absolute steal at 450 million! Oh and for anyone like me who was wondering what happens with the assets after they have been seized, the answer is not surprisingly, most likely long law suits to see who gets them! https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/russian-oligarch-yachts-this-is-what-happens-after-theyre-seized-.html
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Mar 12, 2022 09:22
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His Divine Shadow posted:One might cynically assume this being nice part was so that the finns would hold no favorable views of the past and wish to return to it. At least for a while to culturually sever ties to Sweden a bit before starting the russification. It was a strange time, made stranger by the differences between the various Tzars. Alexander I seemed to have the kind of "well, they aren't rebelling like Poland so let them mind their own business", Nicholas I was a tyrant but also his eyes were elsewhere, Alexanders II & III were rather good from the Finnish perspective and Nicholas II blew it all up. Another thing was that by the end of the Swedish rule over Finland everything important took place in Stockholm and Finland was the outback of the realm where people with talent, titles and money didn't want to be. When Russia took over you started having Russian nobility (even the Tzar family) spending their holidays here and in many other ways the atmosphere changed. I read an article where it was mentioned that after the 1918 Finnish Civil War the fanciest restaurants of Helsinki closed, not because of the war, but because the nobility of St.Petersburg was running for their lives and would no longer come to Helsinki for weekend breaks and spend money like mad. But yeah, while you can certainly make an academic argument that, on general terms, Finland benefited from being a Russian Grand Duchy in the 1800's what fond memories there might have been were suborned by the inconsistent tyranny of Nicholas II, whose Russification measures spurred Finnish efforts for independence. For contrast, when the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-78 broke out the Finnnish Guard unit of about 800 men was deployed and the people of Helsinki held a massive celebratory party for them and that war caused a big patriotic upsurge. By 1917 about 2000 Finnish volunteers had sneaked into Germany to fight against Russia and attempts to conscript Finns to the Russian army during WWI were so unpopular that the Russian authority agreed to scrap conscription in exchange for the Grand Duchy paying an extra tax (the so-called Soldier Millions).
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Mar 12, 2022 09:26
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HolHorsejob posted:e: fine, I'll add some substance. What do you think is going to happen to these tanks after the war? They will be deposited in the center of parks to draw fire in any subsequent future invasion.
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Mar 12, 2022 09:35
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HolHorsejob posted:Christ, I didn't realize that Rasputitsa was the Ukrainian word for quicksand The smart play is probably taking them to pieces now and selling components. Can't exactly sell a whole tank, and I assume whatever government is in control of Ukraine after this is over will take possession of anything still intact. Even if they take the 125mm gun off, I doubt the civil authorities would approve of some farmer's new "tractor."
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Mar 12, 2022 09:39
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Those FSB analyst letters are inching closer to middlebrow Q territory by now: https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1502024319769088003?t=di5Md1m5UnyxltwKw_htvg&s=19 I'll not be surprised if they eventually turn out to be a psyop.
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Mar 12, 2022 09:42
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They should house Ukrainian refugees in those seized yachts, buildings, and apartments.
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Mar 12, 2022 09:44
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Revelation 2-13 posted:While I agree with the general sentiment vis-a-vis a US/nato statement, I think it’s crazy to suggests that Putin would end the world over Ukraine, unless we subscribe to him being completely deranged/insane now. In which case, from a risk perspective, everyone should be working 24/7 and focusing all their efforts on finding a way to get rid of him right this instant, because then a ww3 nuclear exchange could happen at any moment if he has as psychotic break. This is the salient point here. NATO actually holds all the leverage here but refuses to use it. Russia can only make threats because it’s conventional military has been exposed so badly. If you believe Putin, or at least those in the direct chain of command are not crazy enough to start MAD, then a lot of innocent lives can be saved by intervention. If you believe Putin IS crazy enough to start nuking poo poo, then having this fine line NATO is towing is meaningless, he could be set off by additional sanctions or weapons transfers or anything else. A pre-intervention declaration that NATO will not invade Russian territory may serve to prevent further escalation. Everyone seems to assume the second NATO downs a Russian plane, the nukes start flying which is not even close to the case. In many war games I’ve read, it often took many steps to begin to escalate to that point, and that was with the Soviets being in a far stronger position than Russia is now. There’s just a certain frustration I’m having with all of this, the West is so timid to actually challenge these dictators and ends up pissing away all of its leverage. I honestly wonder what the British, French, or Polish would feel like if Pearl Harbor never happened and America left them to rot in WW2. Even if Ukraine holds off the invasion, I believe the relationship with the West would be extremely frayed because of this.
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Mar 12, 2022 09:45
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a podcast for cats posted:Those FSB analyst letters are inching closer to middlebrow Q territory by now: Why should anyone find this race car driver credible again?
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Mar 12, 2022 09:49
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Rocko Bonaparte posted:They'd really put some sails on that? I had to really stare at it to even make a guess they were going for that. It’s mostly driven by gas turbines, the sails are there to make it the BIGGEST SAIL BOAT IN THE WORLD for ego purposes. I’ll try asking my Finca friends to see what happens now(that dry dock is mostly military so having it stuck means limited service for the Italian navy)
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Mar 12, 2022 09:51
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I was too lazy to go and read the original post by Osechkin on Facebook. I agree that the previous translations missed a fair amount of nuance.
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Mar 12, 2022 09:52
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I'm really seriously of the mind that NATO (and the US especially) are making the correct move by completely avoiding direct military conflict with russia. It's not about timidity, it's about not being geopolitical cowboys anymore and potentially making this much worse because direct conflict gives putin even the slightest hint of existential concern for his borders. You don't make bad moves just to feel like you're doing something.
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Mar 12, 2022 09:53
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HolHorsejob posted:What do you think is going to happen to these tanks after the war? Gopniks will pose on them, sure. Will six bored dudes take a bottle of vodka and a thermos of tea and dig these out next winter? Take a torch and scrap them in situ when the ground is not a literal mire? What do you think the scrap value of a tank is? Gotta be some good components in there (electric motors, heavy bearings, LCD screens, pumps...) I wonder what kind of alloy the steel is. Something cheap like case hardened 4140? Something fancy like AR400? They will probably put them up in like every town square, if it's anything like the Ardennes after the Battle of the Bulge (and including to today). Although now that I've written that and thought about it, in the Ardennes it's mostly American tanks that are still everywhere, I dunno what they did with the Nazi ones.
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Mar 12, 2022 09:55
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mightygerm posted:This is the salient point here. NATO actually holds all the leverage here but refuses to use it. Russia can only make threats because it’s conventional military has been exposed so badly. If you believe Putin, or at least those in the direct chain of command are not crazy enough to start MAD, then a lot of innocent lives can be saved by intervention. If you believe Putin IS crazy enough to start nuking poo poo, then having this fine line NATO is towing is meaningless, he could be set off by additional sanctions or weapons transfers or anything else. While sitting this out is a pretty pragmatic choice, and clearly demonstrates that NATO was never interested in invading Russia because now would be the perfect time to so it. Unfortunately this doest really matter because it was always just an excuse for Putin. I understand why they're behaving like that but it's extremely frustrating when I hear that my mom's friends are hiding in a basement in Bucha and cooking on bonfires outside because there's no electricity or heat for a week at least. Saladman posted:They will probably put them up in like every town square, if it's anything like the Ardennes after the Battle of the Bulge (and including to today). Although now that I've written that and thought about it, in the Ardennes it's mostly American tanks that are still everywhere, I dunno what they did with the Nazi ones.
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Mar 12, 2022 10:07
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Kavros posted:I'm really seriously of the mind that NATO (and the US especially) are making the correct move by completely avoiding direct military conflict with russia. It's not about timidity, it's about not being geopolitical cowboys anymore and potentially making this much worse because direct conflict gives putin even the slightest hint of existential concern for his borders. Everything looks smart when you are winning. Most people assumed Russia would cakewalk through this. If Ukraine were losing this war NATO would look weak and timid.
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Mar 12, 2022 10:09
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mightygerm posted:There’s just a certain frustration I’m having with all of this, the West is so timid to actually challenge these dictators and ends up pissing away all of its leverage. I honestly wonder what the British, French, or Polish would feel like if Pearl Harbor never happened and America left them to rot in WW2. Even if Ukraine holds off the invasion, I believe the relationship with the West would be extremely frayed because of this.
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Mar 12, 2022 10:10
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Nessus posted:There seems to be immense popular outpouring of support on a humanitarian and individual level in the West... and it isn't like NATO's doing nothing, those Javelins didn't sprout on trees. I imagine Ukraine in general understands the logic of MAD (individuals will have their own opinions and they might well sour if Russia gets out the nerve gas and NATO stays in this posture). Don't forget the massive intelligence and 3C support NATO is giving as well.
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Mar 12, 2022 10:15
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Maybe I missed it but has anyone seen any analysis/discussion of how easy it is to take a captured piece of equipment and turn it round for use on your side? I'd assume that a tank/bmp is pretty simple but what about complex stuff like an AA system?
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Mar 12, 2022 10:18
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Trump posted:Don't forget the massive intelligence and 3C support NATO is giving as well. Yeah this feels like basically cheating, especially when Russia's intelligence on that end appears to be rather poor. Having intelligence gathering planes that are not a valid target for Russia to shoot down is definitely paying dividends for Ukraine.
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Mar 12, 2022 10:30
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yaffle posted:Maybe I missed it but has anyone seen any analysis/discussion of how easy it is to take a captured piece of equipment and turn it round for use on your side? I'd assume that a tank/bmp is pretty simple but what about complex stuff like an AA system? Yeah I would have thought some FoF systems might limit targetting. But tech has changed a LOT since my day.
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Mar 12, 2022 10:34
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Kavros posted:I'm really seriously of the mind that NATO (and the US especially) are making the correct move by completely avoiding direct military conflict with russia. It's not about timidity, it's about not being geopolitical cowboys anymore and potentially making this much worse because direct conflict gives putin even the slightest hint of existential concern for his borders. As much as it sucks that Ukraine has to suffer through this until Putin gets bored/ousted they’re still better off than if NATO got involved directly and Russia started lobbing nukes.
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Mar 12, 2022 10:36
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yaffle posted:Maybe I missed it but has anyone seen any analysis/discussion of how easy it is to take a captured piece of equipment and turn it round for use on your side? I'd assume that a tank/bmp is pretty simple but what about complex stuff like an AA system? Probably not easy, last time I saw a tweet about captured Pantsir army said they are going to destroy it. Think someone said that US got their filthy hands on one in Libya, so you would think Ukraine could ask if they would send a manual or some helpful PoW could tell them how to operate them. Humphreys posted:Yeah I would have thought some FoF systems might limit targetting. But tech has changed a LOT since my day. Oh, didn't even think about that fancy stuff. Ukrainian farmers hacked John Deere firmware, maybe they could help? They have lots of gear to practice with.
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Mar 12, 2022 10:38
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https://imgur.com/a/BNvGUz7 I don’t see big police presence beside on the dock itself so I might fetch better photos soon
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Mar 12, 2022 10:39
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Deteriorata posted:Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. And a belated good morning to you.  
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Mar 12, 2022 10:43
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I think part of the trepidation of direct NATO intervention is in how it would escalate and likely lead back to worse outcomes. While Russia is killing a bunch of Ukranian civilians, the current war is clearly being fought with them wanting to take ownership of Ukraine and hold it, so they aren't razing it all to the ground. Should NATO forces be in Ukraine, it could escalate to a WW2 front style conflict, but contained to Ukraine where Putin can justify going all out, relying on getting domestic support by pointing to the NATO forces right on Russia's border. That wouldn't make it right, but it could well lead to more bloodshed as Russia starts flattening Ukraine with strikes from within their territory, knowing that NATO won't risk striking inside Russia itself.
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Mar 12, 2022 10:55
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Twincityhacker posted:The why I said diapers is because people have been passing around lists of "what companies still do busniess on Russia" so they can be boycotted, and Kimberly-Clark is on the list?. The sentence doesn't stand at all. That's not sanctions though. You are conflating sanctions with something else entirely. Stop calling them sanctions. And it's neither been banned for export. Having that as your leading example implies that it has been banned. I'm getting onto you because you're using very specific terminology to mean something entirely different and it's the sort of thing that gets misunderstandings started.
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Mar 12, 2022 11:17
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Boris Galerkin posted:Why should anyone find this race car driver credible again? For those who are just tuning in, the pedigree of the letters is this: 1) Russian human rights activist (gulagu net) with contacts and sources inside the Russian administration gets the first letter from a pre-existing FSB whistleblower, and posts it on Facebook. 2) Bellingcat ran the first letter past two of their FSB sources, who confirm that it seems to be genuine. 3) Russian race car driver (who's also connected to gulagu?) posts English translations on Twitter, and it blows up. 4) More letters appear from the same source, and get disseminated quickly. (Without vetting?) I haven't followed things more closely than that, and you might be able to find more details if you speak Russian. You can read all letters here: http://www.igorsushko.com/ My Le Carré-ish takeaway is, even if the first letter(s) are genuine, if the Russians did/do find the leak, there's a chance they will turn it into a disinfo psyop, rather than simply plugging it, to discredit all the genuine intel contained. 
Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 11:22
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Senor Tron posted:I think part of the trepidation of direct NATO intervention is in how it would escalate and likely lead back to worse outcomes. I agree with the hypothetical but it's not like there's any scenario of NATO intervention where you could restrain the fighting to Ukraine. And given the disparity of forces, that would make the war an existential threat if not to Russia then certainly to Putin himself; prompting a nuclear response. Which, of course, is why you're seeing a guarded NATO response with very specific guardrails as outlined by MikeC: MikeC posted:It isn't a complicated reason. It is a very simple reason. The West simply will not allow any on-ramp to a scenario in which there is even the chance of direct use of force between Russia vs NATO. Staging MiGs in NATO held airfields for Ukrainian pilots to pick up is one of those on-ramps. And the Ukrainians aren't stupid, they understand that. They are clearly articulated they understand NATO is now off the books. Hieronymous Alloy posted:Thing is right now they don't need to because what's being done right now seems to be "working," in the sense that Russia is on track to being absolutely broken without any additional escalation beyond where we are. You're even starting to see voices on Russian state TV acknowledge this exact dynamic, recognizing how continuing "the special operation" would deplete Russian power for very little gain https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177?s=20&t=44Xji5JOMDUSWsyybJpH_A PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 11:29 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 11:25
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russia will have _so_ much loving potash if this sort of cooperation keeps up, maybe they'll go even further and form a union state! ed: oh boy! https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825 the escalation aspect is bad, but i am a bit lol that the sensible continuation of this statement is "... and by golly if we could unfuck our poo poo and establish air superiority, maybe we'd even hit some of those targets!" Qtotonibudinibudet fucked around with this message at 11:59 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 11:54
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Boris Galerkin posted:Why should anyone find this race car driver credible again? He’s just translating materials published by a well respected Russian civil rights activist. Respected enough to be wanted by Russian government. The material is still to be taken with a grain of salt, but this isn’t some random car driver’s fanfic. Edit: Unless the anonymous source is a car driver. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 12:06 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 12:01
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Edit: Unless the anonymous source is a car driver. Taxi drivers are very well informed about these sort of things, or so they've informed me.  In other news the internet is still running pretty much fine in Russia despite two transit provides disconnecting. Turns out the Internets pretty reliant. Who would of thought. https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/03/why-russias-disconnection-from-the-internet-isnt-amounting-to-much/
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Mar 12, 2022 12:15
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Kchama posted:The sentence doesn't stand at all. That's not sanctions though. You are conflating sanctions with something else entirely. Stop calling them sanctions. And it's neither been banned for export. Having that as your leading example implies that it has been banned. I'm getting onto you because you're using very specific terminology to mean something entirely different and it's the sort of thing that gets misunderstandings started. Fine, the coca-cola concentrate and whatever other goods that their manfacturerers voulenterily withdrew from the Russian consumer market. Not banned from US import like oil, or sanctioned like Alrosa the diamond mining company. Since I have not been keeping up with the exact list of companies that have either stopped entirely or have hindered their own operations in Russia vounteraily other than a headline here or there, or what companies that have been sanctioned, I was concerned for my friend and their family who were not doing great before their national economy went into freefall. Drinking a coke and joking with my friend just brought it to the surface.
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Mar 12, 2022 12:16
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:ed: oh boy! https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825 So, when Russia is going to shoot down an airliner with a stinger? I'm still thinking they are going to release chemical weapons in Russia and then present a body that has obviously been dead for weeks in Zelenskyi t-shirt and NATO stickered phone as the perpetrator.
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Mar 12, 2022 12:16
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:
Honestly, it doesn't seem like news to me. Of course they'd consider arms shipments legitimate targets but it's not like they'll attack them until they've actually crossed the border and Ukrainian drivers have taken possession of them.
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Mar 12, 2022 12:18
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