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PederP posted:This is a perfect example of how insanely out-of-touch the Russian regime is with reality. They consider the EU, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, etc. 'countries orchestrated by the US'. I think the regime actually believes the US has client-state levels of control over these nations. It's insane and sadly also indicates that any kind of peaceful co-existence with this regime in the aftermath of the war is going to be a massive pain. It does explain why Putin is always so angry - as in his mind the US isn't just a dominant power, but actually controls most of the world. That people like Schröder can ride the corruption rodeo with these guys, well aware what paranoid poo poo they believe in, boggles the mind. I do kind of wish Western diplomats would retort a bit more sharply to such provocations, though. "Of course we recognize that convoys carrying military supplies for the Ukrainian armed forces are legitimate targets under the laws of war. In fact, we would encourage Russia to, in the future, target such convoys instead of maternity hospitals."
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Mar 12, 2022 17:49
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https://mobile.twitter.com/annmarie/status/1502686902419431433 Just lol
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Mar 12, 2022 17:51
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gently caress I was really hoping to get a good deal on some Sberbank shares first thing Monday morning, my diamond hands are getting itchy E: more like Sbermbank amirite cause their market cap just got jizzed up the wall
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Mar 12, 2022 17:55
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The real issue behind the 'we will strike arms shipments' statement is that it highlights the difference between Western and Russian politicians when making these kinds of statements. Every time Biden or Stoltenberg speaks it's to lay out crystal clear lines on what the US/NATO will/will not do (ie. no fighting in Ukraine, defend every inch of NATO soil). Ryabkov says 'arms convoys are legitimate targets' and leaves ambiguous whether he means in Ukraine or in transit to Ukraine. Now obviously Russia isn't going to conduct airstrikes into Poland... but they might. What if they send an Iskander to hit the border point, does that count? The point is that we make the mistake of providing clarity (to reassure domestic audiences) whereas Russia is quite happy to leave ambiguity over their willingness to escalate open in order to get us to constrain ourselves further.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:55
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A Buttery Pastry posted:I feel like this is just Putin assuming the US empire works the same as the USSR did. It's not like he's super far off in terms of actual geopolitical behavior for some states, and certain US politicians clearly also think it's how it works or should work, though it does makes one question what he thought Germany and France were doing not being part of the Iraq War. It also means he must consider Trump the biggest idiot of all time. Through these Putin-lenses Trump was ceding control of a whole slew of client-states due to being upset about their military spending and general misbehavior. With this mindset Trump must really seem not just dumb, but pathetic and unambitious. This also aligns with how Kremlin initially was said to view Trump (when he started gaining traction - at which point I believe they hadn't really invested into having any influence with him) as a loudmouth idiot. I reckon they felt like they'd won the lottery as events unfolded and he ended up in the White House.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:56
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:Realistically NATO (US F22's 15K's) are either airborne or seconds from it at any given time, any 4th gen Russian fighter that approaches the Polish border is monitored and crossing will be intercepted asap. Air defense systems will actively fire at anything crossing the Polish border and unless Russia decides to use their next gen missiles (which thus far they seem to have not been willing to do), poo poo isn't hitting it's target. If they do use their next gen missiles, NATO gets a chance to test it's effectiveness and if successful it would be catastrophic for Russia's projection of power. The only thing that's sort of  regarding air defenses is how the Ukrainian drone flew 700+km of NATO territory before dropping to the ground without being intercepted. I guess it'd be more obvious when looking at the border with Russia, rather than the middle of Ukraine, but still.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:01
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Russia has an advantage in direct fire artillery but it's not clear they're able to actually *use* all those extra guns due to logistics difficulties. Also artillery needs to have a target to point at and communications to transmit that target from spotters to the guns. The Russians do not seem to be doing very well at the communications part, and it’s unclear that Ukraine is giving them a big enough/fixed enough target to shoot at even if they manage to communicate a location. Ukrainian strategy appears to be to avoid Russian points of strength - artillery, in particular.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:05
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
About that - news from Kherson https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-kherson-peresliduvannia-zhurnalist/31749866.html quote:According to him, Russians have lists of activists who oppose war and occupation, or simply express their pro-Ukrainian position. They are also looking for those who photograph the movement of Russian equipment and pass information to Ukrainian security forces. Article link: https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-po...al-council.html
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Mar 12, 2022 18:05
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Ukrainian provincial, boorish and naive peasant farmers, led by Western puppet comedian have destroyed and stolen an estimated 5.1 billion dollars of Russian materiel.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:10
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Whew watch that can just fly down the road! Not even pretending it's gonna open at all next week https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1502689396293787653?t=NWzMVz_NJKHmTgc3jZYI2A&s=19
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Mar 12, 2022 18:12
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KitConstantine posted:Seems like Russian soldiers' morale may be getting a little shot in the arm. Or leg. Or back.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:19
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Yeah I'm not sure I see the point in posting pow videos as some sort of proof of anything. 1) That they keep making them is a real bad look for them, 2) You obviously can't trust a word of what's being said.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:22
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mmkay posted:The only thing that's sort of I really doubt it didn't get spotted. If they ID'd it they knew it wasn't a threat, and if they couldn't then there was a chance it was a pilot in distress or a defector ir something.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:23
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mmkay posted:The only thing that's sort of Based on my experiences with the Hungarian military (which is mainly through friends and family who served and currently serve in it) Its equally likely that no-one noticed the flying object or that they DID notice but pretended they did not. Our minister of foreign affairs announced that we detected and tracked the flying object, but deemed it harmless... so we didn't notify anyone. (This seem to confirm that no-one noticed the thing flying through Hungarian airspace lengthways for about 40 minutes.) He also added we had two more disturbances in our airspace on Friday, but our Gripens were there in minutes and found nothing. He closed the announcement saying that because there is a war just across our borders, our air force has to be level headed and calm about such things and the most important thing for them is to keep Hungarians safe, and avoid being dragged into the war. 
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Mar 12, 2022 18:25
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KitConstantine posted:Whew watch that can just fly down the road! Not even pretending it's gonna open at all next week  IIRC the russian index was blowing up just like everything else for the past couple of years and recovered quickly from the 2014 "incident" but this time poo poo might be serious. Regardless, I doubt the russian middle class has much investment in the stock market. Which is probably fine, it's the rich fucks who have any say in the policy anyway. TheDeadlyShoe posted:I really doubt it didn't get spotted. If they ID'd it they knew it wasn't a threat, and if they couldn't then there was a chance it was a pilot in distress or a defector ir something.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:26
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Ynglaur posted:I do kind of wish Western diplomats would retort a bit more sharply to such provocations, though. "Of course we recognize that convoys carrying military supplies for the Ukrainian armed forces are legitimate targets under the laws of war. In fact, we would encourage Russia to, in the future, target such convoys instead of maternity hospitals." No halfway-competent diplomat is going to encourage Russia to attack anything. It might seem like a clever zing, but the moment the Russians DO attack a supply convoy, suddenly you're on record as having told them to go right ahead with that, and now you need to do an embarrassing retraction and politely ask them to stop bringing it on.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:30
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the popes toes posted:Ukrainian provincial, boorish and naive peasant farmers, led by Western puppet comedian have destroyed and stolen an estimated 5.1 billion dollars of Russian materiel. Yeah those numbers have no bearing on reality. If it's the Ukrainian government releasing those numbers they risk losing credibility with their own forces.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:31
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Russia has an incredibly small middle class, between 14% and 30% depending on estimates, and it was hit hard by 2014 (shrinking by ~20%). The Russian government is perfectly happy to keep screwing them over to keep the economic maskirovka going another week.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:31
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I mean I think they have to open the stock market at some point, right? I can't really picture what real world effects happen when a market is closed indefinitely. I just think it's obvious at this point that when that money leaves the country it is never ever ever ever coming back.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:40
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cr0y posted:I mean I think they have to open the stock market at some point, right? I can't really picture what real world effects happen when a market is closed indefinitely. They don’t quite have to. They shouldn’t want to do that at some point, though.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:42
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Just saw this on imgur as russians in Germany protesting against Ukrainian refugees. There's no sound so I don't know, is it legit? https://i.imgur.com/lOVvASe.mp4 https://imgur.com/gallery/sP3Grj6 I kind of wish there were some here so I could go pick a fight with some vatinks.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:42
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cr0y posted:I mean I think they have to open the stock market at some point, right? I can't really picture what real world effects happen when a market is closed indefinitely. What does a stock market ultimately do? It let's you assess the value of privately owned companies and allows those companies to raise money for investment by selling stock shares. Russia can keep the market closed until it needs to do that again.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:45
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mobby_6kl posted:Just saw this on imgur as russians in Germany protesting against Ukrainian refugees. There's no sound so I don't know, is it legit? Probably. You can get two dozen people to show up to anything. Particularly if you pay (which Russians do all the time).
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Mar 12, 2022 18:47
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mobby_6kl posted:Just saw this on imgur as russians in Germany protesting against Ukrainian refugees. There's no sound so I don't know, is it legit? Given that there are reportedly 3.5 million Russian speakers in Germany, a couple dozen broke-brained boomers out of that number being pro-Putin is not surprising. If they work at the embassy (embassy staff in a country like Germany will be large) they can also be ordered to do this by the Russian gov't.
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Mar 12, 2022 18:50
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NTRabbit posted:If the Russians were capable of interdicting the arms convoys, they would have done it already Yeah. Interdicting a bunch of goobers tooling down side roads in pickups seems a tough proposition. This guy is so happy, it's like Christmas. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1502570747159527435?cxt=HHwWloCypcaImtopAAAA 
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Mar 12, 2022 18:56
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Failed Imagineer posted:gently caress I was really hoping to get a good deal on some Sberbank shares first thing Monday morning, my diamond hands are getting itchy I mean.. really? Bear in mind Russia may at any point state that any ownership of russian companies by non russians is void and simply requisition them. It's why their bonds are junk and why so many companies like BP simply ditched and abandoned their shares in russian companies.
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Mar 12, 2022 19:06
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Supply technical.
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Mar 12, 2022 19:06
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Sinteres posted:They obviously are legitimate military targets, the question is just "so what are you going to do about it?" Saying you are sending weapons stops them from doing more fake reports like the NATO laptop. If we didn't, or said nothing, they could slap on a FedEx sticker from Poland on a crate of grenades and shout Shennigans all over their propaganda machines. It's a 'military operation' not war.
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Mar 12, 2022 19:07
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Morrow posted:What does a stock market ultimately do? It let's you assess the value of privately owned companies and allows those companies to raise money for investment by selling stock shares. Russia can keep the market closed until it needs to do that again. It also plays an important role in attracting foreign currency and international investments. If you want to buy Russian stocks you need to pay for them in rubles, so you need to buy rubles with some yuan, rupees, pesos, etc. Keeping it closed indefinitely hampers any attempt to attract what little foreign currency they can get from non-exports. However, they might also *want* to avoid international investors (ie China, Middle-East, India, Indonesia) vacuuming up everything. It's better to get the nationalization and confiscation business out of the way before that, since current shareholders are likely mostly western.
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Mar 12, 2022 19:08
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Not necessarily, there seems to have been a lot of confusion in how various media have translated "casualties," perhaps missing that "Casualties" includes injuries. CBS News cited an estimate from a U.S. official of 5,000-6,000 Russian and 2,000-4,000 Ukrainian, which actually seems pretty reasonable to me, given what we know (admittedly, not much), typical ratios, etc. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-death-toll-invasion/ Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 19:16
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Fog of war and we don't really have good data. I'm just making the point that the Ukrainian numbers aren't necessarily outside the bounds of the range of possible truths given what we know right now.
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At least they stopped doing that bullshit where they only announce the closure for the upcoming day, as if there was any chance that they'd just open it the day after.
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Mar 12, 2022 19:20
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happyhippy posted:It's a 'military operation' not war. This is a good point, because this has implications for what exactly makes someone a co-combatant. In any case it’s a joke of a threat. The Russians still do not have air superiority of Ukraine, and they have been welcome to try to interdict these convoys once they’ve crossed the border since the first day of the conflict—that they haven’t is a testament to their inability to do so; and if they cannot interdict those convoys in Ukraine they sure has hell cannot do it over NATO states.
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Mar 12, 2022 19:29
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More maps just dropped. I think these two go well together for comparison https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1502686874393092097?t=wudUwRpfbI2Nj4wjeSKPTg&s=19 Same story: Russia is making better progress in the east and south, stalls and even reverses in the north, wait and see.
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Mar 12, 2022 19:33
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How much time, roughly will it take for Ukraine to arm and deploy all those new recruits, reservists, and foreign legionnaires? Is it safe to assume the longer this goes the better entrenched and stronger the Ukrainians get?
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Mar 12, 2022 19:38
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I mean it's fairly apparent that the plan was to defend kyiv and the west of ukraine by using the south to stall the Russian advance. If it was a good play, I'm not sure, but it's what's happening. Some might say defending the entrance from Crimea should of been a priority since that would be a location where there's only a couple of major crossings for vehicles to use and the Russian numbers would of become worthless.
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Mar 12, 2022 19:41
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Drone_Fragger posted:Some might say defending the entrance from Crimea should of been a priority since that would be a location where there's only a couple of major crossings for vehicles to use and the Russian numbers would of become worthless. There were substantial forces defending there. They got absolutely trashed in the first few days.
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Mar 12, 2022 19:47
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PederP posted:It also plays an important role in attracting foreign currency and international investments. If you want to buy Russian stocks you need to pay for them in rubles, so you need to buy rubles with some yuan, rupees, pesos, etc. Keeping it closed indefinitely hampers any attempt to attract what little foreign currency they can get from non-exports. However, they might also *want* to avoid international investors (ie China, Middle-East, India, Indonesia) vacuuming up everything. It's better to get the nationalization and confiscation business out of the way before that, since current shareholders are likely mostly western. How much does the stock market actually invest in the real economy, though? I don't know much about stocks, but my understanding is that only the IPO really sees money going directly to the company in question, and afterwards they'll only see more money if the company sells more of its shares, which comes with its own dangers if it allows someone to become a majority stakeholder. Isn't every other stock activity basically traders buying and selling from each other for arbitrage purposes without the money ever seeing anyone but the stock traders themselves, with the company itself only indirectly affected by the value of the shares they hold going up or down? Again, I know very little about financing and stocks, just wondering how much the stock market actually helps with foreign investments in the country.
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Mar 12, 2022 19:48
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I'm not sure how much this matters in all this, but the south is more prairie/steppe terrain. I'm guessing the ability to be sneaky with the relatively more common tree cover in the north matters quite a bit.
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Mar 12, 2022 19:55
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Grape posted:I'm not sure how much this matters in all this, but the south is more prairie/steppe terrain. I'm guessing the ability to be sneaky with the relatively more common tree cover in the north matters quite a bit. It's also drier, so the mud is not an all-consuming force.
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Kraftwerk posted:How much time, roughly will it take for Ukraine to arm and deploy all those new recruits, reservists, and foreign legionnaires? Recent reservists are probably already in the TDF. Less trained reservists, impossible to know what planned prep vs. wartime prep is. Also hard to know the effects continual air losses will have overall. Right now I'd imagine the goal of that reserve force doesn't go beyond "make occupation impossible and hit convoys". On the ground reporters on my twitter lists are talking about exceptionally heavy fire in the west; https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1502717987442286600 DOOMocrat fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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